business cycle detail report.shrikant rana

By:-

1. SHRIKANT RANA

FB/PGP/11-13/IIPM

INDIAN INSTITUE OF PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

AHMEDABAD

Financial Crisis Is a Man Made Catastrophe (Against The Motion)

“We are Riders not the Drivers “ NATIONAL ECONOMIC PLANNING

Financial Crisis Is a Man Made Catastrophe (Against The Motion) 2012

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

An Endeavour over a period can be successful only with the advice and support of all

wishers. We take this Opportunity to express our gratitude and appreciation to all those

who encouraged to complete this Project.

We are deeply indebted to Prof. Robin Thomas for our successful completion of the

project proved to be very beneficial to us during our NEP presentation preparation.

We shall be failing in our duty if we don’t acknowledge our debt to

Prof. Niramal Soni & Prof. Ranjana Upadhyay for their valuable guidance and support,

which helped us in giving a shape to our study their clear understanding of every aspect

of the Economics proved to be very beneficial for us.

Their experience in this field proved to be very helpful to us during our research and their

knowledge was also very beneficial to us whenever we faced and sort of problem.

ABSTRACT

Financial Crisis Is a Man-made Catastrophe (Against The Motion)


The report is comprehensive document containing elaborate details with the aim of clear understanding of financial crisis and what leads to financial crisis. It comprising of 36 pages which contains four different parts that gives a clear scenario causes of financial crisis.

This document also contains different diagrams like business cycle & trade cycle. Add on

to it also contains statistics from Deutsche Bank: The History of Business Cycles in the

US.

This document also discussed about the various facts which have been taken from

different sources.



Table Content

1. Financial Crisis

a. Meaning …………………………………………………………………...….6

b. Types of Financial Crisis ………………………………………………...…...7

2. GDP

a. GDP Measurement Tool …………………………………………………...10

b. GDP is The Economy ……………………………………………………....11

3. Business Cycle

a. Meaning

b. Theory of Business Cycle …………………………..........................................13

c. The External Theory ………………………………………………………...15

d. The Internal Theory …………………………………………………………16

4. Phases of Business Cycle……………………………………………………….18

5. Trade Cycle

a. Meaning ……………………………………………………………………..22

b. Features of Trade Cycle…………………………… ………………………..24

c. Types of Trade Cycle ………………………………………………….…….25

6. Business Cycle

a. Introduction to Business Cycle……………………. ………………….…….26

b. The inflation- Unemployment Trade – off ………………………………..…31

c. Stagflation …………………………………………..........................................33

d. Changes in The Cycle ………………………………………………………..35



7. The Great Recession...………………………………........................................37

8. Serious Depression…………………………………..........................................39

9. Booms & Busts ……………………………………………………………........41

a. Falling Prices…………………………………………………………….…..42

10. The History of Business Cycles in The US………….......................................45

11. Bibliography…………………………………………………………………….47



FINANCIAL CRISIS

Meaning:

“The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which some

financial institutions or assets suddenly lose a large part of their value.”

In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking

panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often

called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting of other

financial bubbles, currency crises, and sovereign defaults. Financial crises directly result in

a loss of paper wealth; they do not directly result in changes in the real economy unless a

recession or depression follows.

A financial crisis is a disturbance to financial markets, associated typically with falling asset

prices and insolvency among debtors and intermediaries, which spreads through the

Financial system, disrupting the market's capacity to allocate capital. Our definition of a

financial crisis implies a distinction between generalized financial crises on the one hand

and isolated bank failures, debt defaults and foreign—exchange market disturbances on the

other. We represent this distinction in three sets of linkages: between debt defaults; and

between exchange—market disturbances and bank failures.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper_wealth

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_crisis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run#Systemic_banking_crises

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run#Systemic_banking_crises


Types of Financial Crisis

The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which some financial

institutions or assets suddenly lose a large part of their value. Many financial crises had been

associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other

situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crashes and the bursting

of other financial bubbles, currency crises etc.

1) Banking crises

When a bank suffers a sudden rush of withdrawals by depositors, this is called a bank run.

Since banks lend out most of the cash they receive in deposits, it is difficult for them to

quickly pay back all deposits if these are suddenly demanded, so a run may leave the bank

in bankruptcy, causing many depositors to lose their savings unless they are covered by

deposit insurance. A situation in which bank runs are widespread is called a systemic

banking crisis or just a banking panic. A situation without widespread bank runs, but in

which banks are reluctant to lend, because they worry that they have insufficient funds

available, is often called a credit crunch. In this way, the banks become an accelerator of a

financial crisis. In a systemic banking crisis, a country’s corporate and financial sectors

experience a large number of defaults and financial institutions and corporations face great

difficulties repaying contracts on time. As a result, non-performing loans increase sharply

and all or most of the aggregate banking system capital is exhausted.

2) Speculative bubbles and crashes

Economists say that a financial asset exhibits a

bubble when its price exceeds the present value of

the future income. If most market participants buy

the asset primarily in hopes of selling it later at a



higher price, instead of buying it for the income it will generate, this could be evidence that

a bubble is present. If there is a bubble, there is also a risk of a crash in asset prices: market

participants will go on buying only as long as they expect others to buy, and when many

decide to sell the price will fall. A spike in asset values within a particular industry,

commodity, or asset class. A speculative bubble is usually caused by exaggerated

expectations of future growth, price appreciation, or other events that could cause an

increase in asset values. This drives trading volumes higher, and as more investors rally

around the heightened expectation, buyers outnumber sellers, pushing prices beyond what

an objective analysis of intrinsic value would suggest. The bubble is not completed until

prices fall back down to normalized levels; this usually involves a period of steep decline in

price during which most investors panic and sell out of their investments.

3) International financial crises

When a country that maintains a fixed exchange rate is suddenly forced to devalue its

currency because of a speculative attack, this is called a currency crisis or balance of

payments crisis. When a country fails to pay back its sovereign debt, this is called a

sovereign default. While devaluation and default could both be voluntary decisions of the

government, they are often perceived to be the involuntary results of a change in investor

sentiment that leads to a sudden stop in capital inflows or a sudden increase in capital flight.

4) Wider Economic Crisis

Wider economic crisis: An economy may go through a period of slow or negative

GDP growth . While slow economic growth may be called economic stagnation, negative

GDP growth for more than a couple of quarters is recession. A prolonged recession is called

depression. Some economists argue that many recessions have been caused in large part by

financial crises. One important example is the Great Depression, which was preceded in

many countries by bank runs and stock market crashes. Some economists argue that

financial crises are caused by recessions instead of the other way around, and that even

where a financial crisis is the initial shock that sets off a recession, other factors may be

more important in prolonging the recession.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

http://www.economywatch.com/finance/financial-crisis-credit-crisis-credit-crunch.html

http://www.economywatch.com/finance/financial-crisis-credit-crisis-credit-crunch.html


Other Types

Financial crises might be also a result of the following factors:

Overshooting of markets

Excessive leveraging of debt, and credit booms

Miscalculations of risk

Rapid outflows of capital from a country

Inexperience with new financial instruments

Deregulation without sufficient market monitoring and oversight



GDP

ALL Together Now: C + I + G

Consumption by consumers, investment by business, and government spending are the

three major parts of most economies. The size of a nation’s economy is the total value of

the goods and services produced in the year. This production can be measured either the

total spending that occurs in the economy or by the total cost of the goods sold, which

would equal total income. You arrive at the same number whether you add up the

spending on the goods and services produces or the cost of producing them (the wages,

profits, interest, and rent paid to workers, companies, lenders, and property owners ). The

first method is called the flow-of-product approach, and the second is called the earning

or cost approach.

In either case, when you add up all these transaction-including the value of foreign trade

—the result is gross domestic product, or GDP.

The formula for GDP is:- C + I + G + ( Ex – Im )

The parts of formula are simple:

C = total spending by consumers

I = total investment (spending on goods and services) by business

G = total spending by government (federal, state, and local)

(Ex – Im) = net exports (exports - imports)



GDP Is “The Economy”

When people refer to “the economy”, they are generally referring to GDP. If a

newsperson says, “ the economy grew by 3.5 percent last year,” it means that GDP grew

by 3.5 percent during the year ( also called increasing output )characterized an expansion,

also known as a recovery. A contracting economy ( or decreasing 0utput )

characterized a recession.

Economists also refer to GDP – total spending on goods and services – as total

demand. In other words, the amount of goods and services accounted for in GDP is also

approximately the amount demanded by households, business, and the government.

A growing economy generates increasing amounts of jobs, incomes, and goods

and services for its citizens. All of these are goods things, of course. In a contracting

economy, jobs and incomes are lost and the amount of goods and services produced

shrinks. This puts people out of works and means that there are fewer goods and services

to go around. A stagnant economy – one that is neither growing nor contracting – isn’t

much better than one that’s contracting. The population is always growing, so more

people need jobs and goods and services, and a stagnant economy doesn’t produce them.

If you look at the formula for GDP, you will see that if any one component increases,

then total GDP increase ( assuming that other components remains unchanged ).

For examples:-

If consumer spending grows—if people buy more clothing and cars and homes – then the

economy grows.

If business investment grows – if companies invest in new buildings and equipments and

buy more raw materials—then the economy grows.

If government spending grows – if money is produced into the space program, defense,

roads, and police forces – then the economy grows.



By the same token, if any one component of GDP decreases, then GDP decreases,

unless another components of GDP increases enough to make up for the loss.



Theories of Business Cycle

1) Monetary Theory

Attributes the cycle to the expansion and contraction of bank money and credit

A set of ideas about how monetary policy should be conducted within an economy.

Monetary theory suggests that different monetary policies can benefit nations depending

on their unique set of resources and limitations.

It is based on core ideas about how factors like the size of the money supply, price levels

and benchmark interest rates affect the economy.

Economists and central banking authorities are typically those most involved with

creating and executing monetary policy.

2) The Innovation Theory

Attributes the cycle to the clustering of important inventions such as the rail road

Joseph Schumpeter (USA)

Innovation

– Something new that changes the existing method of production

Whenever innovation takes place, it causes disequilibrium in the economy, continues till

re-adjustment at some new equilibrium level.

3) Psychological Theory

Treats the cycle as a case of people’s infecting each other with pessimistic and optimistic

Prof A. C.

Treats the cycle as a cycle

Changes in psychology of industrialists => waves of optimism and pessimism

He could not explain the cause of the changes in psychology.

4) Over-Saving Theory

Under-consumption theory

Claims too much income goes to wealthy or thrifty people compared with what can be

invested

Capitalist society => inequality of incomes



Propertied class has too much wealth => save => invest the savings in business

Worker class => not enough purchasing power to buy goods produced

Overproduction => fall in prices => depression

Too much saving and too little consumption is the cause of business depression.

5) Over Production Theory

Socialist minded economists

Several rival firms producing the same commodity

Want to capture market=> produce more stock than can sell=> over production=> price

fall=> rise in cost of production=> marginal firms collapse=> depression



The External Theory

Find the root of business cycle in the fluctuation of something outside the economic

system. In war, revolutions, and political events, in gold discoveries, rates of growth of

population and migrations, discoveries of new land and resources, in scientific

discoveries and technological innovation

1. Wars

In war days all the available resources are utilized for the production of weapons which

greatly affect the product of both capital and consumer goods. This fall in production

decreases income, profits which further create unemployment. These create contraction in

the economic activity.

2. Scientific Development.

Another cause of business cycle is scientific development. Every day new products come

to the markets like mobile phone, laptops etc. These products require huge amount of

investment through which new technology of production is adopted. All this increases

income, employment and profit etc. and plays an important part in the revival of

economy.

3. Gold Discoveries.

The discoveries of gold and mines stimulate the volume of international trade and help in

adjusting trade deficit, loans etc. the rising income lead to expansion in economic

activity.

4. Population Growth Rate.

Population growth rate is one the factors of business cycle. If the population growth rate

is higher than the economic growth rate, income level and consumption expenditure and

savings will be low.



The Internal Theory

Look for mechanisms within the economic system itself which will give rise to self

generating business cycle, so that every expansion will breed recession and contraction,

and every contraction will in turn breed revival and expansion, in a quasi-regular,

repeating, never ending chain.

Internal causes of business cycle are those, which are built in within economic system.

These are the internal factors of business cycle:

1) Psychological Factors.

According to Pigou business cycle appears because of the optimistic and pessimistic

mood of the entrepreneur. When entrepreneurs are in optimistic about future market

conditions they take up investment. Here the expanses phase of business cycle starts

which ultimately ends in a boom.

On the contrary, the pessimism reduces investment, production, employment and shifts to

downward trend in business activity

.

2) Money Supply.

Hawtrey and Friendman relate trade cycle to fluctuation in money and credit supply. If

there is expansion in money and credit supply, there will be raise in economic activity. If

there is contraction there will be down fall in economic activity.

3) Over Investment.

Hayek relates business cycle to variation in capital goods industries. Excessive

investment in capital goods industries brings upswing and downswing when there is a fall

in investment.



4) Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC).

According to Keynes changes in the rate of marginal efficiency of capital are responsible

for business cycle. When the rate of marginal efficiency of capital gets higher the

expansion phase of trade cycle commences. There is a contraction phase when the rate of

marginal efficiency of capital is lower.



Four Phases of Business Cycle

Business Cycle (or Trade Cycle) is divided into the following four phases:-

1. Prosperity Phase: Expansion or Boom or Upswing of economy.

2. Recession Phase: from prosperity to recession (upper turning point).

3. Depression Phase: Contraction or Downswing of economy.

4. Recovery Phase: from depression to prosperity (lower turning Point).

Diagram of Four Phases of Business Cycle

The four phases of business cycles are shown in the following diagram :-

The business cycle starts from a trough (lower point) and passes through a recovery phase

followed by a period of expansion (upper turning point) and prosperity. After the peak

point is reached there is a declining phase of recession followed by a depression. Again

the business cycle continues similarly with ups and downs.


http://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-5_YRcX48vfc/Tfuk80hvZjI/AAAAAAAAE4U/HyfwaDXnK_w/Four-Phases-of-Business-Cycle.jpg


Explanation of Four Phases of Business Cycle

The four phases of a business cycle are briefly explained as follows :-

1) Prosperity Phase

When there is an expansion of output, income, employment, prices and profits, there is

also a rise in the standard of living. This period is termed as Prosperity phase.

The features of prosperity are :-

High level of output and trade.

High level of effective demand.

High level of income and employment.

Rising interest rates.

Inflation.

Large expansion of bank credit.

Overall business optimism.

A high level of MEC (Marginal efficiency of capital) and investment.

Due to full employment of resources, the level of production is Maximum and there is a

rise in GNP (Gross National Product). Due to a high level of economic , it causes a rise

in prices and profits. There is an upswing in the economic activity and economy reaches

its Peak. This is also called as a Boom Period.



2) Recession Phase

The turning point from prosperity to depression is termed as Recession Phase.

During a recession period, the economic activities slow down. When demand starts

falling, the overproduction and future investment plans are also given up. There is a

steady decline in the output, income, employment, prices and profits. The businessmen

lose confidence and become pessimistic (Negative). It reduces investment. The banks and

the people try to get greater liquidity, so credit also contracts. Expansion of business

stops, stock market falls. Orders are cancelled and people start losing their jobs. The

increase in unemployment causes a sharp decline in income and aggregate demand.

Generally, recession lasts for a short period.

3) Depression Phase

When there is a continuous decrease of output, income, employment, prices and profits,

there is a fall in the standard of living and depression sets in.

The features of depression are:-

Fall in volume of output and trade.

Fall in income and rise in unemployment.

Decline in consumption and demand.

Fall in interest rate.

Deflation.

Contraction of bank credit.

Overall business pessimism.

Fall in MEC (Marginal efficiency of capital) and investment.



In depression, there is under-utilization of resources and fall in GNP (Gross National

Product). The aggregate economic activity is at the lowest, causing a decline in prices and

profits until the economy reaches its Trough (low point).

4) Recovery Phase

The turning point from depression to expansion is termed as Recovery or Revival Phase.

During the period of revival or recovery, there are expansions and rise in economic

activities. When demand starts rising, production increases and this causes an increase in

investment. There is a steady rise in output, income, employment, prices and profits. The

businessmen gain confidence and become optimistic (Positive). This increases

investments. The stimulation of investment brings about the revival or recovery of the

economy. The banks expand credit, business expansion takes place and stock markets are

activated. There is an increase in employment, production, income and aggregate

demand, prices and profits start rising, and business expands. Revival slowly emerges

into prosperity, and the business cycle is repeated.

Thus we see that, during the expansionary or prosperity phase, there is inflation and

during the contraction or depression phase, there is a deflation.



What Is Trade Cycle?

The alternating periods of expansion and contraction in the economic

activity has been called business cycles or trade cycles.

Image Credits © Havayolu101.

The period of high income, high output and high employment is called as the

Period of Expansion, Upswing or Prosperity.

The period of low income, low output and low employment is called as the

Period of Contraction, Recession, Downswing or Depression.


http://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-MVp382wCsA8/TiG_Cjq0UgI/AAAAAAAAE8k/MsB_bU8mIms/Trade-Cycle.png


Definition of Trade Cycle

According to Keynes,

"A trade cycle is composed of periods of Good Trade, characterized by rising prices and

low unemployment percentages, shifting with periods of bad trade characterized by

falling prices and high unemployment percentages."



Features of Trade Cycle

The characteristics or features of trade cycle are :-

1. Movement in Economic Activity: A trade cycle is a wave-like movement in economic

activity showing an upward trend and a downward trend in the economy.

2. Periodical: Trade cycles occur periodically but they do not show the same regularity.

3. Different Phases: Trade cycles have different phases such as Prosperity, Recession,

Depression and Recovery.

4. Different Types: There are minor and major trade cycles. Minor trade cycles operate for

3-4 years, while major trade cycles operate for 4-8 years or more. Though trade cycles

differ in timing, they have a common pattern of sequential phases.

5. Duration: The duration of trade cycles may vary from a minimum of 2 years to a

maximum of 12 years.

6. Dynamic: Business cycles cause changes in all sectors of the economy. Fluctuations

occur not only in production and income but also in other variables like employment,

investment, consumption, rate of interest, price level, etc.

7. Phases are Cumulative: Expansion and contraction in a trade cycle are cumulative, in

effect, i.e. increasing or decreasing progressively.

8. Uncertainty to businessmen: There is uncertainty in the economy, especially for the

businessmen as profits fluctuate more than any other type of income.

9. International Nature: Trade Cycles are international in character. For e.g. Great

Depression of 1930s.



Types of Trade Cycle

Dynamic forces operating in a capitalist economy create various kinds of economic

fluctuations. These fluctuations can be classified as follows :-

1. Short-Time Cycle: This trade cycle occur for a short period of time. It is also known as

minor cycles. It lasts for about 3-4 years.

2. Major Cycle: This trade cycle occurs for a long period of time and is known as Long

term cycle. It lasts for about 4-8 years or more. It is also known as major cycle.

3. Seasonal Fluctuations: This refers to trade cycles, which take place due to seasonal

changes in the economy. For e.g. failure of monsoon can cause a downtrend in the

economy which may be followed by a good monsoon and up to trend.

4. Irregular or Random Fluctuations: These trade cycles are unpredictable and occur

during a period of strikes, war, etc., causing a shock to the economic system.

5. Cyclic Fluctuation: These fluctuations are wave-like changes in economic activity

caused by recurring phases of expansion and contraction. There is an upswing from a

trough (low point) to peak and downswing from the peak to trough caused due to

economic changes in demand, or supply or various other factors.



Business Cycle

Introduction

The forces of supply and demand play themselves out in the economy in ways that tend

toward equilibrium but never quite get there. Over the very short term or in very specific

areas of the economy, supply, demand, employment, unemployment, wages, and prices

may remain somewhat steady. That can create the impression that a kind of equilibrium

that a kind of equilibrium has been reached. But the short term, by definition, never lasts

long, and here we are focusing on the economy as a whole.

The economy as a whole is always either growing or contracting at a rate that usually

changes from one quarter-or even one month-to the next. In this chapter, we examine the

dynamics of growth and contraction. As I mentioned earlier, every business wants to

grow, every household wants higher income, and every government wants a growing

economy. Over the long term, the U.S. economy does grow at the average of about 3

percent that I mentioned earlier, but that’s the average.ain this chapter, we look at the

swing around that average.



What Is The Business Cycle?

The economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), goes through alternating

phases of growth and contraction. Phases of growth are called expansions, upswings, or

recoveries. Phases of contraction are called recessions, downturns, or periods of negative

growth (yes, it’s an oxymoron, but one that economists insist on using).

The exact beginning of end of a recession or expansion can be difficult to determine,

particularly as it is happening. It can be a challenge even after the fact. The National

Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Cambridge, Massachusetts, does the official

dating of recessions and expansions, but not always in the timeliest manner. They took

around 20 months to declare the official date of the end of the 11-month recession of

2001.In fairness, however. The NBER considers a number of factors other than GDP



growth or contraction, including unemployment, job growth, incomes, and industrial

production.

“Informally, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in GDP(or

negative growth).An expansion is growth in GDP, but unless it lasts, the results can be a

double-dip recession-a recession in which the economy recovers for one, two, or three

quarters and then contracts again. A flat economy is one registering zero growth-neither

growth nor contraction.”During an expansion, consumer, business, and government

demand all usually rise, but not at the same pace or at the same time. Expansions are

often led by the consumer. In a consumer-led expansion, household demand more goods

and services. In response, businesses increase production, put existing employees on

overtime, and eventually hire new workers. This sets off a various cycle of rising

consumer demand, rising sales for business, and rising employment. Rising employment

generates rising incomes for consumers, which files rising consumer demand, rising sales

for business, and so on. Businesses increase their purchases of raw materials and expand

their productive capacity by investing in new plant and equipment and offices. This kicks

the sales of other businesses-contactors, builders, and producers of materials and capital

equipment-into high gear.

Meanwhile, the federal government enjoys rising tax receipts. Elected officials can

spread the wealth among their constituents by funding programs and increasing pay for

government workers and the military (and themselves). They also usually increase

government purchases and employment in health and human services, defense, public

works, space exploration, and scientific research. If the federal budget runs a surplus, in

which tax receipts exceed the federal budget, officials may even pay down some of the

nation’s debt-but don’t count on it.

“When GDP rises, the government collects more in taxes without increasing tax rates.

People pay more in federal and state income taxes on rising incomes. Revenue from sales

taxes increases, which benefits most states and some cities. Property values usually rise,

increasing property tax receipts of local governments. Unfortunately, when GDP



contracts, the reverse occurs, and government tax receipts at all levels decrease. This can

cause severe financial difficulty for states and local governments.”

Even poor people fare relatively well in an expansion-that is, relative to their situation

during a recession. As unemployment approaches the full-employment level of 4 percent,

almost every worker can find employment. Unfortunately, those without skills are

destined to remain relatively poor and vulnerable to job loss when the next downturn

arrives.

In a recession, demand falls-we’ll examine why in a minute-and when demand falls,

production contracts. In a typical recession, a decrease in consumer demand sets off a

vicious cycle. When consumer demand decreases, businesses cut back production. They

buy fewer raw materials, stop hiring workers, and even lay off some workers. They put

expansion plans on hold, and may even shut down plants and offices.

These moves by businesses decrease consumers’ income, which prompts consumers to

reduce their consumption. When consumption falls further, businesses cut back

production even more, lying off workers, further reducing income, and so on.

So in a typical recession, consumption-the c in C+I+G-and investment - the I in the GDP

formula-both fall.

What happens to government spending? You would expect it to fall, particularly when

tax receipts decrease as incomes decrease. However, the federal government usually

continues to spend during a recession. That provides a cushion-a baseline level of

demand-so demand doesn’t fall too far too fast. How much to spend is a fiscal policy

decision for the government.

When does a recession end? When demand is rekindled and starts rising, setting off a

new virtuous cycle. Demand usually increases again because consumers reach a point

where they simply have to increase their spending. Cars have to be replaced. Clothing

wears out. Appliances break down for the fifth time. Even during a recession, most



consumers continue to spend, although not at normal levels and not at levels that make

the economy grow. It is the rekindling of demand from the consumers who cut back

because they lost their jobs, overtime pay, or sense of security that kicks off the next

expansion.

Often, however, the consumer needs help. In the great Recession of 2008-2009,for

example, the government applied significant fiscal and monetary stimulus to the

economy, for example, through unemployment insurance and job-creation programs-so

that the economy does not contract to the point where a serious, long-term recession or a

depression, occurs.

“A depression is a prolonged period of extremely low consumer demand and investment,

reduced business activity, high unemployment, and pessimism about the future of the

economy.”



The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Off

For much of the past century, economists and business people believed that there was a

trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Many still do. Here’s the theory, which

has often (but not always) been borne out in the real world.

An economy enjoying high demand and high employment experiences inflationary

pressure-that is, upward pressure on prices. That’s because when demand for goods and

services is high, consumers bid up the prices of goods and services. Sellers, of course, are

happy to accommodate them. This is called demand-pull inflation, because buyers’

increasing demand pulls up prices.

There’s another type of inflation, too. When the unemployment rate is low (say, around

the full-employment rate of 4 percent), we have a tight labor market. In a tight market,

employers increase wages in order to keep good workers and hire new ones. This upward

pressure in wages raises the cost of doing business. To maintain their profits, businesses

have to raise their prices. This is called cost-push inflation, because the increased costs

push prices upward. (It is also, more properly but less commonly, called wage-push

inflation.)

“Demand-pull inflation occurs when consumers bid up prices, usually because

employment is strong and incomes are increasing. Wage-push inflation occurs when

businesses must raise wages to keep and attract workers in an environment of low

unemployment, and therefore must also raise their prices. Cost-push inflation can

include wage-push inflation, but also refers to price increased by business due to

increased costs of one or more inputs other than labor.”

Regardless of which comes first-the chicken of increased prices or the egg of increased

wages (or is it the other way around?)-the result can be a price-wage inflation spiral.

Demand for goods pushes up prices and keeps production high and unemployment low.

Low unemployment pushes wages up. With higher incomes, consumers can afford the



higher prices. Production is stepped up even further, and that pushes unemployment even

lower and wages even higher, and so on.

Where does the spiral end? It ends when the government reins in the money supply or

when the level of demand and the level of real wages reach the equilibrium, full-

employment level and stays there. We will see how the government reduces the money

supply in part-4.The demand and supply for goods and services, which determine prices,

and the demand and supply of labor, which dictate wages, reach equilibrium levels when

demand cools down but does not fall too sharply.

If demand falls too sharply, the economy is pushed into a recession. A recession wrings

inflation out of an economy by reducing income. When businesses cut back, people lose

their jobs and overtime pay. That stops the wage inflation and dampens consumer

spending. When consumers cut back their spending, businesses lower their prices-or at

least stop increasing them-to get people to buy. That stops the price inflation.

The inflation/unemployment trade-off is the classic view of the two phenomena and of

the business cycle. However, two relatively recent developments have complicated

things: the stagflation of the 1970s and changes in the business cycle, as evidenced in the

low-inflation booms of the 1990s and 2000s.



Stagflation

Stagflation, a combination of stagnation and inflation, means rising prices in the face of

fairly high unemployment. Why would such a thing occur? If unemployment is relatively

high, how can people have the income to bid up prices if goods and services?

“Stagflation refers to rising prices in an environment of relatively slack demand and high

unemployment. It usually arises from cost-push inflation, when the cost of one or more

inputs-other than labor-increases.”

They don’t. Stagflation results from an increase in the price of inputs other than labor.

It’s not wage-push inflation. In fact, the price of even one input can generate inflation,

even in a slack economy, if that input is important and widely used-like oil, for instance.

Indeed, the term stagflation arose to describe the economy of the 1970s after

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sharply increased the price of oil

in 1973. Oil, gasoline, and other petroleum products are key inputs in virtually every

aspect of the U.S. economy, as either raw material or fuel. There are few short-term

substitutes for oil and gasoline, so the economy had to absorb the oil price shock.

Businesses raised their prices, but incomes didn’t rise and consumer demand stayed

sluggish.

Stagflation can be quite persistent. In the short term, there is little to be done about it.

Over the longer term, people can use less of the input or develop substitutes. They also

absorb the shock and ride it out until overall wage and price levels adjust stabilize. This

eventually occurred after the oil shock of the early 1970s and after the milder, but also

jarring, oil shock of the early 1980s.

In the 2000s, oil prices increased sharply after the 9/11 attacks and with the war in Iraq

and rising demand from China. Although there increases hit consumers in the form of

higher heating oil and gasoline prices and higher airfares, the U.S. economy saw scant

increases in inflation. Even during the 2000s boom. Reasons for this are not entirely



clear, but the most likely ones include increasing use of foreign labor to produce

manufactured goods coupled with a strong dollar (which keeps prices if import low);

increased productivity of U.S. worker due to better technology and static income; and

changes to the method of calculating inflation (for instance, using equivalent rents rather

than actual housing prices).

Economists and business people watch two widely reported measures of inflation: the

consumer prices index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). The CPI measures the

increase (or decrease) over a month, quarter, or year in the prices that consumers pay for

a market basket of popular goods and services. The PPI measures the increase (or

decrease) in the general price that producers pay for raw materials, labor, and other

inputs.

Indeed, in the late 1990s, some economists concluded that increased productivity in the

U.S. economy had done away with the traditional trade-off between inflation and

unemployment. During the 1990s expansion, inflation remained quite low-about 2

percent or less per year-even as unemployment approached the rock-bottom rate of 4

percent. Other economists argue that the inflation/unemployment trade-off many still

exist because the 1990s and 2000s were unusual periods of unsustainable productivity

growth and that lackluster income growth and a strong dollar also helped keep inflation

low.



Changes in the Cycle

The business cycle and the relationship between inflation and unemployment that I’ve

describe are those that prevailed in theory and reality until the 1970’s. There have been

some changes since then. Most important among these are the following:

Lower information

Higher productivity

Faster response by business

Fed-fueled booms and bubbles

Inflation erodes the value of the currency, and therefore the government, by means of

monetary policy administered by the Federal Reserve, tries to prevent or at least control

it. We will examine monetary policy. In recent years, the fed has been quite successful in

keeping inflation low- although, other factors have also played a role.

Some economist believes that increased productivity in the U.S. economy has moderated

the trade-off between inflation and unemployment. If productivity rises, business can

produce more with roughly the same resources. That means that prices don’t get pushed

up. During the 1990s and 2000s expansions, productivity generally increased due to

improved technology and management method. Also, real income has not grown

substantially, which increase workers’ productivity but not the workers lining standards.

Business now respond more quickly to changes in the business cycle then did before the

1980’s thanks to better information system and inventory management. Business reduces

production more quickly, lay people off faster, and do not rehire workers as quickly as

they did in past business cycles. When business responds faster to changing demand, they

shift a bit more Burdon of recession of customers, who are laid off faster. Many

employees have learned to cope with this by working as independent contractors and

supplementing their income, but many have not and were particularly hard hit by the

great recession.



During the expansion if the 1990’s and 2000’s, the Federal Reserve failed to raise interest

rates aggressively enough to word off asset price bubbles. The fed’s easy money policies

allowed increase in liquidity that contributed to rising tech-stock prices in the 1990s and

rising home prices in 2000s. Although it may be a bit harsh to lay all the blame at fed’s

doorstep, the fed clearly contributed to these increased asset prices and the overall easy

credit condition. The fed may point out that inflation had remained low, but low inflation

is hardly the only measure of a healthy economy.

Business improved their responses to recession even if the fed did not improve its

response to unrestrained growth. We will see as future business cycle unfold how each

party- and the customer –continues to adjust. Even so, the fundamental dynamics of the

business cycle remain largely unchanged except for the lack of significant inflation over

the past 20 years. The mechanism of increased demand leading to increased production

and rising income followed by a decrease in demand, decreased production, and falling

income still operates in the economy.

But we’ve yet to answer one question: what causes demand to decrease in the first place?



The Great Recession

The recession of 2008-2009 was not a normal downturn in the business cycle. Rather it

was a cyclical downturn exacerbated by several extraordinary factors.

The housing bubble and subprime mortgages buried within globally distributed

mortgage-backed securities touched off a crisis in the financial market and banking

system that made it far more difficult to pull out of the recession. Banks were very

reluctant to lend, and bank lending helps business and consumers to spend and thus boost

demand.

Consumer debt was already at record levels going into recession, which also meant that

households were unable and unwilling to borrow more. In times of financial stress, a

consumer reduces spending and focusing on paying for necessities and on reducing their

debt.

Expansionary fiscal policy in the form of tax cuts and deficit spending, and expansionary

monetary policy in the form of low interest rates during the expansions of 2002 to 2007,

left both the bush and Obama administration with very few policy options. Yes, during

the recession both administrations engaged in the deficit spending and interest rates were

kept low, but those policies could do little to reignite vigorous growth, although they did

keep the recession from getting worse and prevented the economy from falling into a

depression.

However, government debt also stood at record levels, which prompted opposition

concerns about deficit spending when Obama took office. Unfortunately, those voices

had been silent through the tax cuts, war costs and huge increases in government debt that

occurred during the expansion under the preceding administration.

The turmoil in the financial and housing markets caused a very loss of wealth for

consumers, as well as feeling that they were losing ground economically. Add to that



long stagnant real wage growth and a nationwide unemployment rate that topped 10

percent, and you have a very wary consumer and relatively slow recovery.

Business also remained very wary. As I pointed out, businesses have become more

aggressive in their response to downturns; they are faster to lay workers off and slower to

rehire. That makes for sharply increasing unemployment when recession hits and slow

jobs growth when recovery begins.

In addition to these factors, the U.S. industrial base and relation between employers and

employee changed dramatically from 1980s to the 2000s. Millions of manufacturing jobs

had been exported to lower wage nations. That means that the traditional pattern of

layoffs followed by rehiring changed. Now the rehiring may or may not happen because

the employers don’t have factories that need to be staffed. They more often hire part-time

or temporary workers and independent contractors. Relatively few private-sector workers

belong to unions, and unions have far less power. In fact, much of the risk of downturns

was shifted from employers to employees from the 1980s to the 2000s.

All of these factors made what could have been a normal recession much worse. That

recession also left a number of problems in its wake. These include lingering high

unemployment, a housing market that may take years to recover, a smaller U.S. auto

industry, and many baby boomers facing retirement with low savings and financially

stressed Social Security and Medicare programs. That said, at least the economy managed

to avoid an economic depression, although a double-dip recession remained possible.



Serious Depression

Economist calls a deep, prolonged contraction a depression. A depression is not as clearly

defined as a recession, but is characterized by rising unemployment, falling incomes

prices, excess inventories and productive capacitive, lack of confidence, and a generally

low level of business activity. Fortunately, depressions are very rare. The great

depression of the 1930s was the only true depression to occur in the United States and

Europe in the past century.

The great depression lasted from 1929, when then stock market crashed in october25

(Black Thursday), to about 1940. During the depression, unemployment reached 25

percent, families lost their savings and homes and survived on charity and odd jobs,

farms and banks failed by the thousands, and two generations formed lifelong memories

of tough economic times. Real GDP contracted by 8.6 percent in1030, 6.4 percent 1931,

13.0 percent 1932, and 1.4 percent in 1933.

Economist disagree about the exact causes of the Great Depression, but a stock market

bubble driven by the wild buying of the roaring twenties is one suspect. Much of that

buying was on margin, meaning with borrowed money, so when stock prices peaked and

a sell—off began, it quickly snowballed into a crash. Although the Crash of 1929 did not

actually CAUSE THE Great Depression, it certainly reduced people’s wealth and,

perhaps more importantly, induced pessimism and fear regarding their economic

prospects. That lack of confidence prevailed for much of the 1030s.

In the view of economists, the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce the money supply in

the very early 1930w reduced demanded too sharply. Some economists blame the Fed for

pushing the nation into depression, but a lot of money was actually taken out of the

economy by bank failures when people put a run on a bank—that is, when all or most

depositors want to withdraw their money at once—the bank typically fail. The bank will

close its doors, because the depositors money is not in the bank – most of it has been



loaned out as mortgages, auto loans, and personal loans. Bank failures reduced the money

supply and that, apart from the Fed’s actions, reduced demand.

Moreover, business investment collapsed. Why? The market crash hobbled companies’

efforts to raise capital by selling stock. Consumer pessimism and falling demand left

business with fewer reasons to invest. A reduced money supply and high interest rates

made money harder to come by and expensive to borrow.

Actually, economists agree that all of these factors – the stock market crash, collapse in

confidence, reduction of the money supply, bank failures, high interests rates, and

reduced business investment—played a role in initiating, prolonging, or worsening the

Great Depression. The disagreement concerns their exact roles and relative importance in

the debacle.

Fortunately, economists agree that the United States now has safeguards in place that

make a repeat of the Great Depression unlikely. These safeguards include a social safety

net in the form of unemployment insurance, welfare, Medicaid, and Medicare. They also

include a more active government role in economic policy, better regulation of the

securities markets, and insurance of bank deposits up to $100,000( increased to $250,000

until the end of 2013 ) thanks to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC ),

which was created in 1933 to insure bank deposits and put an end to runs on banks.

Overall, the U.S. government and governments elsewhere in the developed world are far

more willing to intervene in the economic cycle than they were before the Great

Depression.



Booms and Busts

When Consumers and businesses increase or decrease demand gradually, the cycle of

recession and recovery will be relatively will be relatively smooth, although hardly

painless. But exaggerated response by consumers or businesses can create a boom or a

bust.

(A bust is a colloquial term for a sharp, severe downturn.)

A boom occurs when demand increase sharply over a sustained period. The increase in

demand can be broad-based and affect the entire economy, or it can be more specific. For

example, a nationwide housing boom may be driven by a dramatic increase of adults in

the population who are ready to become homeowners. More specifically still, a housing

boom can occur in rapidly growing city, as occurred in Las Vegas from the late 1980s

though most the 1990s.

In general, an economic boom means good times for most people. However, if a boom

continues long enough and strong enough, it can generate overexpansion by businesses or

inflation. If Businesses over expand, they wind up with too much productive capacity and

too many employees for the exiting level of demand. When that happens, they must their

coasts by cutting back on purchases of materials and equipment and decreasing the

number of employees through layoffs. When employees are laid off, they cut back their

spending, too. If businesses and employees cut back their spending sharply enough for

long enough, a recession begins. If economic conditions become bad enough, the result

can be bust.



Falling Prices

Until recently, very few economists worried about deflation, but since the early 2000s

many have started re-examining the phenomenon. Deflation is defined as a sustained as a

sustained period of falling prices for most goods and services. It is a situation of too few

dollars chasing too many goods and is therefore the opposite on inflation.

Deflation is period of falling prices across a broad range of products and services. It is

the opposite of inflation, in that too few dollars are chasing too many goods. In such a

situation producers have no choice but to reduce their prices.

For this reason, deflation might strike you as a wonderful development. Indeed, it helps

households, at least initially. Consumers can buy more for their money because, if prices

are falling and wages remain stable, the purchasing power of the currency is rising. But

that is about the only benefit to consumers, and it can be short lived.

During deflation, a business that’s able to increase its sales volume enough to offset the

effect of lower prices many continue to do business more or less as usual. But many

businesses find that lower prices mean lower sales or lower profits, or both. Businesses

facing declining profits will have to reduce their payrolls and other costs. This reduces

employment and income, which can set off the vicious cycle of lower demand, lower

production, and recession.

In addition, deflation hurts debts with cheaper dollars. Also, returns on savings and

investments many decrease during deflation because interest rates tend to fall along with

profits and , by extension, stock prices and dividends. Remember, the goal of sound

economic policy is stable currency, one that neither gaining nor losing purchasing power.

For this reason, economists take a dim view of deflation.

The cause of deflation is too much capacity – the ability to produce too many goods and

services given the level of demand. In the United states, the huge investment in

technology made during the 1990s expanded capacity while reducing production cost.



One cure for deflation is to reduce capacity, which is painful for the businessmen that

must close factories or stores – and for their employees. The other is to increase demand,

which isn’t always easy to do. Lower interest rates can help spur borrowing and

spending, but sometimes the only cure in time. Sooner or later the car, clothes, and

appliances need replacing, demand rises, and the virtuous cycle begins again.

The Least You Need to Know

The business Cycle is the alternating pattern of expansion and recession caused by

fluctuating demand by consumers, businesses, and government , and by mismatches

between supply supply and demand and between savings and investment.

Demand-pull inflation occurs when consumers bid up the prices of goods and services.

Wage-push inflation occurs when businesses must raise wages to keep and attract

workers in an environment of low unemployment. Cost-push inflation refers to price

increases by businesses due to increased costs of inputs other than labor.

A recession is informally defined as at two consecutive quarters of contraction in GDP.

The formal definition is a period of high unemployment, and low of contracting income

growth, business investment, and economic activity. A depression is a prolonged period

of rising unemployment, falling incomes, falling prices, excess inventories and

productive capacity, and lack of confidence.

The long-accepted relationship between inflation and unemployment is that low

unemployment eventually generates inflation, and a mind recession is the cure for that

inflation. However, the phenomenon of stagflation shows that inflation can occur even in

the presence of relatively high unemployment.

The business cycle and traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment may

have changed in past 30 years due to faster responses by businesses, the federal reserve’s

success at controlling inflation, and higher productivity.

"Recessions are a natural economic feature and their regular occurrence is healthy and

indeed essential," is how Deutsche's Jim Reid introduces his investigation into post-Fed

un-natural business cycles. Without them there is a serious danger of bubbles and the



misallocation of resources as the further market participants detach themselves from the

last downturn the more they tend to under-estimate risk. We,



Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank: The History of Business Cycles in The US

The chart below shows the duration of each economic expansion (i.e. between all US

recessions) since the NBER started collating statistics from 1854. This highlights the fact

that prior to the GFC the three preceding expansions were in the top five on record. We

can also show that this cycle is now almost exactly average length through history.

If we re-order these cycles by duration we can show more clearly how this current US

expansion compares to those through history.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/08-2/20120904_biz_cycle1.png


We passed the median cycle length at the start of 2012 and we will be past the historical

average point by the end of this month (September 2012). This expansion is now the 12th

longest out of 34 since 1854.


http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/08-2/20120904_biz_cycle2.png


BIBILOGRAPHY

Referred Books

1. The idiot’s guide to Economics By: TOM MORGAN

2. Managerial Economics By: ATMANAND

3. Economics By: RICHARD G LPSEY, K.ALEC CHRYSTAL

Web Sites

1. http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/armstrongeconomics-the-next-wave-042411-update.pdf

2. http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2012/05/3. httpconza.tumblr.compost12410177319intro-to-austrian-business-cycle-theory-

how-the

4. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-responsible-great-financial-crisis5. http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-

contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse-2012-8?op=1#ixzz26Y0H8VqN6. http://kalyan-city.blogspot.in/2011/06/4-phases-of-business-cycle-in-

economics.html7. http://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/4-stages-of-economic-

cycle#ixzz1rhXboeeL8. http://wallstreetandtech.com/financial-risk-management/2316002079. http://econfix.wordpress.com/category/economic-cycle/10. http://www.historyshots.com/financialcrisis/index.cfm11. http://data.world bank.org/about/world-develpoment-indicaters-data/financial-

sector 12. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp002217.pdf


http://www.historyshots.com/financialcrisis/index.cfm

http://econfix.wordpress.com/category/economic-cycle/

http://wallstreetandtech.com/financial-risk-management/231600207

http://kalyan-city.blogspot.in/2011/06/4-phases-of-business-cycle-in-economics.html

http://kalyan-city.blogspot.in/2011/06/4-phases-of-business-cycle-in-economics.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse-2012-8?op=1#ixzz26Y0H8VqN

http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse-2012-8?op=1#ixzz26Y0H8VqN

business cycle detail report.shrikant rana

Economy & Finance

types of financial crisis

term financial crisis

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