business employment dynamics: state and county data
DESCRIPTION
Business Employment Dynamics: State and County Data. David M. Talan ALMIS Database Seminar San Diego, CA August 16, 2005. Preliminary BED State Data Available. New data product Total private data: 1992-2004 Seasonally adjusted NAICS sector data: 1998-2004 Unadjusted. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Business Employment Dynamics:
State and County Data
David M. Talan
ALMIS Database SeminarSan Diego, CA
August 16, 2005
Job Reallocation Rates by State:States Above the National Average
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
US AverageNew York
NevadaLouisiana
New JerseyOklahoma
New HampshireGeorgia
VermontUtah
ColoradoArizonaOregon
MaineNew Mexico
FloridaCalifornia
WashingtonIdaho
MontanaWyoming
Alaska
Percent
Gross Job Gain Rate Gross Job Loss Rate
Preliminary BED State Data Available
• New data product• Total private data: 1992-2004
Seasonally adjusted
• NAICS sector data: 1998-2004 Unadjusted
Business Employment Dynamics: Concepts
• New data highlight employment gains and losses from business:
Openings Closings Expansions Contractions
Business Employment Dynamics: Concepts
• BED data are compiled from records 6.5 million private sector business establishments from the QCEW program
• BED reveals the dynamics of the labor market.• BED data show gross flows as well as net
employment changes.
Business Employment Dynamics: Methods
• Establishments are linked longitudinally • Linkages address mergers, acquisitions, and
spin-offs, etc.• 450 million quarterly records and growing
United States Total Private Employment, Unadjusted: 2001-2004Q3
101,000,000
102,000,000
103,000,000
104,000,000
105,000,000
106,000,000
107,000,000
108,000,000
109,000,000
110,000,000
111,000,000
112,000,000
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04
Time
Empl
oym
ent
Uses of Business Dynamics Data
Business Dynamics data will help:• Assess the employment dynamics of the business
cycle• Provide new indicators on the health of the labor
market• Highlight the forces behind the net changes of
employment
BED—Filling a Data Gap
• The BED has generated excitement in the user community as it fills in a data gap:
“The new Employment Dynamics data produced by BLS demonstrate quite clearly that new jobs appear even at the same time that other jobs disappear—and in the same industries.”—Janet L. Norwood, Committee on National Statistics, October 28, 2004
Uses of State and Local BED Data
• Compare BED data geographically • Identify troubled industries by measuring closing and
declining businesses.
• Identify growth industries by measuring openings and expanding businesses.
• Support existing LMI data
Job Reallocation Rates by State:States with the Most Number of Gross Job Gains based on 2004Q2
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0
WisconsinPennsylvania
IndianaIllinois
MassachusettsOhio
TennesseeNorth Carolina
MissouriTexas
MarylandVirginia
MinnesotaMichigan
South CarolinaNew YorkLouisiana
New JerseyGeorgia
ColoradoArizonaOregonFlorida
CaliforniaWashington
Percent
Gross Job Gain Rate Gross Job Loss Rate
Job Reallocation Rates by State:States Below the National Average
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
HawaiiArkansas
ConnecticutWisconsin
PennsylvaniaIndiana
NebraskaIllinois
MassachusettsIowaOhio
AlabamaTennessee
North CarolinaMissouri
KentuckyMississippi
TexasDelawareMaryland
West VirginiaVirginia
MinnesotaSouth Dakota
KansasMichigan
Rhode IslandSouth Carolina
North DakotaUS Average
Percent
Gross Job Gain Rate Gross Job Loss Rate
Uses of State and Local BED Data
• Measure effectiveness of incentive programs:
business development zones small/minority business development programs loans/grants programs
• Identify growth areas
Total Employment: Baldwin, County Alabama
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1
Time
Empl
oym
ent
Gross Job Gains and Losses for Baldwin County, Alabama, Unadjusted: 1998Q1-2003Q1
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
Time
Empl
oym
ent
Gross J ob Gains
Gross J ob Losses
Components of Gross Job Gains and Losses for Baldwin County, Alabama, Unadjusted: 1998Q1-2003Q1
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Time
Empl
oym
ent Expansions
Openings
Contractions
Closings
Challenges for Publishing State and County BED data
• Predecessor / Successor relationships• State systems edits and linkages• Tools needed for State review• Non-disclosure for county data?
State Role in Publishing BED Data
• Focus Edits on P/S Review Imputations Use Wage Record Editing Tool
• Validate State BED data
Summary
• Preliminary State BED are available for review and use
• Working together we can solve these publication challenges
• BED is a new paradigm in labor market analysis
