The marine foresight panel’s energies from the sea task force concluded that both wave and tidal stream have the potential to supply a major part of Britain's energy needs

But how much power is there and how much of this power can realistically tapped?

The resource is clearly large with the ETU estimating that 50TWh/year could be obtained offshore and 2.1TWh/year near shore

HOW LARGE IS THE POTENTIAL WAVE ENERGY RESOURCE?

Paul Nichols24th February 2005

WHAT ASSUMPTIONS TO ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL ENERGY PRODUCED BY WAVE POWER?

1) Offshore projects will be the only commercially viable ones with near shore providing niche markets only

2) Pelamis will be the first commercially viable offshore technology due to the funding it has and its stage of development

3)The output of one pelamis will grow to 1MW and they will be installed in 30MW farms

4) Any future technologies brought onto the market will be at least as good as pelamis

5) The load factor for wave energy will be about 35% by 2050 but currently is 25%

WHAT ASSUMPTIONS TO ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL ENERGY PRODUCED BY WAVE POWER?

FURTHER ASSUMPTONS ABOUT THE PRODUCTION OF WAVE FARMS AND PRODUCTION TIME SCALE

2010: first commercial pelamis farm installed for testing

2015: first major wave farms developed

2020: more wave farms installed after success of first farms

2025: increased growth in pelamis farms as technology becomes mainstream and potential installation of other new technologies

2030: steady growth in wave farms to help meet renewable obligations

ESTIMATES OF NUMBER OF INSTALLED WAVE FARMS

Using my assumptions I have created the following estimates of the number of wave farms that will be installed

total number of wave farms installed

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

year

optimistic everything runs toplan wave power takes offand becomes mainstream

pessemestic wave powerfails to become competetiveand rreasearch phaseencounters problems

yearload factor optimistic

load factor pessemistic

generating capacity a single wave farm optimistic (MW)

generating capacity of a single wave farm pessemistic (MW)

output from wave farms optimistic MW

output from wave farms pessemistic MW

output PJ/year optimistic

Output Pj/year pessemistic

2010 0.25 0.25 30 30 7.5 0 0.24 0.00

2015 0.25 0.25 30 30 37.5 7.5 1.18 0.24

2020 0.3 0.25 35 30 105 15 3.31 0.47

2025 0.3 0.3 35 35 262.5 105 8.28 3.31

2030 0.35 0.3 40 35 560 210 17.67 6.63

OPTIMISTIC AND PESSEMISTIC ESTIMATES OF OUTPUT FROM WAVE POWER

Output from wave power

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

year

MW optimistic

pessemistic

conclusion

Wave power over the next 25 years will become commercially viable and progress will be made in the development of wave farms

The wave farms will produce a very small percentage of the renewables quota in the next 25 years but after the next 25 years they are likely to become a much larger player in renewable energy market as they will have gone through there initiation period where faults can be dealt with and many lessons learned

The development of future wave farms though Is very reliant on funds to allow it to progress through the research and design stage and onto a commercial basis

With the development of wave farms there is likely to be opposition from the shipping industry and potentially some environmental concerns about the habitats they are placed in

However the environmental benefits of using wave power should not be underestimated