buy - hdfc securities spirits - 4qfy19 - hdfc sec...increase in glass bottle and ena prices. mgmt...

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HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 31 MAY 2019 United Spirits BUY Risk-reward favourable United Spirits (UNSP’s) 4QFY19 was in-line but weak. This is led by subdued revenue growth and increase in RM costs. Long-term industry opportunity is attractive. 20% price correction in trailing year makes the valuation attractive (45/34x FY20/21E). Maintain estimates and BUY with TP of Rs 650 (+20%) @ 40x FY21E EPS. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER 4QFY19 highlights: (1) Revenue growth was soft at 3.5% YoY due to election led disruptions and floppy consumer demand. Volumes grew by 1% YoY (P&A 7%, Popular -4%) and price/mix improved by 2.5% (P&A 0.5%, Popular 3%). Modest improvement in P&A pricing we believe is owing to price cut on McDowell’s and part absorption of excise increase in Maharashtra. Nevertheless, mgmt remains confident of low-teens revenue growth on medium term basis. UNSP saw 1.5-5% price increase across ten states in trailing 2-3 months. This was a key positive surprise. Nearly, 15-16 states had provided price hikes in FY17/18. Further, price increases from 10 states implies either change in attitude of govt and/or mgmt/ industry’s success in handling bureaucrats, a larger positive. We can pin hope of consistent price hikes. Gross margin declined by 345bps YoY on account of increase in glass bottle and ENA prices. Mgmt highlighted that most of the cost inflation is behind. Despite increase in RM prices, mgmt remains sure of improving margins led by revenue growth and efficiencies etc. We believe UNSP has multiple levers for margin expansion and this is feasible. On working capital improvement, mgmt highlighted of increasing warehouse capacities. It would enable to store finished goods instead of keeping excise paid (60- 70% of gross revenue) goods with state beverage corporations. It is also exploring of recommending states to recover duties from channel partners instead of manufacturers. These are strategically positive steps and if successful; it could boost earnings. Near term outlook is mixed with softer base waning, increase in RM prices and excise duties that may impact volume and possibility of liquor ban in AP (3-4% of revenue/EBITDA); we believe UNSP may go through some more time correction. STANCE High barriers to entry, inelastic demand, and long-term consumption play; coupled with transformation of UNSP viz. premiumisation, cost control and de-leveraging attracts investors. We believe in this. UNSP is on track to deliver the guided low-teens revenue growth and mid- high teens EBITDA margin. Standalone Financial Summary (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E Net Sales 22,500 21,737 3.5 25,009 (10.0) 85,936 81,701 89,909 98,855 108,589 EBITDA 2,836 2,741 3.5 4,031 (29.6) 10,159 10,215 13,474 15,760 19,023 APAT 1327 1742 (23.8) 2349 (43.5) 4,416 5,527 7,436 8,768 11,387 Diluted EPS (Rs) 1.8 2.4 (23.8) 3.2 (43.5) 6.1 7.6 10.2 12.1 15.7 P/E (x) 88.8 70.9 52.7 44.7 34.4 EV / EBITDA (x) 42.5 41.5 31.0 26.1 21.2 RoE (%) 24.2 24.9 26.4 24.6 24.9 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY ALCO-BEV CMP (as on 30 May 2019) Rs 540 Target Price Rs 650 Nifty 11,946 Sensex 39,832 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg UNSP IN No. of Shares (mn) 727 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 392/5,609 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 917 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 716/438 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (1.2) (19.8) (20.3) Relative (%) (12.3) (29.8) (34.4) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-18 Mar-19 Promoters 56.8 56.8 FIs & Local MFs 4.9 5.2 FPIs 23.1 22.6 Public & Others 15.3 15.5 Pledged Shares* 1.9 2.0 Source : BSE, * % of total Himanshu Shah [email protected] +91-22-6171-7315

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Page 1: BUY - HDFC securities Spirits - 4QFY19 - HDFC sec...increase in glass bottle and ENA prices. Mgmt highlighted that most the of cost inflation is . behind Despite increase in RM prices,

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters

RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 31 MAY 2019

United Spirits BUY

Risk-reward favourableUnited Spirits (UNSP’s) 4QFY19 was in-line but weak. This is led by subdued revenue growth and increase in RM costs. Long-term industry opportunity is attractive. 20% price correction in trailing year makes the valuation attractive (45/34x FY20/21E). Maintain estimates and BUY with TP of Rs 650 (+20%) @ 40x FY21E EPS. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER 4QFY19 highlights: (1) Revenue growth was soft at

3.5% YoY due to election led disruptions and floppy consumer demand. Volumes grew by 1% YoY (P&A 7%, Popular -4%) and price/mix improved by 2.5% (P&A 0.5%, Popular 3%). Modest improvement in P&A pricing we believe is owing to price cut on McDowell’s and part absorption of excise increase in Maharashtra. Nevertheless, mgmt remains confident of low-teens revenue growth on medium term basis.

UNSP saw 1.5-5% price increase across ten states in trailing 2-3 months. This was a key positive surprise. Nearly, 15-16 states had provided price hikes in FY17/18. Further, price increases from 10 states implies either change in attitude of govt and/or mgmt/ industry’s success in handling bureaucrats, a larger positive. We can pin hope of consistent price hikes.

Gross margin declined by 345bps YoY on account of increase in glass bottle and ENA prices. Mgmt

highlighted that most of the cost inflation is behind. Despite increase in RM prices, mgmt remains sure of improving margins led by revenue growth and efficiencies etc. We believe UNSP has multiple levers for margin expansion and this is feasible.

On working capital improvement, mgmt highlighted of increasing warehouse capacities. It would enable to store finished goods instead of keeping excise paid (60-70% of gross revenue) goods with state beverage corporations. It is also exploring of recommending states to recover duties from channel partners instead of manufacturers. These are strategically positive steps and if successful; it could boost earnings.

Near term outlook is mixed with softer base waning, increase in RM prices and excise duties that may impact volume and possibility of liquor ban in AP (3-4% of revenue/EBITDA); we believe UNSP may go through some more time correction.

STANCE High barriers to entry, inelastic demand, and long-term consumption play; coupled with transformation of UNSP viz. premiumisation, cost control and de-leveraging attracts investors. We believe in this. UNSP is on track to deliver the guided low-teens revenue growth and mid-high teens EBITDA margin.

Standalone Financial Summary (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E Net Sales 22,500 21,737 3.5 25,009 (10.0) 85,936 81,701 89,909 98,855 108,589 EBITDA 2,836 2,741 3.5 4,031 (29.6) 10,159 10,215 13,474 15,760 19,023 APAT 1327 1742 (23.8) 2349 (43.5) 4,416 5,527 7,436 8,768 11,387 Diluted EPS (Rs) 1.8 2.4 (23.8) 3.2 (43.5) 6.1 7.6 10.2 12.1 15.7 P/E (x) 88.8 70.9 52.7 44.7 34.4 EV / EBITDA (x) 42.5 41.5 31.0 26.1 21.2 RoE (%) 24.2 24.9 26.4 24.6 24.9

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY ALCO-BEV CMP (as on 30 May 2019) Rs 540 Target Price Rs 650 Nifty 11,946

Sensex 39,832

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg UNSP IN

No. of Shares (mn) 727

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 392/5,609

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 917

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 716/438

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (1.2) (19.8) (20.3)

Relative (%) (12.3) (29.8) (34.4)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-18 Mar-19

Promoters 56.8 56.8 FIs & Local MFs 4.9 5.2 FPIs 23.1 22.6 Public & Others 15.3 15.5 Pledged Shares* 1.9 2.0 Source : BSE, * % of total

Himanshu Shah [email protected] +91-22-6171-7315

Page 2: BUY - HDFC securities Spirits - 4QFY19 - HDFC sec...increase in glass bottle and ENA prices. Mgmt highlighted that most the of cost inflation is . behind Despite increase in RM prices,

UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 2

Quarterly Financial Snapshot: Standalone

4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 % chg YoY % chg QoQ

Gross Revenue 69,004 64,152 71,282 77,636 72,156 4.6 (7.1)

(-) Excise duty 47,267 44,033 49,001 52,627 49,656 5.1 (5.6) Net Revenue 21,737 20,119 22,281 25,009 22,500 3.5 (10.0)

Raw Material Costs 10,880 10,000 11,070 12,840 12,038 10.6 (6.2) Gross Profit 10,857 10,119 11,211 12,169 10,462 (3.6) (14.0)

Employee Expenses 1,853 1,688 1,414 1,587 1,704 (8.0) 7.4 Advertisement & promotion 2,207 2,112 2,005 2,671 1,799 (18.5) (32.6)

Other Expenses 4,056 4,036 3,468 3,880 4,123 1.7 6.3 Total Other Opex 8,116 7,836 6,887 8,138 7,626 (6.0) (6.3) EBITDA 2,741 2,283 4,324 4,031 2,836 3.5 (29.6)

D&A 367 339 350 355 401 9.3 13.0 Interest Costs 591 559 415 552 605 2.4 9.6 Other Income 1,210 214 249 284 119 (90.2) (58.1)

PBT 2,993 1,599 3,808 3,408 1,949 (34.9) (42.8) Tax 1,251 426 1,221 1,059 622 (50.3) (41.3) APAT 1,742 1,173 2,587 2,349 1,327 (23.8) (43.5)

Eo gain/(Loss) 368 (360) - (425) (65) (117.7) (84.7) RPAT 2,110 813 2,587 1,924 1,262 (40.2) (34.4) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

We have adjusted ~Rs 553mn of provision for uncertainty on VAT refund from Bihar government in other expenses in 3QFY19 Decline in gross profit offset by lower employee costs and A&P spend Decline in A&P YoY w7e believe is owing to election led disruption and higher investments in earlier quarter Lower other income as 4QFY18 included income from sale of properties, interest from RCB etc

Page 3: BUY - HDFC securities Spirits - 4QFY19 - HDFC sec...increase in glass bottle and ENA prices. Mgmt highlighted that most the of cost inflation is . behind Despite increase in RM prices,

UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 3

Common Size Statement

4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 YoY chg (Bps) QoQ chg (Bps)

Net Revenue 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 - - Raw Material Costs 50.1 49.7 49.7 51.3 53.5 345 216

Gross Profit 49.9 50.3 50.3 48.7 46.5 (345) (216)

Employee Expenses 8.5 8.4 6.3 6.3 7.6 (95) 123 Advertisement & promotion 10.2 10.5 9.0 10.7 8.0 (216) (268) Other Expenses 18.7 20.1 15.6 15.5 18.3 (33) 281 Other Operating Expenses 37.3 38.9 30.9 32.5 33.9 (344) 135

EBITDA 12.6 11.3 19.4 16.1 12.6 (1) (351)

D&A 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.8 9 36 Interest Costs 2.7 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.7 (3) 48 Other Income 5.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.5 (504) (61) PBT 13.8 7.9 17.1 13.6 8.7 (511) (496) Tax 5.8 2.1 5.5 4.2 2.8 (299) (147) APAT 8.0 5.8 11.6 9.4 5.9 (212) (349)

Eo gain/(Loss) 1.7 (1.8) - (1.7) (0.3) (198) 141 RPAT 9.7 4.0 11.6 7.7 5.6 (410) (208) Tax as % of PBT 41.8 26.6 32.1 31.1 31.9 (988) 84 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

The gross margins saw 345bps dip YoY, owing to glass price increase and marginal rise in ENA prices Yet, EBITDA margin were flat YoY on account of controlled other opex

Page 4: BUY - HDFC securities Spirits - 4QFY19 - HDFC sec...increase in glass bottle and ENA prices. Mgmt highlighted that most the of cost inflation is . behind Despite increase in RM prices,

UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 4

Operating KPIs Volumes (Mn Cases) 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 % chg YoY % chg QoQ Prestige & Above 9.8 9.5 10.5 11.1 10.5 7.1 (5.4) Popular 11.1 8.7 9.9 10.8 10.6 (4.5) (1.9) Total 20.9 18.2 20.4 21.9 21.1 1.0 (3.7) Net Revenue (Rs Mn) Prestige & Above 13,400 13,090 15,060 16,510 14,430 7.7 (12.6) Popular 7,780 6,290 7,110 7,760 7,650 (1.7) (1.4) Other Operating Income 557 739 111 739 420 (24.6) (43.2) Total 21,737 20,119 22,281 25,009 22,500 3.5 (10.0) Realization/case (Rs) Prestige & Above 1,367 1,378 1,434 1,487 1,374 0.5 (7.6) Popular 701 723 718 719 722 3.0 0.4 Total 1,040 1,105 1,092 1,142 1,066 2.5 (6.6)

Gross Profit/case (Rs) 507 543 550 556 496 (2.3) (10.8) EBITDA/case (Rs) 131 106 212 184 134 2.5 (27.0) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Prestige & Above segment grew ~7% YoY owing to increased premiumisation and investments in A&P Decline in GP/case owing to higher RM prices

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UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 5

Revision In Estimates

New Old Change FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

Volumes (Mn Cases) 86.4 91.3 85.8 90.6 0.7 0.7 - P&A 45.6 49.7 45.4 49.0 0.4 1.3 - Popular 40.8 41.6 40.4 41.6 1.1 0.1 Realization/Case (Rs) 1,120 1,166 1,128 1,173 (0.7) (0.6) - P&A 1,469 1,520 1,475 1,527 (0.4) (0.4) - Popular 731 742 737 756 (0.9) (1.8) Standalone (Rs Mn) Revenue 98,855 108,589 98,945 108,548 (0.1) 0.0 - P&A 66,919 75,494 66,958 74,846 (0.1) 0.9 - Popular 29,827 30,880 29,773 31,433 0.2 (1.8) - Other operating income 2,109 2,215 2,214 2,269 (4.7) (2.4) EBITDA 15,760 19,023 15,645 18,632 0.7 2.1 EBITDA Margin % 15.9 17.5 15.8 17.2 13 bps 35 bps PAT 8,768 11,387 9,001 11,439 (2.6) (0.5) EPS 12.1 15.7 12.4 15.7 (2.6) (0.5) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Set Comparison

FMCG companies Mcap (Rs bn)

CMP* (Rs) Rating TP

(Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE %

FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E Britannia Industries 694 2,887 NEU 3101 60.0 51.1 41.9 19.9 15.7 12.5 33.5 34.4 33.2 Colgate Palmolive 316 1,159 NEU 1,227 41.8 36.9 32.0 21.1 17.3 14.7 50.0 51.6 49.8 Dabur India 698 396 BUY 464 48.4 38.7 32.5 12.0 10.3 8.9 25.0 28.6 29.4 Emami 156 343 BUY 506 31.1 25.4 21.7 7.5 7.2 6.8 24.4 28.8 32.3 Hindustan Unilever 3,854 1,784 NEU 1,804 63.4 53.5 43.8 47.0 10.2 9.7 78.5 29.8 22.6 ITC 3,538 289 BUY 398 27.7 25.5 23.2 6.1 5.6 5.1 23.2 23.0 23.0 Marico 471 365 BUY 386 50.5 40.8 33.7 16.6 14.5 12.6 34.6 38.0 39.9 Jubilant Foodworks 174 1,322 BUY 1,739 57.1 48.7 40.4 13.3 10.8 8.8 26.1 24.5 24.0 United Spirits 392 540 BUY 650 52.7 44.7 34.4 12.5 9.8 7.6 26.4 24.6 24.9 United Breweries 357 1,350 NR NR 63.4 53.1 41.7 11.8 10.4 9.5 19.7 20.9 23.8 Radico Khaitan 45 341 BUY 478 25.1 22.5 19.3 3.6 3.1 2.7 15.3 14.9 15.2 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Nominal change in our FY20/21E Revenue/EBITDA and PAT

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UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 6

Valuation Snapshot: UNSP FY21E Standalone EPS 15.7 Target Multiple (x) 40 Target Price (Rs) (A) 627 Non-core assets (Rs) (B) 11 RCB (Rs) (C) 11 Pioneer Distillery (Rs) (D) 1 Target Price (Rs) (A+B+C+D) 650 CMP (Rs) 540 Upside/Downside (%) 20.4 Valuation of other businesses RCB (Rs mn) Non-core assets Pioneer Distilleries EBITDA 1,250

UNSP treasury shares (17.3mn @ Rs 540) 9,332 O/s shares (Mn) 13.4

Net Debt* - Flats/factories etc (Rs Mn) 6,000 CMP (Rs) 127 Interest - Non core assets value (Rs Mn) 15,332 Mcap (Rs Mn) 1,700

PBT 1,250 (-) discount owing to legal disputes and timing uncertainity 50% UNSP holding (%) 75%

PAT 813 Non core assets value (Rs Mn) 7,666 Implied value for UNSP (Rs Mn) 1,275 Tgt Multiple (x) 20 UNSP O/s shares (Mn) 727 (-) Holdco discount 50% RCB Value 16,250 Value per share (Rs) 11 Value considered for UNSP (Rs Mn) 850 (-) Hold Co discount 50% UNSP O/s shares (Mn) 727 RCB Value 8,125 Value per share (Rs) 1 UNSP O/s shares (Mn) 727 Value per share (Rs) 11 * Entire debt is from UNSP and thus not considered

We value UNSP at 40x FY21E EPS

Page 7: BUY - HDFC securities Spirits - 4QFY19 - HDFC sec...increase in glass bottle and ENA prices. Mgmt highlighted that most the of cost inflation is . behind Despite increase in RM prices,

UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 7

Key Model Assumptions

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR FY19-21E

Volumes (Mn Cases) 90.1 78.5 81.6 86.4 91.3 5.8 - P&A 36.8 37.2 41.6 45.6 49.7 9.2 - Popular 53.3 41.3 40.0 40.8 41.6 2.0

Realization/Case (Rs) 936 1,021 1,077 1,120 1,166 4.0 - P&A 1,358 1,378 1,420 1,469 1,520 3.5 - Popular 644 698 720 731 742 1.5

Revenue (Rs Mn) 85,936 81,701 89,909 98,855 108,589 9.9 - P&A 49,960 51,280 59,090 66,919 75,494 13.0 - Popular 34,330 28,830 28,810 29,827 30,880 3.5 - Other operating income 1,646 1,591 2,009 2,109 2,215 5.0 Raw Material costs 48,844 41,980 45,948 51,116 55,497 9.9 Gross Profit 37,092 39,721 43,961 47,739 53,091 9.9 % of revenue 43.2 48.6 48.9 48.3 48.9 Advtg & Prom 6,668 7,882 8,587 9,231 9,923 7.5 % of revenue 7.8% 9.6% 9.6% 9.3% 9.1% Employee costs 6,674 6,601 6,393 6,617 6,848 3.5 % of revenue 7.8% 8.1% 7.1% 6.7% 6.3% Other operating expenses 13,591 15,023 15,507 16,131 17,297 5.6 % of revenue 15.8% 18.4% 17.2% 16.3% 15.9% Total operating expenses 26,934 29,506 30,487 31,979 34,069 5.7 % of revenue 31.3% 36.1% 33.9% 32.3% 31.4% EBITDA 10,159 10,215 13,474 15,760 19,023 18.8 % of revenue 11.8% 12.5% 15.0% 15.9% 17.5%

Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research

Volume growth and price/mix improvement is the key We believe in the longer run UNSP has opportunity for reduction in A&P spend as well as other operating expenses

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UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

Page | 8

Standalone Income Statement Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 85,936 81,701 89,909 98,855 108,589 Growth (%) 4.2 (4.9) 10.0 10.0 9.8 Raw Material Expenses 48,844 41,980 45,948 51,116 55,497 Employee Expenses 6,674 6,601 6,393 6,617 6,848 Other Operating Expenses 20,259 22,905 24,094 25,362 27,220 Total Operating Expenses 75,778 71,486 76,435 83,095 89,566 EBITDA 10,159 10,215 13,474 15,760 19,023 EBITDA Margin (%) 11.8 12.5 15.0 15.9 17.5 EBITDA Growth (%) 14.7 0.6 31.9 17.0 20.7 Depreciation 1,324 1,351 1,445 1,431 1,416 EBIT 8,835 8,864 12,029 14,330 17,607 Other Income (Including EO Items) 1,111 2,060 866 844 886 Interest 3,690 2,611 2,131 1,989 1,369 PBT 6,256 8,313 10,764 13,185 17,123 Tax (Incl Deferred) 1,839 2,786 3,328 4,417 5,736 APAT 4,416 5,527 7,436 8,768 11,387 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (2,730) (40) (850) - - RPAT 1,687 5,487 6,586 8,768 11,387 APAT Growth (%) 93.2 25.1 34.5 17.9 29.9 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 6.1 7.6 10.2 12.1 15.7 EPS Growth (%) 93.2 25.1 34.5 17.9 29.9

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Standalone Balance Sheet As at March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 1,453 1,453 1,453 1,453 1,453 Reserves 17,925 23,585 29,862 38,630 50,017 Total Shareholders’ Funds 19,378 25,038 31,315 40,083 51,470 Long Term Debt 8,569 7,527 7,643 6,497 4,872 Short Term Debt 31,772 25,127 18,246 14,613 8,811 Total Debt 40,341 32,654 25,889 21,109 13,683 Other Noncurrent liabilities 422 512 518 570 627 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 60,141 58,204 57,722 61,762 65,780 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 12,723 11,001 12,453 11,980 11,594 Investments in subsidiaries 3,238 2,775 2,984 2,835 2,693 Other non-current assets 15,161 18,589 22,114 23,241 24,534 Total Non-current Assets 31,122 32,365 37,551 38,055 38,821 Inventories 18,538 18,694 18,767 20,093 21,476 Debtors 29,605 26,998 25,181 29,041 33,388 Other Current Assets 7,861 5,738 4,536 4,987 5,478 Total Current Assets 56,004 51,430 48,484 54,121 60,342 Creditors 11,798 13,935 13,360 14,689 16,136 Other Current Liabilities 16,026 14,271 15,541 17,088 18,775 Total Current Liabilities 27,824 28,206 28,901 31,778 34,910 Net Current Assets 28,180 23,224 19,583 22,343 25,432 Cash & Equivalents 523 1,198 588 1,364 1,527 Assets classified as held for sale 316 1,417 - - - TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 60,141 58,204 57,722 61,762 65,780

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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UNITED SPIRITS : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Standalone Cash Flows Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E PBT 6,256 8,313 10,764 13,185 17,123 Non-operating & EO Items (1,111) (2,060) (866) (844) (886) Interest 3,690 2,611 2,131 1,989 1,369 Depreciation 1,324 1,351 1,445 1,431 1,416 Working Capital Change 593 4,956 3,641 (2,760) (3,089) Tax Paid (1,839) (2,786) (3,328) (4,417) (5,736) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 8,912 12,385 13,787 8,584 10,198 Capex (836) 371 (2,897) (957) (1,030) Free cash flow (FCF) 8,077 12,756 10,890 7,626 9,167 Investments (1,277) (3,976) (2,311) (926) (1,095) Non-operating Income (1,618) 2,020 16 844 886 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (3,731) (1,585) (5,192) (1,039) (1,239) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (1,657) (7,687) (6,765) (4,780) (7,426) Interest Expenses (3,690) (2,611) (2,131) (1,989) (1,369) FCFE (9,078) (11,883) (14,088) (7,808) (10,035) Share Capital Issuance - - - - - Dividend - - - - - Others 551 173 (309) - (0) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (4,796) (10,125) (9,205) (6,769) (8,795) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 385 675 (610) 776 163 Closing Cash 523 1,198 588 1,364 1,527 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) Gross Profit Margin 43.2 48.6 48.9 48.3 48.9 EBITDA Margin 11.8 12.5 15.0 15.9 17.5 EBIT Margin 10.3 10.8 13.4 14.5 16.2 APAT Margin 5.1 6.8 8.3 8.9 10.5 RoE 24.2 24.9 26.4 24.6 24.9 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 11.1 10.7 14.6 15.6 18.6 RoCE 10.9 10.5 14.4 15.5 18.4 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 29.4 33.5 30.9 33.5 33.5 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 6.8 7.4 7.2 8.3 9.4 Inventory (days) 79 84 76 74 72 Debtors (days) 126 121 102 107 112 Other current assets (days) 33 26 18 18 18 Payables (days) 50 62 54 54 54 Other current liabilities (days) 68 64 63 63 63 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 120 104 80 82 85 Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 3.9 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.6 Net D/E (x) 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 Interest Coverage (x) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 6.1 7.6 10.2 12.1 15.7 CEPS 7.9 9.5 12.2 14.0 17.6 Dividend - - - - - Book Value 26.7 34.5 43.1 55.2 70.8 VALUATION P/E (x) 88.8 70.9 52.7 44.7 34.4 P/BV (x) 20.2 15.7 12.5 9.8 7.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 42.5 41.5 31.0 26.1 21.2 EV/Revenues (x) 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.2 3.7 OCF/EV (%) 2.1 2.9 3.3 2.1 2.5 FCF/EV (%) 1.9 3.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) (2.3) (3.0) (3.6) (2.0) (2.6) Dividend Yield (%) - - - - - Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 28-May-18 650 SELL 570

9-Jul-18 636 SELL 570 12-Jul-18 620 SELL 570 24-Jul-18 582 SELL 530 10-Oct-18 463 BUY 565 1-Nov-18 620 NEU 627 9-Jan-19 600 NEU 615

24-Jan-19 573 NEU 619 10-Apr-19 544 BUY 650 31-May-19 540 BUY 650

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

300350400450500550600650700750800

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug-

18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec-

18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-

19

May

-19

United Spirits TP

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Disclosure: I, Himanshu Shah, CA, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. 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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com