cal academy talk, march 9, 2017

SF, March 9, 2017

Connecting natural infrastructure science to

sustainability of coastal populations:

example of coral reefs

Borja. G. Reguero, PhD

M.W. Beck, S. Narayan, J. Raepple

K. McLeod, F. Secaira

With …

1. TNC & CRR

2. What is “natural” infrastructure?

3. How we assess Risk & the Economics of Adaptation

4. Coral reefs as natural infrastructure. Example 1. Making the case

5. Coral reefs as natural infrastructure. Example 2. Restoration

1. Conclusions, open questions, future research

K. McLeod & M.W. Beck

Coastal Funding for Conservation & Infrastructure (10 Yrs)

Why?we spend nearly 30 times more on (re)building coastal gray infrastructure around the world than we do on coastal conservation (green infrastructure).

Blog post McCreless and Beck (2017)

1-3%?

http://blog.nature.org/science/2017/03/06/assessing-our-coastal-green-infrastructure-investment-allocation-a-coastal-portfolio-check-up/

o Applications

o Science

o Outreach

Risk Reduction

Climate Adaptation Conservation

And Environmental

Goals

New Priorities and

Actions

o Innovative financing

What?

EcoDRR

EbAEcosystem-basedAdaptation

Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction

1. TNC & CRR






12

Coastal Engineering with Natural Infrastructure: Example

UC SANTA CRUZ | THE NATURE CONSERVANCY

How much do we need to raise our defenses?

Opportunity:

Can we Use NNBD cover this “protection deficit”?

Eco-engineering: Connections

1. Risk deficit requires all options.

2. New Era of Sustainable Development: Stronger global interest and demand

then ever before (SFDRR 2015-2030, SDGs, UNFCCC, Adaptation Fund,

UNISDR, etc.).

3. Tremendous infrastructure upgrading globally.

4. Environmental degradation increases Risk

Opportune time for cross-disciplinary integration (planners, ecologists,

engineers) with multiple objectives/outcomes.

15

Coastal Engineering Typologies


Traditional Grey Infrastructure

Wave Attenuation Physical Protection

Nature-Based Approaches

Wave Attenuation Physical Protection

Beach & Dune Systems, Island Barriers

Short

Waves

Long

Waves

Reefs (Coral/Oyster)

Coastal Vegetation Coastal Vegetation• Saltmarshes / Wetlands

• Mangroves

• Seagrasses / Kelp

• Coastal Forests

1. TNC & CRR






17UC SANTA CRUZ | THE NATURE CONSERVANCY

Reefs

Wind-Waves

• Global coral reefs

• Mexico Quintana Roo Mesoamerican

Reef

• USA territories – High Res (ongoing)

• Puerto Morelos – High Res (ongoing)

Coastal Vegetation: Wetland &

Mangroves

Storm Surge

• US-Sandy (Lloyd’s, RMS)

• Philippines Mangroves (World Bank-

WAVES; ongoing)

• Global Mangroves (ongoing)

• Gulf of Mexico

• US Mexico – Quintana Roo (ongoing)

• Reef and Wetland restoration cases

http://oceanwealth.org

http://maps.coastalresilience.org

Project Portfolio (2014+)

Dollar-value of existing ecosystems for RR

Dollar-value of “New Green” for RR


Economics of Coastal AdaptationQuantification Framework

Hazard Socioec. Exposure Damages

• How strong?

• How frequent?• How well built? • Where?

• What?

• How many?

RISK

Future?Future?

ADAPTATION

Attenuate hazard Modify Damage

functionDistribution of

assets

Ad

ap

tati

on

to

Cli

ma

te

Ch

an

ge

Be

ne

fit/

Co

s

Benefit (Net present value of damages averted)

Reguero et al (in review)

Ex. US Gulf CoastRisk and Drivers

High economic growth

Economics of Coastal AdaptationGulf of Mexico Example – Cost : Benefit Analysis


Valuation

Total Climate Risk $162.2bn. Values for the Year 2030 (assuming low economic pathway; 2% disc rate)

Source Reguero, Beck, Bresch, et al (2016)

Reguero et al (in review)

Connecting Risk to social aspects

How risk changes when we consider Social Vulnerability?

1. TNC & CRR



4. Coral reefs as natural infrastructure. Example 1.

Making the case



Mesoamerican Reef in Mexico

Pta. Cancun

Pto. Morelos

Reefs in coastal protection

Lowe and Falter (2015)


Mapping Ocean WealthQuantification Framework

Hazard Socioec. Exposure Damages

• How strong?

• How frequent?• How well built? • Where?

• What?

• How many?

RISK

1. Role of the Ecosystem in coastal

protection

2. Loss of Ecosystem


Mapping Ocean WealthQuintana Roo Example: Hazard

1. Simulate Storms

Random walks using the historical

record of1851-2014 (from over 1,500

historical records, a statistical set of

25,000 storms)

2. Footprint of Each Storm

Wind, Rainfall, Waves and Storm

Surge (*) parametrical models

corrected with UNAM numerical

simulations with stationary winds

3. Calculate Statistics: Return Periods

Frequency curves for each hazard

and the Total Water Level


Mapping Ocean WealthQuintana Roo Example: Exposure

1. Population (present and future)

2. Built Capital (residential, industrial, services & Government)

3. Hotels


Mapping Ocean WealthQuintana Roo Example: Damage Calculation

1. Define the hazard

2. Model the effect

on reefs & dunes

3. Calculate

damages on

flooding on

exposure

4. Repeat with no

ecosystem

5. For all scenarios

v

v

1 m

v

1 m

Modeling Reef Loss

Loss in

(1) geometry and

(2) friction

Biodiversity?

30

Mapping Ocean WealthQuintana Roo Example: Risk

58 89

160

282 337

424

15

23

31

20

30

35 25%26%

19%

7%9… 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

10 25 50 100 175 250

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

cu

rre

nt

ris

k

Mil

l U

SD

Return Periods (yr)

with reef no reef Percentage of change

Value of Reef

• Benefit for 1-in-25 yr loss = 23 mill $ (+47.9 mill$)

• AEB= 3.2 mill $/yr (+6.7 mill $/yr)

Emily

(2005)

Dean

(2007)

Wilma

(2005)

Not only damages

“Identification of

areas of influence

of the reef”

WD4R

RegionalO(500km) O(50 km) O(5 km)

LocalO(50km)

RestorationO(5km)

Asess value of the

infrastructure

Design a functional

solution

1. TNC & CRR




5. Coral reefs as natural infrastructure. Example 2.

Restoration


Current & sediment tranport

Mangrove Lost

1. Movement of sediment SW for a period of 30 yr (confirmed by locals &

Field inspection (28 Jan.) and local reporting

The Coastal Problem

37

How the reefs work in the bay

Waves

Hsu and Evans (1989); Gonzalez and Medina (2001);Hsu et al (2010)

An unrecognized role in stabilizing the shoreline

1.Lower Energy

2.Less tangential to shoreLikely outer reef storm

damage & erosion led to:

DEGRADATION COASTAL PROBLEMS!

Reefs for coastal protection

Navigating the barge

Unloading a barge

Divers carrying and packing the baskets

The reef at low tide

2-tier pilot submerged breakwater structure (this one with blocks) with corals from the nursery placed along their sides

Fish usage is high, and

continues to attract

attention from the local

fishers

2016

2017 – in 2 weeks…

Coral transplants have stabilized or

the rate of loss has decreased

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGZs-JT1NJA&feature=youtu.be

Conclusions

• Ecosystems have an economic (and social) value as natural infrastructure

• We are able to model the (i) hydrodynamics and the (ii) economics of ecosystems

• But, we need to connect ecosystem health to people-value (e.g. environmental degradation increases risk)

• And we need pilot studies to design innovative approaches

• There are also significant challenges…. (shift in planning, regulatory framework, knowledge gaps, financing, etc).

v

vQ1. Damage to the reef (i.e. fragility curves for ecosystems?, when do they break/fail?)

Q2. How biodiversity (a functional ecosystem) is connected to the ecosystem services (e.g. coastal protection)?

Q3. What hydrodynamic conditions are better for reef survival?(e.g. waves and currents water Temperature?)

Open Questions for reefs

Contact Borja G. Reguero Email

[email protected]


Thank youGracias

[email protected]