calculation of volume growth rate from fdot district 1 regional … · 2017-10-11 · ref: 62660.00...

Ref: 62660.00 June 30, 2017 Attachment 1

Calculation of Volume Growth Rate from FDOT District 1 Regional Planning

Model

Facility FLTO

Site From To

Existing

AADT

(2016)1

Model

Output

(2040)2

AADT

Forecast

(2040)3

Annual

Growth

Goodlette-Frank

Rd

034010 Fleischmann Blvd 7th Ave N 39,000 60,141 52,000 1.39%

034569 Central Ave 5th Ave S 28,000 49,319 43,000 2.23%

9th St S/US 41 035029

Golden Gate

Pkwy

Fleischmann

Blvd 39,500 50,934 44,000 0.47%

035007 7th Ave N 5th Ave N 34,000 55,391 48,000 1.72%

Golden Gate Pkwy 034530 US 41 Goodlette-Frank

Rd 23,000 29,352 26,000 0.54%

US 41/5th Ave S

030123 10th St S Goodlette-Frank

Rd 38,000 66,525 58,000 2.19%

030124 Goodlette-Frank

Rd Davis Blvd 57,000 96,023 84,000 1.97%

035001 Davis Blvd Commercial Dr 34,500 55,989 49,000 1.75%

Average 1.53%

1: Florida Traffic Online 2016 AADT

2: FDOT District 1 Regional Planning Model 2040 Forecasts (average volume forecast of all links in segment).

3: FDOT District 1 Regional Planning Model 2040 AADT Forecasts (adjusted using MOCF of 0.87 and rounded)


Calculation of Socioeconomic Growth Rate from FDOT District 1 Regional

Planning Model

Zone

2010 2040

Population Employment

Population

&

Employment


Population

&

Employment

1580 8 53 61 141 64 205

1581 0 104 104 0 128 128

1582 0 25 25 0 31 31

1583 0 104 104 0 141 141

1585 2 127 129 278 520 798

1586 0 220 220 0 324 324

1587 0 124 124 0 185 185

1588 0 66 66 0 128 128

1589 6 60 66 6 87 93

1590 0 3,337 3,337 0 3,281 3,281

1591 4 486 490 4 722 726

1592 38 590 628 46 654 700

1593 0 70 70 0 88 88

1594 45 645 690 50 955 1,005

1595 24 64 88 27 75 102

1597 0 4,249 4,249 0 5,238 5,238

1599 342 274 616 472 275 747

1600 367 2 369 402 2 404

1601 102 11 113 109 11 120

1603 30 398 428 34 577 611

1604 476 18 494 512 18 530

1605 0 124 124 0 123 123

1606 48 220 268 51 219 270

1608 30 93 123 271 129 400

1609 0 164 164 0 252 252

1610 21 185 206 24 200 224

1621 0 59 59 0 59 59

1623 256 13 269 274 13 287

1627 468 206 674 519 203 722

1634 64 0 64 70 0 70

1640 164 156 320 177 134 311


Zone

2010 2040


Population

&

Employment


Population

&

Employment

1641 354 662 1,016 401 651 1,052

1643 98 323 421 259 102 361

1644 0 23 23 710 71 781

1645 0 10 10 552 48 600

1646 573 146 719 1,338 178 1,516

1700 474 1,483 1,957 984 1,948 2,932

2016 40 49 89 52 54 106

2017 85 136 221 91 142 233

2018 59 3 62 62 3 65

2019 250 3 253 273 3 276

2020 16 0 16 18 0 18

2021 29 12 41 33 12 45

2022 219 58 277 240 57 297

2023 50 0 50 53 0 53

2027 29 43 72 30 42 72

2030 213 10 223 229 10 239

2032 0 16 16 0 81 81

2033 0 0 0 0 30 30

2034 15 98 113 16 107 123

2041 297 9 306 318 9 327

2042 192 367 559 206 361 567

2044 276 171 447 296 168 464

2046 0 0 0 104 0 104

Study Area Total 5,764 15,869 21,633 9,732 18,913 28,645

Study Area Average Annual Growth Rate 2.29% 0.64% 1.08%


Calculation of Peak-Season Peak-Hour Growth Rate from City of Naples Data

YEAR GOLDEN

GATE

GOODLETTE

ROAD

US 41 (N OF

CR886)

US 41 (S OF

CR886)

US 41 (6 AV N/7

AV N)

US 41 (W OF

CR8 51)

US 41 (E OF

CR8 51) SUM

1995 1,521 3,684 3,824 4,364 3,164 2,867 5,439 24,863

1996 1,614 4,235 4,209 3,860 3,346 4,301 5,552 27,117

1997 1,593 3,416 3,727 3,612 3,154 3,365 5,215 24,082

1998 2,231 3,235 3,937 3,812 3,208 2,794 3,753 22,970

1999 1,876 3,096 3,859 3,476 3,048 2,775 4,970 23,100

2000 1,825 3,202 3,889 3,744 3,366 3,105 4,598 23,729

2002 1,995 3,616 4,440 3,775 3,532 3,750 5,684 26,792

2003 2,067 3,666 4,413 3,862 3,464 3,847 5,700 27,019

2004 1,936 3,129 4,417 3,822 3,508 3,834 6,122 26,768

2005 2,044 2,961 4,623 3,626 3,595 3,795 5,824 26,468

2006 1,857 2,871 4,384 4,038 3,680 4,025 6,275 27,130

2007 1,653 2,921 3,997 4,026 3,616 4,394 6,343 26,950

2008 1,878 2,922 4,169 3,956 3,578 3,742 5,796 26,041

2009 1,755 3,191 3,938 3,760 3,401 3,692 5,464 25,201

2010 1,944 2,872 4,175 3,985 3,719 3,759 5,682 26,136

2011 1,969 2,713 3,906 3,715 3,419 3,732 5,480 24,934

2012 1,958 3,305 3,864 3,741 3,476 3,737 5,523 25,604

2013 2,061 3,280 3,778 3,633 3,363 3,775 5,299 25,189

2014 2,114 3,088 3,907 3,683 3,442 3,665 5,301 25,200

2015 2,184 3,100 3,748 3,570 3,257 3,775 5,649 25,283

2016 2,136 3,317 3,809 3,251 3,265 3,596 5,617 24,991

Linear Trend – Annual Growth Rate 0.13%


Trends Analysis Growth Rate Summary from FTI

FLTO

Site Location

Historic

Year

(2006)

AADT

Base

Year

(2015)

AADT

Forecast

Year

(2040)

AADT

Linear

Growth

Rate

R2

030123

SR90/US41 W OF CR851/GOODLETTE (W OF 12TH ST)

NP23 39,300 34,900 22,800 -1.24% 0.34

030124

SR 90/US 41, SOUTHEAST OF CR 851/GOODLETTE RD

NP24 60,200 48,600 16,500 -2.64% 0.54

034010

GOODLETTE-FRANK RD, 500 FT S OF FLEISCHMANN

BLVD 34,000 34,900 38,000 0.36% 0.06

034101 BANYAN BLVD, 125 FT E OF GULF SHORE BLVD N 4,300 2,000 -12,800

-

29.60% 0.77

034102

GULF SHORE BLVD S, 200 FT N OF BROAD AVE S

(HPMS ID: 030000080100) 2,900 3,500 7,500 4.57% 0.80

034103 5TH AVE S, 170 FT E OF GULF SHORE BLVD S 1,900 3,600 14,400 12.00% 0.78

034199 BANYAN BLVD., E OF GULF SHORE BLVD. 2,700 3,300 8,500 6.30% 0.60

034530

GOLDEN GATE PKWY/CR 886, WEST OF GOODLETTE

RD/CR 851 CC 530 24,700 19,500 1,200 -3.75% 0.47

034569

CR-851/GOODLETTE RD, S OF FIRST AVE SOUTH CC

569 26,100 25,400 22,700 -0.43% 0.05

035001

SR 90/US 41, SE OF SR 84/DAVIS BOULEVARD

CC545 35,300 32,500 24,600 -0.97% 0.19

035007

SR 45/US 41, SOUTH OF 7TH AVENUE NORTH NP

19 37,500 30,700 16,600 -1.84% 0.33

035011

SR 45/US 41, NORTH OF CR886/GOLDEN GATE PKWY

NP15 44,000 37,200 18,400 -2.02% 0.36

035029

SR 45/US 41, N OF FLEISCHMANN & S OF CR 886

NP16 39,600 36,500 28,100 -0.92% 0.16

FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2006 41000 39300

2007 42000 38800

2008 37500 38300

2009 35500 37800

2010 35000 37300

2011 35000 36900

2012 35500 36400

2013 35500 35900

2014 36500 35400

2015 37500 34900

2020 N/A 32500

2030 N/A 27600

-485 2040 N/A 22800

34.39%

-1.24%

-1.39%

23-Jun-17

Highway:

Traffic Trends - V3.00 County:

Station #:

Straight Line Growth Option*Axle-Adjusted

2040 Design Year Trend

TRANPLAN Forecasts/Trends

** Annual Trend Increase:

Trend R-squared:

Trend Growth Rate (2015 to Design Year):

Printed:

Trend Annual Historic Growth Rate:

Collier (03)

0123

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

SR 90-TAMIAMI TRAIL

2020 Opening Year Trend

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve

Ref: 62660.00 Attachment 4

FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2006 64000 60200

2007 63500 58900

2008 56500 57600

2009 53000 56300

2010 50000 55000

2011 50000 53800

2012 50000 52500

2013 51500 51200

2014 53500 49900

2015 52000 48600

2020 N/A 42200

2030 N/A 29300

-1,285 2040 N/A 16500

53.54%

-2.14%

-2.64%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

0124

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

SR90/TAMIAMI TRAIL


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2008 35500 34000

2009 34500 34100

2010 33500 34300

2011 33500 34400

2012 33500 34500

2013 33500 34600

2014 34500 34800

2015 37000 34900

2020 N/A 35500

2030 N/A 36800

125 2040 N/A 38000

5.85%

0.38%

0.36%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

4010

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

GOODLETTE FRANK RD


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2011 4000 4300

2012 3900 3800

2013 3900 3200

2014 2000 2600

2015 2000 2000

2020 N/A -1000

2030 N/A -6900

-590 2040 N/A -12800

77.49%

-13.37%

-29.60%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

4101

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

BANYAN BLVD/12TH AVE


-14000

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2011 3000 2900

2012 3000 3000

2013 3000 3200

2014 3400 3400

2015 3600 3500

2020 N/A 4300

2030 N/A 5900

160 2040 N/A 7500

80.00%

5.17%

4.57%

23-Jun-17

Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

4102

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

GULF SHORE BLVD


Highway:


Station #:





0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2011 2200 1900

2012 2200 2300

2013 2200 2800

2014 3500 3200

2015 3700 3600

2020 N/A 5800

2030 N/A 10100

430 2040 N/A 14400

77.95%

22.37%

12.00%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

4103

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

S 5TH AVE


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2012 2800 2700

2013 2800 2900

2014 2800 3100

2015 3500 3300

2020 N/A 4300

2030 N/A 6400

210 2040 N/A 8500

60.00%

7.41%

6.30%

23-Jun-17

Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

4199

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

BANYAN BLVD/12TH AVE


Highway:


Station #:





0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2008 26000 24700

2009 25000 23900

2010 24000 23200

2011 19700 22500

2012 19500 21700

2013 19500 21000

2014 21000 20300

2015 22000 19500

2020 N/A 15800

2030 N/A 8500

-735 2040 N/A 1200

47.48%

-3.01%

-3.75%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

4530

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

GOLDEN GATE PKWY


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2008 27500 26100

2009 26500 26000

2010 25500 25900

2011 24500 25800

2012 24500 25700

2013 24500 25600

2014 26000 25500

2015 27000 25400

2020 N/A 24800

2030 N/A 23800

-107 2040 N/A 22700

4.82%

-0.38%

-0.43%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

4569

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

CR-851/GOODLETTE RD


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2006 37500 35300

2007 37500 35000

2008 34000 34700

2009 32000 34400

2010 32000 34100

2011 32000 33700

2012 32500 33400

2013 32500 33100

2014 33500 32800

2015 35500 32500

2020 N/A 30900

2030 N/A 27800

-315 2040 N/A 24600

18.88%

-0.88%

-0.97%

23-Jun-17

Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

5001

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

SR90/TAMIAMI TRAIL


Highway:


Station #:





0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2006 37500 35700

2007 38000 35200

2008 34500 34600

2009 32000 34000

2010 32500 33500

2011 30500 32900

2012 29000 32400

2013 30500 31800

2014 33000 31200

2015 34500 30700

2020 N/A 27800

2030 N/A 22200

-564 2040 N/A 16600

33.13%

-1.56%

-1.84%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

5007

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

SR90/TAMIAMI TRAIL


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2006 47500 44000

2007 46500 43200

2008 41500 42500

2009 38500 41700

2010 38000 41000

2011 35500 40200

2012 38500 39500

2013 41000 38700

2014 38500 38000

2015 40500 37200

2020 N/A 33500

2030 N/A 25900

-752 2040 N/A 18400

36.01%

-1.72%

-2.02%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

5011

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

SR 45-TAMIAMI TRAIL


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve


FIN# 0

Location 1

Year Count* Trend**

2006 40500 39600

2007 43000 39200

2008 38500 38900

2009 36500 38600

2010 37000 38200

2011 34500 37900

2012 36500 37500

2013 37000 37200

2014 36500 36900

2015 40500 36500

2020 N/A 34900

2030 N/A 31500

-336 2040 N/A 28100

15.89%

-0.87%

-0.92%

23-Jun-17

Highway:


Station #:





Trend R-squared:


Printed:


Collier (03)

5029

Traffic (ADT/AADT)

2030 Mid-Year Trend

SR 45-TAMIAMI TRAIL


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Av

era

ge D

aily T

raff

ic (

Veh

icle

s/D

ay)

Year

Observed Count

Fitted Curve



D-Factor Calculations

Facility Segment SB NB D Factor

Average

D Factor

US 41 Goodlette-Frank to 10th Street 2,014 1,443 0.58

0.532

US 41 10th Street to 9th Street 1,355 921 0.60

US 41 5th Avenue S to 3rd Avenue S 1,222 864 0.59

US 41 3rd Avenue S to Central Avenue 1,195 902 0.57

US 41 Central Avenue to 4th Avenue N 1,334 1,128 0.54

US 41 4th Avenue N to 5th Avenue N 1,378 1,514 0.52

0.575 US 41 5th Avenue N to 7th Avenue N 1,458 1,519 0.51

US 41 7th Avenue N to Fleischmann 1,492 1,800 0.55

US 41 Fleischmann to Golden Gate 1,540 1,842 0.54

Facility Segment SB NB D Factor

Average

D Factor

Goodlette-Frank Road 5th Avenue S to 3rd Avenue S 1,435 1,144 0.56

0.540 Goodlette-Frank Road 3rd Avenue S to Central Avenue 1,393 1,164 0.54

Goodlette-Frank Road Central Avenue to 5th Avenue N 1,360 1,257 0.52

Goodlette-Frank Road 5th Avenue N to 7th Avenue N 1,442 1,544 0.52

0.564 Goodlette-Frank Road 7th Avenue N to 14th Avenue N 1,463 1,921 0.57

Goodlette-Frank Road 14th Avenue N to Fleischmann 1,577 1,983 0.56

Goodlette-Frank Road Fleischmann to Golden Gate 1,620 2,432 0.60

Facility Segment EB WB D Factor

Average

D Factor

Golden Gate Pkwy US 41 to Goodlette-Frank 1,164 797 0.59 0.590

calculation of volume growth rate from fdot district 1 regional … · 2017-10-11 · ref: 62660.00...

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