california and u.s. initiatives to mitigate greenhouse gas ... · ©national fuel cell research...
TRANSCRIPT
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 1/37
California and U.S. Initiatives to Mitigate California and U.S. Initiatives to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the
Transportation SectorTransportation Sector
Jack Brouwer, Ph.D.Associate Director
July, 2008
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 2/37
Primary Energy Engine
FuelCombustion
Engine
ExhaustFuel Combustion Engine
Thermal Energy
Exhaust
Societal Use
Air
Air
Setting the StageSetting the Stage
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 3/37
CO2 + H2O + N2 + Pollutants
GHG Smog
AirFuel Combustion
EngineExhaust
Thermal Energy
• 94% of World’s CO2 Emissions• 90% of World’s Pollutant Emissions
Source: Science Photo Library
• 80% of World’s Power
CombustionCombustion
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 4/37
Vehicle Demand ForecastVehicle Demand Forecast•• OECD vehicle populations are huge and still growingOECD vehicle populations are huge and still growing•• Demand increase is tremendous in Eastern Europe, Former Demand increase is tremendous in Eastern Europe, Former
Soviet Union, China, Latin America, Other Asia, Soviet Union, China, Latin America, Other Asia, ……
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 5/37
Factor of ~4 – 5
0 20 40 60
1.02000
2050 4.4
6.1 20%
World Population
(Billions)
8.9 60%
0.74
3.24
World Vehicle
Ownership(Billions)(%)
Year Environmental Impact
Availability of Automobile
Vehicle Demand ForecastVehicle Demand Forecast
Toyota estimates, 2006
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 6/37
WORLD ENERGY DEMANDWorld Energy Demand[Million B/D Oil Equivalent]
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2006
Other
Transportation
Industry
Electric Power
Residential and Services
Transportation
Electric Power
2000
2030
Energy Demand ForecastEnergy Demand Forecast
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 7/37
ENERGY DEMAND
SOURCE: IEA WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
WORLD ENERGY DEMAND
WORLD ENERGY DEMAND[Million B/D Oil Equivalent]
WORLD GHG INTENSITY[Billion Metric T/Y]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2030
Transportation
Residential and Services
Other
Electric Power
Industry
Electric Power
Transportation
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Intensity ForecastGreenhouse Gas (GHG) Intensity Forecast
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 8/37
#1 Green House Gas Intensity (1990)
FORCES FOR CHANGE
#2 Pollutant Impacts (1940)
#3 Hubbert’s Curve (1980)
Forces for ChangeForces for Change
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 9/37
[ Bill
ion
Bbl
/Y ]
Year2020
Petro
leum
Pro
duct
ion
Rat
eHubbertHubbert’’s Curves Curve
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 10/37
#1 Greenhouse Gas Intensity (1990)
#2 Pollutant Impacts (1940)
#3 Hubbert’s Curve (1980)
#4 Fuel Independence (9/11)
#5 National Security (9/11)
Paradigm Shifts• Electric Power• Transportation
– Fuel– Engine
• Conservation– Electrical Power– Personal Vehicle
• Building Design• Urban Design
Forces for ChangeForces for Change
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 11/37
•• 1966:1966: Automobile Emissions ControlAutomobile Emissions Control– California First in the Nation
•• 1968: Power Plant Emissions Control1968: Power Plant Emissions Control– Southern California Edison– Orange County Leading Firms
o KVB, Dynamic Science, Ultrasystems, EERC, FERCO, AUS, …o GE Environmental Serviceso GE Global Research
•• 1977:1977: South Coast Air Quality Management DistrictSouth Coast Air Quality Management District
•• 1990: CARB Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate1990: CARB Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate
•• 20042004--2005: Governor Executive Orders2005: Governor Executive Orders– S-7-04 Hydrogen Highway– S-20-04 Green Action Team– S-3-05 Climatic Action Team
•• 2006:2006: Assembly Bill 32 Assembly Bill 32 ““Global Warning Solutions ActGlobal Warning Solutions Act””
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 2000 2004 2020 2050Year
80% Reduction
1990
30% Reduction
GH
G E
mis
sion
s [M
MT
CO
2e]
AB 32
California LeadershipCalifornia Leadership
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 12/37
California LeadershipCalifornia LeadershipRecent (2003Recent (2003--2008) California Global Climate Initiatives2008) California Global Climate Initiatives• AB 1493 (2003): (Pavley) mandates 30% reduction in GHG emissions for
new light duty vehicles by 2016• AB 1007 (2005): requires plan to replace
gasoline use with low carbon alternatives• AB 32 (2006): “Global Warming Solutions Act”
aggressive goals for GHG reduction by 2020-50• SB 1368 (2006): GHG emissions standards for
IOUs and POUs• AB 2021 (2006): Energy efficiency for POUs• AB 2160 (2006): Green Building acquisition financing for state facilities• SB 107 (2006): Accelerated RPS Goals (20% by 2010)• SB 1 (2006): Renewable goals for residential and commercial structures• AB 2778 (2006): Self generation incentive program for fuel cells and wind• SB 1250 (2006): PIER renewables incentive program• EO (2007) – Governor implements Low Carbon Fuel Standard• ARB (2008) – AB 32 Plan released (June 26)
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 13/37
United States InitiativesUnited States InitiativesRenewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
EIA, U.S. DOE, 2007
Many states following California leadMany states following California lead••RPS standardsRPS standards••GHG reduction mandates for all sectorsGHG reduction mandates for all sectors
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 14/37
Fossil Fuel
iFuel Cell
Electrochemistry
iCombustion
Electricity
CombustionHeat
Hot GasesTurbine
Generator
• 80% of World’s Power• 94% of World’s CO2 Emissions• 90% of World’s Pollutant Emissions
Electricity
Fossil Fuel
What Alternatives Are Available?What Alternatives Are Available?
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 15/37
Loade–
Product GasesResidual Fuel
Fuel Air
Anode CathodeElectrolyte(Ion Conductor)
Product Gases Residual Oxidant
H2H2O
O2H+
Natural GasDigester GasBiomass GasSyn Gas
Fuel Cell Alternative Fuel Cell Alternative
e–e–
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 16/37
0
50,000feet
EARTH
4,000PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANT
0
50,000
EARTH
4,000
air exhaust
gasoline
2,000 lbs
~20 %
CO2
H2O
N2
H2
~60 %
600 lbs
FCCombustion
HC CONOxNOx
Transportation Fuel CellsTransportation Fuel Cells
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 17/37
Fuel CellsFuel Cells –– All major auto manufacturers pursuingAll major auto manufacturers pursuingFuel Cell VehiclesFuel Cell Vehicles
Mazda Premacy Nissan FCV
Ford P2000 H2
Honda FCX V3GM_Opel Hydrogen 1
Daimler FCell
Hyundai FCEV Toyota Fine
Honda FCX Clarity
GM Sequel
GM HyWire
GM Equinox
Toyota FCHV
Hyundai iBlue
UCI
UCI
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 18/37
0.20 1.00.4 0.6 0.8
Gasoline Vehicle
TodayToday Gasoline HV
Hydrogen HV
FCHV
Fuel Vehicle
FCHV(H2O→H2 by Renewable Energy)
FCHV (Coal→Hydrogen)
FCHV (Natural Gas Hydrogen)
FCHV (Biomass)
TargetTarget
Fuel
Vehicle
(Natural Gas Hydrogen)
Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels•• COCO22 Emission: Fuel & VehicleEmission: Fuel & Vehicle
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 19/37
•• U.S. Department of Energy Initiative for Advanced Power U.S. Department of Energy Initiative for Advanced Power PlantsPlants• 100-1000 MW
• Natural Gas
• Coal
• High-Efficiency Electrical Generation– Natural Gas: 75%– Coal: 60%
• Zero Emission of Criteria Pollutants• CO2 Capture for Sequestration• Co-Production of Hydrogen & Other Fuels
Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 20/37
GASIFICATION(ATR)
H2SEPARATINGMEMBRANE
SOFC
GENERATOR
FLUID BEDCHAR BOILER &
STACK GASCLEANUP
STACKGAS
HP STEAMAIR
CO2 TOPIPELINE
ASH
RAWSYNGAS
HPSTEAM
GENERATOR
GAS TURBINE
STEAMTURBINE
TOCONDENSER
AIR
COAL &LIMESTONE
HUMIDIFIED /PREHEATED
O2
CHAR
HPSTEAM
STACKGAS
HRSGS
CATALYTICOXIDATION, GASCOOLING & Hg
REMOVAL
CO2COMPRESSION/DEHYDRATION/
PUMPING
HOTDEPLETED
AIR
TURBINEEXHAUST
ITM
O2 FORGASIFIER &CATALYTICOXIDATION
UNITDEPLETEDFUEL GAS
SHIFT & H2SEPARATINGMEMBRANE
H2
O2 FROM ITM
HEATRECOVERY &
HT GASCLEANUP
COOLING / HEATRECOVERY &H2COMPRESSION
H2 TOPIPELINE
SWEEP GAS
SWEEPGAS
H22500 ST/DCoal
ElectricityGT
65%
ElectricityST
SOFC
Electricity
71 MW
Hydrogen100 MMSCF/D
CO2
100 MW
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 21/37
0.20 1.00.4 0.6 0.8
Gasoline Vehicle
TodayToday Gasoline HV
Hydrogen HV
FCHV
Fuel Vehicle
FCHV(H2O→H2 by Renewable Energy)
FCHV (Coal→Hydrogen)
FCHV (Natural Gas Hydrogen)
FCHV (Biomass)
TargetTarget
Fuel
Vehicle
(Natural Gas Hydrogen)
Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels•• COCO22 Emission: Fuel & VehicleEmission: Fuel & Vehicle
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 22/37
•• Energy Station ConceptEnergy Station Concept
DIGESTER GAS
LAND-FILL GAS
Energy Station
• Electric Power Generation
• Thermal Power Generation
• Hydrogen Generation
NATURAL GAS
“Renewable Energy Station”
•Green Electricity
•Green Thermal Power
•Renewable Hydrogen
Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels
PV
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 23/37
Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels•• Renewable Residential Fuel Cell SystemRenewable Residential Fuel Cell System
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 24/37
Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels•• Renewable Residential Fuel Cell System Renewable Residential Fuel Cell System –– 4.2 kW RFC 4.2 kW RFC
Supply & Demand Power Flow:Supply & Demand Power Flow:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
T im e (O n e W eek)
Pow
er (k
W)
P V P ow er 7 .9 kW E Z P ow er (In ) 4 .2 kW F C P ow er (O u t) G rid P ow er
System Cost $ 42,000.00 H2 Produced 50.9 kWhkW Peak RFC 8.1 kWRFC Round Trip Eff. 57%System Eff. 71%
1.53 kg renewable H2for transport (~ 18 mile weekday commute)
Fuel Cycle Analytical ToolFuel Cycle Analytical Tool
Generation Distribution UtilizationI t
•• Simplified scheme, adaptable to include other technologiesSimplified scheme, adaptable to include other technologies
Input
Adjust dj
Input Input Input
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 25/37
AdjustContribution
AdjustContribution
AdjustContribution
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 26/37
Fuel Cycle Analytical ToolFuel Cycle Analytical Tool•• GHG emissions with the adoption of hydrogen GHG emissions with the adoption of hydrogen
infrastructure for passenger vehicles in Southern Californiainfrastructure for passenger vehicles in Southern California
12.5% adoption of hydrogen vehicles
75% adoption of hydrogen vehicles
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 27/37
Fuel Cycle Analytical ToolFuel Cycle Analytical Tool
Interstates & Freeways
H2 Fueling Stations
Central SMR Facilities
Petroleum Coke
Coal
Renewable (Solar, Wind, Geo)& Nuclear
High Temperature Fuel Cells
H2 Pipelines
H2 Truck Deliver RoutesLos Angeles
NV
AZCA
UCI
5
405
73Newport
Beach
•• Spatial & Temporal AnalysesSpatial & Temporal Analyses
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 28/37
• GHG emissions• Criteria pollutant emissions• Energy consumption• Water consumption
Output
Spatial DistributionTemporal Distribution
Air Quality Simulation
Fuel Cycle Analytical ToolFuel Cycle Analytical Tool8-hr. Ozone
24-hr. Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
( ) ( )/
k k k kk km m m mm m
sources aerosol chemistrysinks
Q Q Q QuQ K Qt t t t
∂ ∂ ∂ ∂∂ ∂ ∂ ∂
⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞ ⎛ ⎞+∇ ⋅ = ∇ ⋅ ∇ + + +⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 29/37
∆ 24-hr PM2.5 for H2 vs. Conventional Scenario
Two coke-to-H2 plants
•• Accounting for spatial & temporal variations of emissions of Accounting for spatial & temporal variations of emissions of all hydrogen infrastructure (generation, distribution, endall hydrogen infrastructure (generation, distribution, end--use)use)
Fuel Cycle Analytical ToolFuel Cycle Analytical Tool
∆ peak 8-hr O3 for H2 vs. Conventional Scenario
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 30/37
Many Alternative Fuel OptionsMany Alternative Fuel Options• Hydrogen
– Renewable hydrogen– Sustainable hydrogen– Less sustainable hydrogen
• Electricity– Renewable electricity– Sustainable electricity (e.g., nuclear)– Less sustainable, less environmentally sensitive electricity– Evolving as the “dual” fuel
• Bio-fuels– Biodiesel– Ethanol, Methanol– Hydrogen
Source: Lisa Benson, Los Angeles Times, 16 April 2008
Transportation FuelsTransportation Fuels
No alternative fuel is the “silver bullet” BUT electricity use in transportation is clearly desirable
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 31/37
Convergence of TechnologiesConvergence of Technologies•• Energy / Consumer / Environmental analysesEnergy / Consumer / Environmental analyses
Technology Meets User Requirements
Fulfills Personal Mobility
Eliminates Criteria
Pollutants
Eliminates GHG
Emissions
Eliminates Fossil Fuel
Use
Provides Energy Security
Traditional gasoline car Yes Yes No No No No
Hybrid Yes Yes No, but better
No, but better
No, but better
No, but better
HydrogenYes (but
technology hurdles)
YesYes, if
renewable, nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Bio-Fuel Yes Yes No NoNo, not enough
feedstockYes
Electric No (range & recharge limits) Yes
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclearYes
Mass Transit (bus) Yes No No, but
betterNo, but better
No, but better
No, but better
Mass Transit (electric rail) Yes No
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclearYes
PRT Yes (shipping, no)
Yes (if stops convenient)
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclear
Yes, if renewable,
nuclearYes
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 32/37
Convergence of TechnologiesConvergence of Technologies•• Energy / ConsumerEnergy / Consumer
Environmental analysesEnvironmental analysesidentify identify electrificationelectrification as as desirable for transportdesirable for transport
•• Assess all major primaryAssess all major primaryenergy sourcesenergy sources
•• Apply to moving vehicleApply to moving vehicle•• Analyze criteria pollutantAnalyze criteria pollutant
and GHG impacts of and GHG impacts of primary energy conversion, primary energy conversion, transmission, distribution, transmission, distribution, and endand end--useuse
Nuclear Reactor Sun
Boiler Solar Collector Evaporation Buoyancy Photosynthesis PV
Time
Mining/Transport
Combustion
High Temp FCPressurize
Wind TurbineH2O Turbine
Steam Turbine
Boiler Gas Turbine
Generator
Distillation
F‐T
Reformer
Refine
Grid
Pressurize
H2 Distribution
Electrolysis
Fuel Distribution
Storage
Storage
Storage
Storage
Spark Ignited/Diesel Combustion
H2 Storage
Fuel Cell
E‐Road Battery Storage
Electric Motor
Moving Vehicle
Heat
Steam Flowing River
Wind
Heat Radiation
Organic Material
Electricity
Electricity
H2
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Rotating Shaft
Rotating Shaft
CNG
Bio-Fuel
H2
H2
H2 CNG
Bio-
F l
Organic Material
Fossil Fuel
Gas/
Di l
Rotating
Sh ft
Rotating
Sh ft
Electricity
Steam Rotating
Sh ft
NG Oil Coal
Hot Gases
Energy Conversion Process
Process that produces CO2
Process that produces criteria pollutants and CO2
Labels on lines indicate the form of energy at that point in the process
Rotating
Sh ft
Liquid
F l
Gas/
Di l
Liquid
F l
Steam
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 33/37
Convergence of TechnologiesConvergence of Technologies•• Energy / Consumer / Environmental analyses Energy / Consumer / Environmental analyses –– identify identify
electrificationelectrification as desirable for transportas desirable for transport
Vehicle (study)Fuel
Energy (MJ/MJ)
Fuel Carbon(g C/MJ)
EPA City (MJ/km)
EPA Highway (MJ/km)
Grams C/km
(gC/km)
Total Energy (MJ/km)
Total C (gC/km)
BEV (UCI) 1.25 51.5 0.582 0.443 0 1.17 26.8BEV (ADVISOR) 1.25 51.5 0.471 0.374 0 0.96 22.0BEV (MIT) 1.16 54 0.579 0.422 0 1.10 27.5BEV (GM) 1.45/1.13 49/36Current gas (MIT)* 0.211 4.9 3.195 2.152 53.3 3.30 66.7Current gas (GM)§ 0.23 5.5 3.79 † 3.79 † 70.1 4.66 90.9Diesel Hybrid (MIT) 0.139 3.3 1.029 0.788 19.2 1.05 22.2Diesel Hybrid (GM) 0.19 4.4 2.65 † 2.65 † 52.9 3.15 64.6H2 Fuel Cell (MIT) 0.77 36 0.905 0.684 0 1.43 29.0H2 Fuel Cell (GM) 0.81 31.1 1.67 † 1.67 † 0 3.02 51.9TRV (UCI) 1.25 51.5 0.446 0.362 0 0.92 21.0TRV (ADVISOR) 1.25 51.5 0.403 0.336 0 0.84 19.2
* 1996 Toyota Camry§ GM full-size pick-up truck† The GM study did not differentiate between city and highway driving
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 34/37
Convergence of TechnologiesConvergence of Technologies•• Energy / Consumer Energy / Consumer
Environmental Environmental analyses analyses –– identify identify electrificationelectrification as as desirable for desirable for transporttransport
•• Third Rail VehicleThird Rail Vehicle(TRV) idea(TRV) idea
•• All auto features of All auto features of personal interestpersonal interest
•• Charge on majorCharge on majorelectrified roadselectrified roads‘‘ee--roadroad’’
•• BEV of BEV of ‘‘ee--roadroad’’
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 35/37
FUEL CELL HYBRID VEHICLE
POWER CONTROL UNIT
SECONDARYBATTERY
MOTOR
FUEL CELL HYDROGEN
ExhaustAir
H2O
N2
H2
600 lbs
FC
60 %
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 36/37
Central Power
Central/Distributed Power
Combustion Combustion/Solar/Wind/Electrochemical/Nuclear/NGElectric Power Evolution
Transportation Evolution
ICE Hybrid PHEV
HFCV PHFCV
Combustion
Electrochemistry
Gasoline Gasoline/Bio Fuels/Electricity Hydrogen/Electricity
Owned VehicleOwned Vehicle/Shared Vehicle/Public Transport
Nexus: Transportation/Electricity
Convergence of TechnologiesConvergence of Technologies
© National Fuel Cell Research Center, 2008 37/37