campaign may 2009

Campaign May 2009

My SATURNA chief scientist’s guide to SATURN modeling and observation assets

New Horizon* Pt. Sur*

AUVs*

Analyses

Forecasts Scalar stations

About My SATURN …

Glider*

Radars*

-prof.*

Drifters

Pigeon drop People

Version 1.1 -- May 12, 2009

“CMOP: Transforming Ocean Exploration”

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About navigation …

My SATURN

Click on box with feature of interest, to access a first-level slide (note: many boxes still in preparation). From there, you can navigate to 2nd and then 3rd level slides

Returns you to a second-level slide

Many images are clickable. Pass mouse over images to check if that is the case

Returns you to a first-level slide (if you are not at one already)Returns you to outline

slide

Returns you to slide you were previously at

Third

leve

l slid

e

Out

line

slid

e


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New Horizon

• May 13– Standard products showing surface velocities and salinities can be

found at the fdb21 (best estuary model right now) RDFS site– Also useful may be the model browser. In particular, using the i button

will produce salinity, temperature and speed plots at a given point• Zoom into the estuary• In the model forecast option select “db21 forecast”• Turn off all data (scalar and vector – on the left side)• Turn on db16 bathymetry in the overlay selector (under the Legend) to see the channel• Click the i button, then select a location in the channel• View salt, temp, vel depth data at that point in the Model Profile Data Interface

– A pigeon drop directory containing some of these products is also available.

– Be aware of the forecast schedule: each day a 3 day model run is completed. The 3 days are yesterday, today and tomorrow. For example: to see the plume on May 13 use the last day of the May 12 forecast until the May 13 forecast completes.

– I’m assuming you’ll have internet access inside the estuary. If its intermittent and you’d like me to prepare some products for the next time you’re in range let me know and I’ll put it in the pigeon drop directory. -Nate

Always remember that custom products can be created upon request


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Pt. Sur

• May 13-19– Plume location can be found using the cruise mapper. If you have

consistent internet access this is a good choice. Use the “dev” forecast. Charles or Alex will be able to guide you.

– A simpler alternative/supplement is to use the plume animations from RDFS uploaded to the pigeon drop location.

– We will expect to receive dye release locations from Pt Sur. We will then run drifter tracks and dye tracer runs and place them in the pigeon drop directory.

– Be aware of the forecast schedule: each day a 3 day model run is completed. The 3 days are yesterday, today and tomorrow. For example: to see the plume on May 13 use the last day of the May 12 forecast until the May 13 forecast completes.

Always remember that custom products can be created upon request


5

Particle Tracking Tools

Pathway Prediction

• Images are created using a single Matlab function, invoked on the fcast00 server (requires that access be setup)

• We currently have three modes of particle tracking available• Pathway prediction• Release points evaluation• Release transect evaluation

Release Point Evaluation

• Pathway prediction option produces a figure and a text file detailing predicted position/time of the drifter

• Release position evaluation shows the predicted pathways for several release positions and times

• Release transect evaluation shows the predicted pathways for several release positions along a defined transect (formatted as in Path. Pred.)


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Pathway Prediction


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Custom features can be created,

upon request


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Pioneer array: Glider

• Plan• Climatology for plan

• Data • Model/data comparison

Depth rating: 200mHorizontal range: 600-1500 KmEndurance: ~21 daysSensor package:• Seabird CTD• Aandera Optode• WetLabs BB2FLSL0: CDOM, Chlorophyll Fluorometer, Scattering meter

Grays Harbor line


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Circulation forecasts

For the estuary:

For the plume and shelf

RDFS: http://rdfs.stccmop.org


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Forecast schedule

Day 0“yesterday”

Day 1“today”

Day 2“tomorrow”

starts ends

Forecast … … starts … ends Product production

dev (1 nowcast, 2 forecast days)

Day 0 at 11:30AM

Day 1 at 4:00AM From start to Day 2 0:00AM

fdb21 (1 hindcast, 1 nowcast, 1 forecast day)

Day 1 at 8:25AM

Day 1 at 5:00PM From Day 1 5:00PM to Day 2 0:00AM

fdb16 (1 hindcast, 1 nowcast, 1 forecast day)

Day 1 at 8:25AM

Day 1 at 8:00PM From start to Day 2 0:00AM

ref (1 nowcast, 1 forecast day)

Day 0 at 11:40AM

Day 0 at 10:00PM From start to Day 1 0:00AM


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Tools for data explorationBa

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& g

atew

ay

RDFS

: rap

id d

eplo

ymen

t Special RDFS password needed. Contact

Paul Turner ([email protected])

Get

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Mod

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adva

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)


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Model Browser Interface

Choose forecast

Choose data type (can have 1 of each type)

Step through time

Select overlays, including lat/lon grid

zoom in

zoom out

Select point to open profile data interfacedrag Distance tool

transect tool (tricky to use)

Enter location to see it on the map


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Model profile data interface

http://ambwd02.stccmop.org/corie/cruise_support/displaystation

Choose forecast or hindcast

Enter lat-lonChoose date and time (PST)

Returns data table

And plots

Currently returns salinity and temperature, velocity profiles may be added in the near future


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Skill assessment

Ugly details

Quick scan…


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Quick-scan of forecast skill

Salinity data rmse crsfc IOAJetta

SATURN-03

Am169 b

SATURN-01

Mott B.

Grays Pt

Elliot Pt

OGI02

Data: for the duration of the forecast, plot observed values of salinity versus predicted ones. Do this for fdb21, dev and fdb16 (3 curves defined by small dots, different colors)

RMSE: Foreground: For day 1 of the forecasts - RMSE of fdb16 (day) vs fdb21; ditto, dev vs fdb21 (two dots, two colors)Background: ditto, for the previous 14 days of forecast (two curves, each with 14 dots; same colors, smaller dots)

CRSTC and IOA: as RMSE

In preparation


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• Use this URL to discuss RDFS skill assessment concerns with Paul

• http://rdfs.stccmop.org/forecast/sa/displaytimehistory/?hires=on&dev=on&db16=on&fdb21=on&mdplot=on&context=on&plot=Plot&fcast0=fdb21&sa=rmse&id=am169_CT3773_01430_salinity&daynum=1&ndays=90


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db16

Analyses

Sep Jan-Dec May

Varia

bilit

y - e

stua

ry

Varia

bilit

y - p

lum

e

Clim

atol

ogy

TS

Clim

atol

ogy

map

s

Sim

DB

inve

ntor

y


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Bottom salinity – climatology and anomalies

2001

Climatology

1999

2001

2006

Anomaly

September

2006

1999


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1999

2001

Climatology

2006

1999

2001

2006

Anomaly

January-December


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1999

2001

Climatology

1999

2001

2006

Anomaly

May

2006


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Winter and summer plume climatology

DB14: 1999-2006

Winter Summer


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Monthly and inter-annual variability

anomalies


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Daily variability – May 1999

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

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23

psu

8 9 10

11

12

13trU

14

15

16

17

18Dev

19

20

21

22trU

24

25

26

27

28

29

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1999 daily averaged surface S – db14

May climatology(1999-2006)


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Wind forcing – May 1999

Downwelling-favorable

Upwelling-favorable

Transition to prevailing upwelling–

favorable regime

Downwelling episode

Hourly wind off the river mouth

5 ms-1

Persistent strong

upwelling-favorable

winds


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SATURN endurance stations SATURN Modeling system

PaulCharlesAlex

SA interface Station browser

Model browser RDFS

Model API ?

? ?

Profiler interface Station browser

QC of phys. Var. Dashboard

Glider interface AUV interface

? ?

BillDavid

Climatology TSClimatology

mapsClimatology Correlations


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New Horizon: instructions to followPoint Sur: instructions to followLand mirror: http://www.stccmop.org//CORIE/cruises/cmop/pigeon/mirror

The directory structure is …/mirror/[date]/. Under each date will be forecast directories for the db16 (estuary), dev (plume+), fdb21 (estuary, some plume), and fca200mv (experimental) forecasts. Images from standard products can be found in these directories. Each date may also include a “modeling” directory, which will contain anything the modeling team comes up with in addition to standard products, including drifter and tracer images.

Pigeon drop

Animations Hourly snapshots


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People

• On vessels

• On land

Name Modeling Cyber Vessel Leg Contact

Joseph Zhang Pt. Sur 2nd [email protected]

Grant Law Pt. Sur 1st [email protected]

Alex Jaramillo New Horizon Both [email protected]

Charles Seaton Pt. Sur Both [email protected]

Name Modeling Cyber Leg Contact

Paul Turner Both [email protected]

Nate Hyde Both [email protected]

Nirzwan Bandolin Both [email protected]

Grant Law 2nd [email protected]

Joseph Zhang 1st [email protected]

campaign may 2009

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