canada’s demographic destiny implications for our rapidly changing labour market

Canada’s Demographic DestinyCanada’s Demographic DestinyImplications for our rapidly changing Labour Market

Presented by Michael Adams

CANNEXUS:Canada’s National Career Development Conference

OttawaJanuary 25th, 2012

What defines us as Canadians and how is this changing?

DemographicsDemographics

Public opinionPublic opinion

Social valuesSocial values

Population trendsPopulation trends

Population is aging, and growth is highest among older Canadians

Source: Environics Analytics

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-69

70-7475-79

80-8485+

Age Groups

Population Growth, 2010-2020, Canada

Boomers

Our native population is barely growing, and without immigration, would begin to decline in 15 years

Source: Statistics Canada

Actual Projected

Zero immigration from 2010

- 1.0%

- 0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

Observed and Projected Population Growth, Canada

Immigration levels will mean population will continue to grow, but at a modest pace


Actual Projected

Zero immigration from 2010

Medium ProjectionImmigration 7.5 per 1000 population

- 1.0%

- 0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

Observed and Projected Population Growth, Canada

One in five Canadians are foreign-born; highest proportion since 1931

Australia 22.2%U.S. 12.5%

Number and Proportion of Foreign-born in Canada, by Census Year

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20060%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%Number

%


Source of immigrants to Canada has changed dramatically since the 1960s, but is now relatively stable

311

3140

50 49

3

7

9 10

3

6

6

7 11

8

17

17

1111

4

7

8

4

34

90

69

3625

19 16

Before 1961 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2006

Period of Immigration

Percent of Landed Immigrants by Region of Birth, Canada, 2006

Europe

United States and Oceania

Caribbean, South and Central America

Africa

Middle East and West Central Asia*

Asia (except West Central Asia)

* Includes Afghanistan, Turkey, and Central Asian Republics of former USSRSource: Statistics Canada

Immigrants come from many parts of the worldCanada, 2006

15 countries 100,000 or more



Total Number of Immigrants

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Lebanon

France

Romania

Guyana

Iran

South Korea

Sri Lanka

Netherlands

J amaica

Pakistan

Portugal

Vietnam

Poland

Germany

Hong Kong

United States

Italy

Philippines

India

China

United Kingdom

in Thousands

Philippines now number one source country, followed closely by China and India

China

India

Philippines

United Kingdom

United States

Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Facts and Figures, 2010

Number 2001 2010 2010

Total Canada 100.0% 100.0% 280,681Toronto CMA 49.9% 32.8% 92,185Montréal CMA 13.1% 16.6% 46,461Vancouver CMA 13.7% 13.3% 37,335Calgary CMA 4.1% 5.7% 16,103Winnipeg CMA 1.5% 4.4% 12,342Edmonton CMA 1.8% 3.9% 11,005Ottawa-Gatineau CMA 3.6% 3.1% 8,708Other 12.3% 20.1% 56,521

Immigration (Permanent Residents) to CanadaPercent

Year

Immigrants now spreading across Canada


Many temporary residents stay in Canada a number of years

347

Total Temporary Residents (‘000s)

396 450 467 471 484 523 591 645 661

The 2006 Census showed 25% of non permanent residents were in Canada five years earlier


428

Foreign workers

Foreign students

Humanitarian population

Other

Percent of Population by Mother Tongue

0%

20%

40%

6060%

80%

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 1996 2001 2006

20% of Canadian population has a non-English or non-French mother tongue


English

French

Other

Nearly one million Canadians have Chinese as their Mother Tongue

Population by Mother Tongue (other than English or French) 2006

And the visible minority population in Canada will more than double by 2031

Total 32,522(000s)

Total 42,078(000s)Visible

Minority Population

5,28516%Non Visible

Minority Population

27,23784%

2006

Visible Minority

Population12,855

31%

Non Visible Minority

Population29,222

69%

20312006 2031

2031 % Visible MinorityToronto 63%Vancouver 59%

Growth 2006-2031Visible Minority Population 143%Non Visible Minority Population 7%

Total Population 29%


Definition: Visible minority The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour". The visible minority population consists mainly of the following groups: Chinese, South Asian, Black, Arab, West Asian, Filipino, Southeast Asian, Latin American, Japanese and Korean.

Majority disagree that there is too much immigration, despite growing concerns about the economy

Agree or disagree: “There is too much immigration in Canada.”

Environics Focus Canada 2011

77 80 83 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10

AgreeDisagree

61

35

58

38

11

Strong majority rejects the idea that immigrants “take away” jobs from other Canadians

Agree or disagree: “Immigrants take away jobs from other Canadians.”


85 89 93 94 97 98 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11

Disagree Agree dk/na

54

36

74

24

10

1

But two-thirds believe too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values; also up from mid-decade

Agree or disagree: “Too many immigrants are not adopting Canadian values.”


93 94 97 99 00 02 03 05 06 08 10 11

Agree Disagree dk/na

72

23

66

31

6 2

What values are most important for immigrants to adopt?

Unprompted responses October 2011

Don't know

Other

Democracy/freedom

Work ethic

Gender equality

Respect for other religions

Need to assimilate

Respect for the law

Tolerance for others

English and/or French fluency

Respect for Canada'shistory and culture 28

26

19

17

9

9

7

5

5

6

15

Source: 2011 Trudeau Foundation Conference

What values are most important for immigrants to adopt?Immigrants agree with the native-born

Source: 2011 Trudeau Foundation Conference

2927

2825

2118

2116

510

89

Respect for Canada’shistory and culture

English and/or French fluency

Tolerance for others

Respect for the law

Respect for other religions

Need to assimilateImmigrants

Native-born

Good idea Bad idea

36

45

5547

2006 2010

Canada

Good idea Bad idea

53

64

3731

Quebec

Good idea Bad idea

3139

61

52

Rest of Canada

but especially in QuebecAn increasing proportion of Canadians think it’s a good idea to ban Muslim head scarves in public,


Aboriginal peoplesAboriginal peoples

Canada’s Aboriginal population is significant and growing – now back to pre-European contact numbers

Aboriginal Ancestry Population

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006


Of these, 1.2 million report Aboriginal identity, in three distinct groups

Total = 1,172,785

34,500

50,480

389,780

698,025

Métis single response

Inuit single response

North American Indian single response

Multiple and other Aboriginal responses

Aboriginal Identity Population

One in two of the Aboriginal population live in urban areas…

Rural46% Urban

54%


Aboriginal population and proportion of CMAs, with population increase, 2001-2006

Aboriginalpopulation(2006) (n)

Proportionof CMA(2006)

Change2001 - 2006

Halifax 5,320 1.4% +51%

Montreal 17,865 0.5% +60%

Toronto 26,575 0.5% +31%

Thunder Bay 10,055 8.3% +23%

Winnipeg 68,385 10.0% +22%

Regina 17,105 8.9% +9%

Saskatoon 21,535 9.3% +6%

Calgary 26,575 2.5% +26%

Edmonton 52,100 5.1% +27%

Vancouver 40,310 1.9% +9%

Winnipeg

Thunder Bay

Calgary

Edmonton

Toronto

Halifax

Montreal+60%

+51%

+31%

+27%

+26%

+23%

+22%

Aboriginal Population Change 2001 - 2006

+5%

+4%

+9%

+10%

+13%

+1%

+3%

Overall Population Change 2001 - 2006

…and these numbers are increasing, much faster than the rest of the population


32%

26%

12%

19%

11%10%

22%

10%

23%

34%

Less than high school High School Certificate or Equivalent

Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma

College, CEGEP or other non university certificate

or diploma

University certificate, diploma or degree

Highest Level of Education Population Aged 25-34

Total Aboriginal identity population

Non-Aboriginal identity population

There continues to be a large gap in education levels between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

First Nations, Métis and Inuit desire to be successful in mainstream ways.

What are the things you most want to achieve in your lifetime? (top mentions)

Happiness/live good life

Good health/longevity

Travel/vacation

See children/grandchildren succeed

Financial independence/security

Home ownership

Career/job satisfaction

Start/raise/provide for family

Complete education/degree 28

24

22

19

12

12

11

11

11

… and share universal definitions of a successful life.

Are the following very, somewhat or not so important to your idea of a successful life?

Living in a traditional way

Owning a home

Having strong connection toAboriginal identity/background

Financial independence

Having a good job/successful career

Living a balanced life

Being close to family/friends

Raising healthy, well-adjustedchildren who contribute to community

90 5 2

88 10 1

88 10 1

78 18 3

71 23 4

63 28 9

61 26 12

36 38 22

Very important Somewhat important Not so important

Most feel their current city of residence is home…

Where is home for you?

Other

Home community

City is home 71

16

12

Firstgeneration

66%

Secondgeneration

87%

1990 1997 2005 2010

55

29

44

33

52

26

52

30

Canadian attitudes/government policies

Aboriginal people themselves

Canadians are more likely than not to believe Aboriginal peoples are victims rather than causes of their problems


Our analysis reveals four distinct segments of opinions about Aboriginal peoples

Cultural Romantics(45%)

Idealistic and optimistic, they have a strong belief in Aboriginal peoples’ artistic and cultural contributions.

Dismissive Naysayers (24%)

Tend to view Aboriginal peoples and communities negatively, i.e., entitled and isolated from Canadian

society.

Connected Advocates(17%)

High level of contact and strong belief that Aboriginal peoples often experience discrimination.

Inattentive Sceptics(14%)

Uninformed and unaware, they typically think Aboriginal peoples are no different from other

Canadians.

Source: Environics Institute

Visible Minority / Aboriginal Composition of 11 Largest CensusMetropolitan Areas, Canada 2011

CMA’sPopulation

2011 MinorityVisible

Minority AboriginalToronto 5,782,740 46.4% 45.9% 0.5%

Vancouver 2,386,005 46.0% 44.2% 1.9%

Winnipeg 745,523 26.7% 16.2% 10.5%Calgary 1,270,565 26.6% 24.3% 2.3%Edmonton 1,176,820 23.5% 18.5% 5.0%Windsor 324,217 20.1% 17.9% 2.1%Ottawa – Gatineau 1,245,451 19.1% 17.3% 1.8%Montreal 3,822,665 18.2% 17.7% 0.5%Regina 213,659 16.6% 7.3% 9.3%Kitchener 496,189 16.5% 15.4% 1.0%Saskatoon 263,311 16.3% 7.1% 9.3%

Source: Environics Analytics

A Presentation by Michael Adams

President, Environics Group of Companies

STAYIN’ ALIVE: How Canadian Baby Boomers Will Work, Play, and Find

Meaning in the Second Half of Their Adult Lives

Canadian Generations Today

• 5 million ELDERS (age 64+)

• 9 million BOOMERS (45 to 63)

• 7.5 million GEN X (29 to 44)

• 6 million GEN Y (16 to 28)

BIRTHS IN CANADA, 1921-2006


1946-1965 = BOOM!

9.1 Million Canadians aged 45-63

27% of Canadian Population

WHY BOOMERS MATTER

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0-45-9

10-1415-19

20-2425-29

30-3435-39

40-4445-49

50-5455-59

60-6465-69

70-7475-79

80-8485+

Age Groups

Population Growth, 2010-2020, Canada

Boomers

EVOLVING VALUES

ELDERS BOOMERS POST-BOOMERSDEFERRED IMMEDIATE INSTANT

CONFORMITY AND EXCLUSION

OU

TE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED

THE SOCIAL VALUES MAPIN

NE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED

IDEAS AND INDIVIDUALISM

OSTENTATIOUS CONSUMPTION

CONFIDENCE IN BIG BUSINESS

ATTRACTION TO VIOLENCE AIMLESSNESS

CONCERN FOR APPEARANCE

PURSUIT OF NOVELTY

NEED FOR STATUS RECOGNITION

SOCIAL DARWINISM

ADAPTIVE NAVIGATION

IMPORTANCE OF BRAND

PURSUIT OF INTENSITY AND EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCES

PURSUIT OF ORIGINALITY

EMOTIONAL CONNECTIVITY

ENTHUSIASM FOR TECHNOLOGY

INTROSPECTION AND EMPATHY

SOCIAL LEARNING

CULTURAL FUSION

HETERARCHY

SPIRITUAL QUEST

CYNICISM

TECHNOLOGICAL ANXIETY

APOCALYPTIC ANXIETY

AVERSION TO COMPLEXITY IN LIFE

IMPORTANCE OF PRICE

UTILITARIAN CONSUMERISM

DECONSUMPTION

NEED FOR ESCAPE

EVERYDAY ETHICS

EQUAL RELATIONSHIP WITH YOUTH

FULFILLMENT THROUGH WORK

REJECTION OF AUTHORITY

CONTROL OF DESTINYNEW SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

IMPORTANCE OF SPONTANEITY


OU

TE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED

The Mental Postures of the QuadrantsIN

NE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED

IDEALS AND INDIVIDUALISM

DAVID SUZUKI

BARACK OBAMA

DON CHERRY

MARTHA STEWART

Social Success, Materialism and Pride

Experience and Personal Development

Security, Stability and Exclusion

Autonomy and Well-being

• Conformist and materialistic values

• Social success, displaying status

• Seek clearly defined structures

• Feel excluded and lack purpose

• Seek security, stability, leadership

• Accept civil disobedience, violence

• Personal fulfillment through experiment

• Physical and moral well-being important

• Care about being open to others, enriching experiences

• Personal independence and control

• Adhere to ideals regarding social issues

• Reject authority, conformity, materialism


EARLY BOOMERS HAVE BEEN AT THE VANGUARD OF CHANGING CANADIAN SOCIAL VALUES AT EVERY STAGE OF THEIR LIVES

BABY BOOMERS ARE…

SELF-CENTRED, SPENDTHRIFTS, NOSTALGIC, TREE-HUGGERS, INDULGENT PARENTS, LEFT-LEANING AGING HIPPIES, SELL-OUTS, IN DENIAL ABOUT DEATH.

REALLY?

BABY BOOMERS ARE DIVERSE

FORGOT THE STEREOTYPES


OU

TE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED

THE TRIBESIN

NE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED


ANXIOUS COMMUNITARIANS

Social Success, Materialism and Pride

Experience and Personal Development

Security, Stability and Exclusion

Autonomy and Well-being

CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS AUTONOMOUS

REBELS

DISENGAGEDDARWINISTS

BABY BOOMERS

CANADIAN BABY BOOMERS

CONNECTEDENTHUSIASTS


STRONGEST VALUES

Concern for Appearance

Need for Status Recognition

Fear of Violence

Flexible Personality

WEAKEST VALUES

Hyper-Rationality

Sexual Permissiveness

Rejection of Authority

Flexibility of Gender Identity

The Anxious Communitarian Bucket List (In Their Own Words)

The Rockies, California, the Grand Canyon

“See my son happy with his own son”

“Visit all my relatives at least once more”

“See the Leafs win the Stanley Cup”

“Sleep with George Clooney”

DISENGAGED DARWINISTS

STRONGEST VALUES

Fatalism

Hyper-Rationality

Risk-Aversion

Ethnic Intolerance

WEAKEST VALUES

Introspection and Empathy

Cultural Fusion


Pursuit of Novelty

The Disengaged Darwinist Bucket List (In Their Own Words)

“Keep being a good dad”

“Restore an antique car”

“Build my kids a house/cottage”

“Reconcile with my ex”

“Finally be able to enjoy life at a slower pace”

AUTONOMOUS REBELS

STRONGEST VALUES


Equality of the Sexes

Equal Relationship w/youth

Pursuit of Happiness to Detriment of Duty

WEAKEST VALUES

Fear of Violence

Joy of Consumption

Need for Status Recognition

Importance of National Superiority

The Autonomous Rebel Bucket List (In Their Own Words)

Machu Picchu, Amazon, Safari, China, Brazil

“Write a novel”

“Be involved with a political think tank”

“Drop acid (safely)”

“Finish my film on Ukrainian socialists in Canada”

“Conquer the Grouse Grind in 60 minutes or less”

CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS

STRONGEST VALUES

Personal Creativity

Cultural Fusion

Social Learning

Ethnic Consumerism

WEAKEST VALUES

Ethnic Intolerance

Acceptance of Violence

Anomie and Aimlessness

Fatalism

The Connected Enthusiast Bucket List(In Their Own Words)

“Learn [insert language]”

“End poverty in Canada”

“Help a young person succeed”

“Visit the two children I sponsor”

“Faire le clown!”

WORK AND “RETIREMENT”

Elders

Work until 65

Liking your work is a bonus – not a requirement

26% prefer/intend to do some paid work during retirement or start a business

Boomers

Work until I’m not useful

Fulfillment through work

49% prefer/intend to do some paid work during retirement or start a business




OU

TE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED

MARTHA STEWART


Least likely to plan to do paid work in retirement

Those who do plan to work hope for seasonal gigs so they can escape south in the winter


INN

ER

-DIR

EC

TE

DDON CHERRY


DISENGAGED DARWINISTS

“Retirement is a time to relax after a lifetime of hard work.”

Below average on plans for most retirement activities: travel, spiritual pursuits, hobbies, reading, etc.


INN

ER

-DIR

EC

TE

D

DAVID SUZUKI


AUTONOMOUS REBELS

Open to meaningful activity in retirement – especially to remain mentally sharp

Hope to remain engaged (but with more flexibility) by keeping up part-time work


OU

TE

R-D

IRE

CT

ED

BARACK OBAMA


CONNECTED ENTHUSIASTS

“Retirement is a time to take on new pursuits and activities now that work obligations are lighter.”

Want to do everything in retirement: travel, volunteer, spend time with friends and family – and work!

Social issues Social issues and social valuesand social values

An increasing majority support Canada’s laws that allow same-sex marriage

2010

2006

2004

2003

2002

2001 29 26 11 304

29 27 12 293

32 24 10 323

33 25 9 293

33 23 10 304

43 25 9 204

Strongly support

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

Neither support nor oppose*/dk/na

63


And three-quarters now believe every woman who wants to have an abortion should be able to have one

2010

2000

1997

1993

1991

1990

Oct. 1989

Mar. 1989

1988

1985 53 41 5

47 37 16

54 40 6

58 38 4

55 38 7

56 37 7

56 37 7

61 35 5

66 26 2

75 22 2

Agree

Disagree

dk/na

64


24

09

21

04

40

84

Father of family must be master in his own houseCanada: Agree 1983 - 2011

42

83

37

85

37

86

35

87

34

88

32

89

29

90

25

91

26

92

23

93

24

94

21

95

20

96

19

97

17

98

19

99

18

00

20

01

19

02

20

03

24

06

23

07

18

05

20

08

Foreign born: 26%Men: 27%Women: 13%

20

11

As the times change, so do our values….

Source: Environics Social Values Monitor, 2011

Top Rising Trends

• Rejection of Authority (149)• Community Involvement (149)• New Social Responsibility (148)• Legacy (144)• Social Learning (141)• Discriminating Consumerism (141)• Vitality (140)• Introspection & Empathy (140)• Effort for Health (137)• Government Involvement (135)

Social Evolution 2009-2011

Top Declining Trends

• Joy of Consumption (74)• Confidence in Advertising (74)• Anomie & Aimlessness (75)• Confidence in Big Business (76)• Pursuit of Intensity and Emotional Experiences (76)• Acceptance of Violence (79)• Pursuit of Happiness to Detriment of Duty (81)• Fear of Violence (81)• Importance of Physical Beauty (81)• Ethnic Intolerance (83)

Social Evolution 2009-2011

Implications of our rapidly changing Labour Market

Leading edge employers must have an employee base that, at all levels, reflect…

Canadian Demographics• New Canadians

• Visible Minorities

• Aboriginal Peoples

• Young People, and

• Baby Boomers

And Canadian Values• Heterarchy

• New Social Responsibility

• Gender Equality

www.EnvironicsResearch.ca

Michael AdamsPresident

Environics Group of [email protected]

canada’s demographic destiny implications for our rapidly changing labour market

Documents

more82 countries

more150 countries

statistics canadaimmigrants

immigration levels

mother tongue18 languages

more55 languages

michael adamscannexus

older canadianssource