cansips - the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system
DESCRIPTION
CanSIPS - The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Meteorological Service of Canada. Juan Sebastian Fontecilla 1 & - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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- CanSIPS - The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual
Prediction System
Juan Sebastian Fontecilla1 &
Bill Merryfield2, Bertrand Denis1, Slava Kharin2, Woo-Sung Lee2, Jacques Hodgson1, Louis-Philippe Crevier1, Benoit
Archambault1, Lewis Poulin1, Ping-An Tan1 1 Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC)
2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)
Meteorological Service of Canada
CMOS 2012, Montreal
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OUTLINE
• Background
• Description of the new system
• Forecast skill improvements
• El Nino / La Nina predictions
• Future works
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day week month season year decade century
(Multi-)DecadalIPCC-type projections(scenario dependent)
Extended
Long-Range
now
Fo
reca
st R
ang
esS
ou
rces
of
Pre
dic
tab
ilit
y
Medium
Short
soil moisture initial conditions
Madden-Julian Oscillation
atmosphericinitial conditions
ENSO
PDV/AMV?
Forcing scenarios
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day week month season year decade century
(Multi-)DecadalIPCC-type projections(scenario dependent)
Extended
Long-Range
Fo
reca
st R
ang
esS
ou
rces
of
Pre
dic
tab
ilit
y*
Medium
Short
soil moisture initial conditions
Madden-Julian Oscillation
atmosphericinitial conditions
ENSO
PDV/AMV?
Forcing scenarios
now
this talk
*Not complete
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Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
El Niño / La Nina
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Motivation for coupled vs
2-tier systemMar 2006
Apr 2006
May 2006
Jun 2006
Jul 2006
Oct 2006
Observed SST anomaly
…
“Forecast” (persisted) SST anomaly
Example: consider 2-tier forecast (persisted SSTA) from 1 April 2006
2-tier system with persisted SSTA cannot predict an El Niño or La Niña
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Coupled Historical Forecasting Project II (CHFP2)
• 1-tier system -> two atmos-ocean-ice coupled systems
- CanCM3 = AGCM3 (T63/L31) + OGCM4 10 members
+ - CanCM4 = AGCM4(T63/L35) + OGCM4 10 members
• 20 Assimilation & forecast streams
• “Burst” initialization - Initial conditions valid just before forecast starts – no time lags
• System climatology based on CanCM3 + CanCM4 Hindcasts
- Initialized every month 1981-2010 (30 years)
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Nudging (IUA)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h
R R R R
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Anomaly correlation skill 2-tier vs CanSIPS
2-tier
CanSIPS
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First season (Lead 0 months)Global 2m temperature
Mean Seasonal Global 2m Temp Anomaly Correlation Lead 0 All Forecasts 1979-2001 ERA Verification
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Global Land Ocean
Ano
mal
y C
orre
latio
n
CanCM3
CanCM4
CHFP2
HFP2/MM4
Pre
vio
us
s
ys
temC
anC
M3
Can
CM
3
Can
CM
3
Can
CM
4
Can
CM
4
Can
CM
4
Can
SIP
S Can
SIP
S Can
SIP
S
Pre
vio
us
s
ys
tem
Pre
vio
us
s
ys
tem
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First seasonCanada 2m temperature
Can
SIP
S Can
SIP
S
Pre
vio
us
s
ys
tem
Pre
vio
us
s
ys
tem
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First seasonCanada 2m temperature
Can
SIP
S Can
SIP
S
Pre
vio
us
s
ys
tem
Pre
vio
us
s
ys
tem
No
s
kill
No
s
kill
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CanSIPS forecastsJune-July-August 2012
Temperature Precipitation
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CanSIPS forecastsJune-July-August 2012
Temperature Precipitation
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Temperature
Precipitation
CanSIPS forecastsJune-July-August 2012
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ENSO Skill - Nino 3.4 region -
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ENSO Prediction SkillCase Study: 1997-98 El Niño
Niño3.4 hindcasts initialized monthly from 1 Jan 1997 to 1 Dec 1997
1997 1998 1997 1998
OBS
CanCM3
CanCM4
CanSIPS =CanCM3+4
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CanSIPS vs
CFSv2
CanSIPS vs
CFSv1
CanSIPS
CanSIPS
ENSO Skill Comparison with NCEP CFS
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• New products
- Nino indices
- Sea Ice
- Tropical cyclone potential
- ...• New web interface
- Menu driven
- Interactive display of probability forecasts
- Display all hindcasts, verifications
CanSIPS phase II implementation
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We are considering:
• More ensemble members
• Higher resolution
• Improved ocean data assimilation in CanCM3/4
• Add coupled GEM-NEMO (GEM=NWP model)
• Land surface data assimilation
Towards CanSIPSv2
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For more information
• Details of recent implementations at CMC– http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/product_guide/docs/changes_e.html
• Environment Canada’s official seasonal forecast web pages
– http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html
• Description of Climate models developed at CCCma- http://www.ec.gc.ca/ccmac-cccma/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A642EDE-1