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CAPA Global LCC Summit Robert Neal, VP Fleet & Corporate Finance March 2018

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Page 1: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

CAPA Global LCC SummitRobert Neal, VP Fleet & Corporate Finance

March 2018

Page 2: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Forward looking statements

2

This presentation as well as oral statements made by officers or directors of Allegiant TravelCompany, its advisors and affiliates (collectively or separately, the "Company“) will contain forward-looking statements that are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-lookingstatements may include, among others, references to future performance and any commentsabout our strategic plans. There are many risk factors that could prevent us from achieving ourgoals and cause the underlying assumptions of these forward-looking statements, and our actualresults, to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our forward-looking statements.These risk factors and others are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities andExchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements are based on information available to ustoday and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether asa result of future events, new information or otherwise. The Company cautions users of thispresentation not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which may be based onassumptions and anticipated events that do not materialize.

Page 3: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

A Different kind of LCC

3

n Leisure customer– Will travel in all economic conditions– Vacations are valued – price dependent– Stimulate demand with low no-frills base fare

n Small/medium cities– Filling a large void – Increasing opportunity - industry restructuring– Diversity of network - minimizes competition

n Flexibility– Adjust rapidly to changing macro (fuel/economy)– Changes in capacity - immediate impact on price– Minimize threat of irrational behavior from others

n Low cost fleet – primarily used aircraft– Match capacity to demand, highly variable– Relatively low capital needs, higher free cash flow– Can grow and return cash to shareholders

Built to be different

Leisure customer

Unbundled pricing

Ancillary revenue

Underserved markets

Little competition

Low cost aircraft

Low frequency/variable capacity

Closed distribution

Highly profitable

Page 4: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Revenue components

4

$91.30

$78.63

$68.47 $67.40

$60

$70

$80

$90

2014 2015 2016 2017

Average fare - scheduled service

$4.56

$4.29$4.08

$4.34

$3.00

$5.00

2014 2015 2016 2017

Average fare - ancillary third party products

$41.37

$46.43$45.40 $45.02

$40.00

$50.00

2014 2015 2016 2017

Average fare - ancillary air-related charges

$137.23

$129.35

$117.96 $116.77

$110

$120

$130

$140

2014 2015 2016 2017

Average fare - total

All revenue is revenue per scheduled passenger

Page 5: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Based on current published schedule through August 14, 2018396 routes, 95 operating aircraft

98 small/medium cities, 21 leisure destinations

5

Stars– leisure destinations

A very large niche

Page 6: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Little competition

98

114

136

161168

181

207221

255

294

314

86

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017

Historic level of non-competitive routes

Routes without competition Routes with competition

6

Based on current published schedule through August 14, 2018, announcements and cancellations as of December 12, 2017

Legacy carriers – American, Delta, Southwest, United. Brand / lower cost carriers – Alaska, Hawaiian, JetBlue

ULCC carriers – Frontier, Spirit

Competitive routes are those that have non-stop flights between similar markets

Competitors – overlapping routes

Legacy carriers 66 Brand/lower cost carriers 7 ULCC’s 59

Page 7: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Low frequency model

7

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Syst

em b

lock

hou

rs/A

C/d

ay

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

Avg. block hours/AC/day

1 - Peak = peak is defined as 11/23 – 12/1, 12/21 – 1/3, 2/18 – 4/14, 6/3 – 8/18. Remaining is off peak

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

2x 3x 4x 5x or greater%

of t

otal

dep

artu

res

Weekly frequency of departures

Weekly market frequency

Peak Off peak

Leisure = seasonality Small cities = low frequency(1)

Page 8: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Low costs even with low utilization

8.3JBLU

5.6SAVE

7.5ALK

6.6ALGT

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0

CAS

Mex

fuel

(ce

nts)

Average daily aircraft utilization – LTM (block hours per day)

FY17 CASM ex fuel vs daily aircraft utilization

8

As of FY 2017, ALGT – Allegiant, JBLU – JetBlue, ALK – Alaska mainline, SAVE – Spirit as of 3Q17Allegiant is ex $35m MD-80 impairment taken in 4Q17

Page 9: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Fleet plan

37

22

32 37 37

10

27

3848

2023

25

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

AC

cou

nt E

OY

Aircraft by seat count

MD80 (166 seats) A319 (156 seats) A320 (186 seats) A320 (177 seats)

9

Estimated aircraft count at end of year186 seat density project dependent on outside supply chains and could impact the schedule

Total89 Total

82

Total100

Total110

Page 10: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Aircraft profitability comparison

10

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

EBIT

/ Ai

rcra

ft (in

$m

illio

ns)

Utili

zatio

n (B

lock

Hou

rs /

Airc

raft

Day)

Projected EBIT / AC vs projected utilization / AC

MD80 Utilization Airbus Utilization MD80 EBIT / Aircraft Airbus EBIT / Aircraft

Notes: Airbus is 176 seat A320Fuel price assumption of $2.17/galDoes not include 2020 revenue initiatives

Page 11: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

2018 cost drivers

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69.4 70.2 71.6 72.5 – 73.0

77.5 – 79.5

65

70

75

80

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

ASMs per gallon

105.2103.4

110.7105 - 110

95 – 105

97.0

102.0

107.0

112.0

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

Maintenance /Aircraft / Month ($000s)

101.1

109.6104.9

90.0

105.0

120.0

135.0

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E

Depreciation /Aircraft / Month ($000s)

Estimates are based on various assumptions which may not materialize

n Fuel expense– Improve with fleet transition

n Maintenance expense– Less MD-80 heavy maintenance

n Depreciation expense– More expensive Airbus– Capitalize Airbus heavy maintenance– Offset by $35m MD-80 impairment

Page 12: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

FY 2017 cost per passenger

Low cost drivers

$28 $24 $30 $34$10 $15 $11 $14$9 $5 $8

$16

$30 $22

$56 $47

$23 $27

$31 $40

ALGT SAVE LUV JBLU

12

Source: Company filingsOwnership includes depreciation & amortization + aircraft rentOther excludes special items and one-time charges for other carriersAllegiant other excludes $35m MD-80 impairment taken in 4Q17SAVE – as of Q317

Other

Aircraft

$47 $49 $64

$53$87 $87

Ex fuel cost = $72Fuel cost = $28

Total Allegiant = $100

Ex fuel cost = $106Fuel cost = $30

Total Southwest = $136

Ex fuel cost = $117Fuel cost = $34

Total JetBlue = $151

$44

$49

Ex fuel cost = $69Fuel cost = $24

Total Spirit = $93

Fuel Ownership Maintenance OtherLabor

Page 13: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Unique business model and resultsn Highly resilient and profitable

– Profitable last 60 quarters (1)

– 2017 adjusted EBITDA $384mm (2)

– 2017 Return on Equity 38%(2)

n Strong balance sheet– Rated BB- and Ba3(3)

– Adjusted debt/ EBITDAR 3.1x(2)

– $136mm returned to shareholders in 2017• $100 mm in share repurchase authority as of 1/31/18

– Recurring quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share

n Management owns >20%

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(1) Excluding non-cash mark to market hedge adjustments prior to 2008 and 4Q06 one time tax adjustment(2) See GAAP reconciliation and other calculations in Appendix(3) Corporate rating of Ba3 by Moody’s and BB- by Standard & Poor’s

Page 14: CAPA Global LCC Summit - Centre for Aviation€¦ · Revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47 $67.40 $60 $70 $80 $90 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average fare -scheduled service $4.56 $4.29

Thank you

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