capa global lcc summit - centre for aviation€¦ · revenue components 4 $91.30 $78.63 $68.47...
TRANSCRIPT
CAPA Global LCC SummitRobert Neal, VP Fleet & Corporate Finance
March 2018
Forward looking statements
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This presentation as well as oral statements made by officers or directors of Allegiant TravelCompany, its advisors and affiliates (collectively or separately, the "Company“) will contain forward-looking statements that are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-lookingstatements may include, among others, references to future performance and any commentsabout our strategic plans. There are many risk factors that could prevent us from achieving ourgoals and cause the underlying assumptions of these forward-looking statements, and our actualresults, to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our forward-looking statements.These risk factors and others are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities andExchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements are based on information available to ustoday and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether asa result of future events, new information or otherwise. The Company cautions users of thispresentation not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which may be based onassumptions and anticipated events that do not materialize.
A Different kind of LCC
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n Leisure customer– Will travel in all economic conditions– Vacations are valued – price dependent– Stimulate demand with low no-frills base fare
n Small/medium cities– Filling a large void – Increasing opportunity - industry restructuring– Diversity of network - minimizes competition
n Flexibility– Adjust rapidly to changing macro (fuel/economy)– Changes in capacity - immediate impact on price– Minimize threat of irrational behavior from others
n Low cost fleet – primarily used aircraft– Match capacity to demand, highly variable– Relatively low capital needs, higher free cash flow– Can grow and return cash to shareholders
Built to be different
Leisure customer
Unbundled pricing
Ancillary revenue
Underserved markets
Little competition
Low cost aircraft
Low frequency/variable capacity
Closed distribution
Highly profitable
Revenue components
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$91.30
$78.63
$68.47 $67.40
$60
$70
$80
$90
2014 2015 2016 2017
Average fare - scheduled service
$4.56
$4.29$4.08
$4.34
$3.00
$5.00
2014 2015 2016 2017
Average fare - ancillary third party products
$41.37
$46.43$45.40 $45.02
$40.00
$50.00
2014 2015 2016 2017
Average fare - ancillary air-related charges
$137.23
$129.35
$117.96 $116.77
$110
$120
$130
$140
2014 2015 2016 2017
Average fare - total
All revenue is revenue per scheduled passenger
Based on current published schedule through August 14, 2018396 routes, 95 operating aircraft
98 small/medium cities, 21 leisure destinations
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Stars– leisure destinations
A very large niche
Little competition
98
114
136
161168
181
207221
255
294
314
86
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017
Historic level of non-competitive routes
Routes without competition Routes with competition
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Based on current published schedule through August 14, 2018, announcements and cancellations as of December 12, 2017
Legacy carriers – American, Delta, Southwest, United. Brand / lower cost carriers – Alaska, Hawaiian, JetBlue
ULCC carriers – Frontier, Spirit
Competitive routes are those that have non-stop flights between similar markets
Competitors – overlapping routes
Legacy carriers 66 Brand/lower cost carriers 7 ULCC’s 59
Low frequency model
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3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Syst
em b
lock
hou
rs/A
C/d
ay
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
Avg. block hours/AC/day
1 - Peak = peak is defined as 11/23 – 12/1, 12/21 – 1/3, 2/18 – 4/14, 6/3 – 8/18. Remaining is off peak
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2x 3x 4x 5x or greater%
of t
otal
dep
artu
res
Weekly frequency of departures
Weekly market frequency
Peak Off peak
Leisure = seasonality Small cities = low frequency(1)
Low costs even with low utilization
8.3JBLU
5.6SAVE
7.5ALK
6.6ALGT
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
CAS
Mex
fuel
(ce
nts)
Average daily aircraft utilization – LTM (block hours per day)
FY17 CASM ex fuel vs daily aircraft utilization
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As of FY 2017, ALGT – Allegiant, JBLU – JetBlue, ALK – Alaska mainline, SAVE – Spirit as of 3Q17Allegiant is ex $35m MD-80 impairment taken in 4Q17
Fleet plan
37
22
32 37 37
10
27
3848
2023
25
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
AC
cou
nt E
OY
Aircraft by seat count
MD80 (166 seats) A319 (156 seats) A320 (186 seats) A320 (177 seats)
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Estimated aircraft count at end of year186 seat density project dependent on outside supply chains and could impact the schedule
Total89 Total
82
Total100
Total110
Aircraft profitability comparison
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-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
EBIT
/ Ai
rcra
ft (in
$m
illio
ns)
Utili
zatio
n (B
lock
Hou
rs /
Airc
raft
Day)
Projected EBIT / AC vs projected utilization / AC
MD80 Utilization Airbus Utilization MD80 EBIT / Aircraft Airbus EBIT / Aircraft
Notes: Airbus is 176 seat A320Fuel price assumption of $2.17/galDoes not include 2020 revenue initiatives
2018 cost drivers
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69.4 70.2 71.6 72.5 – 73.0
77.5 – 79.5
65
70
75
80
2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
ASMs per gallon
105.2103.4
110.7105 - 110
95 – 105
97.0
102.0
107.0
112.0
2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Maintenance /Aircraft / Month ($000s)
101.1
109.6104.9
90.0
105.0
120.0
135.0
2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E
Depreciation /Aircraft / Month ($000s)
Estimates are based on various assumptions which may not materialize
n Fuel expense– Improve with fleet transition
n Maintenance expense– Less MD-80 heavy maintenance
n Depreciation expense– More expensive Airbus– Capitalize Airbus heavy maintenance– Offset by $35m MD-80 impairment
FY 2017 cost per passenger
Low cost drivers
$28 $24 $30 $34$10 $15 $11 $14$9 $5 $8
$16
$30 $22
$56 $47
$23 $27
$31 $40
ALGT SAVE LUV JBLU
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Source: Company filingsOwnership includes depreciation & amortization + aircraft rentOther excludes special items and one-time charges for other carriersAllegiant other excludes $35m MD-80 impairment taken in 4Q17SAVE – as of Q317
Other
Aircraft
$47 $49 $64
$53$87 $87
Ex fuel cost = $72Fuel cost = $28
Total Allegiant = $100
Ex fuel cost = $106Fuel cost = $30
Total Southwest = $136
Ex fuel cost = $117Fuel cost = $34
Total JetBlue = $151
$44
$49
Ex fuel cost = $69Fuel cost = $24
Total Spirit = $93
Fuel Ownership Maintenance OtherLabor
Unique business model and resultsn Highly resilient and profitable
– Profitable last 60 quarters (1)
– 2017 adjusted EBITDA $384mm (2)
– 2017 Return on Equity 38%(2)
n Strong balance sheet– Rated BB- and Ba3(3)
– Adjusted debt/ EBITDAR 3.1x(2)
– $136mm returned to shareholders in 2017• $100 mm in share repurchase authority as of 1/31/18
– Recurring quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share
n Management owns >20%
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(1) Excluding non-cash mark to market hedge adjustments prior to 2008 and 4Q06 one time tax adjustment(2) See GAAP reconciliation and other calculations in Appendix(3) Corporate rating of Ba3 by Moody’s and BB- by Standard & Poor’s
Thank you
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