cape town accommodation performance review & forecast …€¦ · accommodation type and...
TRANSCRIPT
CAPE TOWN ACCOMMODATION Performance Review
& Forecast ReportDecember 2018
www.capetown.travel +27 (0)861 322 223 [email protected]
Report compiled in cooperation with Cape Town Tourism members
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
1
INSIDE THIS ISSUE:
Summary of Results 2 Actual Performance by Accommodation Type 3 Actual Performance by Geographic Location 6 Anticipated Performance by Accommodation Type 9 Anticipated Performance by Geographic Location 10 Explanation of Terms 11 Survey Methodology 12 Contact Details 13
We are pleased to present the Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review Report in respect of the month of December 2018 and Forecast Report for the coming two month period of January 2019 and February 2019. The Report aims to reflect the performance of the accommodation sector within the Cape Town metropole on a monthly basis. For the purposes of this analysis, Cape Town Tourism’s accommodation members were asked to share actual performance at their respective accommodation establishments in respect of the month of December 2018 as well as forecast their respective accommodation establishment’s performance in terms of likely market demand in the coming two month period. In total 99 accommodation members participated in the analysis representing some 77 872 available room nights in respect of the period under review. This Report summarizes the outcome of the Survey. The results are segmented by accommodation type and geographic location, which should provide for interesting benchmarking opportunities. Of the 99 participants, approximately 20 percent represented member establishments located in the City Centre. Participants representing member establishments situated along the Atlantic Seaboard and in the Southern Peninsula accounted for a further approx. 18 percent and 15 percent respectively followed by feedback received from members situated in the Northern Suburbs (approx. 12 percent); along the Blaauwberg Coast and in the Helderberg (approx. 11 percent respectively); and Southern Suburbs (approx. 10 percent); whereas feedback received from representatives of member establishments situated on the Cape Flats represented approx. 2 percent of responses received respectively. Approx. 1 percent of the responses received had to be discarded. The majority of participants represented guesthouses (approx. 38 percent) followed by hotels (approx. 20 percent); self catering establishments (approx. 19 percent); bed & breakfast establishments (approx. 16 percent); backpacker establishments (approx. 5 percent); and lodges (approx. 1 percent) of the responses received. We would like to thank all the Cape Town Tourism accommodation members who participated and look forward to their continued support. We welcome any comments and suggestions that will make the Report more relevant and helpful to the Cape Town accommodation sector. Sincerely, Michelè de Witt I Director, Horwath HTL (South Africa)
SHARE OF PARTICIPANTS: Accommodation Type Geographic Location
Backpacker B&BGuesthouse HotelSelf Catering
City Centre Atlantic SeaboardBlaauwberg Coast HelderbergSouthern Peninsula Southern SuburbsNorthern Suburbs
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
2
SUMMARY OF RESULTS: Cape Town’s accommodation market registered positive growth across two of the three performance indicators
in respect of December 2018 when compared to the same month in 2017. Demand for accommodation declined marginally by approximately -0.3 percent whereas average room rate and resultant RevPAR both registered
positive growth of some 5.3 percent and some 4.9 percent respectively when compared to performance registered in these two indicators in December 2017.
Actual performance registered in respect of occupancy and RevPAR in December 2018 underperformed expectations registered the prior month; actual demand by approx. – 6.7 percent and RevPAR by approx. – 0.9
percent. Actual average room rate recorded in respect of December 2018 exceeded expectations by approx. + 8.6 percent.
The aggregate performance reported in each of the three indicators in respect of December 2018 is detailed below:
Occupancy: 69.1 percent compared to 69.4 percent last year ~ - 0.3 percentage points;
Average room rate: R2 272 compared to R2 158 last year ~ + 5.3 percent; and
Revenue per available room: R1 571 compared to R1 498 last year ~ + 4.9 percent. On aggregate, feedback received indicates approximately 52.4 percent of room nights sold in December 2018 were sold to international source markets whereas approximately 40.7 percent of room nights were sold to the
domestic source market. Regional source markets contributed approximately 6.9 percent of total room nights sold in December 2018.
Anticipated performance for the coming two months:
January 2019:
Occupancy: 70.6 percent compared to 68.5 percent forecast last month;
Average room rate: R2 277 compared to R2 415 forecast last month; and
Revenue per available room: R1 607 compared to R1 654 forecast last month. February 2019:
Occupancy: 75.4 percent;
Average room rate: R2 348; and
Revenue per available room: R1 771.
SUMMARY OF RESULTS: Occupancy Average Room Rate (ARR)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec-18 Dec-17 Jan-19 Feb-19R 0
R 500
R 1 000
R 1 500
R 2 000
R 2 500
Dec-18 Dec-17 Jan-19 Feb-19
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
3
ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE:
Occupancy: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017
Overall Average 69.1% 69.4% - 0.3%
Backpacker 77.2% 77.1% + 0.1%
Bed & Breakfast 76.4% 72.9% + 3.5%
Guesthouse 63.6% 67.9% - 4.4%
Hotel 69.6% 69.1% + 0.4%
Lodge * * *
Self Catering 72.6% 71.5% + 1.1%
Average Room Rate: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017
Overall Average R2 272 R2 158 + 5.3%
Backpacker R505 R451 + 11.9%
Bed & Breakfast R1 063 R908 + 17.1%
Guesthouse R2 232 R2 121 + 5.2%
Hotel R2 340 R2 319 + 0.9%
Lodge * * *
Self Catering R3 282 R2 621 + 25.2%
ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE: Occupancy Average Room Rate
* Where data received was insufficient to allow for reasonable comparison, it was omitted
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bac
kpac
ker
B&
B
Gue
stho
use
Hot
el
Sel
f C
ater
ing
Dec-18
Dec-17
R 0
R 500
R 1 000
R 1 500
R 2 000
R 2 500
R 3 000
R 3 500
Bac
kpac
ker
B&
B
Gue
stho
use
Hot
el
Sel
f C
ater
ing
Dec-18
Dec-17
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
4
RevPAR: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017
Overall Average R1 571 R1 498 + 4.9%
Backpacker R389 R347 + 12.1%
Bed & Breakfast R812 R662 + 22.7%
Guesthouse R1 419 R1 441 - 1.6%
Hotel R1 628 R1 603 + 1.5%
Lodge * * *
Self Catering R2 383 R1 874 + 27.2%
Source Market Analysis: December 2018
Domestic Regional/ Africa International
Overall Average 40.7% 6.9% 52.4%
Backpacker 24.4% 6.5% 69.0%
Bed & Breakfast 66.8% 3.9% 29.3%
Guesthouse 41.3% 1.7% 57.0%
Hotel 35.1% 9.8% 55.1%
Lodge * * *
Self Catering 56.5% 0.0% 43.5%
Average Number of Guests per Room Night Sold: December 2018
Domestic Regional/ Africa International
Overall Average 1.7 1.8 2.0
Backpacker 1.5 1.7 1.8
Bed & Breakfast 1.8 2.0 2.0
Guesthouse 1.7 1.8 1.9
Hotel 1.8 1.8 2.0
Lodge * * *
Self Catering 1.8 0.0 2.0
* Where data received was insufficient to allow for reasonable comparison, it was omitted
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
5
12-Month Performance Review
BACKPACKER
HOTEL
BED & BREAKFAST
SELF CATERING
GUESTHOUSE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0R 75
R 150R 225R 300R 375R 450R 525R 600
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0
R 500
R 1 000
R 1 500
R 2 000
R 2 500
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0
R 250
R 500
R 750
R 1 000
R 1 250
R 1 500
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0R 500
R 1 000R 1 500R 2 000R 2 500R 3 000R 3 500
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0
R 500
R 1 000
R 1 500
R 2 000
R 2 500
R 3 000
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
6
ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION:
Occupancy: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017
Overall Average 69.1% 69.4% - 0.3%
City Centre 71.4% 69.8% + 1.6%
Atlantic Seaboard 71.0% 77.6% - 6.5%
Blaauwberg Coast 79.2% 80.8% - 1.5%
Cape Flats * * *
Helderberg 46.0% 48.9% - 2.8%
Southern Peninsula 66.9% 70.0% - 3.1%
Southern Suburbs 72.9% 69.0% + 3.9%
Northern Suburbs 75.5% 73.2% + 2.3%
Average Room Rate: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017
Overall Average R2 272 R2 158 + 5.3%
City Centre R2 723 R2 578 + 5.6%
Atlantic Seaboard R2 636 R2 502 + 5.3%
Blaauwberg Coast R1 680 R1 598 + 5.1%
Cape Flats * * *
Helderberg R1 126 R1 077 + 4.5%
Southern Peninsula R1 068 R973 + 9.7%
Southern Suburbs R2 887 R2 797 + 3.2%
Northern Suburbs R1 304 R1 276 + 2.2%
ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION: Occupancy Average Room Rate
* Where data received was insufficient to allow for reasonable comparison, it was omitted
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
City
Cen
tre
Atla
ntic
Sea
boar
d
Bla
auw
berg
Coa
st
Hel
derb
erg
Sou
ther
nP
enin
sula
Sou
ther
nS
ubur
bs
Nor
ther
nS
ubur
bs
Dec-18Dec-17
R 0
R 500
R 1 000
R 1 500
R 2 000
R 2 500
R 3 000
City
Cen
tre
Atla
ntic
Sea
boar
d
Bla
auw
berg
Coa
st
Hel
derb
erg
Sou
ther
nP
enin
sula
Sou
ther
nS
ubur
bs
Nor
ther
nS
ubur
bs
Dec-18Dec-17
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
7
RevPAR: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017
Overall Average R1 571 R1 498 + 4.9%
City Centre R1 944 R1 800 + 8.0%
Atlantic Seaboard R1 872 R1 941 - 3.6%
Blaauwberg Coast R1 331 R1 291 + 3.1%
Cape Flats * * *
Helderberg R518 R526 - 1.5%
Southern Peninsula R714 R681 + 4.9%
Southern Suburbs R2 104 R1 930 + 9.0%
Northern Suburbs R984 R933 + 5.4%
Source Market Analysis: December 2018
Domestic Regional/ Africa International
Overall Average 40.7% 6.9% 52.4%
City Centre 20.1% 9.2% 70.8%
Atlantic Seaboard 49.5% 4.7% 45.8%
Blaauwberg Coast 57.8% 9.8% 32.4%
Cape Flats * * *
Helderberg 56.0% 9.4% 34.7%
Southern Peninsula 26.5% 1.0% 72.4%
Southern Suburbs 47.9% 1.4% 50.7%
Northern Suburbs 82.2% 4.4% 13.4%
Average Number of Guests per Room Night Sold: December 2018
Domestic Regional/ Africa International
Overall Average 1.7 1.8 2.0
City Centre 1.6 1.7 1.9
Atlantic Seaboard 1.8 1.6 2.1
Blaauwberg Coast 1.9 1.7 1.5
Cape Flats * * *
Helderberg 1.9 2.0 2.0
Southern Peninsula 1.8 3.0 2.0
Southern Suburbs 1.4 1.8 2.0
Northern Suburbs 1.8 2.5 2.0
* Where data received was insufficient to allow for reasonable comparison, it was omitted
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
8
12-Month Performance Review
CITY CENTRE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA
ATLANTIC SEABOARD
SOUTHERN SUBURBS
BLAAUWBERG COAST
NORTHERN SUBURBS
HELDERBERG
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0
R 500
R 1 000
R 1 500
R 2 000
R 2 500
R 3 000
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0
R 250
R 500
R 750
R 1 000
R 1 250
R 1 500
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0R 500
R 1 000R 1 500R 2 000R 2 500R 3 000R 3 500R 4 000
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
R 0R 500
R 1 000R 1 500R 2 000R 2 500R 3 000R 3 500
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0R 250R 500R 750
R 1 000R 1 250R 1 500R 1 750
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
R 0
R 250
R 500
R 750
R 1 000
R 1 250
R 1 500
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
R 0
R 250
R 500
R 750
R 1 000
R 1 250
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Average Room Rate Occupancy
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
9
ANTICIPATED PERFORMANCE BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE: Forecast Occupancy
January 2019 February 2019
Overall Average 70.6% 75.4%
Backpacker 69.6% 67.6%
Bed & Breakfast 75.9% 75.1%
Guesthouse 66.7% 72.4%
Hotel 71.4% 78.5%
Lodge * *
Self Catering 72.6% 71.6%
Forecast Average Room Rate
January 2019 February 2019
Overall Average R2 277 R2 348
Backpacker R502 R534
Bed & Breakfast R1 032 R1 041
Guesthouse R2 516 R2 325
Hotel R2 246 R2 389
Lodge * *
Self Catering R3 412 R3 429
Forecast RevPAR
January 2019 February 2019
Overall Average R1 607 R1 771
Backpacker R362 R361
Bed & Breakfast R783 R781
Guesthouse R1 679 R1 684
Hotel R1 604 R1 874
Lodge * *
Self Catering R2 475 R2 456
* Where data received was insufficient to allow for reasonable comparison, it was omitted
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
10
ANTICIPATED PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION: Forecast Occupancy
January 2019 February 2019
Overall Average 70.6% 75.4%
City Centre 72.7% 75.5%
Atlantic Seaboard 71.9% 81.9%
Blaauwberg Coast 76.5% 73.7%
Cape Flats * *
Helderberg 55.8% 70.0%
Southern Peninsula 69.8% 65.1%
Southern Suburbs 70.4% 70.9%
Northern Suburbs 73.6% 78.5%
Forecast Average Room Rate
January 2019 February 2019
Overall Average R2 277 R2 348
City Centre R2 650 R2 859
Atlantic Seaboard R2 771 R2 640
Blaauwberg Coast R1 621 R1 598
Cape Flats * *
Helderberg R1 176 R1 160
Southern Peninsula R1 034 R1 066
Southern Suburbs R3 241 R3 452
Northern Suburbs R1 261 R1 276
Forecast RevPAR
January 2019 February 2019
Overall Average R1 607 R1 771
City Centre R1 927 R2 158
Atlantic Seaboard R1 992 R2 163
Blaauwberg Coast R1 241 R1 178
Cape Flats * *
Helderberg R656 R812
Southern Peninsula R722 R694
Southern Suburbs R2 282 R2 446
Northern Suburbs R927 R1 001
* Where data received was insufficient to allow for reasonable comparison, it was omitted
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
11
EXPLANATION OF TERMS:
OCCUPANCY
The term Occupancy refers to the number of room nights sold, divided by the number of room
nights available in respect of a defined period in time, expressed as a percentage.
AVERAGE ROOM RATE
The term Average Room Rate is an accommodation establishment’s net accommodation revenue
per room night sold. The Average Room Rate excludes meals and any other items that may be
included in the Rack Rate and accounts for all discounts and the incidence of multiple occupancy.
REVPAR
Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) is a conceptual link between average occupancy rates and
Average Room Rates; it is the net accommodation revenue per day, per available room.
DOMESTIC SOURCE MARKET
Domestic tourism refers to residents of South Africa travelling within South Africa.
REGIONAL/ AFRICAN SOURCE MARKET
Regional/ African tourism refers to residents from a country on the African Continent travelling to
South Africa.
INTERNATIONAL SOURCE MARKET
International tourism refers to residents from a country in one region of the world (e.g.: Europe),
excluding Africa, travelling to South Africa.
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
12
SURVEY METHODOLOGY:
As with all studies of this kind, a random sample of data collection methodology was used to
enlist participants for this report. Therefore, while we believe the results to be the most accurate
available, they are still subject to non-sampling errors. In addition, although the information in this
report has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate, we do not
guarantee its accuracy since it is submitted by third parties.
The values presented in the report, both for the current month and in respect of the same period
last year, are averages of the responding establishments’ data. We feel this calculation to be most
reflective of the industry segments.
This report is not intended to represent the rendering of legal, accounting, or professional
services. The values presented should not be considered a standard for any accommodation type
or geographic location, but only as a guideline for comparison with the performance results of your
establishment. They are not an attempt by the publisher of this report to set or conform prices or
operating standards for the accommodation sector within the Cape Town metropole.
Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018
Powered by
13
CONTACT DETAILS:
CAPE TOWN TOURISM
Physical address: The Pinnacle Building ▪ cnr Burg & Castle Street ▪ Cape Town ▪ 8000
Postal address: P O Box 1403 ▪ Cape Town ▪ 8001 ▪ South Africa
Telephone: +27 (0)21 487 6800
Facsimile +27 (0)21 487 6440
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.capetown.travel
HORWATH HTL
Physical address: Office 16 ▪ Klein Joostenberg on the R304 ▪ Muldersvlei ▪
Stellenbosch ▪ 7607
Postal address: P O Box 50388 ▪ West Beach ▪ 7449 ▪ South Africa
Telephone: +27 (0)21 884 3200
Facsimile +27 (0)21 884 3201
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.HorwathHTL.co.za ▪ www.HorwathHTL.com