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Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany:

Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

NEWSPRESS RELEASESDoes the Money Match the Targets? - Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Martin Lange

German Environment Agency, Section I 3.2

„Pollution Abatement and Energy Saving in Transport“

7th of December 2016 – Brussels, Belgium

• Goal: Reducing GHG emissions across all sectors by 95 %

until 2050 compared to 1990

Motivation –UBA-study: Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country

Carbon Neutral Transport in Germany: Scenarios to 2050 and infrastructure requirements

2

Source: UBA 2014

1990

2010

GHG-neutral

Germany2050

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Energy

Transport

Industry

Agriculture

LULUCF

Waste

Emissions in mt CO2eq

2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets

Link to Study

Ambitious climate protection targets in transport require a general transition in the sector

Electric vehicles(incl. OC-hybrid

trucks)

Final energy demand

(relative to: 2005)

Avoid transport

+ Shift transport

+ Improve efficiency

GHG-emissions(relative to:

1990)

-95%

-80%

-50%

-95%

-80%

-50%

Avoid transport

+ Shift transport

+ Improve efficiency

General transition

in transport

+Energy

transition in transport

-100%

Alternative drivesand GHG-neutral

energy supply options

-100%

Example:GHG-neutral Germany in 2050

3



Post-fossil energy supply options:various suitable pathways

Alternative drives

Fuel cell vehicles that use

electricity-based hydrogen

Conventional drives(Internal Combusion engine)

Energy transition in

transport

Gaseous and

liquid

Biofuels

Gaseous and

liquid

electricity-based hydrocarbons

Electric vehicles and renewable electricity(incl. off-vehicle

charging hybrids

and overhead

caternary trucks)



5


Working principle of Power to Gas/Liquid (PtG/PtL)


On the study: items included and some main assumptions

STUDIED ITEMS:

• Adaptation at vehicles & energy-supply infrastructure

• Costs for energy carrier are also approximated

• Final energy demands of sector and economic costs

for transition to 2050 in Germany

THINGS THAT ARE THE SAME IN THE SCENARIOS:

• Transport performance for different means of transport

• overall number vehicles

• improvements of efficiency and production

costs of vehicles and energy carriers

AGGREGATION FOR MEANS OF ROAD-TRANSPORT

• Short haul transport

(2-wheeler, light vehicles, trucks in short-haul traffic)

• Long haul transport

(trucks and busses in long-haul traffic)



“Determining an expert strategy for the energy supply of the transport sector up to 2050”

Link (German only)

Study by Oeko-Institut; INFRAS AG and DVGW-EBI for UBA.

6

Four energy supply scenarios that span a wide solution space and are carbon neutral in 2050


Partial electrification of LDV and short haul trucks*

* LNG/PtG-CH4 partially substitutes heavy oil in shipping

+ further electrification (LDV, trucks)

+ el. busses + Overhead caternary hybrid trucks E+

+ further use of liquid hydrocarbonsLiq+

+ change to gaseous hydrocarbons when possibleCH4+

+ change to hydrogen when possibleH2+

+ substitution of fossil fuels by

electricity-based ones: PtG/PtL

(Source: Oeko-Institut/

INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016)

7

Carbon

neutral

transport

in Germany

in 2050


today

Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks)


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Energy supply Gas stations &infrastructure

Vehicles Sum

E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+

Diffe

rential econom

iccosts

(bill

. €

20

10)

Energy supply Gas stations & charging points

Vehicles Sum

(So

urc

e: O

eko

-In

stitu

t/ IN

FR

AS

/DV

GW

-EB

I 2

01

6)


Strong electrification

Liquid fuels (PtL)

Gaseous hydrocarbons (PtG-CH4)

Hydrogen (PtG-H2)

Road: short haul transport (LDV, short haul trucks)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 -2015

2016 -2020

2021 -2025

2026 -2030

2031 -2035

2036 -2040

2041 -2045

2046 -2050

E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+

Diffe

rential econom

iccosts

(bill

. €

20

10)

(So

urc

e: O

eko

-In

stitu

t/ IN

FR

AS

/DV

GW

-EB

I 2

01

6)



Liquid fuels (PtL)


Hydrogen (PtG-H2)

Road: long haul transport (trucks/busses)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4

E+ Liq+ CH4+ H2+

Diffe

rential econom

iccosts

(bill

. €

20

10)

(So

urc

e: O

eko

-In

stitu

t/ IN

FR

AS

/DV

GW

-EB

I 2

01

6)


Energy supply Gas stations & caternary

Vehicles Sum


Liquid fuels (PtL)


Hydrogen (PtG-H2)

#1: Costs of energy supply infrastructure are often much smaller than costs for vehicles and for the supply of energy.

Differential economic costs for infrastructure for energy supply: short haul transport



E+Sum: 243,2 billion €2010

Liq+Sum: 334,7 billion €2010

H2+Sum: 738,3 billion €2010

Energy supply Gas stations &

charging points

Vehicles

11

(Source: Oeko-Institut/

INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016)

#2: Costs of energy supply structures are significant but even larger blocks of infrastructure costs are „hidden“ in production/supply of fuels and electricity.

Importance of infrastructure for electricity/fuel production



Costs are for: 1) RE generation

2) productions sites for carbon neutral fuels from electricity

3) preparation of products for transport, transport to and

distribution in Germany

Renewableelectricity (RE)

and

GHG-neutralfuels

12

Road – long haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification


#3: Overhead caternary trucks are energy and cost efficient but there are barriers to a market entry. Decision whether to build the system should be made as soon as possible and in accordance with climate targets.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

1 2 3 4 5 6

Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Energy supply

(Caternary and trucks) vs. Energy supply

Diffe

rential c

osts

of E

+ v

sLiq

+(b

ill. €

2010)

ww

w.s

iem

ens.c

om

/pre

sse

To benefit from potential savings:• a positive decision is

necessary soon• lead time to build up infrastructure

should be taken into account

• delayed phase-in of trucks should

also be considered

13

2021-2025

2031-2035

2041-2045

2026-2030

2036-2040

2046-2050

(Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/DVGW-EBI 2016)


Road – short haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification


2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 14

#4: Charging infrastructure for battery-electric and off-vehicle charging hybrid-electric vehicles has to be build up, as the electrification in short haul transport is an efficient and effective way to achieve a carbon neutral transport.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+ E+ Fl+

2020 2030 2040 2050

Nu

mb

er

of

ch

ari

ng

po

ints

Year / Scenario

home company public fast-charging

Mill

ions

Thousands

Nu

mb

er

of

po

ints

fo

r fa

st-

ch

arg

ing

(Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/

DVGW-EBI 2016)

Liq+ Liq+ Liq+ Liq+

Road – short haul transport: Infrastructure for electrification


2016/12/07 T&E: Aligning EU Investment in Transport Infrastructure with EU Climate Targets 15

#4: Charging infrastructure for battery-electric and off-vehicle charging hybrid-electric vehicles has to be build up soon. Electrification in short haul transport is an efficient and effective way to achieve a carbon neutral transport and a reasonable first step.

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

2021 -2025

2026 -2030

2031 -2035

2036 -2040

2041 -2045

2046 -2050

Gas stations & caternary Vehicles Energy supply

Diffe

rential c

osts

of E

+ v

s L

iq+

(bill

. €

2010)

(Charging points and vehicles) vs. Energy supply

• In short haul transport a

significant financial barrier with

additional costs exists

• In comparison to caternary

system a less pronounced

chicken-egg-dilemma

• Battery electric vehicles are

ready for the market and can

contribute to 2030 climate

targets (e.g. 40% in Germany)

Gas stations & charging (Source: Oeko-Institut/INFRAS/

DVGW-EBI 2016)

Summary and Outlook

16

A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY FOR

ENERGY SUPPLY OF TRANSPORT…

• Contains of a general transition and an energy

transition in transport

• Is in line with long-term climate targets and therefore

allows a shift to carbon neutral transport

• Builds where technically feasible on electric vehicles

as they use renewable electricity efficiently and are

therefore cost efficient -> infrastructure is crucial!

• Takes into account, that parts of long haul transport,

and (international) aviation & shipping require huge

amounts of PtG/PtL fuels to align with climate targets

• Considers, that costs for energy supply structures

are often much smaller than for energy supply itself



Thank you for your attention

10.10.2014 Austausch zur Energieversorgung im Verkehr

www.umweltbundesamt.de/verkehrwww.umweltbundesamt.de/en/topics/traffic-noise

Dr. Martin Lange

[email protected]

Phone: +49 340 2103 2310

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