carbon theme report and implementation 23 april 2004 23 april 2004 tokyo, japan berrien moore iii...

Carbon Theme Report and Implementation • 23 April 2004

23 April 2004Tokyo, Japan

Berrien Moore IIIInstitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space

University of New Hampshire

Carbon Theme Report and Implementation

IGOS-P Side Event at GEO4 in Tokyo


Thank you, David Keeling

Mauna Loa Monthly Carbon Dioxide Record:Keeling Record 1958 - 2000

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999

Year

Ca

rbo

n D

iox

ide

(p

pm

v)


2

4

6

8

Global(NOAA)

Cape Grim(CSIRO)

0

30

Fossil Fuel

Pinatubo

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

-30 El Nino

La Nina

Mauna Loa(Scripps/NOAA)

(R J Francey, pers. Com)

Gt.

C p

er y

ear

SO

I

Source: R. Francey (CSIRO)

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19851980 1990 1995 2000

8

6

4

2

30

0

-30

CO2 Annual Growth Rate

Year


Global C Budget (PgC/y)

1980s 1990sAtm. Increase 3.3+/-0.1 3.2+/-0.1

Emissions 5.4+/-0.3 6.3+/-0.4

Ocean-Atm. Flux -1.9+/-0.6 -1.7+/-0.5

Land-Atm. Flux* -0.2+/-0.7 -1.4+/-0.7

*partitioned as follows

Land Use 1.7(0.6-2.5) NA

Residual Terrestrial Sink

-1.9(-3.8-0.3) NA

Source: IPCC, 2001


CO2 Concentration in Ice Cores andAtmospheric CO2 Projection for Next 100 Years

(BP 1950)

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

CO

2 C

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

v)Vostok Record

Law Dome RecordMauna Loa RecordIPCC IS92a Scenario

Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; IPCC


Global Carbon Sources and Sinks

The Challenge


The objectives of a coordinated system of integratedglobal carbon observations

To provide the long-term observations required to improve

understanding of the present state and future behaviour of the

global carbon cycle, particularly the factors that control the

global atmospheric CO2 level.

•

To monitor and assess the effectiveness of carbon sequestration

and/or emission reduction activities on global atmospheric CO2 levels,

including attribution of sources and sinks by region and sector.

•


Fluxes Observations to enable quantification of the distribution and variability of CO2 fluxes between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere

PoolsObservations focused upon changes in the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial carbon pools

Processes Observations related to important carbon cycle processes. Most of these will remain in the research domain, to be coordinated within the framework of the International Global Carbon Project (GCP)

The coordinated system of global carbon observations should

be built around complementary core groups of observations

to address three themes: fluxes, pools, and processes

Carbon Theme Report and Implementation • 23 April 2004 Source: JGOFS / IGBP

CO2

PreindustrialCO2 :

maximumstrength biopump: 160 ppm

PreindustrialCO2:

Physical pumpalone: 400 ppm

Oceanic Primary Production: Sept. 97 – Aug. 98

CO2 CO2

Biological Pump Physical (solubility) Pump


R/V Roger Revelle


Multi-tiered System

620 ARGO Floats, as of January 2003


MODIS Ocean Chlorophyll


Bottom-up estimates of the surface ocean fluxes using

process based biogeochemical models and/or in situ measurements

Ocean Colour

60% global, over a 3-5 day timeframe

Ancillary Oceanic Data at Global Resolution

Ocean circulation and air-sea transfer (altimetry, SST, SSS, surface winds …)


C h a l l e n g e s o f a C h a n g i n g E a r t h — J u l y 2 0 0 1 C h a l l e n g e s o f a C h a n g i n g E a r t h — J u l y 2 0 0 1

CO2

GPPGPP

Plantrespiration

Plantrespiration

Soil and litterrespiration

Soil and litterrespiration DisturbanceDisturbance

Short-term

carbon uptake

NPP60 Gt/yr

Medium-term

carbon storage

NEP10 Gt/yr

Long-term carbon storage

NBP1-2 Gt/yr

Terrestrial EcosystemCarbon Uptake and Storage

Source: GCTE / IGBP


Forest Inventory and Analysis Information System


AmeriFlux, EuroFlux … and taller towers


SPOT 5 image of Iguacu, Brazil - September 2002


Land-cover Change

Resolution of 100 m at intervals of 5 years - to estimate the fluxes of carbon associated

with forest clearing and reversion of agricultural lands to natural ecosystems

Ecosystem DisturbancesFire distribution / hotspots at sub-daily resolution, burned areas at monthly resolution,

and other disturbances (insects, harvest, windstorms) at intervals of 1 year

Vegetation State and Activity

Directional reflectance with global coverage over weekly timeframe. Spatial resolution

of 1 km or better. Possibly hyper-spectral information. Focus includes leaf area index,

vegetation architecture and profile, albedo, F-PAR and related vegetation biophysical

properties, ecosystem condition, and gross and net primary productivity

Ancillary Terrestrial Data at Global Resolution

Climate and weather data, soil moisture content, and radiation diffuse and

direct components

Bottom-up estimates of the surface terrestrial fluxes using

process based biogeochemical models and/or in situ measurements


Global Carbon Sources and Sinks

The Challenge


Top-down estimates of the surface fluxes time varying distribution using atmospheric inverse models

Column-integrated atmospheric CO2

distribution to an accuracy of at least 1 ppm (0.3%) with synoptic global coverage,

if possible all latitudes, all seasons - with ground-based quality control

Attributing surface fluxes to combustion processes of biomass and fossil fuel

via atmospheric CO and combustion aerosol distributions with synoptic

global coverage equivalent to the one of CO2 - with ground-based quality control

Modelling the transport of atmospheric CO2

atmospheric structure, temperature, humidity, winds…


Orbiting Carbon Observatory - JPL


An Active Carbon Dioxide Mission: CELSIUS


Implementation issues

The main implementation issues highlighted for discussion by CEOS SIT-13:

1. The prospects for provision of the atmospheric measurements (notably

column CO2, CO and aerosols) required for top-down estimation of the surface

fluxes using atmospheric inverse models.

2. The prospects for development of ground-based solar observatories for CO2

to characterize the ultimate accuracy of the near IR absorption technique.

Such a ground based column CO2 network will also provide a unique control

for any space-based CO2 mission.

3. The prospect of an active mission that focuses upon the measurement of

column CO2 without diurnal, seasonal, latitudinal, or surface restrictions.

This mission could be accomplished with the measurement technique

based upon Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (LAS).

Finally, an overarching issue is for space agencies to consider how to support

the integration of the operational observations with process study results via

model-data fusion to give a holistic picture of the dynamics of the carbon cycle.


A Global Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System

Terrestrialcarbon model

Terrestrialcarbon model

AtmosphericTransport model

AtmosphericTransport model

Climate and weatherfields

Ecologicalstudies

Ecologicalstudies

Biomasssoil carbon inventories

Remote sensing ofAtmospheric CO2

Remote sensing ofVegetation propertiesGrowth CycleFiresBiomassRadiationLand cover /use

Remote sensing ofVegetation properties

Growth CycleFiresBiomassRadiationLand cover /use

Georeferencedemissions

Georeferencedemissionsinventories

AtmosphericmeasurementsAtmosphericmeasurements

Eddy-covarianceflux towers

Dataassimilation

link

Ocean carbonmodel

Ocean carbonmodel

Ocean remote sensingOcean colourAltimetryWindsSSTSSS

Ocean remote sensingOcean colourAltimetryWindsSSTSSS

Ocean time seriesBiogeochemical

pCO2

Surface observationpCO2

nutrients

Water column inventories

rivers

Lateral fluxesCoastal studies

optimizedFluxes

optimizedmodel

parameters


A Hierarchy of Approaches and Scales

Approach Scale

The source and sinks and

controlling processes will

only be determined within an

integrated approach where

point-wise in situ surface

measurements can be

scaled up using global satellite

datasets and models, and

then constrained and

verified by atmospheric CO2

concentration measurements.

The Carbon System

carbon theme report and implementation 23 april 2004 23 april 2004 tokyo, japan berrien moore iii...

Documents

global carbon sources

global carbon cycle

year carbon dioxide

ipcc slide

tokyo slide

challenge slide

implementation igosp

fluxes observations