Transboundary water cooperation in the Nile Basin: generating and sharing benefits? Ana Elisa Casco Kings College of London/ London Water Research Group DEV Seminars University of East Anglia 6th March 2009

Nile River Basin: Map

Nile River Basin: Overview

Nile Basin Hydropolitics SECURITISATION HYDRO-SOVEREIGNTY COOPERATION

• • Uneven distribution

• • Inequitable utilisation

• • Water = Politics

• • Water = National Security

• • Water = Sovereignty

• • Power asymmetries

• • Hydro-Hegemony ( Zeitoun and Warner 2006)

• • Problematic water agreements

• • Past: conflicts

• • Water-Sharing: political priority

Nile Basin: From conflict to cooperation?

Nile Basin Cooperation NILE BASIN INITIATIVE (1999) BENEFIT-SHARING PARADIGM

Benefit-Sharing Paradigm Benefits to the river Benefits from the river Benefits because of the river Benefits beyond the river BENEFITS OF COOPERATION Environmental Social Economic Political Sadoff and Grey 2002, 2005 A focus on sharing the benefits derived from the use of water, rather than the allocation of water itself, provides far greater scope for identifying mutually beneficial cooperative actions

Benefit & Cost Sharing Matrix Level Types of benefits Environmental Social Economic Political Regional National Local BENEFIT & COST SHARING MATRIX Benefits Costs/Constraints

Hydro-Sovereignty: current scenario Aswan High Dam (Egypt) Merowe Dam (Sudan) Tekezze Dam (Ethiopia) ZERO-SUM SCENARIO

Unilateral projects: limited benefits & high costs

• .

Level Types of benefits Environmental Social Economic Political Regional National Local BENEFITS: (unilateral)

• • National economic/social development

• • Consolidated water control

• • Political power (national and regional levels)

• • Bargaining power

COSTS/CONSTRAINTS:

• • Unsustainable development

• • Environmental impacts

• • Inequitable utilisation and allocation

• • Asymmetric water control

• • Political conflicts

• • Zero-sum outcomes

Nile Basin Initiative: Joint projects with potential for benefits

• Examples

• Hydropower production and trade

• Watershed management

• Irrigation development (upstream)

POSITIVE-SUM SCENARIO

1. Hydropower Production and Trade

Hydropower Production and Trade Level Types of benefits Environmental Social Economic Political Regional National Local BENEFITS:

• • Energy supplies

• • Power grid, pool and trade

• • Cheap electricity

• • Economic development

• • River regulation

• • Reduction of water losses

• • Sedimentation control

• • New water

COSTS/CONSTRAINTS:

• • Social and environmental externalities (regional and local levels)

• • Property rights and water allocations

• • Water-sharing negotiations

2. Watershed Management

Watershed Management

• .

Level Types of benefits Environmental Social Economic Political Regional National Local !! BENEFITS:

• • Environmental services

• • Ecosystem protection and conservation

• • Flood control

• • Erosion and sedimentation control

• • Livelihoods alternatives

• • Improved efficiency of dams

• • Cost reduction

COSTS/CONSTRAINTS:

• • Politically unattractive

• • Unclear Benefit-sharing negotiations

• • Unclear identification of trade-offs

3. Irrigation Development (upstream)

Irrigation Development (upstream) Level Types of benefits Environmental Social Economic Political Regional National Local BENEFITS:

• • Suitable sites for irrigation

• • Increased water productivity

• • Efficient water utilisation

• • Watershed management

• • Increased food production

• • Regional food market and trade

• • Economic development

• • Reduce food & poverty gaps

COSTS/CONSTRAINTS:

• • Water abstractions

• • Impacts on flows downstream

• • Politically controverse

• • Propoperty rights and water allocations

• • Water-Sharing negotiations

Why the benefit-sharing paradigm did not work (so far) in the Nile Basin? CONCEPTUAL REASONS Poorly understood and not coherently developed Extremely theoretical and complex Rational and economicist model No clear rationale POLITICAL REASONS Water-Sharing is still the main political priority Self-interests and sovereignty still guides political decision Poor understanding of basin-wide management & cooperation NBI no benefits delivered * Need to develop the concept further * Need to identify concrete development opportunities, incentives and trade-offs * Need to integrate BS and WS negotiations

Conclusions

• Cooperation: Potential exists!

• But Benefits and Positive-sum outcomes still need to be materialised

• Nile waters: Still extemely politicised

• Hydro-Sovereignty mindsets remain

• Water-Sharing still the priority

• Benefit-Sharing alone is not the solution

• Negotiations for Benefit-sharing and Water-Sharing cannot be separated

Transboundary water cooperation in the Nile Basin: generating and sharing benefits?

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