cc5001 planning tools part 2 2012

7/30/2019 CC5001 Planning Tools Part 2 2012

1/39

Planning Tools and Techniques

Part 2

1


2/39

2

Planning Tools and Techniques

Planning tools

Network diagrams

Critical path method

PERT analysis

Gantt charts

Resource histogram

Containment of risk


3/39

3

PERT analysis

PERT stands for:Program Evaluation & Review Technique

A way of modelling uncertainty when scheduling

If used properly will lead to more stable schedules


4/39

4

PERT analysis

Expected timecalculated from 3 estimates

for the duration of each activity

optimistic time(o)if things go well

most likely time(m)this is usually the original estimate

pessimistic time(p)if it can go wrong, it will...


5/39

5

PERT analysis

Based on distribution, the expected time teis calculated as:

te

= [o + 4m + p] / 6

Our activity B has estimate of 4. Let us say:

o = 3, m = 4, p = 11

te = [3 + 16 + 11] / 6

Expected time te is 5, longer than the most likely time

This could change the critical path in the network diagram


6/39

6

PERT analysis

try out the tasks past exam questions


7/397

Gantt charts

Devised by Henry Gantt (early 1900s)

Block representation of tasks

Length of task bar proportional to duration

Each start/end time represented by task bar Graphical representation of project

Can translate network diagram into Gantt chart

Easy to read


8/39

8

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects

set q's for questionnaire

issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire

have report proof read

Write report

Submit report

Can set questions while requesting and reviewing papers

Might not need two full weeks


9/399

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects


issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire


Write report

Submit report

Might be able to start this task early

...and finish early


10/3910

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects


issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire


Write report

Submit report

Might not haveto start this task straight away

Might want to delaywhile doing other things


11/39

11

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects


issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire


Write report

Submit report

Might be able to set questions in the middle of the time slot


12/39

12

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects


issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire


Write report

Submit report

Questionnaire must be prepared before it can be issued


13/39

13

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects


issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire


Write report

Submit report

Questionnaire must be issued & returned before results can be analysed


14/39

14

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects


issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire


Write report

Submit report

Analyse data before interviewing subjects


15/39

15

Gantt charts

Time line:week1

week2

week3

week4

week5

week6

week7

week8

week9

week10

Activities:

Request Jones paper

Request Smith paper

Review Jones paper

review Smith paper

Interview subjects


issue questionnaire

Analyse data from

q'naire


Write report

Submit report

Interview subjects before writing report


16/39

16

Gantt charts in MS Project

ID Task Name Duration

1 Task 1 3 days

2 Task 2 2 days

3 Task 3 5 days

4 Task 4 3 days

5 Task 5 6 days

6 Task 6 3 days

7 Task 7 4 days

8 Task 8 1 day

T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F

12 Mar '00 19 Mar '00


17/39

17

Gantt charts

In their basic form Gantt charts: Do not explicitly show logical dependencies

Do not optimise resources and costs Do not display current progress

But...They are simple to read


18/39

1818

Gantt charts in MS Project

ID Task Name

1 Activity 1

2 task 1.1

3 task 1.2

4 task 1.3

5 Activity 2

6 task 2.1

7 task 2.2

8 task 2.3

9 task 2.4

10 deliver

AB

AB[50%],CD[50%]

EF

AB

CD

AB,CD

EF

20/03

W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F

12 Mar '00 19 Mar '00


19/39

19

Gantt charts

In more advanced forms Gantt charts:

Soon become cluttered

Become more difficult to read

Become more difficult to update

Still cannot easily show all task dependencies

Require computer software to keep up to date


20/39

20

Gantt charts

try out the tasks including past exam papers


21/39

21

Resource histogram

Identifies resource requirements over time Helps to identify peak resource requirements

Helps to identify unnecessary peaks and troughs(resource smoothing: keep within limits)

Commonly used to analyse staff resource levels


22/39

22

Resource histogram

02

4

6

8

10

1214

16

18

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Week number

Staff required


23/39

23

Resource histogram

upper limit of

staff resources


24/39

24

Resource histogram

upper limit of

staff resources


25/39

25

Staff resources

try out the tasks including past exam papers


26/39

26

Risk: Isolate the Baseline Plan

Risksmust be associated with a planbefore

they can be handled

As risks could prevent the achievement of

objectives, plans for achieving objectives must

be in place before risks can be considered


27/39

27

Risk revisited

Identify: Whatare the potential risks?

Assess: What is the impactof each risk? What is the likelihoodof the risk occurring?

How can the risk be preventedoridentified early?

What needs to be doneif the risk does occur? Allocate:

To whom can I assignthe risk?


28/39

28

Containment

A new MS Access/Visual Basic system

for a retail company

Duration:requirements capture: 2 weeks

development: 8 weeksacceptance testing: 2 weeks


29/39

29

Sequence of Activities

Requirements

Capture

Development Acceptance

2 Weeks 8 Weeks 2 Weeks

Project will last 12 weeks (i.e. 2 + 8 + 2)


30/39

30

What is the risk?

There is an 90% chancethat this length of time is insufficient

because the MS Access specialist may be required to support a

project of higher priority.

If this were to happen, the 8 weeks scheduled for development

would then extend to 10 weeks

i.e. a 2 week delay

with 7 person-weeksfurther effort

Consider a containment action

investigate whether this is a cost-effective solution


31/39

31

Including the element of risk

RC Development Acceptance

Risk: 2 week over-run

2 Weeks 8 Weeks (10%) 2 Weeks

90%

10%

2 Weeks

7 Person Weeks

Project will last 12 weeks (10%) or14 weeks (90%)

10 Weeks (90%)


32/39

32

Containment Calculation

Expected value of additional duration

= 0.9 * 2

= 1.8 weeks

This evaluates the 90% chanceof a 2 week delay

Expected value of additional effort

= 0.9 * 7

= 6.3 person-weeksThis evaluates the 90% chanceof a further7 person-weeks

This calculation is without a containment action


33/39

33

Containment

A 3-week training course in parallel(i.e. 1 extra week) with

the requirements capture would reduce the risk to 25%

with an additional 2 person-weekseffort

Draw a diagram to show the containment actionand

recalculate the revised impact on effort and duration


34/39

34

Containing the risk

RC Development Acceptance

2 Weeks 2 Weeks

25%

75%

2 Weeks

7 Person-weeks

Course

3 Week course1 extraWeek

2 Person-weeks

Risk: 2 week over-run

Project will last 13 weeks (75%) or15 weeks (25%)

8 Weeks (75%)10 Weeks (25%)

Using a training course as

a containment action


35/39

3535

Containment Calculation

Expected value of additional duration

= 1 + (0.25 * 2)

= 1.5 weeks

This evaluates the extra weekon the course, plus the reducedrisk of 25%of a 2 week delay

Expected value of additional effort

= 2 + (0.25 * 7)

= 3.75 person-weeks

This evaluates extra 2 person-weekson the course, plus the

reduced risk of 25%of a further7 person-weeks

This calculation includes a containment action


36/39

3636

Dealing with risk

Would you book the course?

What other factors need to be considered?

How would the diagram look if the course is beforeRequirements Capture?

is betweenRequirements Capture and Development?


37/39

3737

Risk analysis

try out the tasks - including past exam papers


38/39

38


39/39

Further reading

Bentley C (1997) PRINCE 2: A Practical Handbook Oxford:

Butterworth-Heinemann

Brooks F. (1995) The Mythical Man-Month (Anniversary Edition),

Harlow: Addison-Wesley Burke R (1999). Project Management: Planning and Control

Techniques, Chichester: Wiley

Central Computer & Telecommunications Agency (1997)

PRINCE 2: An Outline, London: The Stationery Office

Field M & Keller L (1998) Project Management, Oxford:International Thomson Business Press

cc5001 planning tools part 2 2012

Documents