ccafs climate change agriculture and food security

Event name

CCAFS: An Overview

NamePosition

2 • 3/21/11

The Challenge

3 • 3/21/11

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for crop suitability

4 • 3/21/11

Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

5 • 3/21/11

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

6 • 3/21/11

In order to meet global

demands, we will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

7 • 3/21/11

“Unchecked climate change will result in a

20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full

mitigation scenario.

-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

8 • 3/21/11

Message 1:In the coming decades, climate

change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,

and rural livelihoods.

9 • 3/21/11

Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)

Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system

2006 2007 2008

Ecosystem valuation

Spot the livestock!

10 • 3/21/11

Message 2:With new challenges also come

new opportunities.

11 • 3/21/11

Program Design

12 • 3/21/11

CCAFS: the partnership

13 • 3/21/11

1. Identify and develop pro-poor

adaptation and mitigation

practices, technologies and

policies for agriculture and

food systems.

2.Support the inclusion of

agricultural issues in climate

change policies, and of

climate issues in agricultural

policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

14 • 3/21/11

The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change2.Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk3.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

•Linking Knowledge with Action•Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning•Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

15 • 3/21/11

Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices

The CGIAR Research Centers

Lead center - CIAT

16 • 3/21/11

Place-based field work

Indo-Gangetic Plains:There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase.

Regional director:Pramod Aggarwal

East Africa:Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.

Regional director:James Kinyangi

West Africa:Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods.

Regional director:Robert Zougmoré

17 • 3/21/11

Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

18 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

19 • 3/21/11


1.1

• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)

• Agricultural knowledge transfer

• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms

Adapted farming systems

1.2

• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies

• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities

Breeding strategies for

climate stresses

1.3

• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation

• On-farm use of diversity to adapt

• Policies of access for benefit sharing

Species and genetic diversity

20 • 3/21/11


>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up

Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture

What CCAFS output?

21 • 3/21/11


>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.

Why is it useful?

The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.

What CCAFS output?

22 • 3/21/11


>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future

The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

What CCAFS output?

Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

Why is it useful?

23 • 3/21/11 Karnal (India)

• Rainy season from June to September

24 • 3/21/11Farmer exchanges for adaptation knowledge management

25 • 3/21/11

TPE analysis

Future systems

Knowledge &

intuition

Ideotype concept

Gene/alleledisc

overy

Intelligent

phenotyping

designs

Marker develop

mt.

Modeling

Marker validatio

n,Integrati

on,G x E x M

Molecular

breeding

Intelligent choice

of populatio

ns

Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment

CHANGE

Con-vention

al breedin

g

Application

Methodology

Search

Function, regulatio

n,phénotyp

e

Strategic choices

DiversityPanels

BiparentalPops

CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2:

Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon

26 • 3/21/11

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)

20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites

Effect of +1ºC warming on yield

Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed

More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

27 • 3/21/11

• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions

New data

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)

28 • 3/21/11

Risk

Management

THE VISION

• Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency

• Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term

•Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.

29 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)

Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)

Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services

Managing Climate Risk · 2

30 • 3/21/11

Managing Climate Risk · 2

2.1

• Designed diversification

• Index-based risk transfer

• Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications

• Participatory action research

Building resilient livelihoods

2.2

• Manage price volatility via trade and storage

• Improved early warning systems

• Coordin. platform

• Food safety nets

• Post-crisis recovery

Food delivery, trade, and crisis

response

2.3

info.• Historical data reconstruction• Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions• Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases

services• Institutional arrangements• Communication processes• Capacity bldg for providers

Climate information and services

31 • 3/21/11

Managing climate risk · 2

>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance

• Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance• Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk

What CCAFS outputs?

Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index avoids the high cost of verifying losses and overcomes the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection and. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks.

Why is it useful?

In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.

32 • 3/21/11

Managing climate risk · 2

>> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data

Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across AfricaFilling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO

What CCAFS outputs?

Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc

Why is it useful?

33 • 3/21/11

Pro-poor Mitigation

VISION

Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes

Long-term: Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation

34 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways

Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements

Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

35 • 3/21/11


3.1

• Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation

• Assess impacts of current policies

• Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt

Low-carbon development

pathways

3.2

• Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer)

• Assess potential non-market options

• Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women

Incentives and instit.

arrangements

3.3

• Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms

• Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV.

• Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles.

On-farm mitigation

options

36 • 3/21/11

Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa

What CCAFS outputs?

• Direct link between research and action• Strong demand from carbon project managers

Why is it useful?


>> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research

37 • 3/21/11


>> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural emissions

Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts.

What CCAFS outputs?

Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.

Why is it useful?

38 • 3/21/11

Integration

VISION

•Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context

• Synthesize lessons learned

•Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers

•Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions

•Build partners’ capacity

39 • 3/21/11

T2: Risk Management

T3: Pro-poor Mitigation

Rural Livelihoods

Environment

Food Security

Integration for

Decision Making

40 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Linking knowledge with action

Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning

Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis

Integration for Decision Making · 4

41 • 3/21/11


4.1

• Regional scenarios

• Vulnerability assessments

• Approaches to decision making informed by good science

• Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups

Linking knowledge with

action

4.2

• Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts

• Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development

• Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders

Data and tools for analysis and

planning

4.3

• Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions

• Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies

• Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups

Frameworks for policy analysis

42 • 3/21/11

Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households

What CCAFS outputs?

• Sites for participatory action research• Guidance for research foci• Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts

Why is it useful?


>> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey

43 • 3/21/11

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/

>> Spotlight on:


A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe

What CCAFS outputs?

To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies

Why is it useful?

44 • 3/21/11

Select climate model (6 options

or their avg)

Select emission

s scenario(3 options)

Select the centre year of the time

slice

Select location Select the number of years of data desired

™


45 • 3/21/11Global scenarios …

… regional scenarios …

(demand, land use, global prices, etc)

Inputs

Ecosystem services

(regional prices, regional demand, policy & market environment, etc)

Checks for coherence, consistency, viability

Evaluating options:• Incomes• Food security• Livelihoods• Trade-offs

… household assessment

… providing context and inputs to …

… providing context and inputs to …

Checks for coherence, consistency, viability

AggregationDisaggregation

46 • 3/21/11

Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs

47 • 3/21/11

Building a user-driven agenda

• From large-scale stakeholder consultationse.g. GCARD, regional meetings

• Specific exercises with selected groups e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials

From local to regional to global

48 • 3/21/11

Mainstream outputs and outcomes

For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results.CLIFF, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, the Climate Food and Farming PhD student network

For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and resultsGovernments, civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector

e.g. User-driven regional scenarios

49 • 3/21/11

People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.

A Definition

• Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions• CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action

The CCAFS Vision

Capacity enhancement

50 • 3/21/11

• Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond• 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation• Early work in gender studies, opportunities for women scientists

Social differentiation

51 • 3/21/11

Join up climate, ag & food policy

• Based on robust science, what policy changes need to happen and what are the levers?• 13 Commissioners, 10 months

The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

• Putting agriculture and food security on the climate map• Global partners, major reach

Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)

52 • 3/21/11

The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals.

The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations.

Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)

Global policy impact

53 • 3/21/11

Urgent actions

in 2011

54 • 3/21/11

Participatory action research• Participatory trials of practices, tools & technologies

• Cross-site learning visits to empower farmers to build adaptation strategies

55 • 3/21/11

Communications & engagement on multiple fronts, with regional partners and farmers’ voices

Hope for agriculture in the UNFCCC? Hague process, Commission, ARDD, Meridian, SACAU & FANRPAN

Need to bring African policy-makers on board

Communications & policy outreach

56 • 3/21/11

Verbal, photo and video testimonials

• Link local & scientific knowledge • Communicate uncertainty

Amplifying rural voices

57 • 3/21/11

CCAFS Governance Structure

58 • 3/21/11

• Centers begin to adjust their CRP7 funded research agendas towards the broader CCAFS strategy, with support from CCAFS-led activities and through CCAFS established partnerships. • Low-hanging fruit inter-centre collaborations.

2011 as a transition year

• Centers fully aligned with CCAFS, and contributing to multi-center, multi-partner programs of work. • Budget assigned strategically.

2012 and beyond

CCAFS Start-Up

59 • 3/21/11

Subtotal Executed by Centers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total

Theme 1 Adaptation to progressive climate change

16.9 18.0 18.5 19.5 20.4 93.3

Theme 2 Adaptation through managing climate risk

5.3 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.7 33.4

Theme 3 Pro-poor climate change mitigation 7.9 8.6 9.5 10.0 10.5 46.4

Theme 4 Integration for decision making 9.7 10.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 55.1

CRP7, Theme and regional coordination 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 8.1

Subtotal 40.9 44.1 48.0 50.4 53.0 236.4

37%

14%19%

27%

3%Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change

Theme 2: Adaptation through managing climate risk Theme 3: Pro-- poor climate change mitigation

Theme 4: Integration for decision makingCRP7: Theme and regional coordination

CCAFS Budget

60 • 3/21/11

CCAFS Budget across centersCentre Theme 1 :

Progressive Climate Change

Theme 2 :Climate Risk

Theme 3 : Mitigation

Theme 4: Integration for

Decision Making

CRP7, Theme and Regional Coordination

Total Budget

CGIAR Fund Current and Projected Restricted Donor Projects and Other Sources of

Funds

% of Centre Budget

from Fund

AfricaRice 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 - 0.8 0.6 0.2 75%

Bioversity 5.6 - - - - 5.6 3.7 1.9 66%

CIAT 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.9 6.0 4.1 1.9 68%

CIFOR - - 1.0 - - 1.0 0.5 0.5 50%

CIMMYT 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.5 - 5.5 4.2 1.3 76%

CIP 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.0 - 3.0 1.8 1.2 61%

ICARDA 1.7 0.2 0.1 - - 2.0 1.5 0.5 74%

ICRAF 0.9 0.5 3.7 2.6 0.3 7.9 5.5 2.4 70%

ICRISAT 1.2 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.1 4.5 3.5 1.1 77%

IFPRI - - 0.3 3.8 0.2 4.2 2.0 2.2 47%

IITA 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 - 1.0 0.8 0.1 85%

ILRI 1.7 1.0 1.0 4.1 0.2 8.0 5.1 2.9 64%

IRRI 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 - 1.1 0.7 0.4 68%

IWMI 3.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 5.2 3.1 2.1 59%

WorldFish 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.8 - 2.0 0.4 1.6 20%

Total 21.2 8.3 10.9 15.6 1.8 57.8 37.4 20.3 65%

Coordination, Synthesis, Capacity Enhancement, Communications 4.6 3.1 1.5 68%

CGIAR System Costs 0.8 0.8 100%

Total Program costs

63.2 41.4 21.8 65%

61 • 3/21/11

Centre

Theme 1 :Progressive Climate

Change

Theme 1 Percentage of total

Theme 2 :Climate

Risk

Theme 3 : Mitigation


Theme 4: Integratio

n for Decision Making


CRP7, Theme

and Regional

Coordination

TotalCGIAR Fund

Current and

Projected Restricted

Donor Projects

and Other Sources of Funds

% of Centre Budget

from Fund

CIMMYT 2.0 10.5 2.1 0.9 10.9 0.5 4.9 0.0 5.5 4.2 1.3 76%

Bioversity 5.6 29.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 3.7 1.9 66%

ICRAF 0.9 5.0 0.5 2.3 28.0 1.2 12.3 0.0 4.9 2.5 2.4 51%

CIP 0.9 4.7 0.7 0.3 3.5 1.0 10.9 0.0 3.0 1.8 1.2 61%

ILRI 1.3 6.9 0.6 0.6 7.6 2.0 20.6 0.0 4.5 1.6 2.9 36%

ICRISAT 0.8 4.3 0.9 0.2 2.5 0.7 7.6 0.0 2.6 1.6 1.1 60%

ICARDA 1.7 9.2 0.2 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 74%

CIAT 1.2 6.3 0.0 1.2 13.9 0.7 7.3 0.0 3.0 1.1 1.9 36%

IWMI 3.1 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.0 2.1 32%

IITA 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.2 2.9 0.3 2.8 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.1 85%

IRRI 0.4 2.4 0.0 0.6 7.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 68%

AfricaRice 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.4 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.2 75%

CIFOR 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 50%

IFPRI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.0 2.4 24.9 0.0 2.6 0.4 2.2 16%

WorldFish 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.2 3.0 0.8 8.1 0.0 2.0 0.4 1.6 20%

CCAFS Budget across centers -

Unrestricted

62 • 3/21/11

ILRI Activity Plan part 1

Theme 1, Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners

1.1 Adapted Farming systems to changing climate conditionsData assembly (including systems and the analytical framework), analysis and synthesis

Documentation of future vulnerability of livestock systems globally to target interventions

INRA-led consortium of 27 partners

1.2 Breeding strategies for future climatic conditions1.3 Species and genetic diversity for climate change

Theme 2, Adaptation Pathways for Current Climate RiskActivity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners

2.1 Managing climate risk and building resilient livelihoodsWorkshops, syntheses, report writing Documentation of how agro-pastoralists are coping with

climate risk in West and Southern Africa, and piloting options as to how they may cope with increased climate risk in the future

PIK, University of Kassel, IER (Mali), IIAM (Mozambique), IFPRI

2.2 Managing climate risk through food delivery, trade and crisis response2.3 Prediction of climate impacts, and enhanced climate services

63 • 3/21/11

ILRI Activity Plan part 2

Theme 3, Pro-Poor Climate Change MitigationActivity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners

3.1. Low-carbon agricultural development pathwaysConsultations, workshop, analysis, syntheses Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems by

country: updating the IPCC numbers IIASA, FAO

3.2 Institutional arrangements and incentives for mitigation3.3 On-farm mitigation practices and landscape implicationsWorkshop, syntheses Scoping study on carbon sequestration in livestock

systems in developing countries Under development

Theme 4, Integration for Decision MakingActivity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners

4.1 Linking knowledge with action4.2 Data and tools for analysis and planningModel development, testing and documentation Documentation for GLOBIOM-Livestock, a global

integrated assessment model with explicit treatment of livestock issues

4.3 Refining frameworks for policy analysisWriteshops, syntheses Global review of livestock issues in global change IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, FAO, PBL

64 • 3/21/11

Director: Bruce Campbell

Head of Research: Sonja Vermeulen

Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann

Program Manager: Misha Wolsgaard-Iversen

Events & Program Support Consultant: Ratih Septivita

Communications Consultant: Vanessa Meadu

CCAFS Director and Heads

Program & Comm. Support

The CCAFS Team: Who’s coordinating the effort?

65 • 3/21/11

T1: Adaptation to Progressive CC

Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis & Andy Challinor

Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji

T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate RiskTheme Leader: Jim Hansen

Science Officer: Kevin Coffey

T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation

Theme Leader: Lini WollenbergScience Officer: Michael Misiko

T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leaders: Phil Thornton, Gerry

Nelson, Patti KristjansonScience Officers: Wiebke Chaudhury, Christina Sison, Moushumi Chaudhury

The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the effort?

66 • 3/21/11

•Connect people•Reduce redundancy•Maximise creative potential•Elevate the level of CGIAR research and its outreach

Integrating across the CGIAR

•Plug into centre communications and co-brand outputs•Create a platform for fund-raising to support centres

Co-branding of CC work

How we would like to work

67 • 3/21/11

• Learn about the program on the web and through presentations• Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research

Learn and engage

• Use research products coming out of other centers• Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy• Develop ownership and feel a part of the program AND your centre

Collaborate and contribute

What Should You Do?

68 • 3/21/11

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ccafs climate change agriculture and food security

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