CCAFS: An Overview

Message 1:In the coming decades, climate change and

other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability

Annual temperature trends, 1901 a 2005. In °C per century

Temperature baselines and variability are rising

Crop suitability is changing

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Food demands will rise

In order to meet global demands, we

will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

“Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,”

relative to the full mitigation scenario.

-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

Message 2:With new challenges also come

new opportunities.

Ecosystem valuation

Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)

Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system

2006 2007 2008

Message 3:CCAFS aims to tap into those opportunities.

1. Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.

2. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.

CCAFS Objectives

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).

CCAFS: the partnership

Adapting Agriculture toClimate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk

3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis

and Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

The CCAFS Framework:Research Themes, Outputs, and Impacts

Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices

The CGIAR Research Centers

Lead center - CIAT

The Three Focus Regions

Indo-Gangetic Plains:Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal

Regional director:Pramod Aggarwal

East Africa:Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia

Regional director:James Kinyangi

West Africa:Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger

Regional director:Robert Zougmoré

REGION: West Africa

High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.

Population

The climate is characterized by a strong latitudinal rainfall gradient and dramatic fluctuations in precipitation over multi-decadal time scales. The region also suffers from widespread land degradation, particularly in the semi-arid Sudano-Sahelian zone. Water use and population growth are resulting in increasing stresses on existing water sources.

Current Climate

Due to the extreme variability in the rainfall regime, predictions for rainfall vary for the region. Nevertheless, most models agree that the Sahel will experience shorter growing periods.

Future Climate

REGION: East Africa

High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.

Population

The region exhibits strong heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-ecosystems, livelihoods, and environmental challenges. Rainfall is reasonably predictable, and temperature gradients are associated with elevation.

Current Climate

Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.

Future Climate

REGION: Indo-Gangetic Plains

“The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people, about 10% of the total human population in the region” (IPCC 2007). Because of its intensified, irrigated agricultural production systems, it is the “bread basket” of South Asia.

Population

Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the timing and strength of northeast and southwest monsoons, which supply ~80% of the region’s total annual rainfall. The area is prone to droughts (west) and flooding (east).

Current Climate

There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise. Some uncertainty exists regarding precipitation, but the general consensus that the intensity and probability of extreme events will increase. The timing of monsoons may become more variable.

Future Climate

Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:• Close the yield gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase agricultural potential• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1

oneObjective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates

Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

1.1

• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)• Agricultural knowledge transfer• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms

Adapted farming systems

1.2

• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies

• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities

Breeding strategies for climate stresses

1.3

• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation

• On-farm use of diversity to adapt

• Policies of access for benefit sharing

Species and genetic diversity

Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1

one

Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1

one>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

The Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge.

What is it?

It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.

Why is it useful?

Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1

one>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1

one>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool

The analogue tool identifies areas where the climate today is a likely analogue to the future projected climate at another location.

What is it?

The tool will facilitate on-the-ground evaluations of whether successful adaptation options in one place are transferrable to a future climatic analogue site.

Why is it useful?

Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1

one>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool

Risk Management

THE VISION

• Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency• Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term•Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.

Managing Climate Risk 2

two

Objective One:Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)

Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)

Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services

Managing Climate Risk 2

two2.1

• Designed diversification• Index-based risk transfer• Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications• Participatory action research

Building resilient livelihoods

2.2

• Manage price volatility via trade and storage

• Improved early warning systems

• Coordin. platform

• Food safety nets

• Post-crisis recovery

Food delivery, trade, and crisis response

2.3

info.• Historical data reconstruction• Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions• Monitor & forecast crops, rangelands, P&D

services• Instit. arrangements• Comm. processes• Capacity bldg for providers

Climate information and services

Managing Climate Risk 2

two>> Spotlight on: Participatory action research

A network of participatory pilot demonstrations will identify, develop and evaluate promising risk management interventions on: (a) designed diversification, (b) index-based financial risk transfer, and (c) adaptive management.

What is it?

Research and informed outside intervention can improve livelihoods where external change: (a) is too rapid for trial-and-error strategies to respond to; (b) have undermined traditional livelihood strategies; or (c) has created new opportunities that require technical support or market development.

Why is it useful?

Managing Climate Risk 2

two>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance

• Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance• Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk

What CCAFS outputs?

Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index avoids the high cost of verifying losses and overcomes the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection and. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks.

Why is it useful?

In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.

Managing Climate Risk 2

two>> Spotlight on: Improved crop forecasts

• Improved crop forecast lead time & accuracy• Analysis of impact of early response on logistical and livelihood costs• Analysis of impact of early warning on price volatility and trade

What CCAFS outputs?

Rural communities do not need to divest productive assets before assistance arrives. Stabilized supplies and prices reduce counterproductive coping strategies.

Why is it useful?

Mitigation

CHALLENGES

Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes

Long-term: Conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation

Pro-Poor CC Mitigation 3

threeObjective One:

Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways

Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements

Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications

3.1

• Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation• Assess impacts of current policies• Dvlp coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt

Low-carbon development pathways

3.2

• Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer)

• Assess potential non-market options

• Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women

Incentives and instit. arrangements

3.3

• Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms

• Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV.

• Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles.

On-farm mitigation options

Pro-Poor CC Mitigation 3

three

Pro-Poor CC Mitigation 3

three>> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural mitigation

Two workshops will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, at the farm and landscape level.

What CCAFS outputs?

Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices will facilitate interventions on the ground.

Why is it useful?

Pro-Poor CC Mitigation 3

three

>> Spotlight on: Spotting mitigation potential

We are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating different mitigation strategies scenarios while maintaining food supply.

What CCAFS outputs?

Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.

Why is it useful?

IntegrationVISION

•Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context • Synthesize lessons learned•Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers•Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions•Build partners’ capacity

4

four

T1: Pro-

gressive Adapta-

tion T2: Risk Management

T3: Pro-poor Mitigation

Rural Livelihoods Environment

Food Security

Integration for

Decision Making

Integration for Decision Making 4

fourObjective One: Linking knowledge with action

Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning

Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis

4.1

• Regional scenarios• Vulnerability assessments• Approaches to decision making informed by good science• Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups

Linking knowledge with action

4.2

• Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts

• Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development

• Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders

Data and tools for analysis and planning

4.3

• Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions

• Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies

• Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups

Frameworks for policy analysis

Integration for Decision Making 4

four

Integration for Decision Making 4

four>> Mainstream delivery of outputs and outcomes

For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results

• National agricultural research institutes• National meteorological services• Regional/int’l climate and agricultural research institutes

For non-research partners to demand and use data, tools, and results

• Governments• Civil society, NGOs, and development organizations• Private sector• Farmers’associations

Integration for Decision Making 4

four>> Spotlight on:

A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe

What is it?

To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies

Why is it useful?

™

Available at http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/

4 four

Select climate model

(6 options or their avg)

Select emissions scenario(3 options)

Select the centre year of the time slice

Select location Select the number of years of data desired™

Integration for Decision Making

Integration for Decision Making 4

four>> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey

A survey conducted in the three focus regions at household and village focus group levels.

What is it?

Understanding rural communities’ practices and behaviors and their mediating environment

Why is it useful?

One of the sites in Western Kenya

Capacity Enhancement

People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.

A Definition

• Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions• CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action

The CCAFS Vision

CCAFSValues

In developing countries, women farmers account for more than 60% of the rural labor force and produce up to 80% of local food.

They are also 60% of the world’s hungry population.

Social Differentiation CCAFSValues

Social DifferentiationCCAFSValues

• Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond• 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation• Early work in gender studies, opportunities for women scientists

Global Policy Impact

The Commission will identify necessary policy changes and actions to enable global sustainable , climate-proof agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction.

The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations.

Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)

CCAFS Governance Structure

CCAFS Start-Up

• Centers begin to adjust their CRP7 funded research agendas towards the broader CCAFS strategy, with support from CCAFS-led activities and through CCAFS established partnerships. • Low-hanging fruit inter-centre collaborations.

2011 as a transition year

• Centers fully aligned with CCAFS, and contributing to multi-center, multi-partner programs of work. • Budget assigned strategically.

2012 and beyond

What you should do?

• Learn about the program on the web and through presentations• Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research

Learn and engage

• Use research products coming out of other centers• Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy• Develop ownership and feel a part of the program

Collaborate and contribute

The CCAFS Team:Who’s coordinating the effort?

Director: Bruce CampbellHead of Research: Sonja VermeulenHead of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann

Program Manager: Misha Wolsgaard-IversenEvents & Program Support Consultant: Ratih SeptivitaCommunications Consultant: Vanessa Meadu

CCAFS Director and Heads

Program & Comm. Support

The CCAFS Team:Who’s leading the research?

T1: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis , CIAT; and Andy Challinor, Univ. of LeedsScience Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji

T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme Leader: Jim Hansen

Science Officer: Kevin Coffey

T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Theme Leader: Lini Wollenberg

Science Officer: Michael Misiko

T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leader: Phil Thornton

Science Officer: Wiebke Chaudhury

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