cebit spatial@gov 2012 - air commodore mark ashwell (retired), managing partner, mla consultancy...
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Mark Ashwell
Trends in Intelligence – Some Thoughts
1960 -70 National 2011 Commercial
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INSTABILITY
WICKED PROBLEMS
GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE
INTELLIGENCE PROCESSES
MULTI INT FUSION
ACTIVITY BASED INTELLIGENCE
1970
Corona
2000
SCOPE
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CHALLENGES OF
INSTABILITY
Inter State Warfare
Intra State Warfare
Insurgency
Terrorism
Criminality (Drugs - Arms )
Poverty & Disease
Ethnic and Religious Tension
Challenge for Resources
Probable Poppy fields Kandahar Afghanistan
Probable Poppy
Somali Piracy
Irene SL
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INFORMATIVE TEXTS
Kaplan – The Coming Anarchy
Huntington – The Clash Of Civilizations
Van Krefeld – The Transformation of War
Barnett - The Pentagon’s New Plan
Krulak – The 3 Block War
Smith – The Utility of Force
(Wars Amongst the People)
Friedman - Hot, Flat and Crowded
Kilcullen – The Accidental Guerrilla
Kahneman- Thinking Fast and Slow
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CHALLENGES OF
INSTABILITY
Inter State Warfare
Intra State Warfare
Insurgency
Terrorism
Criminality (Drugs - Arms )
Poverty & Disease
Ethnic and Religious Tension
Challenge for Resources
WICKED PROBLEMSProbable Poppy fields Kandahar Afghanistan
Probable Poppy
Somali Piracy
Irene SL
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WHAT IS WICKEDProfessor Keith Grint – Wicked Problems and Clumsy Solutions
Critical (Crisis) Problem – Command – Provide Answers
Tame Problem - Management – Process Solutions
Wicked Problem – Leadership – Questions (Understanding and Integration)
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RECENT LESSONS
Understanding the Human Terrain -
(Kilcullen)
Strategies for Iraq and Afghanistan
Flynn – articulated what a many had
appreciated.
Changes in
Intelligence
Processes
1. Move from need to know to responsibility to
provide
2. Integration of Collection and Analysis
3. Collaboration between Scientists, Analysts and
Operators to exploit applications. (J2 – J3 – J6)
4. Fusion and exploitation of multi intelligence.
(GEOINT Platform)
5. Commercial Impact. (process to problem
solving)
6. Exploitation of web based processes.
(NETWORKS)
7. Analysis synthesizing and exploiting big data.
(New Assurance Models)
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Early Imagery Exploitation
OPEN CLASSIFIED
Corona
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GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE
Geospatial Intelligence consists of imagery, imagery intelligence, and geospatial
information.
The term "geospatial intelligence" means the exploitation and analysis of imagery
and geospatial information to describe, assess, and visually depict physical features
and geographically referenced activities on the earth.
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GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE
Director Leticia Long – GEOINT 2010
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Imagery Exploitation Today
OPEN
Measure
Augmented Reality
Measure
Network Enabled
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Commercial - Analysis
2,171 Ships in 9 minutes 01
seconds
Detection Rate: 241
Ships/Minute
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13
Analysts Without BordersCommercial - Analysis
"We can witness in near real-time and put all parties on notice that
if they commit war crimes, we will all be watching, and pressuring
policymakers to take action.“
George Clooney
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Decision Superiority Cycle
Observe
Orientate
Decide
Act
Knowledge
Data
UnderstandInformation
What is
Changing
What has
Changed
MEASURE
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GEOINT
SIGINT MASINT
HUMINT
EVOLVING INTELLIGENCE MODEL
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Multi Intelligence Fusion
• Joint Inter-Agency Task Force (JIATF)
• Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC)
• Joint Narcotics Analysis Centre (JNAC)
• Counter IED Defeat Organization (CIEDDO)
• Defence Intelligence Operations Coordination Centre (DIOCC)
• Defence Geospatial Intelligence Fusion Centre (DGIFC)
• Integrated Analytical Environment (NGA)
– Integrated Working Groups
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OSINT OSINF
GEOINT
SIGINT MASINT
HUMINT
Information Assurance
Counter Intelligence
OPEN SOURCE – BIG DATA
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• McKinsey
Big DataLarge Pools of data that can be
captured, communicated,
aggregated, stored and analyzed
“Big Data” refers to datasets whose
size is beyond the ability of typical software
tools to capture, store manage and analyze
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Big Data Trends€ 250 Billion
Potential annual value to Europe’s
Public sector
60%
potential increase in retailers
operating margins
£600 Billion
potential annual
consumer surplus from using personal
location data globally
140 -190,000
More deep analytical
talent positions (US)
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Integration/Aggregation
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Problem Solving Teams
All Source
(Problem Solving)
Analyst
Information
(Data Mining)
Specialist
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SUMMARY1. Move from need to know to responsibility
to provide.
2.Integration of Collection and Analysis
3.Collaboration between Scientists, Analysts
and Operators to exploit applications
4.Fusion and exploitation of multi intelligence.
(GEOINT Platform)
5.Commercial Impacts. (process to problem solving)
6.Exploitation of web based processes. (NETWORKS)
7.Analysis, synthesis and exploitation of big data.
(New Assurance Models)
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INTEGRATION1. Complete (imperfect thing) by the
addition of parts into a whole.
2.Combination of diverse elements.
AGGREGATION
1.Collected into one body (unite)
2.Sum total assemblage