Celinda LakeWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

American Association of School Administrators

July 17th, 2012

An overview of recent public opinion data on the 2012 election and education

2

Landscape of the Presidential Election

• Recent polling has shown that the race is tight, but Obama holds slight leads in traditional swing states like Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, produced in part by defining Romney on the economy.

• The race is polarized by gender, age, and race.

• While interest in the election is down from 2008, it is higher than in every other election since 1992.

• In the last 20 years, only the hyper-polarized election of 2004 has featured fewer swing voters at this point in the campaign, largely due to a motivated Republican base determined to defeat President Obama.

• Obama has outspent Romney thus far, and negative ads attacking Romney’s business records appear to have had an impact; however Romney has significantly closed the gap, outraising Obama in May and June.

3

Education and the Election

• Voters generally say that education is an important priority, though it falls behind first-tier issues like jobs and the economy.

• Education is significantly more important than in 2010, due in part to state budget cuts.

• Education is also a strong component of an economic plan.

• Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters like women, minorities, and Millennials are the most likely to value education as a voting issue.

4

Education and the Election (continued)

•Voters in swing states, especially those with a postgraduate degree, say improving education is vital to getting America’s economy back on track.

•More than one in three Americans say the cost of a college education is an extremely important economic issue, rating it higher than much-talked-about issues like home foreclosures, economic inequality, and government regulations.

•For blue collar and Latino voters, it’s important to also talk about K-12 and post-high school job training.

•A clear majority of Americans say President Obama would do a better job than Mitt Romney on the cost of a college education (54% to 39%) and improving education in general (53% to 27%).

5

Education Priorities

• When given a choice, voters are more likely to prefer that education be handled on a local level, but they see a role today for everyone.

• Although voters express low confidence in public schools, they rate their local schools much higher than schools nationwide.

• Votes are more likely to say it is very important for their state government to focus on education than the federal government, especially whites and independents.

• Voters hold strong positive associations with political candidates who make education a top priority, identifying them as “concerned about the future” and “in touch with average families.”

6

Education Priorities (continued)

• The most politically popular messages on education focus on using tax credits to make education more affordable.

• Quality teachers and reduced class sizes are also important. Merit pay for teachers and public funding for charter or private schools are the least popular.

• Education is the top priority to juxtapose against tax breaks for the wealthy.

• Framing cuts as the wrong priorities and choices rather than just “belt-tightening” is key.

Current Electoral Environment

With less than four months until Election Day, Obama and Romney are in a tight race.

8

The latest polling gives Obama a narrow lead over Romney.

From Real Clear Politics.

9

The electorate is highly polarized, especially by age and race. Look for Obama to attack Romney on Social Security to make gains among seniors, and for Romney to focus on the unemployment rate among Millennials to cut his margins there.

Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted by telephone July 5 to 8, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

Margin

17

14

80

81

521071

5918

201

0

87

10

Voters favor Obama by 10 points when it comes to who better understands their economic problems, while giving Romney a slight edge on the economy in general. Key constituencies like women and middle-income voters worry about what kind of job Romney will do.

Who do you think better understands the economic

problems people are having?Who do you trust to do a

better job on the economy?

Group Obama Romney Obama Romney

Overall 50 40 44 49

Men 46 45 42 54

Women 53 35 46 44

Independents 44 42 36 53

18-39 55 32 49 45

40-64 51 41 44 50

65+ 38 53 34 56

<50k 50 39 44 47

50k-100k 53 36 47 45

100k+ 51 44 43 53

Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy? Regardless of who you support, who do you think better understands the economy problems people in this country are having?Washington Post/ABC News poll.

Recent movement across swing states has been a mixed bag. In Ohio, Obama improved his margin by seven points, while shifts in Florida and Pennsylvania were within the margin of error. Roughly one in ten voters remains undecided in each of these states.

11

Florida Ohio Pennsylvania

+4+1 +9 +6

From Quinnipiac University polls released June 27th 2012 and May 3rd 2012. June polls - 1,200 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,237 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent; 1,252 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. May polls 1,169 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%; 1,130 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%, 1,168 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.

Presidential Ballot among Registered Voters in Selected Swing States

+2 +8

12

While interest in the election is down from four years ago, it equals or surpasses the interest from every election since 1992.

Based on Pew Research Center study: “GOP Holds Early Turnout Edge, But Little Enthusiasm for Romney.” Released June 21st 2012. Based on telephone interviews conducted June 7-17, 2012 among a national sample of 2,013 adults in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Margin of error is +/- 2.5%.

13

Only in the hyper-polarized 2004 election has there been fewer swing voters at this point in the campaign.

May 1992

July 1996

June 2000

June 2004

June 2008

June 2012

Certain Democratic 34 39 33 39 38 40

Certain Republican 35 34 35 40 29 38

Swing Voters 31 27 32 21 33 21

Based on Pew Research Center study: “GOP Holds Early Turnout Edge, But Little Enthusiasm for Romney.” Released June 21st 2012. Based on telephone interviews conducted June 7-17, 2012 among a national sample of 2,013 adults in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Margin of error is +/- 2.5%.

Certain voters are those who back Romney or Obama and say there is no chance they will support the other. Swing voters are undecided, only lean toward a candidate or say there is still a chance they will support the other.

14

Republican super PACs have helped Romney stay financially competitive in key swing states. Between Romney’s improved fundraising ($106 million in June) and spending from outside groups, it is possible that Obama will be the first Presidential incumbent to be outspent.

“President Obama’s massive swing state spending edge” – Chris Cillizza, Washington Post, July 9th 2012

“The second most important chart of the 2012 election (Hint: $$$)” – Aaron Blake, Washington Post, July 9th 2012

15

More than eight in ten swing state voters have seen campaign ads, but they are no more likely than non swing state voters to have been contacted by a campaign or participated themselves.

Results for voters in 2012 Election swing states are based on telephone interviews conducted June 22-29, 2012, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,200 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

16

Ads attacking Romney’s business record appear to be having some traction. Swing state voters who have seen ads on Romney’s business background are more likely to say it gave them a negative impression (33%) than a positive one (18%).

NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted June 20th-June 24th, 2012. Poll conducted by telephone interviews among 1,000 adults, including 250 cell phone only respondents.

17

The ads could be tapping into broader public concerns on economic fairness and the disappearing middle class. Although a vast majority says it makes no difference, approximately one in five independents say Romney’s wealth makes it less likely that they would vote for him.

“Mitt Romney’s wealth costs him with 1 in 5 voters.” Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking survey July 9-10, 2012, with a random sample of 873 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Margin of Error +/- 4%.

Predictions about which party will control the legislative agenda next year are tricky given the competitive nature of the cycle: the generic congressional ballot remains a dead heat since the Republican lead evaporated after the midterm elections.

18

Generic congressional ballot

LRP/Tarrance Group. Battleground Poll. April 29 – May 3, 2012 N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters nationwide/ ±3.1% M.O.E.

19

As expected, there was a strong partisan split on the Supreme Court’s ruling on “Obamacare.” A plurality of independents disapproved of the decision, with one quarter remaining undecided.

Independents DemocratsRepublicans

+51

Do you approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision on the 2010 health care law?

Pew Research Center “Division, Uncertainty Over Court’s Health Care Ruling.” Released July 2nd, 2012. Based on telephone interviews conducted June 28th – July 1st 2012 among 1,006 adults. Margin of error +/- 3.6%.

Education as a National Issue

Voters are more focused on education than in 2010, but it faces tough competition to break through with the economy.

21

More than four in ten voters say education is “very important” to their vote for President this year.

How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President this year – will it be extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important?

Interviews with 1,517 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on June 18th – July 1st, 2012. The margin of error is +/-2.5%.

62 percent of non-whites say education is “very important” to their vote for President

22

Democrats, non-whites, and women are the most likely to call education important to their vote. There is a noticeable age gap as well.

Darker colors indicate intensity.

23

Voters, especially highly educated ones, recognize that improving education at all levels is essential to restoring American prosperity.

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

Voters with a post graduate degree – 49%Voters with a HS degree/less – 24%

24

Voters see a clear link between education and the economy.

What impact does a high drop-out rate have on the nation’s economy?

What impact does a high drop-out rate have on America’s ability to compete in

the global economy?

Left: What impact does a high drop out rate have on the nation’s economy?Right: What impact does a high drop out rate have on America’s ability to compete in the global economy?Lake Research Partners. June 15-23, 2010. 1000 likely voters Nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1%

25

Messaging on the link between education and America’s economic future resonates across demographics, making education a good proof point in the economic narrative.

“The global economy is here to stay and it is highly competitive. Unless we begin to better prepare and educate our high school students, the U.S. is at great risk of falling behind in the world. Right now our high school students test lower than many of our competitors, including on key subjects like math and science. If we do not address the quality of education in our high schools and prepare our youths to compete in the global economy, we will lose more American jobs and companies overseas.”

Now I am going to read you some statements some people have made for ensuring that every high school student succeeds in college, their careers, and in life. After each, please tell me whether you think it is a very convincing reason to ensure a quality HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION for every student in America, a somewhat convincing reason, a little convincing, or not at all a convincing reason.Lake Research Partners. June 15-23, 2010. 1000 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1%

26

Education ranks behind the economy, jobs, and the budget deficit as the most important issues for Congress to focus on.

Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for Congress to focus on. Please listen as I read the list and tell me which one issue you think is most important. -And what would you say is the next most important? Politico Battleground 2012 – Lake Research Partners & The Tarrance Group. Survey of 1,000 likely voters , April 29 th-May 3rd 2012.

27

Voters most likely to be impacted by the recession, like minorities, Millennials, and voters in states with the highest unemployment rates, are the most likely to say education is the most important issue for Congress to focus on.

Education is the Most Important Issue (7%)•Single men – 22%•Minority male non-college graduate – 18%•Single with children – 17%•Voters in states with unemployment above 10% - 16%•Ages 18-34 – 15%•Male under 45 – 15%•Undecided on Congressional ballot – 15% •Minority non-college graduate – 14%

Politico Battleground 2012 – Lake Research Partners & The Tarrance Group. Survey of 1,000 likely voters , April 29th-May 3rd 2012.

Education is a top priority in budget fights. Voters decisively disapprove of funding cuts.

28Pew Research Center. May 25-30, 2011. 1509 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.5%Thinking about ways to reduce the deficit and size of the national debt, please tell me if you would approve or disapprove of each of the following. First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE; OBSERVE FORM SPLITS] Would you approve or disapprove of this as a way to reduce the size of the national debt?

Would you approve or disapprove as a way to reduce size of national debt?

29

Quotes from Lake Research Partners focus groups from June & July 2012.

“I mean they are cutting like all the…like a bunch of teachers, some special

education secretary, all these amazing classes.”

- White woman, Oregon

“I say it’s not really that good in terms of education because it’s, tuition is getting like more and more and it’s

like harder for people to go to college.”

-Chinese American woman, California

“You know, a quick band aid fix for education isn’t going to work.”

-Hispanic woman, Ohio

“Yeah this is a great country that’s true, but if it doesn’t start training and

making education affordable for the young people here, it’s only to just go

down.”-African American man, Ohio

“I mean, you know you don’t fund education for now, where are you

gonna get the new ideas, where do you get the new ideas, innovations for

the future?”- Chinese American man, California

• Recent focus groups show how concerned Americans are about education.

• Voters are quick to point out rising tuition costs and cuts to local schools.

• They see education as indispensable to ensuring America remains a leader in innovation and breakthrough ideas.

30

Americans overwhelmingly say improving high schools is an urgent matter, but their confidence in President Obama to complete that task is less strong even though they believe he cares about the issue.

7377

7668

7971

7674

687274

8573

807070

6383

424345

3945

3749

44374141

4842

4835

404347

All Voters

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Under 30

30 to 39

40 to 49

50 60 64

Over 65

White

African American

Hispanic

Urban Men

Urban Women

Suburban Men

Suburban Women

Rural Men

Rural Women

Extremely/Very UrgentExtremely Urgent

5480

5130

7153

5251

5447

8082

5863

5055

4044

2139

149

231617

2228

1448

322523

1723

1321

All Voters

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Under 30

30 to 39

40 to 49

50 60 64

Over 65

White

African American

Hispanic

Urban Men

Urban Women

Suburban Men

Suburban Women

Rural Men

Rural Women

Very/Somewhat LikelyVery Likely

How urgent is it to improve high schools? How likely President Obama will get something done on public education/improving public H.S.?

Lake Research Partners. June 15-23, 2010. 1000 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1%Left: High Schools. Is it extremely urgent, very urgent, somewhat urgent, a little urgent, or not at all urgent to improve High Schools?Right: How likely do you think it is that President Obama will get something done on the issue of public education and improving public high schools?

31

More than one in three Americans say the cost of a college education is an “extremely important” economic issue, rating higher than retirement savings, foreclosures, and government regulations.

In your view, how important are each of the following economic issues facing the country today – extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at all important? Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

32

Americans are twice as likely to say they trust Obama to do a better job improving education.

Which Presidential candidate, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, do you trust to do a better job on improving education?

Kaiser Family Foundation Health tracking poll conducted May 8 th – May 14th among 1,218 adults. Margin of error +/-3%.

33

By a 15-point margin, voters think President Obama would do a better job on handling the cost of a college education than Governor Romney.

Regardless of which Presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle each of the following issues: Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Obama speaking at the University of Michigan on lowering tuition costs. January 27th, source AP/Carlos Osorio.

Education Priorities

Voters say education is an important issue when voting for federal office, but are more likely to say it should be a state priority.

35

A poll of voters in nine key swing states* showed that education as a voting issue was a function of both party identification and gender. Women of all affiliations tend to view education as more important than their male counterparts.

“Education is extremely important to me in this year’s elections for President and U.S. Congress:”

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

*The poll selected three states in the “Southwest” (CO,NM,NV), three in the “Southeast” (FL, NC, VA), and three in the “Midwest” (OH, PA, WI).

Americans believe the biggest problem with the public schools in their area is a lack of funding. Recent budget cuts have really fueled this concern.

36

What do you think are the biggest problems that the public schools of your community must deal with?

Phi Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll. June 4-13, 2011. N=1002 adults. / ±3.1% M.O.E.

37

Party affiliation and gender also play a key role in determining sentiments on education funding.

Do you think increased funding for education is necessary? College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters. MOE +/- 2.3%.

Definitely Necessary Total Necessary

Among all voters:44 percent definitely necessary 78 percent think it is necessary

38

Although voters consistently rate education as a top priority, a majority believes that the federal government should leave it to states and localities. Groups favorable to Republicans, like seniors and whites, think the federal government should do less (67% and 64% respectively), while Democratic groups like African Americans (75%), Hispanics (52%), and 18-34 year olds (51%), think it should do more.

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

39

Confidence in public schools is at an all-time low, with less than one in three expressing “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in them.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 7-10, 2012, with a random sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

40

Voters rate their local schools significantly higher than schools nationwide. A plurality of swing state voters (45%) says schools nationwide are just adequate.

Local Schools Schools Nationwide

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

41

Americans are much more likely to say their state government should address education than the federal government. Democrats and people of color see the least difference.

Extremely important for ____ to address education.

Governor/State Legislature

President/ Congress Gap

Overall 69 49 20Men 65 45 20Women 73 53 20Whites 65 42 23African Americans 88 79 9Hispanics 83 71 12Democrats 79 68 11Independents 71 46 25Republicans 53 29 24

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

42

Voters cite parents and teachers as the most important groups for improving education.

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

43

Swing state voters are much more likely to associate positive traits with pro-education candidates than negative traits.

“I strongly or somewhat associate this phrase with a candidate who puts a top priority on education…”

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

44

Candidates looking to get the most benefit out of education as a voting issue should focus on offering tax breaks to afford a college education, forgiving student loan debt for teachers, nurses, and members of the armed forces, and on increasing the number of Americans with a college degree.

Likelihood of supporting a candidate with this position More Likely Less Likely

Allowing employers to offer tuition assistance to employees tax free 82 7Increase the amount that families can contribute to tax-free college savings account 77 8Making American be the world leader again in the proportion of people with a post-secondary degree or credential

75 9

Forgive student loan debt for teachers, nurses, and members of the armed forces who work in the field for 10 years or more after graduating from college

70 19

Increasing the proportion of young people who receive a post-secondary degree or credential from 42% today to 55% by 2025

70 13

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

45

Federal aid to help states retain and hire teachers leads the list of second-tier issues, followed closely by a description of the DREAM Act and doubling funding for Pell grants.

Likelihood of supporting a candidate with this position More Likely Less Likely

Provide federal funds to help states retain elementary and secondary school teachers and hire new ones 68 20Allowing children of undocumented immigrants who have grown up in American to attain legal residency status if they complete college or serve in the military

65 25

Limit payments on college loans to no more than 10% of a person’s income 64 21Double funding for Pell grants, which are college tuition grants given by the federal government 63 22Base funding for post-secondary education in part on momentum toward completion and total completion rates, not solely on enrollment

59 17

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

46

Although they are often promoted by education reformers, merit pay for teachers and public funding for charter or private schools are the lowest-testing messages.

Likelihood of supporting a candidate with this position More Likely Less Likely

Allow people who have professional experience in math or science teach in public schools even if they do not have degrees in education

57 31

Base teachers’ salaries partially upon student performance 51 36Make it easier for charter schools to open and have no limit on the number of charter schools that can open in a school district

41 38

Give federal government grants to parents to help them pay for their children to attend private schools, religious schools, or for home schooling

40 51

College Board Swing State Education Survey – Hart Research/North Star Opinion Research. The survey was conducted from March 15th-March 20th 2012 and included interviews with 1,839 registered voters in nine swing states. MOE +/- 2.3%.

Celinda Lakeclake@lakeresearch.com

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066