Rick Johnson Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

Community Action Partnership

Management and Leadership Training Conference

Context

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Two-thirds of voters believe that things are off on the wrong track.

Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Battleground. November 5-9, 2011. 1001 likely voters nationwide.

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And the future is bleak. Voters overwhelmingly believe that the next generation will not be better off economically than the current generation.

Do you believe that the next generation will be better off economically than the current generation?

Battleground. November 5-9, 2011. 1001 likely voters nationwide.

The economy and jobs clearly outweigh the host of other issues voters want Congress to focus on. Spending and the deficit comes in a distant second.

Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important for Congress to focus on. Please listen as I read the list and tell me which one issue you think is most important.

39%

5Battleground. November 5-9, 2011. 1001 likely voters nationwide.

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While voters overwhelmingly approve of Obama as a person, they disapprove of his job performance.

Now, turning back to President Barack Obama… Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him?How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

Obama Personal Approval

Obama Job Approval

Battleground. November 5-9, 2011. 1001 likely voters nationwide.

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Voters tend to disapprove of Congress overall, and are split on their own Member of Congress’s performance. A majority disapprove of both Congress AND their own Member.

Thinking again about Congress. How would you rate the job Congress is doing? Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing? Thinking specifically about your Member of Congress, how would you rate the job your Member of Congress is doing? Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?

Congressional Job Approval

Your Member Job Approval

Congress Job Approval Comparison

Battleground. November 5-9, 2011. 1001 likely voters nationwide.

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In the generic presidential ballot, voters are split between Obama and a Republican candidate.

Now, thinking ahead to the 2012 Presidential elections… If the election for President were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for -- (ROTATE) -- the Republican candidate or President Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate?

Battleground. November 5-9, 2011. 1001 likely voters nationwide.

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Similarly, voters split the generic Congressional ballot.

Battleground. November 5-9, 2011. 1001 likely voters nationwide.

And, still thinking about the 2012 elections… If the election for CONGRESS were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for -- (ROTATE) – the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, in your Congressional district?

A plurality of Americans have negative feelings toward the Occupy Wall Street movement.

10(Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and groups and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so.)...The Occupy Wall Street movement

NBC News, Wall Street Journal. Methodology: December 7 - 11, 2011. 1,000 adults nationwide.

A solid majority of voters report that they feel positively toward poor people.

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In general, how would you rate your feelings toward poor people--very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative?

Fox News. August 7 - 9, 2011. 904 registered voters Nationwide.

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Americans would like to see the government do more for poor people.

(Next, we'd like to ask you about how much help the federal government provides to some different groups.) Do you think the government does too much, not enough, or about the right amount for...poor people?

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. September 22 - October 4, 2011. 2,410 adults nationwide.

Head Start

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Voters in Battleground Districts report that they would have serious doubts about a House incumbent who voted for the largest cuts ever for education programs, including Head Start, classroom technology and Pell Grants.

Name of House incumbent voted for the largest cuts ever for education programs, including cuts to Head Start, classroom technology and Pell Grants, jeopardizing our children’s ability to compete in the 21st century – would this raise very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about name of House incumbent?

+27

Democracy Corps. September 14-19, 2011. 1,000 likely voters in 60 most competitive Republican battleground districts nationwide.

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A plurality of voters say they support no reductions in Head Start in order to reduce the federal deficit.

I am going to read you a list of different programs that might be affected by efforts to reduce the federal budget deficit. After each one I read, please tell me whether you would support no reductions in this program, whether you would support minor reductions in this program or support major reductions in this program… Head Start, a program that helps pre-school children from disadvantaged backgrounds.

First Focus. April 13-18, 2011. 1,024 likely voters nationwide.

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Americans believe that significant cuts to education programs, including No Child Left Behind, Head Start, and subsidies for college loans, would result in fairly small savings to the federal deficit or would make little difference at all.

I’m going to mention some areas of government spending where some groups are seeking dramatic changes or complete elimination. Please tell me whether you think the action would result in savings to the federal deficit would be very large, fairly large, fairly small, or would make little difference at all… Significantly cut education programs, including No Child Left Behind, Head Start, and subsidies for college loans.

+28

Bloomberg. March 4-7, 2011. 1,001 adults nationwide.

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A majority of Americans believe it is totally or mostly unacceptable to cut funding for Head Start to help reduce the federal deficit.

Please tell me if you thing significantly cutting the funding for this program is totally acceptable, mostly acceptable, mostly unacceptable, or totally unacceptable as a way to help reduce the federal deficit… The Head Start pre-kindergarten program.

+15

NBC News/Wall Street Journal. February 24-28, 2011. 1,000 adults nationwide.

Housing

By more than two to one, the jobs situation is the economic issue that worries Americans the most. Problems in the housing market are a lower priority.

Which of the following national economic issues worries you most? The job situation, the federal budget deficit, rising prices, problems in the financial and housing markters.

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Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. November 9-14, 2011. 2001 adults nationwide.

Similarly, jobs are the top personal worry, with housing ranking lower.

Which one personal worry for you and your family is greatest right now? Would it be a worry about health care, jobs, inflation, the cost of higher education, taxes, immigration, or housing?

20

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll. November 2-5, 2011. 1000 adults nationwide.

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An overwhelming majority of voters believe that it is a very serious or serious problem that one out of every four homeowners are underwater and many responsible homeowners are struggling with high debt and cannot sell or move.

As a result of the housing bust, one out of every four homeowners is underwater, owning more on their mortgages than their homes are even worth. Many responsible homeowners are now struggling with high debt and cannot sell or move. Is this a very serious problem, a serious problem, not a very serious problem, or not a problem at all.

+86

Democracy Corps. October 15-18, 2011. 1,000 likely voters nationwide.

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Since the economic downturn began, about one in fourteen Americans report losing housing because they were not able to pay their rent or mortgage.

Since the economic downturn began, was there ever a time when you… have lost your housing because you were not able to pay your rent or mortgage?

Time. September 6-9, 2011. 1000 adults nationwide.

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A majority of Americans believe they are currently paying about as much as they can afford for housing.

Do you think what you are currently paying for housing is more than you can afford, about as much as you can afford, or could you afford more if you wanted?

CBS News/New York Times. June 24-28, 2011. 979 adults nationwide.

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There is a desire for the government to do more to help the housing market improve.

In general, do you think the government should be doing more to help the housing market improve, should it be doing less, or is the government doing the right amount?

CBS News/New York Times. June 24-28, 2011. 979 adults nationwide.

Health Insurance

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Lower income Americans and the uninsured have a much more difficult time affording health care services.

Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll conducted December 1-6, 2010.

Problems paying medical bills Putting off needed care because of cost

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A majority of Americans are unwilling to pay higher taxes or insurance premiums to cover the uninsured—the group most Americans feel is the primary beneficiary of the ACA.

Would you be willing to pay more — either in higher health insurance premiums or higher taxes — in order to increase the number of Americans who have health insurance, or not?

Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll , November 2009.

Willingness to Pay More to Reduce Number of Uninsured

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Overview of Message Development

Message Development

• Advocates are highly informed about their issues and have many things they want to say. But trying to tell voters everything about the issue means they will remember nothing.

• Message discipline is critical. Focus on no more than three primary messages that reinforce an overall theme.

• An effective message, consistently delivered, creates in voters a sense that the desired response to the issue is consistent with their own beliefs and values while contrasting the position with the opponent’s.

• Trying to persuade voters without testing messages is like getting in a car in New York City and driving to Los Angeles without a map. In both cases, you are guessing about the best way to accomplish your task and guessing rarely means success.

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Message Development

• Simply put, polling answers the questions: who you go talk to, when you go talk to them, and what you go tell them.

• But any message not grounded in your own core values and beliefs will not be believable and will be impossible for you and the campaign to communicate persuasively.

• Research allows you to identify the key audiences needed to achieve your goals. Understanding your audience maximizes your organization’s resources and allows for the most efficient delivery of your message to the people that matter the most.

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Your Issue Your Opponent

What We Say About Us

What We Say About Them

What They Say About Us

Your Issue

Your Opponent

What They Say About

Themselves

The Tully Message Box – Framing information, knowing the landscape

Writing Messages

• Who is your audience?

• What does your organization believe/objective of the issue campaign?

• Tone

• Length

• Education level/vocabulary

In issue polling, core messages inform communications strategies

• Stewardship: My faith calls for people to be the stewards of God’s creation. We should be willing to conduct our lives and business practices in such a manner that protects the earth and this includes protecting our rivers and waters.

• Future: Clean water and clean rivers and lakes are critical to our communities’ future, our nation’s future, and our quality of life and what we should pass on to our children. We need to take action now to improve water quality to ensure all our futures.

• Economic fairness: Rivers and their water are public resources that belong to everybody. Every American should have safe drinking water, not just those that can afford bottled water. Our government officials should stand up to polluters and developers and prevent rivers and lakes from being polluted or used up.

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Working with a message triangle

Key Message Point Proof Point—where possible, incorporate throughout your message triangle such message enhancers as specific examples; meaningful statistics; analogies, metaphors & similes; the “Three Cs”” (colorful words, clichés, contemporary references); one-liners, personal experience; quotes from experts—or your opposition

Proof Point

Proof Point

Subsidiary bullet

Subsidiary bullet

Proof Point

MAIN MESSAGE

(TYPICALLY UNSTATED)

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Working with a message triangle

Rick Johnsonrjohnson@lakeresearch.com

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066