centre for applied climate sciences, university of ... · the total coffee area. vietnam is the...
TRANSCRIPT
Introduction
Results
Acknowledgements
Conclusions
Yen Pham1, Kathryn Reardon-Smith1, Shahbaz Mushtaq1, Julius Kotir2
1 Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, QLD 4350, Australia2 The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, QLD 4350, Australia
Fig.1. Causal loop diagram of the impacts of drought on coffee production in Dak Lak Province
Methods
• A causal loop diagram (CLD) was used as a tool todepict the interactions between key factors andfeedback mechanisms in the system.
• A series of interviews with60 experts and farmersand literature review wereemployed to identify theproblems related to watershortages for coffeeproduction in Dak Lakprovince, a key coffee-growing region of Vietnam,accounting for over 30% ofthe total coffee area.
Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffeeproducer with a share of 17% of global output.
Coffee production accounts for 10% of nationalagricultural export turnover and supports thelivelihoods of 0.5 million smallholder farmers.
Coffee cultivation has faced serious irrigation-relatedchallenges, particularly during drought periods.
Using a system dynamics approach, this study aimsto examine the interrelationships and feedbacksamong factors that drive drought impacts on coffeeproduction in Vietnam.
• An interruption in coffee production during drought
is an outcome of complex interactions between
climate system (e.g. rainfall variability) and human
systems (e.g. rising water demand driven by
uncontrollable coffee expansion and over-irrigation).
Other influential factors include deforestation and
growing water demands underpinned by population
growth (Fig. 1).
• Coffee production is intensified owing to irrigation
through reinforcing feedback loops but interrupted
by the limits of water availability through balancing
loops. The balancing phase will likely dominate in
the absence of proper intervention strategies.
• Several systems archetypes are identified:
– Fixes that fail: The side-effects of quick fixes to
improve coffee production through Robusta coffee
monocultures and migration policy (Fig. 2).
– Limits to growth: Coffee areas currently exceed the
approved plan for sustainable coffee development.
However, some factors limit this expansion,
including total land area/total water supply (Fig. 3).
– Tragedy of the commons: Over-exploitation of
groundwater leads to reduced irrigation supply for
all farmers (Fig. 4).
Fig.2. Fixes that fail
Fig.3. Limits to growth
• Although groundwater reserves may be replenished during the rainy season, it may not be
sufficient for coffee irrigation in the following dry season. Our hypothesis indicated that the
unintended consequences of migration policy and inefficient agricultural practices (e.g. over-
production and over-irrigation) along with changing climate conditions are most likely to disrupt
coffee cultivation in Dak Lak.
• Suggested interventions: Raising awareness and promoting technologies on water-saving
irrigation, explicitly zoning coffee-growing areas, converting Robusta monocultures to diversified
cropping systems, and controlling deforestation coupled with reforestation and afforestation.
• Next steps: A simulation model based on this CLD is in progress to quantify drought impacts and
design and test potential intervention scenarios for sustainable coffee development.
This research is funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and NuclearSafety through the International Climate Initiative and the University of Southern Queensland.
Further informationYen Pham, University of Southern Queensland
(+61) 451 441 512, [email protected]
Fig.4. Tragedy of the commons
Migration
Labour availability
Low coffee
production
Water availablity
-+
B
R1
Population growth
Deforestation-
-
+
+R2
+
Water demand+
-+
Irrigation
Coffee yield
Available water
+
R -
+
B2
Coffee areaTotal water supply
++
Cultivable land
-
+
Total land area+
Farm revenues
+
+
B1
Groundwater
extraction of farmer A
Groundwater
extraction of farmer B
Groundwater
resources in the region
Total groundwater
extracted
Groundwater available
for each farmer
-
+ +
+
R1 B1 B2 R2
Coffee yield of
farmer ACoffee yield of
farmer B+ +
Coffee expansion of
farmer ACoffee expansion of
farmer B
+ +
+ +
+ +
Coffee
monocroppingLow coffee yield
Vulnerability to climate
and market risks
+
-
Climate variability
+
+
Price volatility
Farm income
-
-
+
B
R
Forest area
Water availability
Coffee yieldFarm income
Climate change
Rainfall variability
+
Land conversion to
crop expansion
Crop expansion
+
Production costs
-
R1
R2
R5
R6
R8
R3B1
B2
Irrigation++
Surface water
resources
Groundwater
storage
Groundwater
exploitation
-
-
-
+
+
+
Groundwater
recharge
-
+
+
Greenhouse gas
emission
-
+
Migration
Population growth
Residential land
areas
+
-+
+
Domestic water
use +
-
+
+
+
Investment in water
saving irrigation
+
Financial
constraints
-
-
Farmer awarenessFeasibility of
technologies
+
Evapotranspiration
Shading-
Drought
+
+
B3
B4
B5
+
+
Labour availability
+ +
+Off-farm
livelihoods
-
-
Coffee price
+
R4
Coffee quality
+
+
+
Temperature rise
+
+
-
R7
B6
B8
B9 B10
B7
B11
R9
-
-
Intercropping
-
+
B12
B13
-
Coffee supply+
-
Non-cultivation
production
Non-irrigation
water use
+
+
-
R10
Outputs ofnon-cultivation
production+ +
R11
Food availability
+
+
R12
Coffee demand
+
+
+
B14