chapter 11 principles of corporate finance tenth edition investment, strategy, and economic rents...
TRANSCRIPT
Chapter 11Principles of
Corporate FinanceTenth Edition
Investment, Strategy, and
Economic Rents
Slides by
Matthew Will
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
11-2
Topics Covered
Look First To Market ValuesEconomic Rents and Competitive
AdvantageExample - Marvin Enterprises
11-3
Market Values
Smart investment decisions make MORE money than smart financing decisions
Smart investments are worth more than they cost:
– they have positive NPVs
Firms calculate project NPVs by discounting forecast cash flows, but . . .
11-4
Market Values
Projects may appear to have positive NPVs because of forecasting errors
e.g. some acquisitions result from errors in a DCF analysis
Positive NPVs stem from a comparative advantage
Strategic decision-making identifies this comparative advantage; it does not identify growth areas
11-5
Market Values
Don’t make investment decisions on the basis of errors in your DCF analysis.
Start with the market price of the asset and ask whether it is worth more to you than to others.
11-6
Market Values
Don’t assume that other firms will watch passively.
Ask --How long a lead do I have over my rivals? What will happen to prices when that lead disappears
In the meantime how will rivals react to my move? Will they cut prices or imitate my product?
11-7
Department Store Rents
[assumes price of property appreciates by 3% a year]
Rental yield = 10 - 3 = 7%
000,000,1$10.1
1348...
10.1
8
10.1
8100
102
NPV
000,000,1$10.1
13.98
10.1
87.88...
10.1
21.78
10.1
781092
NPV
11-8
Department Store Rents
11-9
EXAMPLE: KING SOLOMON’S MINE
Investment = $400 million
Life = 10 years
Production = .1 million oz. a year
Production cost = $480 per oz.
Current gold price = $800 per oz.
Discount rate = 10%
Using Market Values
11-10
EXAMPLE: KING SOLOMON’S MINE - continued
If the gold price is forecasted to rise by 5% p.a.:
But if gold is fairly priced, you do not need to forecast future gold prices:
NPV = -investment + PV revenues - PV costs
Using Market Values
millionNPV 70$.....10.1
)480882(10.
10.1
)480840(10.400
2
milliont
t105$
10.1
4801.800400
10
1
11-11
Do Projects Have Positive NPVs?
Rents = profits that more than cover the cost of capital
NPV = PV (rents)
Rents come only when you have a better product, lower costs or some other competitive edge
Sooner or later competition is likely to eliminate rents
11-12
Competitive Advantage
Proposal to manufacture specialty chemicals
Raw materials were commodity chemicals imported from Europe
Finished product was exported to Europe
High early profits, but . . .
. . . what happens when competitors enter?
11-13
Polyzone Production NPV
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3-10
Investment 100Production, Millions of pounds per year 0 0 40 80Spread, dollars per pound 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2Net revenues 0 0 48 96Production costs 0 0 30 30Transport 0 0 4 8Other costs 0 20 20 20Cash flow -100 -20 -6 38
NPV (at r=8%) = $63.6 million
U.S. Company (figures in millions)
11-14
Polyzone Production NPV
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3-10
Investment 100Production, Millions of pounds per year 0 0 40 80Spread, dollars per pound 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95Net revenues 0 0 38 76Production costs 0 0 30 30Transport 0 0 0 0Other costs 0 20 20 20Cash flow -100 -20 -12 26
NPV (at r=8%) = 0
European Company (figures in millions)
11-15
Polyzone Production NPV
0 1 2 3 4 5 - 10Investment 100Production, Millions of pounds per year 0 0 40 80 80 80Spread, dollars per pound 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.95Net revenues 0 0 48 96 88 76Production costs 0 0 30 30 30 30Transport 0 0 4 8 8 8Other costs 0 20 20 20 20 20
Cash flow -100 -20 -6 38 30 18NPV (at r= 8%)= -9.8
Year
U.S. Company w/ European Competition (figures in millions)
11-16
Marvin Enterprises
Capacity, Millions of Units
Technology Industry MarvinCapital Cost per
Unit ($)Manufacturing
Cost per Unit ($)Salvage Value per
Unit ($)
First generation (2020) 120 _ 17.5 5.5 2.5
Second generation (2028) 120 24 17.5 3.5 2.5
11-17
Marvin Enterprises
Demand = 80 (10 - Price)
Price = 10 x quantity/80
Demand for Garbage Blasters
11-18
Marvin Enterprises
Value of Garbage Blaster Investment
million
million
million
t
t
227$72299benefit Net
72$2.1
124plant existingPV Change
299$
25.1
10
2.1
3610100Plant New NPV
11-19
Marvin Enterprises
VALUE OF CURRENT BUSINESS: VALUE
At price of $7 PV = 24 x 3.5/.20 420
WINDFALL LOSS:
Since price falls to $5 after 5 years,
Loss = - 24 x (2 / .20) x (1 / 1.20)5 - 96
VALUE OF NEW INVESTMENT:
Rent gained on new investment = 100 x 1 for 5 years = 299
Rent lost on old investment = - 24 x 1 for 5 years = - 72
227 227
TOTAL VALUE: 551
CURRENT MARKET PRICE: 460
11-20
Marvin Enterprises
Alternative Expansion Plans
11-21
Web Resources
Click to access web sitesClick to access web sites
Internet connection requiredInternet connection required
www.thecorporatelibrary.com
www.towers.com
www.businessweek.com
www.forbes.com