chapter 5 an introduction to macroeconomics where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. which...
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Chapter 5
An Introduction to Macroeconomics
Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins.
Which of the two has the grander view?VICTOR HUGO
Macroeconomics vs. Microeconomics
• Microeconomics– Decisions of individualindividual units
• No matter how large• Example: GE’s pricing policy
• Macroeconomics– Behavior of entireentire economies
• No matter how small• Example: inflation in Monaco
– Economic aggregates: aggregate output, inflation, unemployment, …
2
Macroeconomics & Aggregation
• Aggregation– Combine many individual markets into
one overall market
• Why can we aggregate?– Composition of demand & supply
• In various markets• Important for microeconomics issues• Not important for macroeconomics issues
– During economic fluctuations, markets move up or down together
3
Macroeconomics & Microeconomics
• Macroeconomics– Assume most details
• Resource allocation & income distribution• Relatively unimportant
• Microeconomics– Ignore macroeconomics issues
– Focus – individual markets• Allocate resources• Distribute income
4
Supply & Demand in Macroeconomics
• Aggregate demand (ADAD) curve– Quantity of domestic product – demanded
– Each possible value of price level
• Aggregate supply (ASAS) curve– Quantity of domestic product – supplied
– Each possible value of price level
5
Two interpretations of a shift in the demand curve
Figure 1
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Quantity
Pric
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(a)
D
D
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Quantity
Pric
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(b)
Q0
S
S
P0
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D0
D0
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A
Supply & Demand in Macroeconomics
• Inflation– Sustained increase in price level
– Outward shift of aggregate demand curve
• Recession – period of time– Total output – declines
• Production falls• People lose jobs
– Inward shift of aggregate demand curve
7
An economy slipping into a recession
Figure 2
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Domestic Product
Pric
e Le
vel
D0
D0
Q0
S
S
P0
D2
D2
P2
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B
Supply & Demand in Macroeconomics
• Macroeconomists study– Inflation
– Recession & unemployment (Business Cycles)
– Economic growth
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Economic growth
Figure 3
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Domestic Product
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Gross Domestic Product
• Gross domestic product (GDP)– Sum: moneymoney values
– All finalfinal goods & services• Produced - domestic economy (Toyota car
produced in the US vs. Ford pick-up produced in Japan)
• Sold – organized markets (gambling in Vegas vs. gambling in Chicago)
– Specified period of time• Usually a year
11
Gross Domestic Product
• Nominal GDP– GDP in currentcurrent dollars
– Value outputs – current prices
• Real GDP– Value outputs of different years at
common prices
– GDP in constantconstant dollars
12
What Gets Counted in GDP?
• GDP - particular year– Add up money value of things
– Goods & services• Produced within the year
– Final goods & services
– Production: geographic boundaries of U.S.
– Organized markets
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Gross Domestic Product
• Final Final goods and services– Purchased by their ultimate users
• IntermediateIntermediate good - purchased– For resale
– For use in producing another good
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Gross Domestic Product
• Limitations of GDP– Not measure: nation’s economic well-being
– Includes only market activity• Housework, yard work, …
– Places no value on leisure
– Counted: “Bads” and “Goods”• Hurricane Katrina might increase GDP
– Ecological costs• Not deducted from GDP• Needed: “GreenGreen GDP”
15
The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• U.S. economy– Growth – with fluctuations
• Macroeconomic fluctuations– Business cycles
• Real GDP per capita– Ratio: real GDP divided by population
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Nominal GDP, real GDP, real GDP per capita since 1959
Figure 4
17
The growth rate of U.S. real GDP since 1870
Figure 5
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The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• Inflation– Sustained increase
– General price level
• Deflation – Sustained decrease
– General price level
19
The inflation rate in the United States since 1870
Figure 6
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The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• The Great Depression, 1929-1933– Decline in economic activity
– Rapid deflation
– Production – declined 30%
– Unemployment rate• Increased from 3% to 25%
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The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• The Great Depression, 1929-1933– Revolution in economic thought
• Before: economy corrects itself• After: decrease in aggregate demand cannot
recover by themselves (J. M. Keynes) – Monetary & fiscal policy needed
– Ended: early 1940s (due to WWII)– What caused it?
• Stock bubbles• Contractionary monetary policy• Unregulated markets 22
The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• From WWII to 1973– WWII: increased government spending
• Increased aggregate demand• Accidental fiscal policy• Price controls• Shortage: consumer goods
– 1960s – strong growth
– Vietnam war – increased spending• Inflation (5-6%) & high unemployment
– Wage & price controls by Nixon23
The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• The Great StagflationGreat Stagflation, 1973-1980– OPEC – 1973 oil prices quadrupled (1st
Oil Shock)
– Poor harvests in 1973 rose food prices
– Stagflation• Inflation rate: 12%• High unemployment (9% in 1st quarter 1975)
– Inward shift of aggregate supply
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The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• The Great StagflationGreat Stagflation, 1973-1980– Economy recovered
• Government actions• Natural economic forces
– 1979 – OPEC soaring oil prices (2nd Oil Shock)• Stagflation again• Inflation: 16%
25
The effects of an adverse supply shift
Figure 7
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0
Real GDP
Pric
e Le
vel
D
D
S0
S0
E
S1
S1
A
The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• Reaganomics and its aftermath– High inflation
– Federal Reserve• Monetary policy (Paul Volcker)
– High interest rate to fight inflation– Result: high unemployment rate (11% in 1982)
• Fiscal policy– large tax cut
– Laffer Curve
– Help recovery beginning in the winter of 1982-1983 27
The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• Reaganomics and its aftermath– Large budget deficits
– Recovery started 1982-1983
– President Bush continues Regan’s policies• Inflation• Deficit-reduction package• Spike in oil prices triggers 1990-1991
recession
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The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• Clintonomics: deficit reduction– Deficit-reduction package, 1993 & 1997
• Tax increase & spending cuts
– Large fiscal surplus
– Economy boomed (might due to globalization and computerization)
– Lower inflation
– Aggregate supply curves• Pushed outward – rapid pace, 1996 – 1998
29
The effects of a favorable supply shift
Figure 8
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0
Real GDP
Pric
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vel
D0
D0
S0
S0
D1
D1
E
S1
S1
C
S2
S2
B
The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• Tax cuts and the Bush economy– 2001 recession
• First in 10 years
– Tax cut 2001
– Budget deficit
– Burst of government spending• War on terror
– Aggregate demand – shift outward
– Federal Reserve• Lowered interest rate 31
The Economy on a Roller Coaster
• The Great RecessionGreat Recession (Dec. 2007 – now)– Output falls hard
– 10% unemployment rate
– Inflation is modest
– Triggered by subprime crisis
Problem of Macroeconomic Stabilization
• Historical record shows– US economy has not generally produced
steady growth w/o inflation
– Short-run trade-off b/w unemployment and inflation, sometimes both increase (1970s)
– Gov policy might contribute to this performance
33
Problem of Macroeconomic Stabilization
• Stabilization policy – Government programs
– Prevent or shorten recessions
– Counteract inflation, stabilize prices
Problem of Macroeconomic Stabilization
• Fight unemployment– Increase aggregate demand
• Government - Fiscal policy– Increase spending– Cut taxes
• Federal Reserve - Monetary policy– Lower interest rates
– Increase output
– Reduce unemployment
– Raise prices35
Stabilization policy to fight unemployment
Figure 9
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0
Real GDP
Pric
e Le
vel
D0
D0
S0
S0
D1
D1
E
A
Increase in output
Problem of Macroeconomic Stabilization
• Fight inflation– Decrease aggregate demand
• Government - Fiscal policy– Cut spending– Increase taxes
• Federal Reserve - Monetary policy– Increase interest rates
– Decrease inflation (decrease prices)
– Decrease output
– Increase unemployment37
Stabilization policy to fight inflation
Figure 10
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0Real GDP
Pric
e Le
vel
D0
D0S
SD2
D2
E
B
Decrease
in prices
Stabilization policy • Prewar data
– Fluctuations – unmanaged economy• Booms & recessions
– “Natural” economic reasons
• Little government intervention
• Postwar data– Economy - managed by government policy
• Successfully (60s and 90s) or unsuccessfully (70s)
– Recessions - less severe– More inflation-prone
39
Summary
• Macro vs. Micro• Macro is all about Aggregation• AD-AS curve• GDP• Business Cycles vs. Economic Growth• Brief Macroeconomic History of US• Stabilization Policy