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  • 8/8/2019 China Coal Research 3Q10

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    C

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    EFFICIENCY

    MATTERS

    - China Coal Industry

    Third Quarter 2010

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    This material is a product of the Research Department of Censere Group (Censere).

    This material is provided for information only and is not intended as a recommendation or investment strategyor an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or financial instrument. This material is not

    intended as a recommendation as to the merits of any proxy solicitation with respect to any transactionreferenced herein.

    All of the recommendations and views about the companies and markets contained in the research reportaccurately reflect the contemporaneous personal views of the research analysts. No part of our researchanalysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed by our research analysts.

    The research material does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities referred to therein.It should not be so construed, nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connectionwith, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information in our research, or on which it is based, has

    been obtained from sources that the Censere Group believes to be reliable and accurate. However, it has notbeen independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracyor completeness of any information obtained from third parties. In no circumstances should this document be

    considered as an official confirmation of a transaction to any person or entity and no undertaking is given thatthe transaction will be entered into subject to the terms and conditions set out herein or subject to any otherterms and conditions. This document and any attachments thereto are based on public information. Under nocircumstances can this report be used or considered as a commitment by Censere, any undertaking requiringthat a formal approval be given by Censere according to its prevailing internal procedures.

    The information or opinions are provided as at the date of their original publication and are subject to changewithout notice. The information and opinions provided in our research take no account of the investorsindividual circumstances and should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision.Investors should consider our research as only a single factor in making any investment decisions. Furtherinformation is available upon request. No member of the Censere Group accepts any liability whatsoever forany direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of our research or itscontents. The information contained herein is as of the date referenced above and Censere does not undertake

    any obligation to update such information. In addition, the views, opinions and all other information providedherein are indicative only and subject to change or withdrawal by Censere at any time without notice. All. Past

    performance is not indicative of future results.

    Copyright 2010 Censere Group. All rights reserved.

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    Director of the National Energy Administration demonstrate that a comprehensive restructuring is notyet finished. The numbers can be misleading, especially when they are convenient indicators forgovernment achievements.

    In 3Q10, acquisition of coal mines by companies involves various companies listed in Hong Kong,Shenzhen or Shanghai, including Dongguan Winnerway Industrial Zone, Yanzhou coal, HuadianPower, Kiu Hung Energy, DeTeam Company and Taian Lurun. The deals involving Huadian areworthy of attention. All of its acquisitions concentrated on one area. Its publicly stated intention wasto strategically cooperate with Xinwen Mining Group to develop the western zone of theShanghaimiao mining area in Inner Mongolia, where total production can exceed 10 million tonnes

    per year.

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    China Coal Industry Overview

    Coal is a major source of energy for human society. Although it has been criticized for the pollution

    that its use has caused, it was still the second most important primary energy source in 2009, as citedin Key World Energy Statistics 2010 (Energy Stat. 2010) by the International Energy Agency (IEA).In certain parts of the world, coal is still the dominant source of energy. More than 75% of energy

    production and about 70% of total energy consumption in China came from coal in 2006-2008 (Fig.1), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

    Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2010)

    I. Coal Demand

    Global Demand for Coal:

    Demand led by Asia in the last ten years

    As a result of the global financial crisis, economic activity shrank significantly in 2009. Coal, as aprimary resource supporting electricity and construction, has seen decreased demand in most regions,except in the Asia Pacific region, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2010(BP Review 2010). (Fig. 3) Demand for coal in the Asia Pacific region continued its growth (6.6% in2009). This has balanced almost all of the reduction in demand in other regions, leaving the globalcoal demand constant in 2009. Demand in North America and Europe-Eurasia 1 has decreased bydouble digit percentages (11.5% and 11.4% respectively). Though South and Central America andAfrica suffered less from the financial crisis, their coal demand also decreased by 6.1% and 3.1%.

    Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2010)

    1 Eurasia in the BP Review represents Russia and other countries in central Asia like Kazakhstan .

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    Fig.1: 2008 China Energy Composition

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    MtMtFig. 2: World Coal Consumption

    N. America (left) S. & Cent. America (left) Europe & Eurasia (left)

    Africa (left) Asia Pacific (right) Total (right)

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    Since 2001, growth in Asia Pacific coal demand has represented more than 80% of the internationalcoal demand growth. As Asia Pacific coal demand surged, on average 10% per annum (p.a.) since2003, it simultaneously led the strong growth in global coal demand, which has grown by 5%, on

    average, from 2003-2008. Thus, the Asia Pacific region can be regarded as the main driver in globalcoal consumption.

    The continental composition of coal demand has changed over the last ten years, primarily due toaccelerated development in the Asia Pacific region, even though the ranking of coal use by region hasnot changed. In 1999, Asia Pacific ranked first (46.5%), followed by North America (25.85%),Europe (22.43%), Africa (4.02%), South & Central America (0.89%) and the Middle East (0.3%).Continuous growth has resulted in the Asia Pacific region representing 65.63% of global coalconsumption in 2009 while only 30.13% was consumed by North America and Europe-Eurasiatogether.

    When national consumption cannot be satisfied by national production, net international importbecomes necessary. In 2008, the leading net importers of coal were Japan (205 million tonnes or Mt),South Korea (107 Mt) and Taiwan (70.7 Mt) according to the U.S. Energy InformationAdministration (EIA). China has became a net importer with net imports of 103Mt in 2009.

    In terms of end-use, coal for industrial use has gained dominance according to both InternationalEnergy Outlook (IEO) 2010 (published by EIA) and Energy Stat. 2010 (published by IEA).According to EIA, 64% of coal produced worldwide in 2007 was sent to electricity producers whileanother 33% was sent to industrial consumers. This shows that more than 90% of coal producedworldwide was for industrial use when power generation is included. In 2008, world coalconsumption for industry was 78.5% according to EIA. Although apparent inconsistencies exist, thedata clearly shows that industrial use is the dominant factor in the demand for coal worldwide.

    Coal is an influential source of world energy among all major sources of energy (Liquids 2, Coal,

    Natural gas, Nuclear and Renewable energy). Coal accounted for around a quarter of total worldenergy use in 2007, behind only Liquids (at 35%). According to IEO 2010, coal consumption willgrow by 1.6% per year, faster than Liquids, while Renewable energy will grow at the fastest rate of2.6% p.a. in IEO's forecasts until 2035. In terms of electricity generation, coal accounted for 42% in2007 and will remain largely constant until 2035. While coal is projected to grow by 2.3% per year,renewable energy is expected to demonstrate the strongest growth at 3% over the projection period,displacing the current share of Liquids, Natural gas and Nuclear in electricity generation.

    Demand in China

    - Overview

    To understand the aggregate demand for coal, one should first understand the components of thisdemand. Coal consumption in China is mainly due to power generation, steel production, constructionmaterials and chemical production. From 2005 to 2008, these four major sectors have constitutedmore than 85% of total demand according to the China Coal Trade Dock (CCTD), Deutsche Bank(DB) and Macquarie Research. Although there are variations in the data between different sources,the ranking is the same. The power generation sector accounted for 54%-57% in 2008. The steelsector and construction material sector consumed similar proportions of coal, at 16% and 13%-14%respectively. Provincial consumption is quite evenly distributed in China. No province accounted formore than 10% of total coal demand in China in 2004-2007 (according to CEIC Data and DeutscheBank). Shandong, Shanxi , Hebei and Henan were the leading provinces in 2007 coal consumption.

    Coal consumption increased by more than 10% per year from 2001 to 2006, but growth slowed to 9%in 2007 and was further dampened by the financial crisis in 2008, resulting in a growth rate of only

    2 Liquids in IEO 2010 represents both conventional products, such as crude oil, petroleum etc., andunconventional products, such as biofuels, gas-to-liquids etc. However, liquefied natural gas or hydrogen arenot included.

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    1%, according to the Ministry of Land and Resource of China (MLR). Since February 2009, the year-on-year (yoy) change in overall coal consumption has turned from negative to positive, according todata from combined sources3. In 2009, the growth in consumption was 16%, with a total consumption

    of 3.02 billion tonnes, according to MLR statistics (Fig. 4). An RMB 4 trillion government spendingpackage has indirectly driven strong growth in coal demand. As it stimulated China's GDP growthrate, as well as production in the four major coal-purchasing sectors, to increase again in 2Q09, coaldemand has recorded a double digit (yoy) growth rate in August, September and October 2009.Production Price Index (PPI) of China, a leading indicator of industrial activity, has increased by12.9% (yoy) on average from January to August 2010. Given the exposure of the coal industry toother heavy industries, more coal is consumed to support this production.

    Source: Ministry of Land and Resource of China (2010)

    - Electricity

    The power industry in China has grown significantly in 2010. The total power supply has increased

    by 17.2% (yoy) in the first 8 months of 2010 according to China Electricity Council (CEC). 2740.5billion kWh4 was generated in China and 81% of it came from thermal power. Thermal powergenerated has increased by 18.2% (yoy) on average from January to August 2010. In the same period,heavy industry accounted for 62% of total power consumption. (Fig. 5) As a result, heavy industriesalso consume coal indirectly through electricity consumption. A significant part of coal demand in the

    power industry is driven by activities in heavy industries like the cement industry and steel industry.

    Source: China Electricity Council (2010)5

    3 CCTD, CEIC and Deutsche Bank are the sources used here.4 The kilowatt hour is a unit for measuring electrical energy.

    5 Primary industry represents industry that transforms natural resources into products, such as agriculture andfishing. Secondary industry uses the outputs from Primary industry to manufacture finished products, e.g.clothes manufacturing, steel production or cement production. Tertiary industry represents the service sector.

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    BtFig. 3: China Coal Consumption

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    Fig. 4: Electricity Consumption in Jan-

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    Prima ry Indu stry

    Light industry

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    Residential

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    Given the Chinese government's intention to rely less on coal-fired power generation, it is expectedthat the power sector will decrease in importance as a factor that supports the growth of coal demand.However, the process will be gradual. The government expects to generate 16% less electricity from

    coal by 2020 according to DB. It will take at least ten years for China to achieve this target, and eventhen coal-fired electricity generation will still account for 65% of total electricity generation. So theinfluence of the electricity industry on demand for coal will persist.

    - Steel

    In 2008, the steel sector directly consumed 16% of coal, while more was consumed indirectly throughelectricity consumption. In 2009, the steel industry increased its crude steel production by 13.8%according to Mysteel and J.P. Morgan. Production is expected to grow by 10.3% in 2010 and 5% in2011. This growth may be reduced by government pressure to meet its energy efficiency target by theend of 2010. Growth has already dropped by more than 10% in June-July 2010 from 20% growth inthe first five months of 2010, according to BNP Paribas.

    - Cement

    Production of construction materials directly consumed 14% of total coal in 2008. Cement productionin China has grown by 18% in 2009 according to Digital Cement, CEIC and Gao Hua Securities.Growth remained strong in 1H10 with a 14.9% increase in cement production, according to BNPParibas. The Chinese government lowered its target for cement capacity in August 2010. Furthermore,the Chinese government implemented a series of restrictive policies to control the real estate marketin 1H10. The government has clearly shown its determination to curb over-investment in the realestate industry, so demand for cement from the real estate sector is unlikely to surge in the future.These policies might suppress growth in cement production, but cement production is still expected togrow moderately. BNP Paribas expects 9.7% growth in 2010 and 5.5% in 2011 while Goldman Sachsis more optimistic in forecasting 15% growth in 2010 and 11% growth in 2011.

    - Energy Efficiency Target in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan

    Although coal demand should prosper with the macro economy of China in the long run, the EleventhFive-Year Plan (11th FYP)6 may cause a plunge in the last quarter of the 11 th FYP. China Premier Mr.Wen Jiabo stated in May 2010 that energy consumption per unit of GDP has to decrease by 4.5% in2010 in order to achieve the energy efficiency target set in the 11 th FYP. However, in 1H10consumption has actually increased by 0.09% according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Toachieve the stated goal in short time limit, local governments in the provinces, including Hebei,Jiangsu and Guangdong, have cut or limited electricity supply to polluting industries such as steel andcement industries since late August. Production in many factories was entirely shut down, orsignificantly reduced. Shenyin Wanguo, a financial advisory company, estimates that production inthe cement industry, in the affected provinces, has decreased by 30%. Coal demand could therefore

    decrease in 4Q10 since heavy industries, including cement and power production are its majorcustomers. Although these tough restrictions should be lifted when industries step into 1Q11, the firstquarter of next Five-Year Plan, the production of various industries may not be able to resumesmoothly. So the negative effect on coal consumption may lag into 1Q11.

    II. Coal Supply

    Global Supply of Coal:

    Growth supported by Asian production

    Most regions of the world decreased their production of coal in 2009 in response to the financial crisisin late 2008. North America saw the greatest impact with supply decreasing 9.1%, according to BPReview 2010. South & Central America and Europe & Eurasia plunged by 7.1% and 6.9%

    6 Five-Year Plan is a strategic plan to map the direction of China's economic growth and reforms within a 5-yearperiod. The 11th FYP covers 2006-2010 while the 12th FYP covers 2011-2015.

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    respectively. Asia Pacific was the driver of coal production growth with an 8.6% increase in outputresulting in 2.4% global growth for 2009.

    Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2010)

    China is the largest coal producer, producing about half of world production, followed by the U.S. ataround 15%, according to data from IEA report 2010. A correspondingly huge consumption meansthat China is not the leading net exporter. Australia leads with net exports of 278 Mt, while Indonesiaexported 228 Mt in 2008 according to the EIA. Other net exporters such as Russia and Colombiaexported less than 100Mt.

    China Supply

    From 2001 to 2007, China's coal production had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.0%according to MLR (Fig. 6). This growth rate decreased to 3% in 2008, but it regained its pace in 2009to 16%. Production of coal in China has been increasing quickly, with a 24% (yoy) on average, in thefirst 5 months of 2010, according to Northeast Asian Coal Exchange Center (NACEC). Production inMay 2010 was 280 Mt, remaining constant for the third consecutive month.

    Source: China Ministry of Land and Resource (2010)

    - Concentrated Provincial Supply

    The distribution of coal supply in China is more concentrated than the distribution of coalconsumption; 41% of coal was supplied by Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in 2008, according to CEICand DB. Shaanxi was third, producing 9% of total coal, while Henan followed with 8%. The three

    leading supply provinces also have the largest coal reserves according to Wood Mackenzie. AlthoughXinjiang has the 4th largest reserves, extraction activity was limited by inconvenient logistics. Due to

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    the disparity in provincial supply and demand distribution, there are net consuming provinces and netsupplying provinces. Net supplying provinces are located in the North-West, led by Shanxi, InnerMongolia and Shaanxi, while net consuming provinces are usually in the South-Eastern part of China,

    such as Jiangsu and Guangdong.

    - Competitive Industry Structure

    The Four-Firm Concentration Ratio7in China's coal industry was only 21% in 2008 according to DB.This indicates that China's coal industry is a competitive market. Small producers are important toChina's coal industry. Small mines accounted for 38% of total coal production in 2008. Therefore,regulation of small mines to raise mining safety might have a significant impact on coal supply.Although government policies still affect the industry, low concentration levels in the industry, andthe importance of small mines, leave the government with less ability to intervene in the marketthrough giant state-owned enterprises.

    - Saturated Transportation

    In order to fulfil the demand in net consuming regions, coal has to be transported from North-westernChina to South-Eastern China. Extracted coal is usually trucked to railway lines and then sent to ports,often Qinhuangdao and Huanghua. The coal is the shipped to coastal consuming regions. The mostsignificant logistic constraint in this North-to-South trade is the railway. Daqin railway andShenhuang railway, connecting leading supply provinces to ports, have gone over 70% of utilisationin the first three quarters of 2009 and Daqin line utilised 85% of its capacity in 3Q09 according toDB. Furthermore, Daqin line has reached 99.7% of utilisation in 1H10 according to Taiyuan RailwayAdministration. This illustrates the extraordinary stresses on the coal transportation industry in China.Railway will be the major bottleneck for expansion of China's coal industry.

    - Starting International Import

    Coal imports from other countries is another source of coal supply. The majority of China's importscome from Australia (thermal and coking coal8), Indonesia (thermal) and Vietnam (anthracite9). Chinabecame a net importer of coal in 2009, but net international imports amounted to less than 5% of coal production in 2010 (130 Mt, according to China Customs) and will again in 2011, according toforecasts by DB.

    III. Price

    Global Coal Price

    As an influential net exporter of coal, the Australian export thermal coal price is used as an indicatorfor the global coal price. The Australian coal price had been within the range of US$ 25-60/tonne formore than 20 years, before it surged to almost US$ 200/tonne in mid 2008, according to the

    International Monetary Fund (Fig. 7). The coal price plummeted after the global financial crisis in2008. In August 2010, Australian thermal coal was selling for $95.99/tonne, down from the recentpeak in January 2010 of US$ 103.93/tonne.

    7 This ratio represents the competitiveness of a market, perfectly competitive (0%-50%), oligopolistic (50% -80%) or monopolistic (80% - 100%)

    8 Thermal coal is usually used in power generation by coal combustion while coking coal is used for productionof steel and other metals.

    9 A type of coal with low impurity level. Its principal use is, similar to coking coal, for iron smelting.

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    Source: International Monetary Fund (2010), North-east Asian Coal Exchange Center (2010)

    China Coal Price

    In China, Qinhuangdao (QHD) port coal price is the spot price indicator in China given its importanceto seaborne coal. Following the global coal price, 5800 kcal thermal coal achieved a high price ofRMB 1037/tonne before the global financial crisis, according to NACEC (Fig. 7). In June and July2010 the price rose to RMB 785/tonne, but the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) of China commented that SOEs10 and market leaders should keep the coal spot price steady.As a result the QHD coal price did not go up further and gradually decreased to RMB 760/tonne on21st September 2010. NDRC was satisfied with the result and believed that coal supply-demandwould loosen as coal consumption decreased in early September 2010. In 2H10, Morgan Stanleyexpects the coal price to remain stable between RMB 750 and RMB 800 per tonne while UBS also

    expects the spot price to be RMB 780/tonne. Furthermore, China's government acted strictly toreduce production by heavy industries. As a consequence, the supply of coal may go over the demandleading coal prices to decline until the end of 2010. Stringent measures may also leave negative side-effects, which could affect those industries for a longer period.

    IV.Influential Factors for the Future of the Coal Industry

    Green Economy in Future China

    With increasing awareness about climate change, global society has been working hard on moving alleconomies towards being more environmentally sustainable. China sees the need for environmentalsustainability and faces international pressure as well. China participated in the Kyoto Protocol, whichis an agreement to mitigate climate change and further promised during the 2009 Copenhagen Summit

    to reduce carbon emissions per unit GDP to 40-45% below 2005 levels. A green economy, therefore,should be the future focus for China.

    China's State Council issued a document in September 2010 identifying Energy Efficiency forEnvironment Protection as a leading goal. Arriving close to the end of the 11 th FYP, this documenthas significant implications for the future focus of the Chinese government in the 12 th FYP (for 2011

    2015). The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) also stated in Sept 2010 thatthere will be restrictions on high pollution and high energy consumption companies, as measured byquantitative indicators, in the 12 th FYP. Professor Hu of Tsing Hua University, who participatedinitially in the drafting of the 12th FYP, also told media that there will be more green indicators tomeasure the achievements of local officials.

    10 SOE: State-owned enterprise, usually a market leader in a specific industry.

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    US$RMBFig. 7: Coal Spot Price

    Qinhuangdao Price (left) Australian Price (right)

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    All of these indications from the Chinese government show that the goals of environmental protectionand energy efficiency have shaped the core of the 12 th FYP. Given the influence of the Chinesegovernment over business in the past, companies which can improve energy efficiency and protect the

    environment at once are likely to benefit from government policies in the future. Some may beconcerned by government restrictions on using dirty coal as an energy source, but it should not beforgotten that China's government still expects 65% of energy to be derived from coal in 2020.Rather, companies who can help reduce pollution from coal consumption will be welcomed andencouraged by the government.

    Consolidation in China Coal Industry

    Larger coal companies can enjoy economies of scale by adopting more advanced, but larger scale,extraction methods. However, it is also harder for larger companies to escape from mine safetyresponsibilities. When companies increase in size, the government can urge companies moresystematically to improve production efficiency as well as mine safety. Therefore, since 2009, the

    Chinese government has been restructuring its coal industry to make it an oligopolistic market.On the national level, the Chinese government intends to have 6-8 companies with capacities higherthan 100Mt, and at least 10 companies with capacities larger than 50Mt, as an objective for the 12 th

    FYP according to China Securities Journal, a subsidiary of Xinhua. On the provincial level, Shanxiand Inner Mongolia, the two leading coal producing provinces, have been actively restructuring theiractivities. In Shanxi, the total number of coal companies has been reduced from 2200 to less than 140,and the number of coal mines also decreased from 2598 to 1000 in 2009-2010. Small to medium sizecoal mines, which were closed down, accounted for about 200Mt of coal production. The Shanxigovernment planned to raise the production of three companies to more than 100Mt/year and supportsthe expansion of four companies to 50Mt/year in 2011. Inner Mongolia is expecting to restructure thecoal industry of 350 companies to 180 companies. Among them, there would be two companies witha capacity larger than 100Mt, nine companies larger than 50Mt and 19 of them would be larger than10Mt.

    Source: Xinhua News Agency (2010)

    Given the numbers, this restructuring seems substantial, however in comments on the restructuring inShanxi to Xinhua, the Deputy Director of National Energy Administration Wu Yin, said he believedthe market concentration would remain low after restructuring. He also observed that it was stillcommon for multiple bodies to be operating in one mining area. This might make the adoption oflarge scale coal extraction methods difficult, so the restructured industry might continue to beincapable of raising production efficiency. Therefore, one should be aware that, although the number

    of companies operating has gone down, as the government hoped, it this does not necessarilyrepresent the end of a successful restructuring. Some may choose to achieve the target number for the

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    FYP first. It may take some time for the industry to achieve a truly comprehensive restructuring, andsignificant production improvements.

    V.Recent Market ActivitiesIn 3Q10, various listed companies have been acquiring mines directly, or through companyacquisition, to own coal resources. Several deals related to China's coal companies or resources have

    been announced every month. This shows the activeness of China's coal market.

    In September, Dongguan Winnerway Industrial Zone Limited acquired a 70% share of a coal mine inGuizhou province at a price of RMB 47.95 million. The mine can produce 150 thousand tonnes/yearand the mining licence is valid until November 2013. In the same month, Yanzhou Coal spent RMB6.6 billion for a 51% equity interest in Haoshing Coal Mining, an Inner Mongolia company. 838.4 Mtof coal resources controlled by Hoashing has been added to Yanzhou's portfolio.

    In August, Huadian Power International (Huadian) acquired 3 companies which possess mines

    located in the Shanghaimiao mining area, Inner Mongolia. Huadian purchased a 35% equity interestin Quanhui Company which owns Shazhangtu mine for RMB 939 million, a 35% share of Baihuicompany which controls Heiliang Coal Mine for RMB 570 million and a 20% share in Zhengtaicompany which owns Manghatu coal mine for RMB 268 million. The production capacities of thesemines are 3Mt, 1.8Mt and 1.2Mt per year respectively. These moves, together with two earlieracquisitions, were part of a strategic cooperation plan with Xinwen Mining Group for development inthe west zone of the Shanhaimiao mining area. The production capacity of this area can be over 10Mt/year. Kiu Hung Energy Holdings also announced an acquisition of exploration and mininglicenses for certain mines located in Guizhou province at a price not more than HKD 8.9 billion. Theaggregate amount of coal reserves would be approximately 690 Mt.

    In July, DeTeam Company announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding to acquire 7exploration licenses over the Shivee-Ovoo brown coal mine in Mongolia, for US$ 10 million. Thelicensed area was estimated to have 2.14 Bt of coal reserves. Taian Lurun Company increased itsequity in Huaying Shanxi Energy Investment Company, which owns 3 mines in Shanxi with 1.95Mtcapacity per year, from 40% to 70% for RMB 125 million. Another RMB 490 million would beinvested for 7 mine exploration license in Shanxi, which could be combined into one mine with acapacity of 0.9Mt/year.

    Conclusion

    Global coal demand is increasingly affected by coal demand in the Asia Pacific region. Especiallyafter the global financial crisis, Asia Pacific demand growth is now the strongest support for coalconsumption growth. Compared to other energy sources, coal is the second source in the world afteroil. However, coal is the primary source in China and is mainly consumed by heavy industries such as

    electricity production, cement and steel. As China recovers from the crisis, those sectors will benefitfrom a more prosperous economy. They are all recording significant growth that consequently boostscoal demand. On the other hand, failure to meet the energy efficiency target set in the 11 th FYP maycause local governments to adopt tougher policies, including limits on electricity supply to highenergy consumption and polluting factories. This could affect coal demand in the last quarter of 11 th

    FYP.

    On the supply side, global supply is also driven by the Asia Pacific region. While China is the leadingproducer, Australia and Indonesia are the leading net exporters. Japan and China are the leading netimporters. There are no giant coal companies in China, and small mines account for a significant

    proportion of production in China. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, the leading supply provinces,are all concentrated in the north western region. Therefore, China's coal supply is scattered in terms of

    ownership but concentrated in terms of location. Furthermore, as the net demand areas are located inthe south east coastal area of China, transportation of coal is an important issue in China's coal

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    industry, and the railway network has already reached a high utilisation ratio. China has become a netimporter in 2009 but the total imports represent less than 5% of China's consumption.

    Coal price movements are consistent between the global market and China's market. Prices sky-rocketed before the financial crisis and plummeted at the beginning of 2009. Global prices and pricesin China have picked up since then. It is expected that there will not be much variation in coal price inthe medium term.

    It is expected that the next Five-Year Plan will emphasize energy efficiency and environmentprotection programs. Restructuring is one of the ways to improve efficiency and it is under way. Thenumbers show that enormous restructuring has been done quickly. However, it will take more time toachieve a comprehensive restructuring and reveal the full potential of coal mines. In the future, thecoal industry will have to strive for higher energy efficiency and lower emissions. Otherwise toughmeasures, like the electricity limit in 4Q10, may occur more frequently as the government strives toachieve its goals. Given intervention by the Chinese government in the past, companies or industriesthat can support the government's goals will be strongly supported in turn.

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    Company Overview

    Censere is a transaction support and value consulting group. Through a unique combination of

    valuation, research and advisory skills we assist clients in a range of activities such as:

    Equity Capital Market Transactions

    Fair Value/Tax Reporting

    Private Equity and Illiquid Asset Fund Management

    Mergers & Acquisitions/Divestments

    Intellectual Property Commercialisation

    Insurance Management

    Litigation Support

    Clients range from SME's to multi-national corporations, banks, insurance companies, investmentfunds, financial advisers, audit firms and legal advisers - in fact, anyone who requires quality,independent advice.

    Our services cover all classes of commercial assets, including; debt, equity, derivatives, financialinstruments, financial guarantees, real estate, machinery and equipment, inventory, mineral resources,intellectual property and other intangibles and employee benefit schemes.

    In addition to pure valuation services we provide industry research, intellectual capital advisory,technical feasibility studies, financial modelling, independent expert advice and a multitude of other

    services.

    Censere also has a wide footprint, with ten offices throughout Asia Pacific and working experience inalmost every country across the region.

    We look forward to helping you achieve your objectives.

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    Censere Group

    Singapore Head Office

    11 Keng Cheow Street#03-11 Riverside Piazza

    Singapore 059608Tel. (65) 6220 0853Fax. (65) 6220 2039

    e-mail [email protected]

    Auckland

    Level 27, PWC Tower

    188 Quay StreetAucklandNew Zealand

    Tel. (64-9) 363 2903Fax. (64-9) 363 2904

    e-mail [email protected]

    Bangkok

    Level 8-9, Zuellig House1-7 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak

    Bangkok 10500Thailand

    Tel. (66-2) 231 8485

    Fax. (66-2) 935 8052e-mail [email protected]

    Beijing

    Unit 1104, Ocean Express Tower AChaoyang District

    Beijing 100027China

    Tel. (86-10) 8446 6199Fax. (86-10) 8446 6311

    E-mail [email protected]

    Hong Kong

    Unit B, 9/F Tower 2Tern Centre

    251 Queen's Road CentralHong Kong

    Tel. (852) 2511 2011Fax. (852) 2511 2005

    e-mail [email protected]

    Kuala Lumpur

    Suite 806, Level 8, Block APhileo Damansara I, 9 Jalan 16/11

    46350 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Darul EhsanMalaysia

    Tel (60-3) 7623 1018Fax (60-3) 7666 1184

    e-mail [email protected]

    Maldives

    M. Banf Villa (Level 6B)Majeedhee MaguMale'

    Republic of MaldivesTel: +960 300 9585Fax: +960 330 9590

    e-mail [email protected]

    Shanghai

    Room 601, 6/F Dong Yi Building88 Chang Shu Road

    Shanghai 200040China

    Tel. (86-21) 6249 7358Fax. (86-21) 6249 4308

    e-mail [email protected]

    Sydney

    Level 57, MLC CentreMartin Place

    Sydney, NSW2000Australia

    Tel. (61-2) 9236 7313Fax. (61-2) 9236 7314

    e-mail [email protected]

    TokyoBancho M Bldg.

    3F, 2-8 RokubanchoChiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 102-0085

    JapanTel. (81-3) 5275 1065Fax. (81-3) 5275 1066

    e-mail [email protected]

    www.censere.com