国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission

China Energy Transition (2050):Coal-fired plant peaking load and V2G will be the core of

deregulated electricity market designs supporting Green

and low carbon electricity revolution

Wang Zhongying

Wangzhy @eri.org.cn

Mar.17, 2016

Coal consumption conflicts to the sustainable of social and economic development

Seriously environment issues!

Smog in January of 2013

0-200

201-400

401-1000

1001-1500

>1500

Coal consumption density in 2012

Coal and Smog

2015 Coal-fired plant

PM2.5 density in

November and

December of 2014

<2C

Global 1990

20.8 bt CO2

10 bt

China 2050

Energy growth 1.5%

China 2050

12.6 bt

Energy growth 2%Global 2050

10.4-16 bt

IPCC

Coal consumption is key issue for China Energy Transition: By 2050, coal should be controlled in 1 billion tce and the total fossil energy consumption could not exceed one third of total primary energy

Energy transition trend: energy supply and demand

reform focusing on power sector--abandoning coal-

dominated energy development concept

• Demand side power system transition: 60% electrification by 2050；

• Supply side green power transition: RE-dominated or mainstreamed power supply system;

– Continuously decreasing coal consumption for power generation use: technology innovation, coal power for peaking load, and fossil fuel accounting for less than 30% by 2050

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1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

能源消费总量(万吨标准煤)

增速（%）

China energy consumption trends since 1978 reform

Strategy: Coal and Oil must reduction, Synchronously for

Wind and Solar must quick Development, Natural Gas

Development for meeting RE shortage

• Primary Energy Structure: non-fossil ratio– 2020: 15% to 20%– 2030: 20% to 33%– 2050: 33% to 66%

• Final Energy Structure– Electrification: 24% (now) to 60-65% (2050)

• Primary Energy Supply (2050)– 65-75tce to 35tce

• Final Energy Consumption (2050)– 48tce to 32tce

High RE Penetration Will Help Bring Back Clear Water and Blue Skies

2050 China's SO2 and NOX Emission in High Penetration Scenario

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35%

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China USA EU China Share of Global

Units: billion tons

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1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario

China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario

Units: million tons

2050 China's CO2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario

Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data

And data of other countries is trend prediction

Data from IEA ETP 2014

THE World is also beautiful!

HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE

HIGHER LEVEL OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION

26%

33%

37%

41%

47%

51%

54%

59%

62%

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Coal Oilproducts

Nature Gas

Electricityconsumption

Bio fuel SWHGeo thermal

Electrification share

Units: billion tce

RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL

ENERY

22% 23%

29%

41%

53%

67%

78%

84%86%

28%

34%

46%

57%

71%

82%

88%91%

TWh

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2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro

WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW

WOOD GEOTHERMAL WAVE RE share Non-fossil energy Share

Wind Power and Solar Power Will Become Important Pillars of

the Future Power Supply

Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario

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1000000

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3000000

20112013201520172019202120232025202720292031203320352037203920412043204520472049

Wind PV&CSP

2020,307GW

2020,174GW

2040, 2204GW

2040, 2056GW

2050:2400GW

2050:2690GW

Action and Policy to ensure the realization of

high penetration of RE by 2050

• Economic transition: annual productivity for 50 million EVs by 2040– By 2020: 10 million Evs; by 2030 20 million and 30 million EVs, cumulatively with 100 million EVs or 40%

of the total cars

• Energy transition: wind power and solar power development– By 2020：300 GW for wind power, 200 GW for solar power

– By 2030：1100 GW for wind power, 1000 GW for solar power

• Power system reform: 5-10 years and a fully-competitive power market by 2025– RE can play full roles: smart/intellegient energy

• Production and consumption

– RE can reach everywhere: smart/intellegient network• Energy internet

• Reform on state-owned companies– Market shall decide the resource allocation

• Exception: state security

• Legal and regulation system to administer a country– Citizens (market): negative activity list (what are not allowed)

– Government: positive activity list (what must be done)

Future Electricity System: It will be Reliable and

Flexible (after 2030)

• By 2050: 500 million vehicles, in which 400 million EVs, which will take peaking load 870GW• By 2050: Still have 900 GW coal-fired plant, but only for peaking load• By 2050: Wind and Solar total 5100 GW, but we have peaking load power 1770 GW, which

account 34.7% of wind and solar power

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T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024

NUCLEAR COAL Hydro NAT_GAS WIND WOOD SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOGAS STRAW MUNI_WASTE HEAT WAVE FUELOIL PUMPED_HYDRO

One day of 2050 in China

Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every

each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps

are moving towards the end of own chosen target.

──Milan Kundera