china: today, tomorrow and the transition kenneth w. hunter maryland china initiative, university of...
TRANSCRIPT
China: Today, Tomorrow and the Transition
Kenneth W. HunterMaryland China Initiative, University of Maryland
What is China
China and Our Common Global Agenda: Looking to 2013 and Beyond
China components of your alternative scenarios and plans
What is China?What westerners see as tourists
and observers vs. the big, diverse and intense China we experience
China by the maps
China by the numbers
Chinese and American traditions and temperament
Ken as tourist
What tourists and observers see
What tourists and observers see
What tourists and observers see
What tourists and observers see
China for tourists and observers: the Sichuan earthquake
Experiencing China today
Big
Diverse
Intense
Big, diverse and intense: massive industrial operations
Big, diverse and intense: coal powered
Big, diverse and intense: largest car market
Big, diverse and intense: more cars
Big, diverse and intense: construction everywhere
Big, diverse and intense: more construction
Big, diverse and intense: massive cement operations
Big, diverse and intense: small farm agriculture
Big, diverse and intense: more farms
Big, diverse and intense: more farms
Big, diverse and intense: more farms
Big, diverse and intense: water
Big, diverse and intense: water
Big, diverse and intense: water
Big, diverse and intense: massive production facilities
Big, diverse and intense: worker protests
Big, diverse and intense: Massive Factory “Towns”
Big, diverse and intense: massive rail system development
Big, diverse and intense: massive port operations
Big, diverse and intense: shipping around the world
Big, diverse and intense: industrial and research parks
Big, diverse and intense: new environmental technology industry
Big, diverse and intense: more environmental industry
Big, diverse and intense: retailing is taking off
Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- IT
Big, diverse and intense: development of the professions -- finance
Big, diverse and intense: development of investment markets
Big, diverse and intense: huge reserves and currency pegged to dollar
Big, diverse and intense: military development
Big, diverse and intense: military development
Big, diverse and intense: civilian aircraft development
China by the maps
Make sure you are using the correct maps!
China by the maps: The World as Seen from America
China by the maps: Great River Systems
China by the maps: borders
China by the maps: Asia as Seen from Asia
China by the numbers
China by the numbers: PopulationPopulations 1.3 billion
Rate of change 0.5
Gender disparity 115 males to 100 females
Civilian labor force 800 million
Labor force distribution:
Agriculture 40 percent
Mfg, mining, utilities, const. 27
Services 33
China by the numbers: ProductionGDP (PPP) $10 trillion
GDP per capita (PPP) $7,500
Annual growth rate 8 to 12 percent
Origin of GDP:
Agriculture 11 percent
Mfg, mining, utilities, const. 49 percent
Services 40 percent
China by the numbers: foreign tradeExports: percent of GDP 33 percent
Imports: percent of GDP 26 percent
Major exports:
Telecommunications equipment 13 percent
Computers 11
Electrical and semiconductors 11
Clothing 9
China by the numbers: foreign tradeImports: percent of GDP 26 percent
Major imports:
Electrical and semiconductors 20
Petroleum and products 15
Iron and steel 9
Professional instruments 6
China by the numbers: foreign trade
China by the numbers: Reserves and Currency ValueForeign Exchange Reserves $2,850
billion
Renminbi per dollar:
2005 and earlier 8.2
2007 7.6
2008 6.9
Today 6.6
Resumed gradual appreciation in June 2010
China and U.S. traditions and temperaments
Chinese traditions and temperament
2,500 + years
And
United States traditions and temperament
250+ years
China and U.S. traditions and temperaments
A basis for
Convergence,
Co-evolution or
Conflict
through the 21st Century?
China and U.S. traditions and temperaments
A basis for
Convergence,
Co-evolution or
Conflict
through the 21st Century?
China and Our Common Global
Agenda
The Questions You Should Be Asking
China Component of
Alternative Scenarios
Ken’s
Patterns of Change and
Leadership and Luck Matrix
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic
Barring bad luck and bad leadership, China will complete its modernization to catch up and regain a leadership position in the world in the next few decades in a process of co-evolution with the West. Today all of the key elements of that modernization are mid-way (1979 to 2040) but have significant momentum:
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic Moving all China’s people out of poverty
Industrialization and urbanization within climate change limits on a per capita basis
Science and technology up to date in application with a few innovations
Governance institutions with high competence and much improved ethics but still as a one party system
Regional political, economic and security relationships stabilized but still stressed over water and supply chain protection
International relationships and participation on a basis of mutual respect and collaboration where needed
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic
The question:
Does China have the momentum, capacity and resilience to survive the next globally cascading crisis and remain in a leadership position?
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic
If yes, China will participate in shaping the post-crisis global institutions, which will involve confronting complexity while modernizing, streamlining and rebalancing our institutions.
China baseline scenario theme: cautiously optimistic
If China fails, all the world will have a very large problem to deal with and the next global crisis likely will be very deep and very long in duration.
QuestionsKenneth W. Hunter
Senior Fellow
Maryland China Initiative
University of Maryland
Tel: 410-925-7395
E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]