china’s industry & market: growing impact on the world · presentation outline introduction...

57
WOOD MARKETS Group 1 China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World UN-ECE Timber Committee Meetings Geneva, Switzerland October 3, 2006 By: Russell Taylor & Jane Guo INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS GROUP ( R.E. TAYLOR & ASSOCIATES & INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS RESEARCH) Vancouver, B.C., Canada +1 604-801-5996 www.woodmarkets.com UN-ECE Timber Committee Meetings Geneva, Switzerland October 3, 2006 By: Russell Taylor & Jane Guo INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS GROUP ( R.E. TAYLOR & ASSOCIATES & INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS RESEARCH) Vancouver, B.C., Canada +1 604-801-5996 www.woodmarkets.com

Upload: others

Post on 20-Aug-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup1

China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the WorldChina’s Industry & Market:

Growing Impact on the WorldUN-ECE Timber Committee Meetings

Geneva, SwitzerlandOctober 3, 2006

By: Russell Taylor & Jane Guo

INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS GROUP( R.E. TAYLOR & ASSOCIATES &

INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS RESEARCH)Vancouver, B.C., Canada

+1 604-801-5996 www.woodmarkets.com

UN-ECE Timber Committee MeetingsGeneva, Switzerland

October 3, 2006

By: Russell Taylor & Jane Guo

INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS GROUP( R.E. TAYLOR & ASSOCIATES &

INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS RESEARCH)Vancouver, B.C., Canada

+1 604-801-5996 www.woodmarkets.com

Page 2: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup2

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group

1. China’s Role in Global Trade2. Russia’s Fit with China3. China’s Industry & Trade in Transition4. China’s Increasing Exports to USA5. China’s Increasing Exports to Europe6. China’s Business7. Outlook on the Chinese Processing Industry

Page 3: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup3

Introduction to:International WOOD MARKETS Group

Introduction to:International WOOD MARKETS Group

• We are wood products industry consultants and we assist companies around the world to develop operational, marketing & business strategies.

• We are known as global market & industry experts/analysts on timber, lumber, panels & many millwork products sold in the U.S. market & key export markets

• We produce Multi-Client Reports: Europe & Russia; Clearwood Pine; Global Lumber Benchmarking; The China Book; WOOD Markets 2000, 2002 & 2006; & the WOOD Markets Monthly Report

Page 4: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

About: International WOOD MARKETS Group

Specialty Products•Various Lumber Items•OSB/Plywood/MDF•Engineered Wood:

- I-Joists & LVL- Finger-joint items- Edge-glued panels

•Doors & Windows•Mouldings & Millwork•Treated Wood

Global Topics•Benchmarking:

- Manufacturing- Timberland- Market Audits

•Competitor Analysis•Product/Market Analysis•Entry & Export Strategies•Regional/Global Supply &

Demand Forecasts•US/Global Price Forecasts•Due Diligence: Investments

Consulting Projects: US/Global Markets

Page 5: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup5

WOOD Markets’ Multi-Client ReportsWOOD Markets’ Multi-Client Reports

Page 6: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

About: International WOOD MARKETS Group

International:• Lumber ~4 of the Top 5 Companies are Clients• Moulding/Doors ~8-10 of the Top 10 are ClientsUSA:• Lumber ~14 of the Top 20 Companies are Clients• Plywood/OSB 3 of the Top 5 are ClientsCanada:• Lumber ~16 of the Top 20 Companies are Clients• Plywood/OSB 3 of the Top 5 are Clients

Consulting Projects: Clients

Page 7: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

R.E. Taylor &Associates Ltd.WOOD Markets

About: International WOOD MARKETS Group

Services Offered:• Market research in China;• Trade data analysis & of China imports & exports;• Industry tours & supplier/company assessments;• Sourcing of Chinese suppliers for finished products;• Sourcing of Chinese buyers of logs, cants & lumber; • Liaison with Chinese government, legal personnel &

others for setting up businesses in China.

China Office, Beijing (Est. Jan. 1, 2006)

Page 8: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup8

We have Produced:“The China

Book”

We have Produced:“The China

Book”

THE CHINA BOOK –

Wood Products Industry &

Market ReviewPart 1 & 2 = Released

in March 2006;

Part 3 = Released in June 2006

Page 9: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup9

1. China’s Role in Global Trade1. China’s Role in Global TradeChina’s rank in global trade:

• Production: Global Rank• Softwood lumber #4 (could be higher)• Hardwood lumber #2 (may be #1)• Plywood #1• Blockboard #1• MDF #1• Particleboard #3• Furniture #2• Finished Products Soaring

• Imports #2 after the USA• Exports #1

Page 10: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup10

China = #1 Softwood Log ImporterChina = #1 Softwood Log Importer

China & Europe = the 2 major global importers

Global Industrial Roundwood (Coniferous) Imports

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04Source: FAO/

Wood Markets

(x00

0 m

3)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

(Mill

ion

bf)

Other

Europe - Top 10

S. Korea

Japan

China

Page 11: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup11

China = #1 Hardwood Log ImporterChina = #1 Hardwood Log Importer

China has absorbed all the incremental supply since ‘98

Global Industrial Roundwood (Non-Coniferous) Imports

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Source: FAO/ Wood Markets

(x00

0 m

3)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

(Mill

ion

bf -

Scrib

ner)

Other

Belgium

Japan

Italy

Canada Sweden

Finland

China

Page 12: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup12

China = #3 Plywood ExporterChina = #3 Plywood Exporter

China (& Brazil) = the fastest growing exporters!!

Global Plywood Exports - By Country

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03Source: FAO

(x00

0 m

3)

0.0

3.4

6.8

10.2

13.6

17.0

20.3

23.7

27.1

(Bill

ion

sf -

3/8"

Bas

is

Other

Canada

Finland

Russia

Brazil

China

Malaysia

Indonesia

Page 13: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup13

China = World’s 2nd Largest Import MarketChina = World’s 2nd Largest Import Market

China is 2nd to the U.S., in terms of imports, but is the world’s largest importer of logs.

China: Global Import Market Share

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Softwood Lbr

Hardwood Lbr

Tropica

l H/W

Lbr

Softwood Logs

Hardwood Logs

Tropica

l H/W

LogsPlywood

Tropica

l H/W

Plywood

% G

loba

l Mar

ket S

hare

19962004

China is the #1 Import

Country for Logs & H/W

Lumber

& the #1 Exporter for a variety of commodity & finished products

Page 14: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup14

2. Russia’s Fit with China2. Russia’s Fit with China• Siberian & RFE Log Exports are high volume to China (and Japan) = High Margin Business!• There remains a strong incentive for Russians to export logs regardless of how they obtain them (legally or illegally, although this is changing…). • China’s northern wood industry is booming based on a heavy diet of imported Russian logs and lumber = “gold rush” in terms of Chinese processing plants.• But delivered log costs from Russia to China are increasing = getting to be very expensive and becoming one of the highest cost in the world!

Page 15: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup15

Russia = #1 Softwood Log ExporterRussia = #1 Softwood Log Exporter

70% of Russian softwood logs are shipped to China!

Global Industrial Roundwood (Coniferous) Exports

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Source: FAO/Wood Markets

(x00

0 m

3)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Mill

ion

bf)

Other

Europe - Top 10

Canada

New Zealand

U.S.

Russia

Page 16: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup16

Russia = #1 Hardwood Log ExporterRussia = #1 Hardwood Log Exporter

~40% of Russian hardwood logs are shipped to China

Global Industrial Roundwood (Non-Coniferous) Exports

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Source: FAO/ Wood Markets

(x00

0 m

3)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

(Mill

ion

bf -

Scr

ibne

r)

Other France

Gabon Papua NG

Latvia

U.S. Malaysia Russia

Page 17: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup17

China’s Surging Log ImportsChina’s Surging Log ImportsChina Log Imports

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04Source: China Custom s Sta tistics; USDA-FAS * '03 & '04 Estim ated

Mill

ion

m3

Hardwood

Softwood

68% of China’s log imports are from Russia

Page 18: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup18

China’s Surging Russian Log ImportsChina’s Surging Russian Log Imports

Total log imports = 68% from Russia!

China: Logs and Lumber Imports From Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Source: CTDA

Note: RWE(RoundwoodEquivalent)

Mill

ion

m3 Lumber

(RWE)Logs

Page 19: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup19

Russia/China Fit in Global MarketsRussia/China Fit in Global Markets• China = largest log importer in the world.• Russia = largest log exporter in the world.• China needs Russia; Russia needs China.• Putin government is considering (is threatening) to either increase log export duties, or reduce/eliminate log exports.• IF this occurs in part or in whole, China’s processing industry would lose much of its raw material supply!• Global raw material prices (logs, lumber, plywood, etc.) would soar and/or China’s output would crash!• Need to key your eye on China & Russia!!

Page 20: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup20

3. China’s Industry & Trade in Transition:The Chinese Wood Processing Industry

Continues to Evolve

3. China’s Industry & Trade in Transition:The Chinese Wood Processing Industry

Continues to Evolve• Initial success was primarily in furniture and capitalized on:

• Low cost labor

• Lower priced imported raw material

• Various levels of imported technology and quality control were introduced and applied.

• Investments in shipping/containerization –improved transportation logistics and reduced export costs.

Page 21: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup21

Chinese Furniture Industry GrowthChinese Furniture Industry Growth

For the period 1997-2005, Shipments up 18%/year - Exports up 34%/year!

China: Furniture Total Shipments and Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06f

Source: CNFA & WOOD Markets

USD

Bill

ion

Shipments

Exports

Page 22: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup22

Transition: Buyer to SupplierTransition: Buyer to Supplier

Panel output soars in all products!

China: Wood Based Panel Production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Source: SFA

Mill

ion

m3

OtherParticleboardFibreboardPlywood

Page 23: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup23

What is the Export Potential?What is the Export Potential?

Wood Based Panel Exports are just a fraction (~10%) of total production!

China: Wood Based Panels Production, Imports and Exports

0

20

40

60

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Source:CTI & SFA

Mill

ions

m3 Imports

ExportsProduction

Page 24: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup24

Transition: Imports to ExportsTransition: Imports to Exports

Output continues to explode!

China: Plywood Production

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Source: SFAM

illio

n m

3

Page 25: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup25

Transition: Imports to ExportsTransition: Imports to Exports

Imports plunge as exports explode!

China: Plywood Imports

0

1

2

3

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 Source: SFA & CTI

Mill

ion

m3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Mill

ion

USD

VolumeValue

China: Plywood Exports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06* Source: SFA & CTI* Note: '06 (6 m ths)

Mill

ion

m3

0

333

667

1,000

1,333

1,667

2,000

Mill

ion

USD

VolumeValue

Page 26: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup26

Transition: Imports to ExportsTransition: Imports to Exports

Production & exports growing at similar pace

China: Plywood Supply/Demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Source:SFA & CTI

Note: '05 Im portsEstim ated

Mill

ion

m3 Imports

ProductionConsumptionExports

Page 27: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup27

Transition: Imports to ExportsTransition: Imports to Exports

Plywood imports are slowing while plywood exports continue to explode!

China: Plywood Imports and Exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

00 01 02 03 04 05FS o urc e : S F A & WOOD M a rke ts

x000

m3

ExportImport

Page 28: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup28

Transition: Imports to ExportsTransition: Imports to Exports

+MDF imports have peaked while MDF exports continue to surge!

China: MDF Imports and Exports

0

500

1000

1500

00 01 02 03 04 05S o urc e : S F A &

C TI

x000

m3

ExportImport

Page 29: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup29

Transition: Imports to ExportsTransition: Imports to Exports

Imports plunge as exports explode!

China: Laminate Flooring Imports and Exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

00 01 02 03 04 05Source: CC

x000

tons

ExportImport

Page 30: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup30 35-50 Chinese workers = 1 Western worker!

China’s Wages = ~US $0.50/hour; ~$100/Month

China’s Wages = ~US $0.50/hour; ~$100/Month

Operating Labor: Monthly Wages

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

Vietnam

China

Philippines

Thailand

Malaysia

Latin America

Hong Kong

E. Europe

Taiwan

Singapore

Korea

Oceania

W. Europe

USA

Nordic Countries

Canada

US$/Month

Source: WOOD MARKETS

Page 31: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup31

China’s Industry ScaleChina’s Industry Scale

• The industry scale in China ranges from:

• World class (furniture, doors, MDF, paper);

• Moderate scale (plywood, flooring);

• Small scale (sawnwood, mouldings).

• The level of technology to meet export quality requirements is also critical (kilns, moulders, lacquer lines, finishing equipment).

• The future growth in the Chinese industry will likely include even larger, more high-tech plants that will incorporate scale and export quality.

Page 32: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup32

• Increasing difficulty sourcing competitively priced raw materials.• Increased energy costs• Increased transportation costs• Increased labour costs.• Trade action - from US, Canada, Europe, other.• Competition - i.e., from Vietnam.• Lack of high-level management expertise.• Lack of branding, innovative designs• Other specific constraints by sector….

• Increasing difficulty sourcing competitively priced raw materials.• Increased energy costs• Increased transportation costs• Increased labour costs.• Trade action - from US, Canada, Europe, other.• Competition - i.e., from Vietnam.• Lack of high-level management expertise.• Lack of branding, innovative designs• Other specific constraints by sector….

Constraints Hitting Chinese IndustryConstraints Hitting Chinese Industry

Page 33: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup33

Some Strategies Being ImplementedSome Strategies Being Implemented

To remain competitive, Chinese producers are increasingly:

• Substituting lower quality, lower cost domestic plantation wood for imported solid wood.

• Incorporating newer technology to not only increase product quality but to also to re-engineer the wood, using these alternative raw materials to produce export quality finished wood products at lower costs.

(= this a similar strategy employed by plantation pine exporters in Brazil, Chile and NZ. )

Page 34: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup34

4. China’s Increasing Exports to USA4. China’s Increasing Exports to USA

• China continues to increase its export to high volume, high paying export markets such as the USA.

• Total China Exports of Wood Products to the USA in 2005 (excluding furniture):

= US$2.3 billion

Page 35: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup35

US Imports from ChinaUS Imports from China

Exports of non-furniture wood products are just starting to get rolling = similar growth trend to furniture!!

US Wood Products Imports from China(excluding Furniture)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Source: USDA

(Bill

ions

US$

)

Page 36: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup36

US Imports: China is the #2 Wood Products Supplier to the U.S.*

US Imports: China is the #2 Wood Products Supplier to the U.S.*

*ValueBasis

Note: Excludes Furniture

US Imports of Forest Products

0

5

10

15

20

25

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Source: USDA FAS;

Note:ExcludesFurniture

US$

Bill

ions

OtherSwedenMexicoMalaysiaIndonesiaGermanyChileBrazilChinaCanada

China’s imports growing at 80%/year

Page 37: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup37

US Imports: China’s Commodity Product Growth has been Spectacular!

US Imports: China’s Commodity Product Growth has been Spectacular!

Note: Excludes Furniture

US Selected Wood Products Imports from China

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

00 01 02 03 04 05 Source: USDA

x 00

0 m

3

OTHERSH/W LUMBERPARTICLEBOARDS/W LUMBERS/W PLYWOODHARDBOARDMDFOTHER PANELSH/W PLYWOOD

A 10-fold increase since 2001

Page 38: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup38

US Imports: China’s Finished Product Growth has also been Spectacular!

US Imports: China’s Finished Product Growth has also been Spectacular!

Note: Excludes Furniture

U.S. Imports of Finished Wood Products

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Source: USDA-FAS

US$

x00

0

SOFTWOODFLOORING

HARDWOODFLOORING

BUILDERSCARPENTRY

A 10-fold increase since 2000!

Page 39: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup39

China’s Competitiveness in Export Markets

China’s Competitiveness in Export Markets

A Variety of Chinese

products are assessed &

evaluated in our

CHINA BOOKReport:

Now Available

Chinese Export Product RatingFJ Mouldings |Stile & Rail Doors |Engineered Flooring |Solid Wood Flooring Detailed Laminated Flooring EvaluationSoftwood Sawnwood AvailableSoftwood Plywood in our Hardwood Plywood CHINA OSB BOOKParticleboard |MDF |Engineered Lumber |Source: WOOD Markets Group

Relative Rating of Chinese Products:Basis = Delivered to the U.S. Market

(Scale of 1 = Poor to 5 = Very Good)

Page 40: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup40

5. China’s Increasing Exports to Europe5. China’s Increasing Exports to Europe

Total China Exports of Wood Products to the Europe in 2005 (excluding furniture):

= US$830 million (About 1/3 of the USA)

Page 41: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup41

China’s Imports from Europe = StableChina’s Imports from Europe = Stable

Europe is still exporting logs and lumber to China

China: Imports from Europe

0

50

100

150

200

250

02 03 04 05 Source: CC

Mill

ion

US$ Hardwood

LumberSoftwoodLumberLogs

Page 42: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup42

China’s Exports to Europe = Rising FastChina’s Exports to Europe = Rising Fast

Big increase in furniture and plywood!

China: Exports to Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

02 03 04 05 Source: CC

Mill

ion

US$ Flooring

DoorsParticleboardPlywoodFurniture

Page 43: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup43

China’s Plywood Exports to Europe = Rising

China’s Plywood Exports to Europe = Rising

This is despite a number of publicized trade actions

China: Plywood Exports to Europe

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

02 03 04 05

Source: CC

x000

m3

Page 44: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup44

6. China’s Approach to Business6. China’s Approach to Business

• China's purchasing (procurement) polices are inconsistent - they include some illegal log sources but also a move to buying from sustainable forest managed suppliers.

• Current Chinese Government policy measures (laws, taxes, tariffs, regulations, incentives) are generally open, but restrictive import duties still apply to some countries.

• Still issues on patronage and corruption, but overall, China is doing a good job compared to other ‘developing’ countries.

Page 45: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup45

China is Learning & Improving to be a more Responsible Timber Purchaser!China is Learning & Improving to be a more Responsible Timber Purchaser!

1) China is aggressively encouraging domestic plantation development, with strong supportive policies on capital, taxation, & loans from gov’t. 2) China is Increasing the recovery rate of timber using newer technology and is encouraging the use of other substitute materials to wood.3) China & Myanmar timber trade: After several months of closed border trade to protest illegal log exports from Myanmar, China re-opened its border under new responsible rules. Timber importers in China will start paying an additional 10-15% as reforestation fee that China & Myanmar will share.

Page 46: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup46

China is Learning & Improving to be a more Responsible Timber Purchaser!China is Learning & Improving to be a more Responsible Timber Purchaser!

4) China and Russia timber trade: • More investments in Russia are occurring and

measures are being made to promote legal and healthy timber trade between China and Russia.

• The main projects from China invested in Russia are still logging and primary processing.

• Recently, 18 Chinese wood processing company announcing that they will invest US$100 million in wood processing manufacturing in Sino-Russia zone where located in Ussurisk, Russia. This is the first large scale wood processing zone invested by China in Russia..

Page 47: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup47

China is Learning & Improving to be a more Responsible Timber Purchaser!China is Learning & Improving to be a more Responsible Timber Purchaser!

5) FSC and Chain of Custody certification is accepted by Chinese companies step by step as more and more companies are in processing or considering in getting FSC and COC certification.

6) This partly in response to accusations that of China’s total log imports, some 90% originates in countries without sustainably managed forests or have a record of high illegal log exports.

7) The Chinese government imposed a 5% consumption tax on solid flooring as well as chop sticks from April 1st 2006 in China.

Page 48: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup48

China is Managing its Economy & Natural Resources

China is Managing its Economy & Natural Resources

• Today the urbanization rate in China is 43%, and by 2020, the urbanization in China will be 55% - 60% -this will increase demand in forest/wood products.

• Housing investment and starts has been increasing 20%-30% per year and construction was 6.7% of GDP in 2003, increasing from 4.7% in 1991.

• With the increasing urbanization and living standard, the construction will continue to expand in next 5-10 years, maintaining high demand on construction and decoration.

Page 49: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup49

Potential Constraints or Brakes on China’s Wood Processing Industry Potential Constraints or Brakes on China’s Wood Processing Industry

Less favorable policies and developments may be impacting China’s wood products export sector:

1) Recently, the VAT export rebate has decreased in some products to encourage more value-added & non-solid wood processing & exportsIt is estimated the VAT export rebate of other products, like plywood, will be cancelled or decreased in the coming years. 2) RMB exchange rate is increasing (but slowly).3) Labor costs are increasing. 4) Raw material costs are escalating.

Page 50: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup50

Chinese Government & the EconomyChinese Government & the Economy• The Chinese state remains deeply entrenched in the economy & drives China’s business cycle.• According to official 2003 data, the state directly accounted for 38% of GDP & employed 85 million people (about one third of the urban workforce).• The state controlled $1.2 trillion worth of capital stock = 56% of the country’s fixed industrial assets. • The state is either a monopolist or a dominant player in the most important sectors.• The government maintains tight control over most investment projects via long-term bank credit and in granting land-use rights.

Page 51: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup51

Chinese Government & the EconomyChinese Government & the EconomyPatronage:• Of the large- and medium-sized state enterprises (“corporatized”) in 2001, 70% of Party Committee members were on the board of directors. • All told, 5.3 million party officials—about 8% of its total membership and 16% of its urban members—held executive positions in state enterprises.• State enterprises are also miserably unprofitable: a median rate of return on assets was 1.5% and more than 35% of state enterprises lose money. • Dishonest officials face little risk of punishment as only 5.6%were criminally prosecuted.

Page 52: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup52

Wealth & GovernanceWealth & Governance

• A recent study reports that <1% of Chinese households control 60+% of the country’s wealth.

• By comparison, 5% of the households in the USA own 60% of the wealth).

• According to the World Bank, China’s governance ranks in the bottom half of all the countries in the world. China under-invests in crucial social services, especially education and public health.

• But with a per capita income of nearly $1,500 ($4,500 if you consider people’s purchasing power), China is richer than many poor democracies.

Page 53: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup53

Come see for yourself!

We are Hosting an ‘in-China’ International

Summit Conference &

Tour

Come see for yourself!

We are Hosting an ‘in-China’ International

Summit Conference &

TourShanghai, ChinaOct 28-29, 2006

Mark Your Calendars & Plan to Attend our “3rd Conference” in China

Page 54: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup54

5. China Competitiveness Summary5. China Competitiveness Summary• Increased imports of raw material required: from North American, South American, Southeast Asia, Europe, Russia, etc.

• Rising raw material costs = a growing problem for some Chinese regions or sectors.

• Energy, oil, transport costs could squeeze costs further.

• Chinese are offsetting high raw material costs two ways:

• Using more domestic plantation species at lower costs;

• Incorporating more technology to engineer products and lower raw material input costs.

• China will continue to expand its exports where it can gain or maintain its competitive advantage & market access.

• Chinese “government financing” + government interest to create jobs = creating a formidable competitor…

Page 55: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

WOOD MARKETSGroup55

China SummaryChina Summary• Will continue to be “the world’s engine of production” for a variety of commodity and value-added products

• Determining the “fit” with China is the key for many industries and companies.

= if you can’t beat ‘em, then join ‘em!

• If China (or Russia) “hiccup”, then look out for huge supply/demand dislocatons/opportunities!

• If they continue to both expand, then they will be both be formidable competitors.

Page 56: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

International WOOD MARKETS Group Inc.Vancouver, B.C., Canada

THANK YOU!

QUESTIONS??

Suite 501 - 570 Granville StreetVancouver, BC V6C 3P1

Tel: (604) 801-5996 / Fax: (604) 801-5997Email: [email protected]

www.woodmarkets.com

Page 57: China’s Industry & Market: Growing Impact on the World · Presentation Outline Introduction to WOOD MARKETS Group 1. China’s Role in Global Trade 2. Russia’s Fit with China

President

&Jane Guo

China Office Manager

International WOOD MARKETS Group Inc.Vancouver, B.C., Canada

Russell E. Taylor, RPF, MBA

Suite 501 - 570 Granville StreetVancouver, BC V6C 3P1

Tel: (604) 801-5996 or -5998 / Fax: (604) 801-5997Email: [email protected]

www.woodmarkets.com