christopher m. fuhrmann, ross p. connolly, charles e. konrad ii noaa-southeast regional climate...
TRANSCRIPT
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Christopher M. Fuhrmann,Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Ross P. Connolly, Charles E. Konrad IIRoss P. Connolly, Charles E. Konrad II
NOAA-Southeast Regional Climate CenterNOAA-Southeast Regional Climate CenterGeography DepartmentGeography Department
University of North Carolina at Chapel HillUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Carolinas-Virginia Conference, NWS-Wilmington Office, 20 October 2009Carolinas-Virginia Conference, NWS-Wilmington Office, 20 October 2009
Winter Storms: An Overlooked Source of Death, Destruction, Winter Storms: An Overlooked Source of Death, Destruction, and Inconvenience in the Carolina Piedmont Regionand Inconvenience in the Carolina Piedmont Region
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Insured losses from winter storms by climate district, 1949-2003
(Changnon, S.A., 2007: Catastrophic winter storms: An escalating problem. Climatic Change, 84, 131-139, Figure 4)
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Objectives of this presentation:
• Provide an overview of the range of societal impacts associated with different types and intensities of winter storms at two locations within the Carolina Piedmont region
• Provide examples of how minor winter storms (meteorologically speaking) result in significant societal impacts
• Put forth recommendations for future work and follow-up studies
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Study Area: The Carolina PiedmontRaleigh-Durham, NC (RDU) and Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (GSP)
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RDU (n = 35) GSP (n = 32)
Blue = bottom quartile*
Red = top quartile*
A good representation of light moderate, and heavy events
A good representation of ice storms, snow storms, and winter storms
Winter Storms at RDU and GSP from 1995-2007
Utilized Storm Data entries and online newspaper databases:- Raleigh News & Observer, Durham Herald Sun, Spartanburg Herald Sun
Began searching the archives 3 days before the event and ended when no mention of the storm or its impacts for at least 2 consecutive days
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Winter Storm
Meteorology
Social/Individual Factors
Utilities
BusinessCommerce
IndustryTransportation
School ClosingsDelays
DeathsInjuries
EmergencyManagementGovernment
PerceptionsDecisions
Climatology
PropertyDamage
Insured Losses
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School Closings and Delays
• A high percentage (78%) of storms examined in this study affected public (K-12) school schedules
• Most cancelations lasted one day, but there were notable exceptions
• According to newspaper reports in the RDU area, colleges and universities were more likely to remain in session or cancel only early morning classes, even if K-12 schools had already canceled
• Public transportation
• Numerous reports of university classes being held despite hazardous driving conditions and power outages
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1
9 6
4
3
2
578
One of the more intriguing results was the difference in perceived coordination among school districts between RDU and GSP
Spartanburg Co. School Districts
• 5 Feb 1996: Districts 1 and 2 operate on a 1-hour delay; District 3 operates on a 2-hour delay; remaining districts operate normally
• 16 Feb 1996: Districts 1 and 2 cancel classes at 9am; District 3 cancels at 9:30am; remaining districts cancel by 11am “to avoid confusion”
• 5 Jan 1999: Districts 1, 2, 3, and 7 operate on a 2-hour delay; remaining districts operate normally
• 26 Jan 2004: Districts 3 and 4 operate on a 2-hour delay; District 6 operates on a 1-hour delay; remaining districts operate normally
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Impacts on Utilities
• Accurate information on power outages is extremely difficult to obtain through newspaper and Storm Data records
• Newspaper reports typically cited felled trees on electrical wires as the cause of most power outages
• Issues to consider: trees that are predisposed to damage; prevention/mitigation through aggressive tree “trimming”
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The power is restored
Power companies are NOT responsible for repairing
weatherheads and insulators, which are often damaged when
power lines fall
From Call, D.A., 2007: An analysis of ice storm impacts, warnings, and emergency management response. Doctoral Dissertation, Department of Geography, Syracuse University (Figure 2.5)
…….or is it?
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Impacts on Transportation
• NC Highway Patrol: call volume over a 24-hr period can more than double during a winter storm compared to a normal 24-hr period
• Most accident calls made during and immediately after the period when precipitation is heaviest (often during the early stages of a storm)
• Different types of roadways are impacted in different ways by winter storms
• Highways and Interstates
• Major arterial/connector roads
• Secondary/local roads and bridges
• Temperature is critical
• How effective is pre-treatment?
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Deaths Due to Winter Storms
n = 43
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Under What Circumstances Do Minor Events Have Significant Societal Impacts?
• Three unique events are highlighted in this presentation:
• “Bad Timing” 29-30 January 1995 (< 0.1” of freezing rain and sleet at RDU)
• “Gridlock Wednesday” 19 January 2005 (~1” of snow at RDU)
• “Frozen Peaches” 9-10 March 1999 (2-3” of wintry mix at GSP)
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“Bad Timing”
• Forecast: mostly rain throughout the day on the 29th and early morning of the 30th; brief transition to FZRA and sleet expected late-morning (10-11 LST); only trace amounts on cold ground; otherwise little accumulation expected due to warm surface temperatures
• NWS Raleigh issues Winter Storm Advisory; In response, Wake County filled over a dozen trucks with salt and sand
• What happened: Freezing precipitation began earlier than expected, at the height of the morning rush (07-09 LST); traffic already on the roads made it difficult for trucks to treat them
• Impacts: Nearly 100 accidents in the RDU area on major roadways and highways; two were fatal; accidents and congested roadways forced many businesses, government offices, and some school systems to close
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“Gridlock Wednesday”
• A quick burst of snowfall in the RDU area lead to the early release of businesses and schools around mid-day on 19 January; however, A combination of human and meteorological factors turned this minor event into an infamous one
• Quick burst of snow + very cold surface and air temperature = large, dry snowflakes
• Simultaneous closure of business and schools = “Super Rush” (Call 2007)
• Even with gridlock on the roads, a large number of accidents (some serious) were reported due to cars skidding and sliding
• Theory posed by the NWS Raleigh Office:• Snowflakes partially melt due to heat released
from automobile exhaust• The resulting slush became compacted from
slow-moving traffic• Cold ground and air temperatures caused
compacted slush to freeze into thin layer of ice
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“Frozen Peaches”
• Light snow began falling in the SC Upstate in the early morning hours of 9 March 1999, transitioning to a wintry mix which lasted until late-morning
• Closure of schools made it one of the latest snow days in recent memory
• One of the biggest concerns with this event – the budding peach crop
• Early March – peach crop transitions from tight bud to breaking bud (susceptible to damage from cold temperatures and freezing precipitation)
• Delay in planting in late fall 1998 prevented major damage (potential to cost millions!)
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Recommendations and Future Work
• Determine how municipalities (as well as rural communities) can better prepare for and respond to winter storms
• Determine if the policies currently in place are sufficient in handling school closings and delays in a safe and efficient manner
• Assess the effectiveness of chemical solutions currently used to treat roadways
• Assess whether media coverage of roadway treatment before an event is providing motorists with a false sense of security
• Assess whether media outlets are providing sufficient warning of the dangers of carbon monoxide poisoning, as well as other environmental hazards
• Assess how communication between power companies and customers can be improved; are power companies relaying accurate information to their customers?
• Assess whether aggressive tree-trimming helps in mitigating the number and duration of power outages