cics 09 september 2010 1 william. m. lapenta deputy director environmental modeling center...

1CICS 09 September 2010

William. M. LapentaDeputy Director

Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA/NWS/NCEP

With contributions from Many EMC Staff

NCEP

Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center


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Presentation Outline

• EMC Mission and Organization

• The NCEP Model Production Suite– Global Forecast (+ Ensemble) & Data Assimilation

System– Global Coupled Climate Forecast System– CONUS Mesoscale Model Systems

• Short Range Ensemble System • Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model• Rapid Update Cycle• Convergence through FY13

– Real-time Ocean Forecasting – Hurricane Forecasting

• Transition of research to operations


The National Centers for Environmental Prediction

CPC

HPC

SPC

SWPC

AWC

OPC

NHC

NCO

EMC


The EMC Mission…..

Develop and Enhance numerical guidance– Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model

systems via:• Scientific upgrades• Optimization• Additional observations

Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations

– Transform & integrate • Code• Algorithms• Techniques

– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation

Maintain operational model suite– The scientific correctness and integrity of

operational forecast modeling systems– Modify current operational system to adapt to

ever-present external changes

EMC location within the funnel

In response to operational requirements:

45%

25%

30%


Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

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HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

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MonthsMonths

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YearsYears

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

NCEP Model Perspective

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itim

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Life

& P

rope

rty

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Eco

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em

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iron

men

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men

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erge

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ncy

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icul

ture

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icul

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ontr

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rgy

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nnin

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•North American Ensemble Forecast System

•Climate Forecast System

•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

•Land Surface•Ocean•Waves•Tropical Cyclone

•Global Forecast System

•North American Mesoscale

•Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

•Dispersion Models for DHS

-GFDL -HWRF

•Global Ensemble Forecast System


Supercomputing at NCEP

IBM Power6 p575– 69.7 Teraflops Linpack

– 156 Power6 32-way Nodes

– 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz

– 19,712 GB memory

– 320 TB of disk space per system

– 13 PB tape archive

Cirrus— (backup)

Stratus— (primary)


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Node use for 20091202

Production Suite on Supercomputer

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dev

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para

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misc

cdc

dgex

aqm

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September 2009

Development Work


Production Suite on Supercomputer

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July 2010

Missing Data

Development Work


Global Forecast System (GFS)

Horizontal RepresentationSpectral (spherical harmonic basis functions) with transformation to a Gaussian grid for calculation of nonlinear quantities and physics.

Vertical RepresentationSigma coordinate. Lorenz grid. Quadratic-conserving finite difference scheme by Arakawa and Mintz (1974).

Vertical Resolution64 unequally-spaced sigma levels. For a surface pressure of 1000 hPa, 15 levels are below 800 hPa, and 24 levels are above 100 hPa.

• 4 Cycles per day• T574 (~28km) to 7.5 days• T190 (~70km) to 16 days


• Data Assimilation (Implemented 17 December 2009)– Assimilate:

• NOAA-19 AMSU-A/B, HIRS• RARS 1b data• NOAA-18 SBUV/2 and OMI

– Improved use of GPS RO observations• Refractivity forward operator • Allow more observations, in particular in the tropical latitudes, due to better QC checks for

COSMIC data• Better QC procedures Metop/GRAS, GRACE-A and CHAMP

• Upgrade implemented 28 July 2010– Increase horizontal resolution

• T382 (35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L for 0 to 192hr forecast• Remains T190 (~70km) & 64L for 192-384 hr forecast

– Upgrade GFS physics (Radiation, shallow/deep convection and PBL)• Modified SW and LW radiation calculations (aerosol effects, co2, cloud interaction)• Detrainment from all levels (deep convection)• Testing at low resolution shows reduction in high precipitation bias• PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus)• Includes gravity wave drag (effect of topography)

GSI 3D-VAR/GFS Plans for FY10


• Modify GFS shallow/deep convection and PBL– Detrainment from all levels (deep convection)– PBL diffusion in inversion layers reduced (decrease erosion of marine stratus)

• GSI/GFS Resolution– T382 (~35km) to T574 (~28km) & 64L

GFS Plans for FY10 Implemented 28 July 2010

Updated GFS physics package eliminates grid-point precipitation “bombs”

Observed Operational GFS Upgraded Physics GFS

24 h accumulated precip ending 12 UTC 14 July 2009


GFS Upgrade Atlantic Hurricane Track Error2008 Hurricane Season

2008 Operational – BlueDecember GFS Package – RedT574 with upgraded Physics - Green


GFS Upgrade EPAC Hurricane Track Error2008 Hurricane Season

32% Improvementover 2008 Prod

25% Improvementover 1Q10 Prod

2008 Operational – BlueDecember GFS Package – RedT574 with upgraded Physics - Green


Upgraded GFS 500mb AC Days 0-9NH for August 2010

“The medium range HPC map discussion lead showed the NH 500 and > 1000 dieoff curves for August and said they now often prefer the GFS to > ECMWF, not only over North America but also in the tropics”

EC > GFS

EC < GFS


Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)Implemented February 2010

• Upgrades:– Increase horizontal resolution from T126 (~90km) to T190 (~70km)– 4 cycles per day, 20+1 members per cycle– Forecast duration to 384 hours (16 days)

• Use 8th order horizontal diffusion & stochastic perturbation scheme to account for random model errors – improve forecast skill– Increase ensemble spread and forecast skill (reliability)

• Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for GEFS– Version 3.1.0rp2– Allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members– Needed for efficiency of stochastic perturbation scheme

• Add new variables (27 more) to pgrba files– Based on user request– From current 52 (variables) to future 79 (variables) – For NAEFS ensemble data exchange


NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa HeightPeriod: August 1st – September 30th 2007

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Forecast Lead Time (days)

GFS GEFS GEFSg

GEFSg extends skillful forecast (60%) for 9+ days

24 hours better than previsou GEFS

48 hours better than current GFS


North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

• Collaboration between NCEP, Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC), FNMOC and Mexico Weather Service

– Elements: • Demonstrate value of Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) • Engage in collaborative software development, focused on postprocessing products

from an arbitrary number of forecast systems• Establish operational data transfer• Application to operational products with shared software• Continue to monitor value-added with MME strategy

• Global ensemble products– NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

• operational in NAEFS• 20 members -16 days

– CMC• operational in NAEFS• 20 members - 16 days

– FNMOC• Currently experimental in NAEFS

– 16 members, 10 days, 52 variables• Final evaluation of upgraded FNMOC ensemble system

– 20 members, 16 days and 73 variables


Raw NCEP

NAEFS + FNMOCStat. corr.

NAEFS

Combined NCEP – CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d)

Addition of FNMOC to NAEFS leads to modest improvement (6.7d)

Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d)

Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d)

0.5 CRPS skill

Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP’s evaluation, 4 of 4)

Value-added by including FNMOC ensembleinto NAEFS 2m Temperature


Attribute Operational Configuration Q1FY11 Configuration

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels

Humidity based clouds

100 km/64 levels

Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation

Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking

Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model

GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6)

Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned Upgrade for Q1FY11


Climate Forecast System (CFS V.2) System

Two essential components:

Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, seaice and land over the 31-year period (1979-2009) is required to provide consistent initial

conditions for:

A complete Reforecast of the new CFS over the 28-year period (1982-2009), in order to provide stable calibration and skill

estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal prediction at NCEP

Total = 6351 + 1620 + 1476 = 9447 years. • 9 month (interannual)• 4 month (seasonal)• 45 day (monthly)


Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global)

– Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using

• Daily initialization from NAVO.• GFS forcing.• Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin-

up.

– NCO parallel to start FY2010Q4.• Establish reliability of NAVO data

feed.• Establish compatibility of NCEP

and Navy forcing.• Develop products with customers.

– Full data on NOMADS.

– Become operational in FY2011Q4

Example surface currents from MMAB parallel


High risk to fit into ops; parallel does not fit on ops computer3GEFS

Comms issues being resolved; aggressive schedule1NAEFS FNMOC

Parallel does not fit on ops computer; human resource?2GSI upgrade

Minimal risk if GDAS/SREF resource overlap can be mitigated; parallel does not fit on ops computer

3SREF

Human resource constraint issue (catch ups from FY10)1HRW

ENLIL space wx

Rapid Refresh

Wave Model

GFDL

HWRF

NAMNEMS (NMMB)

Global HYCOM

CFS V2.0

System

Not evaluated for risk4

Moderate risk depending on what goes in before this package in Q22

Minimal risk2

Minimal risk as long as upgrade is resource neutral2


Elevated risk due to system constraints (parallel runs above operational node ceiling)

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Possible Q4FY10 parallel; minimal risk if implemented in a “valley”1, 4

Minimal risk due to Q1 timing; consumes 18 nodes1

CommentsQuarter

High risk to fit into ops; parallel does not fit on ops computer3GEFS

Comms issues being resolved; aggressive schedule1NAEFS FNMOC

Parallel does not fit on ops computer; human resource?2GSI upgrade

Minimal risk if GDAS/SREF resource overlap can be mitigated; parallel does not fit on ops computer

3SREF

Human resource constraint issue (catch ups from FY10)1HRW

ENLIL space wx

Rapid Refresh

Wave Model

GFDL

HWRF

NAMNEMS (NMMB)

Global HYCOM

CFS V2.0

System

Not evaluated for risk4

Moderate risk depending on what goes in before this package in Q22

Minimal risk2



Elevated risk due to system constraints (parallel runs above operational node ceiling)

2

Possible Q4FY10 parallel; minimal risk if implemented in a “valley”1, 4

Minimal risk due to Q1 timing; consumes 18 nodes1

CommentsQuarter

FY11 Major System ImplementationsResult of joint NCO-EMC planning process (Starosta, Cary, and staff)


Mapping Testbeds Into the EMC Organizational Structure

EMC Team/Branch JHT CTB HWT HMT AWC DTC JCSDA OSSE OPG

Global Weather and Climate X X X XMesoscale X X X X XMarine XClimate XData Assimilation X X X X X XHurricanes X XLand Surface X X X XEnsembles X X X X X

Alignment between testbed and NCEP/EMC missions is critical to success

Some testbeds are able to provide support to NCEP staff to participate

Land surface modeling team has been very successful working with NOAA/CPO outside the testbed system

Data assimilation team is a core NCEP infrastructure


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Thanks for your attention.

Questions?


NOMADS Update Real-time Server supported

24x7 by NCEP & WOC

Ability to “slice and dice” by domain, resolution, variable, ensemble membership

Access to NCEP’s operational data sets as they are being generated

Short-term archive ~ month

Geographically-diverse backup server to ensure operational availability

Quarterly updates expected between NCO & EMC

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cics 09 september 2010 1 william. m. lapenta deputy director environmental modeling center...

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