cidb sme business conditions survey 4th quarter 2019 sme... · the western cape. on the upside, the...
TRANSCRIPT
cidb - S
ME Busin
ess Conditio
ns Surve
y
Quarter 2019
i
Editor: Mia Slabber
Email: [email protected] Tel: +27 21 808 9776
Technical assistance:
Nicolaas van der Wath
© cidb
The Building and Construction Survey is conducted by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) on behalf of the cidb. This publication is confidential and only for the use of the intended recipient. Copyright for this publication is held by the cidb. Although reasonable professional skill, care and diligence are exercised to record and interpret all information correctly, the cidb, Stellenbosch University, its division BER and the author(s)/editor do not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss whatsoever that might result from unintentional inaccurate data and interpretations provided by the BER as well as any interpretations by third parties. cidb and Stellenbosch University further accepts no liability for the consequences of any decisions or actions taken by any third party on the basis of information provided in this publication. The views, conclusions or opinions contained in this publication are those of the BER and do not necessarily reflect those of the cidb or Stellenbosch University. For more information on the BER’s services please visit: www.ber.ac.za
ii
Executive summary The 2091Q4 cidb SME Business Conditions Index illustrates continued weakness in the South African building and construction industry. The indicator remained at very depressing levels across the board, although some sub-sectors registered upticks in activity. Discouragingly, the outlook for especially the civil sector does not look promising as demand for new work remains subdued.
General building
In 2019Q4, general building (GB) confidence
declined – from 31 to 28 – as activity growth
remained relatively weak.
The decline in headline confidence was driven by a
sharp drop in confidence among GBs in Grades
3 & 4 (-10). Although Grades 5 & 6 and 7 & 8
registered improvements in sentiment, the
indicator was still at very low levels of 31 and 23
respectively.
Provincially, confidence improved in Gauteng and
the Western Cape. On the upside, the outlook for
Gauteng looks promising as demand for new
building work is picking up. The drop in confidence
in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal was
underpinned by continued weakness in activity
growth.
Civil engineering
Although civil engineering (CE) registered an
improvement from an all-time low of 26 to 29,
confidence was still well below the long-term
average. Furthermore, the drop in the smoothed
activity indicator suggests that construction activity
remained under tremendous pressure.
Activity growth was relatively weak across all the
grades. In fact, the smoothed activity indicator for
Grades 5 & 6 was at its worst level on record.
Furthermore, the rating of insufficient demand for
construction work increased to record highs for both
Grades 3 & 4 and 5 & 6.
Gauteng was the only province that registered an
improvement in activity. For all the other provinces,
the smoothed activity indicator deteriorated to all-
time lows.
iii
Contents Summary of the 2019Q4 results ............................................................................................... 1
General Building (GB) ......................................................................................................... 1
Civil Engineering ................................................................................................................ 4
In conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 7
Survey results ........................................................................................................................ 8
General Building: Total ........................................................................................................ 8
General Building: Grade 3 & 4 ............................................................................................ 10
General Building: Grade 5 & 6 ............................................................................................ 11
General Building: Grade 7 & 8 ............................................................................................ 12
General Building: Western Cape ......................................................................................... 13
General Building: Eastern Cape .......................................................................................... 14
General Building: KwaZulu-Natal ........................................................................................ 15
General Building: Gauteng ................................................................................................. 16
Civil Engineering: Total ..................................................................................................... 17
Civil Engineering: Grade 3 & 4 ............................................................................................ 18
Civil Engineering: Grade 5 & 6 ............................................................................................ 19
Civil Engineering: Grade 7 & 8 ............................................................................................ 20
Civil Engineering: Western Cape ......................................................................................... 21
Civil Engineering: Eastern Cape .......................................................................................... 22
Civil Engineering: KwaZulu-Natal ........................................................................................ 23
Civil Engineering: Gauteng................................................................................................. 24
Summary ........................................................................................................................ 25
Technical note ...................................................................................................................... 26
The survey method ........................................................................................................... 26
The unique units of measurement of qualitative surveys ........................................................ 27
Descriptive statistics in the tables ....................................................................................... 28
Conventions and aids provided in the charts ......................................................................... 29
1
Summary of the 2019Q41 results
GB sentiment
continued its
downward trend
General Building (GB)
With the exception of a few marginal upticks, general building (GB) confidence has
been trending downwards since the beginning of 2017 (see Figure 1). In 2019Q4,
building confidence declined once more – from 31 to 28 index points. This marks
its worst level in eight years.
Figure 1: General builders business confidence
Source: BER
Building activity
remained under
pressure
At a net negative 55%, the smoothed activity indicator remained unchanged at a
level worse than its long-term average (negative 40%). This suggests that building
activity growth was still relatively weak in the fourth quarter.
1 The survey was conducted between 14 October and 18 November 2019 among cidb contractors in Grades 3 – 8. This is in contrast to the BER Building and Construction survey that also includes Grade 9 contractors.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
Business cycle downturn Confidence
2
Grades 3 & 4
registered a
sharp drop in
confidence
Grades comparison
The drop in the headline results was driven by a deterioration in sentiment among
GBs in Grades 3 & 4, where confidence declined by 10 index points. At 30,
business confidence is less than one standard deviation below the long-term
average of 43. This implies that GBs in Grades 3 & 4 are in fact very pessimistic.
Although Grades 5 & 6 and Grades 7 & 8 registered marginal improvements,
confidence remained at very depressing levels of 31 and 23 respectively.
Regardless of the movements, Figure 2 suggests that activity growth remained
under pressure, especially among Grades 5 & 6.
Activity among
Grades 5 & 6
under
tremendous
pressure
Figure 2: Activity per grade (smoothed)
Source: BER
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %
Gr 3&4 Gr 5&6 Gr 7&8
3
Confidence
improved in
Gauteng and the
Western Cape
Provincial comparison
In the Western Cape, confidence ticked up from 29 to 36. Sentiment improved as
GBs in this province saw an uptick in activity (see Figure 3).
For the second consecutive quarter, Gauteng registered an increase in confidence,
from 42 to a four-year high of 57 index points. A sharp decline in the rating of
insufficient demand for new building work as a constraint – from 83% to 57% -
further supports the improvement in sentiment. This might suggest some
momentum in building activity growth going forward.
Figure 3: Activity by province (smoothed)
Source: BER
Eastern Cape and
KwaZulu-Natal
confidence down
in the doldrums
In the Eastern Cape, all of the respondents were dissatisfied with current business
conditions and in KwaZulu-Natal confidence declined to a nine-year low of 8 index
points. For both these provinces, the smoothed activity indicator moved sideways
at very depressing levels (see Figure 3).
‐90
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %
WC EC KZN GP
4
CE confidence
improved
marginally, but
underlying
indicators remain
weak
Civil Engineering
Civil Engineering (CE) confidence ticked up from an all-time low of 26 to 29 index
points. Despite the marginal improvement in sentiment, activity remained under
pressure. Indeed, the smoothed activity indicator deteriorated from a net negative
58% to 61%.
Discouragingly, the outlook for construction activity growth does not look
promising. Respondents who found insufficient demand for construction work as a
constraint increased to a record high of 83%.
Figure 4: Total civil confidence
Source: BER
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
Business cycle downturn Confidence
5
Outlook for
Grades 3 & 4 and
5 & 6 remains
bleak
Grades comparison
Grades 7 & 8 were the only grades that registered a drop in confidence, from 36
to 25 index points.
Although confidence among Grades 3 & 4 recovered from an all-time low of 16 to
33, the smoothed activity indicator suggests that construction activity remained
relatively weak (see Figure 5). Furthermore, the rating of insufficient demand for
construction work ticked up to a record high of 89% of respondents.
For CEs in Grades 5 & 6, confidence remained largely unchanged at a depressing
level of 29 index points. Furthermore, the smoothed activity indicator deteriorated
to its worst level on record – from a net negative 59% to 69% (see Figure 5).
Respondents who cited the lack of new work as a business constraint increased to
an all-time high of 91%.
Figure 5: Civil construction activity per grade (smoothed)
Source: BER
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %
Gr 3&4 Gr 5&6 Gr 7&8
6
Gauteng only
province where
activity ticked up
Provincial comparison
Similar to GBs, both Gauteng and the Western Cape registered notable
improvements in sentiment. In Gauteng, business confidence increased by 14
index points to 50. This was also the only province where we saw an improvement
in activity (see Figure 6).
Figure 6: Activity by province (smoothed)
Source: BER
Uptick in WC
confidence not
supported by
underlying
indicators
In the Western Cape, confidence ticked up from an all-time low of 9 to 20 index
points. Despite the increase, business confidence is still at less than one standard
deviation below the long-term average of 44. Furthermore, the smoothed activity
indicator is at its worst level on record and the rating of insufficient demand for
construction work as a constraint is at an all-time high of 91%. All-in-all, this
suggests that CEs in the Western Cape remain under tremendous pressure.
CEs in the Eastern Cape registered a marginal improvement in confidence, from
14 to 17 index points. In KwaZulu-Natal, sentiment deteriorated to a historic low
of 11 index points, from 20 previously. In both these provinces, the smoothed
activity indicator is at its worst levels on record (see Figure 6).
‐100
‐80
‐60
‐40
‐20
0
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %
WC EC KZN GP
7
In conclusion The 2019Q4 cidb SME Conditions Survey suggests that the South African building and construction industry remains under tremendous pressure. With the exception of a few green shoots, most notably in Gauteng, the weakness continues to be broad-based.
GB continued the downward trend in confidence that started at the beginning of 2017. Although CE registered a marginal improvement in sentiment, activity growth remained relatively weak. Discouragingly, the number of CEs that cited the lack of new work as a business constraint ticked up to its highest level on record. This suggests that the construction industry will most likely continue to struggle in the near future.
8
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Survey results General Building: Total2
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 30 39 48 36 33 30 34 33 30 31 28 ‐3 11
Activity Net % ‐53 ‐40 ‐26 ‐43 ‐42 ‐37 ‐45 ‐51 ‐57 ‐62 ‐47 15 11
Smoothed Net % ‐52 ‐40 ‐28 ‐46 ‐41 ‐41 ‐44 ‐51 ‐57 ‐55 ‐55 0 5
Tendering competition Net % 35 46 56 47 45 43 52 43 36 26 51 25 12
Smoothed Net % 37 46 54 47 45 47 46 44 35 38 39 1 4
Insufficient demand % 66 73 79 73 74 75 82 72 72 75 72 ‐3 10
2 Combined building activity of contractors and sub-contractors.
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
9
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: Total
‐90
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity by province (smoothed)
WC EC KZN GP
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity by grade (smoothed)
Gr 3&4 Gr 5&6 Gr 7&8
10
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: Grade 3 & 4
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 32 43 55 38 29 28 26 40 30 40 30 ‐10 16
Activity Net % ‐54 ‐38 ‐23 ‐64 ‐50 ‐56 ‐68 ‐43 ‐46 ‐50 ‐50 0 19
Smoothed Net % ‐49 ‐38 ‐27 ‐54 ‐57 ‐58 ‐56 ‐52 ‐46 ‐49 ‐50 ‐1 6
Tendering competition Net % 17 31 44 32 20 11 42 38 17 15 30 15 16
Smoothed Net % 21 31 41 25 21 24 30 32 23 21 23 2 5
Insufficient demand % 62 70 78 68 74 78 83 74 67 72 65 ‐7 12
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
11
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: Grade 5 & 6
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 26 37 49 37 37 25 36 32 30 30 31 1 14
Activity Net % ‐60 ‐43 ‐26 ‐43 ‐52 ‐45 ‐37 ‐50 ‐65 ‐74 ‐53 21 17
Smoothed Net % ‐57 ‐43 ‐29 ‐48 ‐47 ‐45 ‐44 ‐51 ‐63 ‐64 ‐64 0 6
Tendering competition Net % 36 51 65 50 48 50 41 40 38 29 62 33 17
Smoothed Net % 39 51 62 51 49 46 44 40 36 43 46 3 5
Insufficient demand % 65 72 80 69 74 73 74 66 71 76 72 ‐4 11
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
12
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: Grade 7 & 8
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 22 34 46 32 32 37 40 23 29 18 23 5 15
Activity Net % ‐61 ‐38 ‐15 ‐20 ‐21 ‐11 ‐35 ‐67 ‐56 ‐56 ‐38 18 21
Smoothed Net % ‐57 ‐38 ‐19 ‐37 ‐17 ‐22 ‐38 ‐53 ‐60 ‐50 ‐47 3 9
Tendering competition Net % 41 57 73 56 68 63 75 58 61 44 55 11 19
Smoothed Net % 44 57 70 67 62 69 65 65 54 53 50 ‐3 6
Insufficient demand % 67 77 86 84 74 76 90 81 81 78 77 ‐1 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
13
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: Western Cape
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 21 39 57 54 56 31 26 27 32 29 36 7 16
Activity Net % ‐59 ‐33 ‐7 ‐27 ‐33 ‐31 ‐52 ‐27 ‐68 ‐64 ‐18 46 25
Smoothed Net % ‐55 ‐33 ‐11 ‐34 ‐30 ‐39 ‐37 ‐49 ‐53 ‐50 ‐41 9 9
Tendering competition Net % 42 58 74 72 69 69 65 60 84 64 64 0 16
Smoothed Net % 45 58 72 64 70 68 65 70 69 71 64 ‐7 6
Insufficient demand % 63 74 84 63 78 81 84 73 76 71 73 2 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐90
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
14
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: Eastern Cape
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 21 32 43 29 29 25 17 29 33 20 0 ‐20 13
Activity Net % ‐70 ‐48 ‐26 ‐40 ‐43 ‐43 ‐83 ‐100 ‐67 ‐25 ‐100 ‐75 26
Smoothed Net % ‐64 ‐48 ‐32 ‐43 ‐42 ‐56 ‐75 ‐83 ‐64 ‐64 ‐63 1 9
Tendering competition Net % 20 48 77 33 ‐14 12 ‐17 33 ‐33 0 33 33 28
Smoothed Net % 24 48 72 22 10 ‐6 9 ‐6 0 0 17 17 10
Insufficient demand % 66 77 89 67 79 69 83 93 61 70 100 30 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐120
‐100
‐80
‐60
‐40
‐20
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
15
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: KwaZulu-Natal
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 20 34 49 30 26 15 10 19 27 29 8 ‐21 15
Activity Net % ‐63 ‐42 ‐20 ‐52 ‐42 ‐38 ‐67 ‐56 ‐57 ‐53 ‐58 ‐5 19
Smoothed Net % ‐59 ‐42 ‐24 ‐51 ‐44 ‐49 ‐54 ‐60 ‐55 ‐56 ‐56 0 8
Tendering competition Net % 22 38 55 43 50 40 25 29 39 0 58 58 17
Smoothed Net % 24 38 52 44 44 38 31 31 23 32 29 ‐3 5
Insufficient demand % 64 73 81 81 71 77 88 68 74 69 77 8 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
16
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
General Building: Gauteng
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 22 35 48 32 12 27 47 44 19 42 57 15 17
Activity Net % ‐60 ‐41 ‐23 ‐37 ‐38 ‐40 ‐24 ‐44 ‐43 ‐77 ‐29 48 22
Smoothed Net % ‐55 ‐41 ‐28 ‐49 ‐38 ‐34 ‐36 ‐37 ‐55 ‐50 ‐53 ‐3 8
Tendering competition Net % 25 42 60 26 38 27 71 44 27 8 71 63 23
Smoothed Net % 31 42 54 40 30 45 47 47 26 35 40 5 8
Insufficient demand % 64 73 82 74 75 77 79 78 73 83 57 ‐26 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐90
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
17
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: Total
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 32 41 50 36 32 27 35 31 26 26 29 3 12
Activity Net % ‐56 ‐40 ‐24 ‐52 ‐49 ‐66 ‐66 ‐58 ‐53 ‐62 ‐60 2 9
Smoothed Net % ‐55 ‐40 ‐26 ‐51 ‐56 ‐60 ‐63 ‐59 ‐58 ‐58 ‐61 ‐3 5
Tendering competition Net % 40 48 55 41 37 49 54 52 51 37 57 20 10
Smoothed Net % 41 47 53 41 42 47 52 52 47 48 47 ‐1 3
Insufficient demand % 66 72 78 68 71 77 75 78 76 77 83 6 9
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
‐100
‐80
‐60
‐40
‐20
0
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity by province (smoothed)
WC EC KZN GP
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity by grade (smoothed)
Gr 3&4 Gr 5&6 Gr 7&8
18
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: Grade 3 & 4
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 31 42 54 40 33 44 47 46 33 16 33 17 15
Activity Net % ‐58 ‐41 ‐24 ‐60 ‐44 ‐44 ‐73 ‐54 ‐56 ‐63 ‐56 7 19
Smoothed Net % ‐54 ‐41 ‐29 ‐49 ‐49 ‐54 ‐57 ‐61 ‐58 ‐58 ‐60 ‐2 6
Tendering competition Net % 3 19 34 ‐12 ‐5 22 0 33 22 ‐6 33 39 21
Smoothed Net % 9 18 28 2 2 6 18 18 16 16 14 ‐2 6
Insufficient demand % 62 69 76 64 64 62 77 65 61 79 89 10 12
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
19
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: Grade 5 & 6
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 33 42 51 41 41 25 36 33 32 28 29 1 13
Activity Net % ‐55 ‐41 ‐26 ‐49 ‐43 ‐59 ‐58 ‐56 ‐41 ‐64 ‐71 ‐7 13
Smoothed Net % ‐52 ‐41 ‐29 ‐49 ‐50 ‐53 ‐58 ‐52 ‐54 ‐59 ‐68 ‐9 5
Tendering competition Net % 43 52 61 44 43 44 64 56 45 52 65 13 13
Smoothed Net % 45 52 59 42 44 50 55 55 51 54 59 5 4
Insufficient demand % 66 73 80 65 71 77 76 81 77 74 91 17 11
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
20
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: Grade 7 & 8
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 23 38 53 30 21 15 27 20 18 36 25 ‐11 17
Activity Net % ‐66 ‐39 ‐13 ‐49 ‐59 ‐95 ‐68 ‐64 ‐64 ‐57 ‐50 7 16
Smoothed Net % ‐63 ‐39 ‐15 ‐57 ‐68 ‐74 ‐76 ‐65 ‐62 ‐57 ‐54 3 8
Tendering competition Net % 53 66 79 74 65 80 71 56 68 64 62 ‐2 15
Smoothed Net % 56 66 76 70 73 72 69 65 63 65 63 ‐2 4
Insufficient demand % 64 74 83 74 77 90 74 82 82 79 72 ‐7 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐100
‐80
‐60
‐40
‐20
0
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
21
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: Western Cape
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 27 44 61 39 33 21 47 27 18 9 20 11 19
Activity Net % ‐64 ‐37 ‐10 ‐50 ‐58 ‐79 ‐56 ‐47 ‐64 ‐82 ‐90 ‐8 22
Smoothed Net % ‐61 ‐37 ‐13 ‐48 ‐62 ‐64 ‐61 ‐56 ‐64 ‐79 ‐86 ‐7 8
Tendering competition Net % 45 63 81 72 75 86 89 67 73 73 90 17 17
Smoothed Net % 48 63 78 74 78 83 81 76 71 79 82 3 6
Insufficient demand % 61 72 83 69 71 86 78 87 77 86 90 4 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐100
‐80
‐60
‐40
‐20
0
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
22
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: Eastern Cape
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 20 38 56 36 25 22 25 0 33 14 17 3 22
Activity Net % ‐62 ‐38 ‐13 ‐57 ‐38 ‐56 0 ‐80 ‐67 ‐71 ‐83 ‐12 27
Smoothed Net % ‐57 ‐38 ‐19 ‐45 ‐50 ‐31 ‐45 ‐49 ‐73 ‐74 ‐77 ‐3 9
Tendering competition Net % 34 52 70 57 62 44 50 60 33 57 33 ‐24 22
Smoothed Net % 37 52 66 53 54 52 51 48 50 41 45 4 6
Insufficient demand % 65 76 87 64 81 83 75 100 83 93 92 ‐1 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐90
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
23
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: KwaZulu-Natal
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 28 42 57 33 25 18 19 20 20 20 11 ‐9 17
Activity Net % ‐71 ‐46 ‐22 ‐67 ‐65 ‐76 ‐93 ‐90 ‐80 ‐87 ‐89 ‐2 16
Smoothed Net % ‐68 ‐46 ‐25 ‐70 ‐69 ‐78 ‐86 ‐88 ‐86 ‐85 ‐88 ‐3 7
Tendering competition Net % 31 47 63 59 18 29 47 44 90 20 67 47 24
Smoothed Net % 36 47 57 31 35 31 40 60 51 59 44 ‐15 7
Insufficient demand % 64 72 80 72 78 82 77 75 75 90 94 4 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐100
‐90
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
24
µ – average σ – standard deviation Δ – change from previous period σΔ – volatility (standard deviation of the changes) All of the above calculated since 2008Q3 See technical note for further details
Civil Engineering: Gauteng
Indicator Unit μ‐σ μ μ+σ 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 Δ σ Δ
Confidence % 32 43 53 39 27 47 38 39 31 36 50 14 16
Activity Net % ‐58 ‐39 ‐20 ‐44 ‐50 ‐33 ‐73 ‐50 ‐54 ‐64 ‐25 39 18
Smoothed Net % ‐55 ‐39 ‐24 ‐51 ‐42 ‐52 ‐52 ‐59 ‐56 ‐48 ‐45 3 7
Tendering competition Net % 33 48 62 22 40 47 38 33 15 36 62 26 21
Smoothed Net % 39 48 56 40 36 42 39 29 28 38 49 11 7
Insufficient demand % 63 72 80 72 70 70 72 72 69 73 81 8 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Confidence
‐80
‐70
‐60
‐50
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Activity (smoothed)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
net %Tendering competition (smoothed)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%Insufficient demand
25
Summary
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scaleConfidence: building & civil construction
Downturn Building Civil construction
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scale
Activity (smoothed): building & civil construction
Downturn Building Civil construction
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scaleBER & cidb building activity
Downturn cidb BER
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scaleBER & cidb civil activity
Downturn cidb BER
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scaleBuilding activity per grade (smoothed)
Business cycle Gr3&4 Gr5&6 Gr7&8
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scaleCivil activity per grade (smoothed)
Business cycle Gr3&4 Gr5&6 Gr7&8
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scaleBuilding activity per province (smoothed)
Business cycle WC EC KZN GP
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
normalised scaleCivil activity per province (smoothed)
Business cycle WC EC KZN GP
26
Technical note The cidb has contracted the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University to conduct a business
tendency survey (BTS) among registered cidb contractors (Grades 3 - 8) operating in the building and civil engineering
industries since the third quarter of 2008. Business tendency survey results reveal information on the current state
of affairs. The survey results not only reveal earlier developments in activity, employment etc. (for which official
figures are published), but also provide unique information, such as business confidence, tendering prices, business
conditions, constraint indicators and respondents’ expectations (or forecast) for the next quarter. It is now widely
recognised that such subjective individual expectations play a key role in economic developments. Furthermore, the
survey results of successive quarters provide a means of tracking cyclical movements, pinpointing trend changes and
establishing forecasts.
The survey method The survey results are obtained from questionnaires completed by senior executives in the building and civil
construction sector during the middle month of every calendar quarter.
The business survey questionnaire contains a small number of questions. These questions are qualitative in nature,
e.g. “Compared to the same quarter a year ago, is the volume of building activity up, the same or down?”. No figures
are requested.
The sample of executives remains the same from one survey to the next. A panel is in effect established. The sample
provides for the main sectors. The list of participants is reviewed every few years to replace those firms that went
out of business or stopped responding during the previous two years with new ones.
To provide for widely differing sizes, each firm in the BER’s manufacturing and trade surveys is allocated a weight
based on its turnover. Firms in the BER’s building and the cidb survey are not weighted. Participants have to complete
a “participant details form” at the time of recruitment and every few years to ensure that their sector classification
and turnover (optional) are correct. Firms that are registered for both general building and civil construction at the
cidb, have to indicate which one generated the bulk of their turnover during the previous year.
The BER conducted its first survey of the manufacturing and trade (i.e. retail, wholesale and motor trade) sectors in
1954. The sector coverage was expanded to the building sector (i.e. main contractors and sub-contractors) in 1969.
The BER also took responsibility for a quantitative building cost survey in that year. The breadth of the building survey
was expanded on two occasions: 1) architects and quantity surveyors were added in 1986 in order to track
developments along the whole building pipeline (i.e. from the initiation to the completion of projects) and 2) civil
engineering contractors were added in 1997. The cidb survey is conducted since 2008.
The survey that the BER conducts on behalf of the cidb covers the same sectors than the BER’s own surveys. To
prevent confusing participants and duplication, a firm is allowed to participate in only one of the surveys. The cidb
survey includes only firms with active grades 3 to 8 cidb registrations. The BER’s surveys also include firms that are
not registered at the cidb (this is more so in the case of the building than the civil construction sector) and firms with
grade 9 registrations (this is more the case in the civil construction than building sector). The results per grade
uniquely distinguish the cidb survey from the BER’s own survey.
Consult the BER web page (www.ber.ac.za) for more information about the business tendency.
27
First quarter of 2019 changes in the “cidb Building & Construction” report The original individual responses (the so-called micro data) were used to recalculate historical time series for all the sectors, grades and the four main provinces (Western Cape, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng) going back to 1992.
The selection of time series covered in the tables
From the first quarter of 2019 onwards the BER includes only a selection of variables (time series) and added descriptive statistics in the tables of survey results to assist users with the interpretation.
A factor analysis has confirmed our experience that most of the time series move closely together over time. For instance, business confidence, activity, employment, profitability and constraints exhibit a high positive correlation (co-movement) with one another. There is also a negative correlation with some other variables, such as tendering competition and certain constraints. We have, therefore, limited the number of series covered in the report to those that have historically and according to the functional analysis proved to provide the most unique information and are necessary to obtain a full, balanced view of developments. All the variables are still covered as in the past and the information is available on request, but from the first quarter of 2019 onwards we only focus on the core findings.
This may prevent one from getting side-tracked by too much information and trying to explain results that are not statistically meaningful, such as rationalising differences between two series/variables or only focussing on the last two quarters.
Descriptive statistics provided in the tables
Some of the survey results are quite volatile. This volatility results in a situation where the user does not know how much value to attach to a specific result (i.e. the signalling impact of the results are hampered) because -10, for instance, is a significant result in one case and merely an average in another.
The volatility could be attributed to many factors, such as sector disaggregation, sector heterogeneity, respondent behaviour, survey design or it could merely correctly reflect actual developments or uncertainty. Generally the results at the aggregate (total) level are less volatile than at the disaggregated level (i.e. total building compared to residential sector). The results of heterogeneous sectors, such as those in which only a few firms operate, a few large firms dominate many small firms or widely divergent kinds of activity are covered, tend to be more volatile than homogeneous sectors. Survey design, such as the representativeness of the sample, the number of completed questionnaires (usually below 30) and weighting, could also play a role.
Thanks to many years of experience the BER knows when a particular result is noteworthy. However, to formalise this and correctly identify signals, we have added some descriptive statistics to the tables. The purpose of these statistics is to indicate the significance of the level or change in each indicator, relative to its own historical pattern.
The unique units of measurement of qualitative surveys
Net percentage (net %)
The responses related to the change in activity, prices, employment, business conditions etc. are presented as a “net
percentage” (also called a “net balance” or a “net majority”). If, for example, the percentages of respondents rating
building activity as “higher”, the “same” or “lower” compared to a year ago are 70%, 10% and 20% respectively,
then one can conclude that the majority of participants experienced higher activity. The net percentage is calculated
as the percentage of respondents rating “activity” as higher less the percentage rating it as “lower”. The percentage
rating it as the “same” is ignored. The net percentage in this example is therefore 50%, being the difference between
the 70% “higher” and the 20% “lower”. A net percentage of –10%, for instance, would indicate a decline in activity
compared to a year ago. Take note that this does not mean a year-on-year contraction of 10%. It only means that
the activity of a majority of 10% of the respondents was lower compared to a year ago.
The net percentage, or net balance statistic, can theoretically vary between a minimum of -100 (when all participants
replied “lower”) and a maximum of +100 (when all respondents replied “higher”). Theoretically a value of zero,
therefore, indicates no change, between 0 and 100 reflects a rise (or improvement) and between 0 and –100 a decline
(or deterioration) compared to the same quarter a year ago. The net balance statistic is a diffusion index, i.e. it
indicates the degree to which the indicated change is “diffused” (spread) throughout the sample population. It
indicates both the direction and size of the change.
28
Given that it reflects respondents’ estimation of the
change in the phenomenon/variable in the current
quarter relative to the same quarter a year ago, the
net percentage corresponds to a year-on-year
percentage change/growth rate in the
corresponding/equivalent official data series (see the
figure on the right).
Percentage (%)
The responses relating to business confidence and
constraints are presented as percentages.
In the case of business confidence, respondents have to rate prevailing business conditions as either “satisfactory” or
“unsatisfactory”. The percentage of respondents rating prevailing business conditions as satisfactory is taken as an
indicator (proxy) for business confidence. A reading of 10 for business confidence, for instance, means that only 10%
of the respondents indicated that they were satisfied. In this example, 90% were, therefore, unsatisfied.
In the case of the constraints, respondents have to rate if a particular issue – for instance, a shortage of skilled labour
– “seriously”, “slightly” or “not at all” hampers their activity. Composite constraint indices are calculated by weighting
the responses as follows: The answers of respondents rating a particular constraint as “serious” are weighted by
0.67%; “slightly” by 0.33% and “not a constraint at all” are discarded. The results are then multiplied by 100/67 =
1.49 to convert it to an index that can vary between zero and 100.
Care must be taken when making inferences from the constraints indices given that the list of constraints (issues)
remains unchanged over time. Each constraint ought to be analysed relative to its own historical performance rather
than comparing the ratings of the different constraints at a specific point in time. The latter inference would be more
appropriate if respondents had to list all issues hampering their activity at a particular point in time and rank them in
order of their impact.
Theoretically, the confidence and constraints series can vary between a minimum of zero and a maximum of 100. A
value of zero would reflect an extreme lack of confidence/no limitation at all and 100 extreme confidence/complete
limitation. These results reflect respondents’ evaluation of the phenomenon/the survey variable in respect to that
specific survey quarter, i.e. not relative to some period in the past or future.
Descriptive statistics in the tables
Three-quarter centred moving average (smoothed)
Some series show erratic/volatile movements, i.e. data jumps around quite a bit between consecutive quarters. In
such cases, it is necessary to smooth these movements over a longer period to obtain a general trend. Another case
where we added moving averages is when the correlation between the survey results and the corresponding reference
series is low or non-existent.
Three-quarter centred moving averages (3qcma) were selected in order to not disturb turning points too much, e.g.
the moving average of 17Q4 is calculated as the average of 17Q3, 17Q4 and 18Q1, that of 18Q1 is calculated as the
average of 17Q4, 18Q1 and 18Q2 etc. In order for the smoothed series to run up to the last unsmoothed data point,
the last smoothed data point is only the average of two quarters, namely the previous and current quarter.
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
‐100
‐50
0
50
100
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Survey vs Quantitative Data
Net % (lhs) y‐o‐y % change (rhs)
29
When a smoothed series is added, it is prudent not to attach too much value to the unsmoothed results of a particular
quarter, but rather to evaluate it in its historical context.
Seasonal adjustment (SA)
In theory, the time series ought to display no seasonal patterns because respondents are instructed to compare the
current quarter with the same one of a year ago (e.g. they have to compare the current Festive Season or wet/dry
winter period with the same time a year ago). However, in practice, some series nevertheless reveal seasonal
patterns, probably because some respondents incorrectly compare the survey quarter with the one directly preceding
it. In such cases, a seasonally adjusted series (i.e. where such seasonal variation is eliminated with X12 ARIMA) is
added.
Average (µ)
The neutral level of the time series for the two measurement types, net percentage and percentage, is 50 or zero
respectively. The long-term average (mean) is often not equivalent to this neutral level. In such cases, it is more
useful to evaluate the current results relative to such a long-term average than the neutral level.
One standard deviation below (µ-σ) and above (µ+σ) the average
The standard deviation indicates the common variation in or dispersion of the values. Data points falling between one
standard deviation below and above the average could be regarded as common. Any data point falling outside these
ranges, therefore, displays statistically significant variation.
Change (Delta: Δ)
This statistic indicates the change in the results of the latest quarter relative to the preceding quarter.
Volatility (standard deviation of the deltas: σΔ)
This statistic indicates the volatility of the quarter-on-quarter change. If the size (regardless if it is an increase or
decline) of the change is greater than the standard deviation of the deltas, then it displays a statistically significant
variation.
Conventions and aids provided in the charts
Shaded areas
Indicates cyclical downturns as demarcated by the South African Reserve Bank. Users need to take note that the
business cycle could have already reversed course towards the end of the period covered in the chart, but usually we
wait until the bank determines a turning point before changing the shaded areas.
Solid vs. dotted horizontal (X) axes:
A solid line indicates the theoretical mid-points of 50 or zero respectively, while a dotted line indicates the long-term
average (mean). Also see the section on the “average” above.
30
Normalised scale
Time series data is normalised (standardised) when one wishes to observe the co-movement among indicators with
different units of measurement, say for instance, between a diffusion index (confidence) and the growth rate in a
volume index (GDP growth). Normalisation converts both series to the same scale (unit) by subtracting the long-term
average from each series and dividing it by its standard deviation. This ensures that one compares “apples” with
“apples” when making a visual inspection and not mistakenly identify co-movements or deviations that different scales
could produce.
cidb - S
ME Busin
ess Conditio
ns Surve
y
Gauteng Provincial [email protected]
Western Cape Provincial OfficeCape [email protected]
Eastern Cape Provincial [email protected]
Northern Cape Provincial [email protected]
Free State Provincial [email protected]
KwaZulu-Natal Provincial [email protected]
Limpopo Provincial [email protected]
Mpumalanga Provincial OfficeNelspruit (Mbombela)[email protected]
North West Provincial [email protected]
cidb contact number: 086 100 2432
Anonymous Fraud Line: 0800 11 24 32
email: [email protected]