citigroup 11 th annual global paper and forest products conference december 7, 2006

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Citigroup 11 th Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Packaging Corporation of America. Citigroup 11 th Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006. Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO. Packaging Corporation of America. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

Citigroup 11th Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference

December 7, 2006

Packaging Corporation of America

Paul T. SteckoChairman and CEO

Page 2: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about our future financial condition, our industry and our business strategy. Statements that contain words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “hope” or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of PCA.

Because forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, the plans, actions and actual results of PCA could differ materially. Among the factors that could cause plans, actions and results to differ materially from PCA’s current expectations are those identified under the caption “Risk Factors” in PCA’s Form 10K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at the SEC’s website at “www.sec.gov”.

Packaging Corporation of America

Page 3: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Pure Play in the Right Product

% of Revenues from Containerboard and Corrugated Products

98%

53%

21% 20%15%

Weyerhaeuser PCA InternationalPaper

Temple-InlandSmurfit-Stone

Koch / GP

Note: Based on company press releases and PCA and analyst estimates

95%

Page 4: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

4

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006SeptYTD

Export % Import %

Containerboard Imports and Exportsas a Percentage of Production

Source: AF & PA reports

Page 5: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Containerboard Capacity Growth (U.S. Only)

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: AF & PA Capacity Survey. Includes permanent shutdowns announced after the survey and current indefinite shutdowns as of December 5, 2006.

Page 6: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Key Cost Data ’05 – ‘06 % 1992 Avg. Increase

Recycled Mills -Key Cost and Investment Drivers

U.S. Natural Gas (1)(2) $1.74 $7.09 307%

(per thousand cubic ft.)

OPEC Crude Oil (1)(3) $17.81 $56.37 217%(per barrel)

Electricity (1) $48.30 $58.74 22% (per MKWH)

Recycled Fiber(1) $27.00 $75.08 178% (per ton)

1. Source of pricing data: U.S. Government Energy Information Administration for U.S. natural gas, OPEC crude oil and electricity prices available as of December 4, 2006, and industry publications for recycled fiber prices which excludes delivery costs of about $20.00 per ton.

2. Wellhead price of natural gas, excluding $1.00 to $1.50 in delivery and transportation costs.3. Landed cost to U.S.4. PCA estimate based on Industry publications and cost studies.

40%

30%

70%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Fiber Energy Total

% of Total Cash Cost (4)

Page 7: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

7

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug. Sept Oct

Industry Corrugated Products DemandPer Workday(2)

Year-over-Year% Change (1)

(1) Year-over-year change 2005 vs 2004 by month, and January - October 2006(2) Source: Fiber Box Association

2005 2006

Page 8: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Inventory Linerboard Prices

Industry Containerboard Inventory & Pricing

Sources: Industry Inventory, Fiber Box Association and American Forest & Paper Association; Linerboard Prices, Industry Publications

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Price Per Ton000 Tons

Page 9: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Mill2005 Production

(000 tons)% of

ProductionLinerboard

Counce, TN 966 41%Valdosta, GA 475 20%

Total Linerboard 1,441 61%

Corrugating MediumTomahawk, WI 531 23%Filer City, MI 375 16%

Total Medium 906 39%Total System 2,347 100%

Mill System

* Counce

* Tomahawk

* Filer City

Valdosta *

• Low Cost

• Primarily Virgin Fiber

• Fiber and Energy Flexibility

• Low Natural Gas Usage

• Lightweight Capability

• High Integration Level

Page 10: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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100% 100%

59%55%

38% 36%30%

23%19%

Limited Exposure to Potential IncreasesIn Wastepaper Prices

Wastepaper Utilization

Source: Industry publications and PCA estimates

Solvay Norampac Temple-Inland Koch / GP International Paper

Visy Weyerhaeuser Smurfit-Stone PCA

Page 11: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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3%

18%

44%

35%

Mill Purchased Fuel Mix

Nat

ura

l Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

4Q ’05 Actual2000

36%

4%

27%

33%

Natural Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

Page 12: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Corrugated Products

Differentiated Operating Strategy

• Stand-alone profit centers

• Value-added products

• Two-thirds local accounts

• Over 8,300 customers

• Top 30 accounts represent

only about 30% of sales

Page 13: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

13Corrugated plantsSheet/specialty plants

Corrugated Products System

Oxnard

Garland

Phoenix

Salt Lake City Windsor

NorthglennDenver

El Paso

Waco

Plano

Los Angeles

OmahaMarshalltown

MinneapolisGolden Valley

Muskogee

Colby

Jackson

Winter Haven

Jacksonville

Opelika

Atlanta

NewberryHonea Path

RutherfordtonMorgantonKnoxville

GoldsboroSalisbury

High Point

Roanoke

RichmondHarrisonburg

Baltimore

Northampton

Chelmsford

Watertown

Syracuse

Buffalo

Conrad

Milwaukee

Burlington

Vincennes

Gas City

AllentownTrexlertown

LancasterHanover

Edmore

GrandvillePlymouth

Akron

Pittsburgh

Middletown Newark

Ashland

South Gate

Arlington

Donna

Fairfield

Franklin

Acorn

Jackson

OliveBranch

Miami

Page 14: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Corrugated Products Growth (1)

Cu

mu

lati

ve %

Ch

ang

e

(1) Shipments per workday / FBA Data for Industry, and PCA actuals

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Oct YTD ‘06

PCA Industry

33%

3%

Page 15: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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100

105

110

115

120

125

130

J F M A M J J A S O N D

PCA Box Shipments2005, 2004, 2003 and 2002

MMSF Per Workday

2005 2004 2003 2002

Page 16: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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0

6

12

18

24

30

36

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

E-Commerce Retail Sales

$ Billions

1Q – 3Q Average4th Quarter

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, except for 4Q ’06 estimated based on current published reports

Page 17: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Industry Margins – 3Q 2006Containerboard Segment (1)

Sales ($MM) $ 567 $ 1,250 $ 746 $ 1,733 $ 1,245EBIT ($MM) (2) 95 125 74 165 102

EBIT % 16.7% 10.0% 9.9% 9.5% 8.2%

PCA(4) IP TIN SSCC WY

Interest Cost ($MM) (3) 8 31 16 73 24Interest Cost % 1.4% 2.5% 2.2% 4.2% 2.0%

(1) Company third quarter earnings press releases and SEC filings.(2) Adjustments were made to the following companies’ reported containerboard segment earnings before interest and taxes per their press releases or SEC filings to eliminate

unusual or non-recurring items with adjustments to International Paper of ($13MM) and to Weyerhaeuser of $6MM.(3) Total reported company interest cost was pro-rated based on net sales by segment to reflect segment allocated interest cost. (4) For comparability to other companies for reported segment earnings, PCA results exclude corporate overhead, other expense, net, and solid wood loss from operations. PCA’s

containerboard segment sales, EBIT and pre-tax earnings are calculated as follows:

PCA net sales $575 PCA income from operations $77

Less: Solid Wood net sales (8) Add: Corporate overhead, other expense, net,

PCA Containerboard sales $567 and Solid Wood loss from operations 18

PCA Containerboard EBIT $95

Less: Interest expense, net (8)

PCA Containerboard pre-tax earnings $87

Pre-Tax Earnings ($MM) $ 87 $ 94 $ 58 $ 92 $ 78

Pre-Tax Earnings % 15.3% 7.5% 7.7% 5.3% 6.2%

Page 18: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Temple Inland 1.9

Weyerhaeuser 2.9

International Paper 3.9

Smurfit Stone 7.0

Temple Inland 43%

Weyerhaeuser 49%

International Paper 63%

Smurfit Stone 68%

Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) / Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) Adjusted Interest (2) Total Capital

Temple Inland 6.9

Weyerhaeuser 6.7

International Paper 4.5

Smurfit Stone 1.5

(1) Debt / Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Interest, and Debt / Total Capital are ratios commonly used by the ratings agencies. Total capital is calculated as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders’ equity. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest are calculated for the twelve-month period ended September 30, 2006 and both exclude unusual or non-recurring items.

(2) Adjustments ($ in millions) were made to the following companies’ reported income before interest and taxes per their SEC filings or press releases to eliminate unusual or non-recurring

items.

International Paper 384.0 Temple Inland (63.0) Smurfit Stone 92.0 Weyerhaeuser 1,508.0

Weyerhaeuser’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude the loss from early debt extinguishment of $15.0 million. No other adjustments were made to the other companies’ reported interest.

(3) PCA’s adjusted EBITDA is calculated as follows:

Income before interest and taxes, as reported for the period $ 165.1Add: plant closure and severance costs 1.3

Adjusted EBIT 166.4Add: Depreciation, depletion and amortization as reported the period 156.4

Adjusted EBITDA $ 322.8

Source: Company SEC filings and press releases

PCA (3) 2.1

PCA (3) 10.4

PCA 50%

Strong Credit Profile September 2006 Data(1)

Page 19: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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Dividend Yield (1)

(1) Based on share prices as of December 1, 2006 and announced annual dividend rates

4.5%

3.7%

3.0%

2.6%

0.0%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

PCA WY IP TIN SSCC

Page 20: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006

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• Single Business Focus - Operational Excellence

• Grow Corrugated Products Volume- Internal Growth

- Acquisitions

• Enhance Shareholder Value Through Financial and Strategic Flexibility

Strategy

Page 21: Citigroup 11 th  Annual Global Paper and Forest Products Conference December 7, 2006