citigroup 10 th annual global paper, forest products and packaging conference december 1, 2005

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Citigroup 10 th Annual Global Paper, Forest Products and Packaging Conferenc December 1, 2005 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

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Packaging Corporation of America. Citigroup 10 th Annual Global Paper, Forest Products and Packaging Conference December 1, 2005. Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO. Packaging Corporation of America. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

Citigroup

10th Annual Global Paper, Forest Products and Packaging Conference

December 1, 2005

Packaging Corporation of America

Paul T. SteckoChairman and CEO

Page 2: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

2

Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about our future financial condition, our industry and our business strategy. Statements that contain words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “hope” or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of PCA.

Because forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, the plans, actions and actual results of PCA could differ materially. Among the factors that could cause plans, actions and results to differ materially from PCA’s current expectations are those identified under the caption “Risk Factors” in PCA’s Form 10K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at the SEC’s website at “www.sec.gov”.

Packaging Corporation of America

Page 3: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

3

PCA is a Major Producer of Containerboard

20%

18%

13%

10%9%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

SSCC WY IP GP TIN PCA

Source: AF & PA U.S. Containerboard Statistics October 2005, adjusted for indefinite mill shuts

Market Share

Page 4: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

4

Pure Play in the Right Product

% of Revenues from Containerboard and Corrugated Products

Weyerhaeuser PCA InternationalPaper

Temple-InlandSmurfit-Stone

Georgia-Pacific

97%

70%

58%

19% 17% 15%

Note: Based on company press releases and PCA and analyst estimates

Page 5: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

5

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Sept.YTD

Export % Import %

Containerboard Imports and Exportsas a Percentage of Production

Source: AF & PA reports

Page 6: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

6

Containerboard Capacity Growth (U.S. Only)

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: AF & PA Capacity Survey. Includes permanent shuts announced after the survey and current indefinite shuts as of November 28, 2005.

Page 7: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

7

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct

Industry Corrugated Products VolumePer Workday – 2005 vs. 2004

% Change

Sources: Fiber Box Association

Page 8: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

8

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

Industry Containerboard Inventory

Sources: Fiber Box Association and American Forest & Paper Association

(000 tons)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 20052003

Page 9: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

9

Linerboard Trendline Pricing

0

100

200

300

400

500

'71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Source: RISI North America Pulp and Paper Review

Nominal Nominal Trendline

$/Ton

Page 10: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

10

Mill2004 Production

(000 tons)% of

ProductionLinerboard

Counce, TN 999 43%Valdosta, GA 457 20%

Total Linerboard 1,456 63%

Corrugating MediumTomahawk, WI 572 24%Filer City, MI 290 13%

Total Medium 862 37%Total System 2,318 100%

Mill System

* Counce

* Tomahawk

* Filer City

Valdosta *

• Low Cost

• Primarily Virgin Fiber

• Fiber and Energy Flexibility

• Low Natural Gas Usage

• Lightweight Capability

Page 11: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

11

$/Ton

Source: Industry publications for OCC pricing excluding delivery costs

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

Recycled Fiber Prices HistoricallyHave Been Very Volatile

China’s Source’s of OCC (2003)

HK

JAP

Oth

er

63%19% U.S.EUR

Page 12: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

12

0.4 0.3

3.0

6.46.9

9.410.0

10.711.5

12.313.2

14.115.1

16.1

17.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1985 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: 2003 Almanac of China’s Paper Industry for total wastepaper imports, primarily OCC. Projections reflect an average growth in imports of 7% per year.

Actual Projected

China Wastepaper Imports

(millions of tons)

Page 13: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

13

100% 100%

59% 58%

38% 36%30%

23%19%

Limited Exposure to Potential IncreasesIn Wastepaper Prices

Wastepaper Utilization

Source: Industry publications and PCA estimates

Solvay Norampac Temple-Inland Georgia-Pacific International Paper

Visy Weyerhaeuser Smurfit-Stone PCA

Page 14: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

14

0.00

3.00

6.00

9.00

12.00

15.00

18.00

J'03

F M A M J J A S O N D J'04

F M A M J J A S O N D J'05

F M A M J J A S O N D J'06

F M

$ Per M2BTU

Natural Gas Coal

Price of Natural Gas(1) and Coal(2)

(1) Delivered cost per M2BTU of natural gas based upon NYMEX actual (January 2003 – November 2005) and futures (December 2005 – March 2006) monthly closing prices on November 28, 2005, plus estimated transportation, utility, taxes and other cost add-ons of $0.55 to $1.30 per M2BTU.

(2) Delivered cost of coal per M2BTU including estimated coal costs, plus estimated transportation, taxes and handling cost add-ons of $0.75 to $0.80 per M2BTU.

Page 15: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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5%

14%

49%

32%

Mill Purchased Fuel Mix

Nat

ura

l

Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

September 20052000

36%

4%

27%

33%

Natural Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

Page 16: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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6058

43

23

18

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

GP WY IP SSCC TIN PCA

Annual Natural Gas Usage (1)

(Millions of M2BTU)

Source: Company third quarter earnings release conference call disclosures and PCA estimates

Page 17: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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$0.72$0.69

$0.48

$0.27 $0.26

$0.08

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

$0.70

$0.80

WY GP TIN SSCC IP PCA

EPS Impact of $5.00 per M2BTU Natural Gas Price Increase

Source: Company third quarter earnings release conference call disclosures and PCA estimates

Page 18: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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Corrugated Products

Differentiated Operating Strategy

• Stand-alone profit centers

• Value-added products

• 70% local accounts

• Over 8,000 customers

• Top 30 accounts represent

only about 30% of sales

Page 19: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

19Corrugated plantsSheet/specialty plants

Corrugated Products System

Oxnard

Garland

Phoenix

Salt Lake City Windsor

NorthglennDenver

El Paso

Waco

Plano

Los Angeles

OmahaMarshalltown

MinneapolisGolden Valley

Muskogee

Colby

Jackson

Winter Haven

Jacksonville

Opelika

Atlanta

NewberryHonea Path

RutherfordtonMorgantonKnoxville

GoldsboroSalisbury

High Point

Roanoke

RichmondHarrisonburg

Baltimore

Northampton

Chelmsford

Watertown

Syracuse

Buffalo

Conrad

Milwaukee

Burlington

Vincennes

Gas City

AllentownTrexlertown

LancasterHanover

Edmore

GrandvillePlymouth

Akron

Pittsburgh

Middletown Newark

Ashland

South Gate

Arlington

Donna

Fairfield

Franklin

Acorn

Jackson

OliveBranch

St. Louis

Page 20: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

20

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Corrugated Products Growth

Cu

mu

lati

ve %

Ch

ang

e

Source: FBA Data for Industry

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Sept. YTD

2005

PCA Industry

Sept. YTD 2005

PCA + 4.6%

Industry - 1.4%

Page 21: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

21

6.6

4.4 4.43.8 3.7

2.8

0

2

4

6

8

Capital Expenditures as a Percent of Sales2000 Through 2004 Average

PCA Temple International Weyerhaeuser Georgia Smurfit Inland Paper Pacific Stone

Percent

Source: SEC filings for Containerboard and Packaging segment of each company

Page 22: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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Current Debt Structure

Asset Securitization $ 109 4.223 October 2006 (Receivables Revolving Credit Facility)

Term Loan 39 5.313 July 2008

5-Year Notes 150 4.375 August 2008

10-Year Notes 400 5.750 August 2010

Total $ 698 5.192

Revolver (2) $ 100 July 2008

Cash On Hand $ 184

(1) Excludes $3.0 million of unamortized debt discount related to the 5-year and 10-year notes.(2) Undrawn as of September 30, 2005. Pay 20bps for the $100 million commitment.

Amount ($MM) (1)

Cash InterestRate (%) Maturity

As of Sept. 30, 2005

Page 23: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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Temple Inland 2.1

Weyerhaeuser 2.6

Georgia Pacific 3.0

International Paper 3.9

Smurfit Stone 6.2

Temple Inland 42%

Weyerhaeuser 52%

Georgia Pacific 59%

International Paper 65%

Smurfit Stone 69%

Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) / Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) Adjusted Interest (2) Total Capital

Temple Inland 6.4

Weyerhaeuser 5.6

International Paper 4.4

Georgia Pacific 4.4

Smurfit Stone 2.1

(1) Debt / Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Interest, and Debt / Total Capital are ratios commonly used by the ratings agencies. Total capital is calculated as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders’ equity. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest are calculated for the 12 month period ended September 30, 2005 and both exclude unusual or nonrecurring items.

(2) Adjustments ($ in millions) were made to the following companies’ reported income before interest and taxes per their SEC filings or press releases to eliminate unusual or non-recurring

items.

Georgia Pacific 261.0 Temple Inland 100.0 International Paper 25.0 Weyerhaeuser 49.0 Smurfit Stone 380.0

Weyerhaeuser’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude the loss from early debt extinguishment of $73.0 million, and income received from the sale of an investment of $115.0 million. International Paper’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude interest income related to a tax audit agreement and collection of a note receivable of $54.0 million. No other adjustments were made to the other companies’ reported interest.

(3) PCA’s adjusted EBITDA is calculated as follows:

Income before interest and taxes, as reported for the period $ 175.7Less: STV Dividends (39.2)Add: plant closure and severance costs 2.2

Adjusted EBIT 138.7Add: Depreciation, depletion and amortization as reported the period 159.4

Adjusted EBITDA $ 298.1

Source: Company SEC filings and press releases

PCA (3) 2.3

PCA (3) 10.5

PCA 47%

Strong Credit Profile September 2005 Data(1)

Page 24: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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Dividend Yield (1)

(1) Based on closing share prices as of November 28, 2005 and announced annual dividend rates

4.4%

3.2% 3.1%

2.2%

1.5%

00%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

PCA IP WY TIN GP SSCC

Page 25: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005

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• Single Business Focus - Operational Excellence

• Grow Corrugated Products Volume- Internal Growth

- Acquisitions

• Enhance Shareholder Value Through Financial and Strategic Flexibility

Strategy

Page 26: Citigroup 10 th  Annual Global Paper,  Forest Products and Packaging Conference  December 1, 2005