Civil Aviation Futures

Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT

proGective / WFSF

Incheon Airport – 29 March 2007

progective@progective.com

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contents

futures thinking applied to aviation

what if?

a world in transition

conclusion: structural threads of

evolution

about the futures of civil aviation

you said "aviation"?

what if?

trends and uncertainties

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Aviation describes the activities, industries, and regulatory bodies associated with aircraft.

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what's next in Aviation?

increase capacity

improve safety and reliability

increase efficiency and performance

reduce energy consumption and

environmental impact (noise, pollution)

China, a new challenger for Boeing and

Airbus in 2020?

…

1. thinking the unthinkable

wild cards

what if?

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a world at war?

traditional war

terrorist war

invisible war (e-Pearl Harbour)

organised piracy

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a technological breakthrough?

gravity control propulsion

automated personal air transport vehicle

teleportation

virtual mobility (second life)

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the end of megalopolis?

megalopolis are the engines fuelling globalisation through the financial flows and the transportation and telecommunication networks they set up

2. a world in transition

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a change in the world's map cleavages

from West/East, North/South

to westerner/non-westerner

to global cities/remote territories

to peaceful/instable part of the world

to an Asian-oriented world markets, multinational firms, R&D in S&T, FDI…

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trends by 2030

global convergence

expanding global economy

accelerating pace of scientific change and dispersion technologies

emerging powers; slow democratization and better governance

global aging phenomenon

expanding educated middle class

increased pressures on international institutions for global regulation

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trends by 2030

but

lingering social inequalities

spreading radical ideologies

potential for catastrophic terrorism due

to interconnections / interdependences

proliferation of weapons of mass

destruction

spreading individual heterogeneity

increasing control over privacy

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so what for aviation?

globalization increasing flows of information, technology, G&S, capital and people

increasing of the global growth (by 80% in 2020) + improving of the living standards, esp. in emerging countries = huge consuming middle-class market

but globalisation could be slowed, even stopped by: new pandemic (influenza 1918-19: 20 millions deaths)

sense of physical and economic insecurity (border controls, restriction on exchanges)

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technology revolution

a new steward?

convergence force-multiplying convergence of

the technologies: information, biological, materials, nanotechnologies, etc.

growing two-way flow of high-tech brain power between developing and Western countries

increasing size of educated workforce in some developing countries

dual-use of new technologies for freedom and for control

for commercial and for military

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technology revolution

but next leaders in innovation?

China and India's investments in higher education, basic research and R&D −esp. in energy, water and transportation−

Japan's mastering of robotics

wild competition to integrate and apply new technologies, whatever their origin IPR or open sources?

next leader in setting the rules for design, standards, implementation, privacy, information security…?

source of tension through competition to create/attract tech-advancing people

resistance of cultural/political groups against pervasiveness

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so what for aviation?

faster and cheaper L.A. to Tokyo in 4 hours: The Future High-Speed

Civil Transport (MACH 3)

The Flying Wing carrying 800 Passengers

small aircraft transportation system for short-range trips for both private and business transportation (flying taxi)

safer IFATS: a revolutionary concept for a future air

transportation system by adding as much onboard autonomy to the aircraft as necessary to fulfil the overall requirements of improved efficiency and safety of air transportation

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evolution of societies

toward a converging society?

emerging refusal of the increasing pressure on

the environment and resources

demand for a greater attention to universal

human rights, democratic processes and

sustainable development

demand for transparency and accountability in

the governance systems

sensitivity to diversity, multiculturalism,

recognition of minorities; revised values

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evolution of societies

but increasing violence, incivility, stress

individualism, loneliness

denying traditional authority

widening of the gap between having/having not, info rich/info poor

excessive resistance from highly conservative cultural groups to the standardisation of values

perception of chaos, fragmentation, division due to the cohabitation of different value sets loss of identity, bearings, etc.

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so what for aviation?

business: co-operation rather than competition, ethical practices, environmental responsibility, collaboration with population prior to decision-making

technology: from carbon tax to electric airships powered by hydrogen

society: hedonism international tourism or cocooning?

threads of the Big Picture

a conclusion

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…new paradigm

economy

sciences &

techniques

space

politics

human rights

humanitarian policy

right to interfere

environment

sustainable

development

‘glocal’

globalisation

mobility

multiculturalism

invention

innovation

ethics

subsidiarity

devolution

governance

network

‘linkingness’

connection individual

society

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converging : the integration

continents

cultures

prehistory

n +

5000 years

complexity

globalization

interdependencies

noosphere information interdisciplinary

megalopolis

men-machines

supra-States

sustainable development

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bringing together

world government

rights of the

future generations

world common good

democracy

(liberty, justice)

human rights

abstract

concrete

religions

ideologies

doctrines

world public

opinion

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acquired

given

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back to the main lines of evolution

economy

space

politics

individual/ person

society

science &

technology

regulation

organisation

energy growth

adaptation

response to

a stimuli

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conclusion

you can forget the rest of the world because you will BE the world for the next 20 years

but the next challenge is already beyond 2030 and must be prepared today:

an aviation world market encompassing the entire planet

an human- and environment-friendly aviation system

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A common rule is that nothing new happens unless there is emergency

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Uncertainty, complexity and convergence are the current main megadrivers mapping the road

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Now, chose your destination and fasten your seatbelt!!

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Thank You…