Download - civil aviation futures-fgb_2007
Civil Aviation Futures
Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT
proGective / WFSF
Incheon Airport – 29 March 2007
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contents
futures thinking applied to aviation
what if?
a world in transition
conclusion: structural threads of
evolution
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Aviation describes the activities, industries, and regulatory bodies associated with aircraft.
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what's next in Aviation?
increase capacity
improve safety and reliability
increase efficiency and performance
reduce energy consumption and
environmental impact (noise, pollution)
China, a new challenger for Boeing and
Airbus in 2020?
…
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a world at war?
traditional war
terrorist war
invisible war (e-Pearl Harbour)
organised piracy
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a technological breakthrough?
gravity control propulsion
automated personal air transport vehicle
teleportation
virtual mobility (second life)
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the end of megalopolis?
megalopolis are the engines fuelling globalisation through the financial flows and the transportation and telecommunication networks they set up
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a change in the world's map cleavages
from West/East, North/South
to westerner/non-westerner
to global cities/remote territories
to peaceful/instable part of the world
to an Asian-oriented world markets, multinational firms, R&D in S&T, FDI…
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trends by 2030
global convergence
expanding global economy
accelerating pace of scientific change and dispersion technologies
emerging powers; slow democratization and better governance
global aging phenomenon
expanding educated middle class
increased pressures on international institutions for global regulation
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trends by 2030
but
lingering social inequalities
spreading radical ideologies
potential for catastrophic terrorism due
to interconnections / interdependences
proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction
spreading individual heterogeneity
increasing control over privacy
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so what for aviation?
globalization increasing flows of information, technology, G&S, capital and people
increasing of the global growth (by 80% in 2020) + improving of the living standards, esp. in emerging countries = huge consuming middle-class market
but globalisation could be slowed, even stopped by: new pandemic (influenza 1918-19: 20 millions deaths)
sense of physical and economic insecurity (border controls, restriction on exchanges)
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technology revolution
a new steward?
convergence force-multiplying convergence of
the technologies: information, biological, materials, nanotechnologies, etc.
growing two-way flow of high-tech brain power between developing and Western countries
increasing size of educated workforce in some developing countries
dual-use of new technologies for freedom and for control
for commercial and for military
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technology revolution
but next leaders in innovation?
China and India's investments in higher education, basic research and R&D −esp. in energy, water and transportation−
Japan's mastering of robotics
wild competition to integrate and apply new technologies, whatever their origin IPR or open sources?
next leader in setting the rules for design, standards, implementation, privacy, information security…?
source of tension through competition to create/attract tech-advancing people
resistance of cultural/political groups against pervasiveness
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so what for aviation?
faster and cheaper L.A. to Tokyo in 4 hours: The Future High-Speed
Civil Transport (MACH 3)
The Flying Wing carrying 800 Passengers
small aircraft transportation system for short-range trips for both private and business transportation (flying taxi)
safer IFATS: a revolutionary concept for a future air
transportation system by adding as much onboard autonomy to the aircraft as necessary to fulfil the overall requirements of improved efficiency and safety of air transportation
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evolution of societies
toward a converging society?
emerging refusal of the increasing pressure on
the environment and resources
demand for a greater attention to universal
human rights, democratic processes and
sustainable development
demand for transparency and accountability in
the governance systems
sensitivity to diversity, multiculturalism,
recognition of minorities; revised values
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evolution of societies
but increasing violence, incivility, stress
individualism, loneliness
denying traditional authority
widening of the gap between having/having not, info rich/info poor
excessive resistance from highly conservative cultural groups to the standardisation of values
perception of chaos, fragmentation, division due to the cohabitation of different value sets loss of identity, bearings, etc.
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so what for aviation?
business: co-operation rather than competition, ethical practices, environmental responsibility, collaboration with population prior to decision-making
technology: from carbon tax to electric airships powered by hydrogen
society: hedonism international tourism or cocooning?
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…new paradigm
economy
sciences &
techniques
space
politics
human rights
humanitarian policy
right to interfere
environment
sustainable
development
‘glocal’
globalisation
mobility
multiculturalism
invention
innovation
ethics
subsidiarity
devolution
governance
network
‘linkingness’
connection individual
society
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converging : the integration
continents
cultures
prehistory
n +
5000 years
complexity
globalization
interdependencies
noosphere information interdisciplinary
megalopolis
men-machines
supra-States
sustainable development
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bringing together
world government
rights of the
future generations
world common good
democracy
(liberty, justice)
human rights
abstract
concrete
religions
ideologies
doctrines
world public
opinion
F. GOUX BAUDIMENT©
acquired
given
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back to the main lines of evolution
economy
space
politics
individual/ person
society
science &
technology
regulation
organisation
energy growth
adaptation
response to
a stimuli
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conclusion
you can forget the rest of the world because you will BE the world for the next 20 years
but the next challenge is already beyond 2030 and must be prepared today:
an aviation world market encompassing the entire planet
an human- and environment-friendly aviation system