Civilisation: The West and the Restby

Prof. Niall Ferguson(Author of the Ascent of Money)

Rise & Rise of China By

Dr T.H.Chowdary* Director, Center for Telecom Management & Studies

* Chairman, Pragna Bharati (Intellect India), AP * Fellow, Tata Consultancy Services

* Former Information Technology Adviser, GOAPChairman & Managing Director

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd., (VSNL)BombayT: +91 (40) 6667-1191(O)2784-3121(R)

F: +91 (40) 6667-1111 (O)hanuman.chowdary@tcs.com

Talk @ TCS-KLK: 27July ‘11

Civilisation - Culture

Collective IndividualSocial organisation FamilyMeans of production and distribution

Harmony with nature

Technology Obedience to unenforceable laws Governance BeautyWorks of Art Art, literaturePower& Criminality Conflict avoidance, integrativeConquests Ethics & Morality

THC_CTMS 2S648_July2011

Great CivilisationsDeclined & Died Surviving & ContinuousEgyptian Sanathan ( Hindu, Indian)Mesopotamian ChineseGreekRoman ( 5c; destroyed by Barbarians-German)Egyptian; Persian; Aztec; Maya; Inca; Communist

THC_CTMS 3S648_July2011

Contemporary Civilisations

The West (Christian) ChineseIslam Indian

Aggressive Non-aggressiveChristian ChineseIslam Indian

THC_CTMS 4S648_July2011

Y 1500 : Y 1759

• In Y 1500 Chinese Technology, Indian Maths and Arab Astrology had been far ahead of Europe for centuries

• By 1759 Europe overtook everyone else in all sciences & technology

THC_CTMS 5S648_July2011

Glory that was China • In 1500 AD, Beijing was the biggest city in the world- Pop

600/700,000• Of the 10 largest cities, 9 were Asian; 1 European – Paris with

200,000 London 50,000• By 1900, 9 of the 10 largest cities were European; 10th was Tokyo;

London 6.5 mln, largest• 1990: An American was 73 times richer than Chinese• Early 18 century French calorific intake was 1600 calories• Printing invention 15C Gutenberg; actually by Chinese in 11C; also

paper 11C• Blast furnace China before 200BC not in Coalbrookdale UK in 1709• Adm Zheng He – 400 ft long ship, 5 times Santa Maria of Columbus

– 1492; Zheng He crossed oceans in 1424

THC_CTMS 6S648_July2011

Fragmented, Feuding Europe• There were 1000 polities ( rulers) in 14C Europe 500 in 16th

century• 30Y war in Germany in mid-17C• Between 1500&1799 : Spain was at war for 81% of the time

England 53%; France 52%• Wars encouraged: innovation in military technology• 1566 Dutch revolt against Spain• Vasco de Gama demanded that the King of Calicut expel all

Muslims from his realm sank Muslim shipping to Mecca • 1st emperor of China 221-210 BC• Chinese characters 431286

THC_CTMS 7S648_July2011

London GuildsLike India’s Castes

Weavers 1130Bakers 1155Fishmongers 1272Drapers 1364Mercers 1384Grocers 1428

THC_CTMS 8S648_July2011

UK-China per capita GDP ratio

Year1000 11822 31872 61903 81922 101952 161982 92002 3

THC_CTMS 9S648_July2011

US-China P.C GDP1820 2

1870 5

1913 10

1968 33 (PPP)70 (Xge parity)

1978 25

2010 5

2010- GDP P/C:

Singapore Hong Kong Japan& Taiwan South Korea

21% more equal 25% less 36% lower

THC_CTMS 10S648_July2011

9 Crusades: 1095-1272• 1453: Constantinople fell• 1520-66: Suleiman the Great• 1521: Belgrade fell• 1529: at the gates of Vienna• 1611: King James Bible• 1666: Crete fell to Turks• 1683: Gates of Vienna Kara Mustafa• Polish King Jan III Sobieski led the 60000 Polish

German army• 1697: Turks driven out from all Europe

THC_CTMS 11S648_July2011

Rise & Rise of the West-Six Killer Applications

• Competition, in that Europe itself was politically fragmented and that within each monarchy or republic there were multiple competing corporate entities

• The Scientific revolution, in that all the major seventeenth-century breakthroughs in mathematics, astronomy, physics, chemistry and biology happened in Western Europe.

• The rule of law and representative government, in that an optimal system of social and political order emerged in the English-speaking world, based on private property tights and the representation of property-owners in elected legislatures

• Modern medicine, in that nearly all the major nineteenth-and twentieth-century breakthroughs in healthcare, including the control of tropical diseases, were made by Western Europeans and North Americans.

• The consumer society, in that the Industrial Revolution took place where there was both a supply of productivity-enhancing technologies and a demand for more, better and cheaper goods, beginning with cotton garments.

• The work ethic, in that Westerners were the first people in the world to combine more extensive and intensive labour with higher savings rates, permitting sustained capital accumulation.

THC_CTMS 12S648_July2011

Western Empires-1913

• British, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Belgian, Italian, German, Russia, Australia and USA

Motherlands PossessionsTerritory 10% 48%Population 16% 31%GDP 61% 18%

THC_CTMS 13S648_July2011

Knowledge is Power• The immortal English lexicographer, Samuel Johnson wrote in 1759

the book,”History of Rasselas: Prince of Abyssinia”• Qn: Rasselas: By what means…are the Europeans thus powerful?

Or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa for trade or conquest, cannot the Asiaticks and Africans invade their coasts, plant colonies in their ports, and give laws to their natural princes? The same wind that carries them back would bring us thither.

• Ans: Imlac (The Philosopher) :They are more powerful, Sir, than we, because they are wiser; knowledge will always predominate over ignorance, as man governs the other animals. But why their knowledge is more than ours, I know not what reason can be give, but the unsearchable will of the Supreme Being.

• Knowledge is indeed power if it provides superior ways of sailing ships, digging up minerals, firing guns and curing sickness.

THC_CTMS 14S648_July2011

Western Europe led the world in

• Developing autonomous intellectual inquiry, scientific method of verification, research and its diffusion

– David Landes in “The Wealth and Poverty of Nations”

THC_CTMS 15S648_July2011

US Decline• US deficit 9% of GDP• From 2001 the US Federal debt in public hands

grew from 32% to 66%2021 2031 204790% 150% 300%

• Unfunded medicare & social security liabilities $100 Tln (7 times the GDP)

• US debt to Revenue ratio: 358%• Half of US debt is to foreigners: 1/5 to China• Sinic East X Mslm Greater Middle East

THC_CTMS 16S648_July2011

US & West Decline

• Private & public debt of USA – 3.5 times GDP• Urabia - 17 mln Muslims in EU• 9.8% in France; in UK they are growing

@6.7% p.a; by 2050 UK will be Muslim majority ( so can India)

THC_CTMS 17S648_July2011

World’s most 5 indebted countries

Debt % of GDP Debt per capita

USA $14.3 Tln 94% $43,000UK $9 Tln 416% $147,000Germany $5 Tln 155% $63,000France $ 5 Tln 188% $80,000Netherland $3.7 Tln 470% $ 2,26,000India’s external debt $ 260 bln ( Rs. 13 lakhs crores) internal debt $ 400 bln ( Rs. 18 lakhs crores) total debt $ 660 bln ; 50% of the GDP; per head Rs. 25,000 or $ 500

THC_CTMS 18S648_July2011

Islam& Christendom in Collision

• Islam under Baghdad Caliphate the pinnacle of power, Science & Technology with science &technology from captured India

• Baghdad destroyed by Mongols• Shift to Ottoman Turks (Mongols Westward)• The crusades-9 between 1095 & 1272 AD• Dark age in Christianity from destruction of

Rome in 410 AD onwards, by Goths to Reformation

THC_CTMS 19S648_July2011

Deng & Zheng He• “ No country that wishes to become developed

today can pursue closed-door policies. We have tasted this bitter experience ad our ancestors have tasted it. In the early Ming Dynasty in the reign of Yongle when Zheng He sailed the Western Ocean, our country was open. After Yongle died the dynasty went into decline. China was invaded. Counting from the middle of the Ming Dynasty to the Opium Wars, through 300 years of isolation China was made poor, and became backward and mired in darkness and ignorance. No open door is not an option”

THC_CTMS 20S648_July2011

China’s Rise• Chinese in eth fastest and biggest of all industrial

revolutions • In 26Y its GDP grew 10 times• It took 70Y for UK after 1830 to grow by a factor of 4• By 2013, China’s GDP will be world’s 10%• 2017 China overtakes USA ( by 2014 by PPP)• China overtook Germany & Japan in global surpasses USA

in 2011• 1950: West population 20%• By 2050 West population 10%• China buying gold at $1600/oz• China saves 40% of the GDP

THC_CTMS 21S648_July2011

China’s Rise• In regard to patents…China overtook Germany in Y 2007, Briton in

2004, Russia in 2005• China is world’s leading manufacturer of wind turbines and photo

voltaic cells• China invested $2.4 bln in 420 overseas enterprises in 75 countries;

Asia 45%; Africa 42% mainly in mining , petro chemicals & communications .

• 10% of Chinese are below poverty line (BPL), down form 40% in 1978

• 0.4% of house holds have 70% of eth nation’s wealth.• There are 30-38% more males than females In some provinces,

Anhui, Hainan, Guangdong, Jiangsi…• China’s rural population was 75% in 1990, 45% in 2011 30% in 2030

THC_CTMS 22S648_July2011

China’s Four Mores

• Consume more• Import more• Invest more abroad• Innovate more

THC_CTMS 23S648_July2011

Share of global GDP

Year USA Europe China India1500 1% 15% 25% 25%1700 1% 19 23% 25%1800 2% 20%% 30% 27%1850 7.5% 25% 25% 14%1900 15% 30% 14% 10%1950 27% 25% 5% 4%2000 19% 15% 12% 6%Source: “Civilisation the West and the Rest “by Niall Ferguson

THC_CTMS 24S648_July2011

Patents applied and granted in the period

2004 to 2008

Country Applied Granted Japan 391,002 176,950USA 456,321 157,772China 289,838 93,706Korea 170,632 83,523Europe 146,150 59,819UK 59,819 23,379India 36,812 18,230THC_CTMS S648_July2011 25(Source: Forbes India, Nov5,2010)

THC_CTMS S648_July2011 26

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

01980 1990 2000

Number of Research Papers Published

India China South Korea Israel Brazil

Years

No.

of

Pap

ers

Sou

rce:

Bus

ines

s W

orld

, 30

Jan

2006

Quality of Education (1)

THC_CTMS S648_July2011 271975 1975 1999

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

500

0

Number of PHD Degrees in Engineering

India China South Korea Japan Taiwan

Sou

rce:

Bus

ines

s W

orld

, 30

Jan

2006

Years

No.

of

Deg

rees

Quality of Education (2)

Quality of Our Research• Share(%) in published Research papers between

1994-2004India -2.6 (13) ; USA-38.5 ; Japan -10.3; Germany-9.5; UK-8.6; China-3.9 (9)

• Citations for Research papers publishedIndia- 3.17; Switzerland -13.01;

USA- 12.31; Neterlands-11.7; UK-10.4• Ranking colleges/ among world’s 500 Technical

InstitutesIndia- 2; China-30

THC_CTMS 28S648_July2011

Dhanyawad:Thank You

THC_CTMS 29S648_July2011