clem sunten games foxes play

8/9/2019 Clem Sunten Games Foxes Play

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Games Foxes Play

Planning for extraordinary times

Chantell Ilbury

Clem Sunter


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Chart 1: The Shooting Range

Ready Aim Fire!

Right time to

have theconversations

Develop

thestrategy

Determine

the tactics

Strategic

PlansOperational

Plans

Resonates with the Business Maturity Model Resonates with the Business Maturity Model


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Chart 2: The Cone of Uncertainty 1

Time

Degree

Of

uncertainty

StrategiesTactics

Present

Resonates with the 3 lenses Resonates with the 3 lenses


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3. Options

2.

a. Key uncertainties

b. Scenarios

4. Decisions

1. Rules of the game

Chart 3: The Prototype Matrix

Resonates with the PMOE Resonates with the PMOE

Control

Certainty

Absence of Control

Uncertainty


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Circles

Foxes

Games

Rimless Wagon Wheels

Hedgehogs

Dots

Chart 4: Likes and Dislikes

Hedgehogs are deep specialists Foxes are wiley, resourceful & fleet footedHedgehogs are deep specialists Foxes are wiley, resourceful & fleet footed


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Chart 5: Rimless Wagon Wheels

Resonates with dont box people and do encourage decision making Resonates with dont box people and do encourage decision making

Central

Cabal

Business

Unit Head

Business

Unit Head

Business

Unit Head

Business

Unit Head

BusinessUnit Head

Business

Unit Head

BusinessUnit Head

Business

Unit Head


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Chart 6: Conversation Circles

Resonates with our strategic approachResonates with our strategic approach

Field of Alignment


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Defining

the game

1.

Scope

2.

Players3.

Rules of

the game

4.Key

Uncertain-

ties

5.

Scenarios

PlayingThe game6.

SWOT

7.Options

8.Decisions

9.

Measurable

Outcomes

Chart 7: The Conversation Model

10.

Meaning of

Winning


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10. Meaning of Winning

Chart 8: Strategy to Action

7.

Options

8.

Decisions

9.

Measurable

Outcomes

ACTION

1.

Scope

2.

Players

3.

Rules ofthe game

4.

Key

Uncertain-

ties

5.

Scenarios

6.

SWOT

I

PAs

I

PAs

IPAs = issues for

Potential action


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Chart 14: The picture frame

P r o d u c t R a n g e

P r o d u c t C h a i n

M a r k e t S e g m e n t

G e o g r a p h i c a l F o o t p r i n t


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Chart 15: The Seven Frames

GLOBAL

NATIONAL

INDUSTRY

COMPANYBusinessUnits

Departments

Individuals


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Chart 16: The Looking Glass

Culture

Core Competencies

Organisational StructureBusiness Model

Resources

Location

The kind of introspective questions

you should be asking


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Chart 18: The Players Circle

Neutral

For Against


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Chart 20:The DNA Triangle

Aspirational

NormativeDescriptive

The shifting equilibrium of the rules of the game resonates with triangles


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Chart 21: The DNA Chain

Raw materials supplier

Producer

Wholesaler

Retailer

ConsumerD N

A


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Chart 22: The DNA Network

D N

A

Network

Supply

Chain

The game is complex, not one dimentional or linear


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Society Technology

Econom

yLaw

Environment

Po

litic

s

Chart 24: The flower of uncertainty

International

National

Local


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Chart 25: The PI chart 1

Unknown unknowns

Known unknowns

Predictability

ImpactLow

Low

High

High

Resonates with the momentum line


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Chart 26: The PI chart 2

Unknown unknowns

Predictability

ImpactLow

Low

High

High


Wild cards

Key uncertainties

Rules of the game


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Chart 27: The PI chart 3Predictability

Low

Impact

Low High

High


Key uncertainties

Rules of the game

1

4

3 10

2

5

6

7 8 9


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Chart 28: The HIV PI chartPredictability

Low

Impact

Low High

High

Key uncertainties

Rules of the game

Wild cards

Unknown unknowns

1980

1985

1995

2004Sub-Saharan

Africa

2004Western

Countries


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Scenario 4

(Draw)

Scenario 3

(Lose)

Scenario 1

(Win)

Scenario 2

(Draw)

Positive +

Positive+

Negative -

Negative -

Chart 30: The Scenario Gameboard 1


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Intermediate

Scenario

Worst- case

Scenario

Best-case

Scenario

Intermediate

Scenario

+

+

-

-


-

+-

+

Intermediate

Scenario

Worst- case

Scenario

Best-case

Scenario

Intermediate

Scenario

+

+

-

-


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Intermediate

Scenario

Worst-case

scenario

Best-case

scenario

Intermediate

Scenario

Positive +

Positive+

Negative -

Negative -



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Hard Times

The Perfect

Storm

Frictionless

Capitalism

Fragmented

World

Stable World

StrongMarket

Unstable World

WeakMarket

Chart 33: The Mulitnational Gameboard


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Stability +

Competitiveness

+

Stability -

CompetitiveNess -

Chart 34: The Country Gameboard

Middle

East

Third worlddictatorships

Argentina

Russia

South

Africa

Europe Australia

USA

Japan

China

Asian

Tigers


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Grindstone

Fubar

Gold Medal

Fools Paradise

Efficiency

+

Market +

Efficiency -

Market -

Chart 35 The Business Gameboard 1


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Grindstone

Fubar

Gold Medal

Fools Paradise

Efficiency

+

Market +

Efficiency -

Market -

Chart 36 The Business Gameboard 2

A

A

B

B


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Chart 41: The SWOT List

Scenario Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats

1

2

3

4


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Chart 43: The Ethical Compass

N

S

EW

Immoral

Moral

Illegal

legal


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Chart 44: The Option Dartboard 1High

HighLow

Resource

Input

Output

1

2

34

Exclusive

Inclusive


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Chart 45: The Option Dartboard 2High

HighLow

Resource

Input

Output

1

2

34

Low Leverage

High Leverage


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Chart 46: The SHE Curve

Low

Leverage

High

Leverage

Low

Leverage

0% Safe

100% Safe

Expenditure $

SHE = safety, health, environment


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Chart 47: The R&R graph

Return

Risk

Medium BetsLarge Bets Small Bets

The magnitude of

the bet is the %wealth on wager The riskis the

chance of

unintended failure

due to market,

cost, technical or

political factors or acombination

thereof. The return is the

return on capital

employed or the

IRR discounting all

future cash flows.


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Chart 49: The Decision Tree

D

IO

UO 0O

IO = intended outcome

UO = unintended outcome

0O = zero outcome


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Chart 52: The Incremental Staircase 1

Outcome

TIme

Ideal StaircaseLong-Term Goal


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Chart 53: The Incremental Staircase 2

Outcome

TIme

Ideal Staircase

Long-Term Goal

Actual Staircase

Resonates with our experience & business growth model


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Chart 55: The Kaleidoscope of Winning

Strongest

Brand

Most

Admired

Company

SafestOperation

Best

Employer

Highest

InvestmentReturn

Leading

Innovator

Supplier of

Choice

GreenOperation


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Defining

the game

PlayingThe game

Chart 7: The Conversation Model Full House

D

IOUO 0O

Intermediate

Scenario

Worst-case

scenario

Best-casescenario

IntermediateScenario

+

+

-

-

Society Technology

Eco

nomy

Law

Environment

Politic

s

Neutral

For Against

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