climate and swedish energy systems

1

Climat and the swedish energy systemPEPESEC - project meetingMalmö 2008-04-11

Anders NylanderArkitekt and energy expertsome of my former experiences

Chalmers University of Technology

Senior project manager of Biogas Syd,

Former Secretary in the Commission on oil independenceat the Prime Minister's Office

Former Secretary of DESS

Kommissionen mot oljeberoendet DESSThe Delegation of Energysuplyin South Sweden

Global carbon dioxide

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

GtC/year

OECD

Forna sovjetblocket

U-länder

carbon dioxide (tC/capita), 1998

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000Population (million)

tonn

esof

car

bon

per c

apita

USA

Canada, Australia, New Zealand

JapanOECD Europe

Russia

Other EIT

China

Middle East

IndiaOther Asia Africa

Latin America

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Oil N

on-c

onve

ntio

nalo

il

Nat

ural

gas

Non

-con

vent

iona

lnat

ural

gas

Coa

l

350

ppm

450

ppm

550

ppm

Bill

ion

tons

of c

arbo

n(G

tC)

ResourcesReservesCumulative CO2-targets

Lack of fossil fuels will not solve the problem CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

and the air temperature in Antarctic

the latestthe latest 400000 400000 yearyearfromfrom ”the Vostok ”the Vostok IceIce CoreCore””

Year 2100: c:a 700 ppm

Källa: www.ipcc.ch

År 2004:

377 ppm

2

Possible future CO2-emissions

Torpshammar in Sweden July 2000

Flooding, Assam, India, July 2004

2008

-04-

15 Sorce: Met Office

Summer 2003

2008

-04-

15

After the storm on January 8, 2005

3

2008

-04-

15

a hundred years is a short period

millions of climate workers

???

17

• Internationell dialog• Beredskapslager olja och gas• Diversifiering tillförsel och energikällor

Fullt Fullt integreradintegrerad,,

balanserad ochbalanserad ochömsesidigt förstärkandeömsesidigt förstärkande

energipolitikenergipolitik

EU energy politics three pillars

Miljömässighållbarhet

•Förnybar energi• Energieffektivisering•FoU alternativa teknologier• Utsläppshandel

Konkurrenskraft • Inre marknad el och gas• Överföringsförbindelser(Trans-Europeiska Nätverk)

• FoU alternativa teknologier

Försörjningstrygghet

The EU:s "20-20-20-2020" targets

20% less CO2 emissions20% energy use20% renewable energy

4

CO2 emissions per BNP and per inhabitant

EU:s klimatmål:

-20% jämfört med 1990

-14% jämfört med 2005

Handlande sektor-21% jämfört med

2005

Icke-handlande sektor-10% jämfört med 2005

27 medlemsstater, spännvidd -20% -- +20%Regler för övergång

från -20% till -30% för EU finns för/om en internationellreviderad överenskommelse

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

GDP/Cap (000 €)

Red

uctio

n ta

rget

s N

on-E

TS c

ompa

red

to 2

005

20%: BG19%:RO

17%: LV

14%: PL13%: SK

11%: EE10%: HU

9%: CZ

5%: MA

1%: PT

-5%: CY

-10%: ES

-13%: IT-14%: DE, FR

-14%: BE-16%: AT, FI, UK, NL

-17%: SE

-20%: DK, IE, LU

15%: LT

4%: SL

-4%: EL

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

GDP/Cap (000 €)

Red

uctio

n ta

rget

s N

on-E

TS c

ompa

red

to 2

005

20%: BG19%:RO

17%: LV

14%: PL13%: SK

11%: EE10%: HU

9%: CZ

5%: MA

1%: PT

-5%: CY

-10%: ES

-13%: IT-14%: DE, FR

-14%: BE-16%: AT, FI, UK, NL

-17%: SE

-20%: DK, IE, LU

15%: LT

4%: SL

-4%: EL

EU:s ansvarsfördelning - BNP per capita 20% FÖRNYBAR ENERGI 2020..

Från 8 % 2005 till 20 % 2020

Käla: EU Komissionen

Vad krävs av utvecklingfram till 2020

(~1700 TWh / 146 mtoe)

Is the target a new balance?

Den nya energi

tillförseln

Den nya energi

användningenNuvarande

tillförsel

Nuvarande

användning100%

uthålligenergi

>20% effek-tivare

använd-ning

Bridging Systems and tecnologis

5

Statsrådsberedningen

The Commission on Oil Independence Anders [email protected]+46 709 71 99 49


Why should we reduce the dependence on oil?

1. We reduce Sweden’s impact on the environment.2. We secure Sweden’s long-term energy supply.3. We can set a positive example by developing new

technology for sustainable and efficient energy use.4. We will strengthen our international economical

competitiveness.5. We use and develop the energy resources from

forests and fields, ”Sweden’s green gold”.

Kjell Aleklett

Statistics of found oil fields from 1900

Kjell Aleklett

The Oil Triangle

Qatar

Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60 percent of the remaining oil reserves in the world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy, says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of the world production of oil needs to come from the Oil Triangle.


The oil demand world wide

Oil consumption

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15

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25

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

year

mill

ions

of b

arre

ls p

er d

ay

USA China India EU15

Energy system boarders (economy, technology and market)

6


How can we reduce the use of oil?

There are three possibilities of principle:

• Increased efficiency in the energy generating processes and supply systems

• Fuel substitution

• More efficient end use ofenergy


Energy supply in Sweden 2004

Total energy supplied in Sweden 2004

1

60

110

78

30

137

149

70

9

6

0 50 100 150 200 250

Wind power

Hydroelectric power

Biofuels, peat, etc.

Heat pumps in distr. heating

Nuclear fuel

Natural gas, town gas, propane, butane

Coal, coke

Crude oil, oil products

TWh


How much oil do we use in Sweden today?

End-use energy distributed among sectors in Sweden

2004

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Industry

Housing, service, etc.

Domestic transport

TWh Biofuel, peat, etc Ethanol Distr. heating El. natural gas, town gas, propane, butane Coal, coke oils


How are we going to reducethe use of oil?

• We will use the energy in a more efficient way.

• We will invest in renewable fuels from forests and fields.


Which main goals are suggested for 2020 by the Commission?

• Sweden’s energy use should be reduced by 20%.

• The use of petrol and diesel in road transports should be lowered by 40-50 %.

• No use of oil for heating of houses and premises.

• 25-40 % less use of oil in the industry.


Variations in energy-use related to “life style” factors

• Etot total energy consumed (electricity, heat or cooling)• n and V are life-style factors

– n is number of appliances– V is amount consumed (e.g. indoor temperature, amount of

tap water)

• Espec is specific energy used (defined by technology)

spectot EVnE ××=

spectot EVnE ××=

7

Belysning i Belysning i korridorer CSK, Kristianstadkorridorer CSK, Kristianstad

Avd 43Avd 4322 W/mW/m22

3 1003 100 kWh/år kWh/år 2 2002 200 kr/årkr/år

MottagningMottagning1717 W/mW/m22

13 00013 000 kWh/år kWh/år 9 0009 000 kr/årkr/år Statsrådsberedningen

CONCENTRATION OF EFFORTS ON FUELS FROM SWEDISH

FORESTS AND FEILDS

Food

Fibers

Cultural heritage

Recreation

Eco-system services

Biological multitude

Changes of fuel mix in district heating systems in Sweden

Fuel mix 1981

Other 5%

Coal 3%

Waste heat 3%Waste material 5%

Oil 84%

Heat delivery 27 TWh

Fuel mix 2001

Olja 7%

Peat 5%

Pine oil(Tallbeckolja) 3%

Waste material 11%

Waste heat 9% Bio gas 1%

Hot water 9%

Heat pump 14%

Electricity3%

Natural gas 6%

Wood fuels 28%

Other 3%Kol 2%

Heat delivery ≈ 46,5 TWh

Wood chips 2%

Källa: Svensk Fjärrvärme


TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE BUILDINGS: A SURVEY ON

POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS OF THE EXISTING BUILDING STOCK

Anders Nylander, Filip JohnssonDepartment of Energy and Environment

Chalmers University of TechnologySE 412 96 Göteborg

CIBW70 2006 Trondheim International Symposium, Changing User Demands on Buildings, Trondheim, June 12 – 14


Aim of this work• to identify and systemize potentials for

increased energy efficiency and substitution of fuel and heating systems in the existing building stock

• to group potentials with respect to influencing factors, including operational and life-style factors

• to discuss on policy measures to use some of the potentials identified in this work

8


Building sector – CO2 reduction strategies

• increase energy efficiency• substitute fuels• reduce demand.

investments in the power and heat generation side are mainly governed by business logics and related to public economy, investments in the demand side belong to the private household economy (residential buildings) - dependent on consumer preferences and consumer behaviour etc


• Majority of works in literature addressing energy efficiency in buildings are related to technical measures, but…

• also the way building owners operate and manage their buildings (“life-style” factors) can significantly influence the energy performance of a building

• improvement in energy efficiency based on operational measures should constitute a low cost (or no-regret) option compared to technical measures

Previous work and experiences


Transforming the energy system for buildings- some difficulties

• Consumer preferences and consumer behavior– investments in energy efficiency measures compared to

spending on other goods which gives more immediate and direct satisfaction

• Difficult for consumers to coordinate goals and interpret information from governmental boards and markets with respect to strategies for development of buildings and heating market


Method


Southern Sweden


Method• The analysis is based on a combination of field

experiences with database analysis on energy use in the building sector.

• The variations in energy use identified in case studies and by measurements are applied to the housing stock of the database, thereby providing estimates on the total impact of the variations identified.

9


Example field experience hospital

Savings28 % heat10% electricityRegion Skåne & tac


Method - include capital stock and take local conditions into account

• The energy infrastructure – the buildings with heating systems (e.g. age structure, geographical variations, heat density) provided by a database (Southern Sweden)

• The database gives a detailed description of the energy infrastructure of the region (> 50 000 items)

• The region studied is large enough for the results to be assumed representative for Sweden as a whole


Variations in energy-use related to “life style” factors

• Etot total energy consumed (electricity, heat or cooling)• n and V are life-style factors

– n is number of appliances– V is amount consumed (e.g. indoor temperature, amount of

tap water)

• Espec is specific energy used (defined by technology)

spectot EVnE ××=

spectot EVnE ××=


Ref, Nässén & Holmerg CTH 2005


Grouping of the reductions potentials

1.1. Change in life style Change in life style –– simple simple (mainly n and V)(mainly n and V)

2.2. Increased efficiency in operation of houseIncreased efficiency in operation of house3.3. Technical measures Technical measures –– simple simple

(mainly E(mainly Especspec))4.4. Technical measures Technical measures –– extensive extensive

(mainly E(mainly Especspec))5.5. Measures on overall energy system Measures on overall energy system

(mainly E(mainly Especspec system factors)system factors)6.6. Change in life style Change in life style –– extensive extensive

(mainly n (mainly n ochoch V)V)


Results - examples

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• Large potential for reducing electricity for heating• Current trend on the heating market does not seem to

be in line with this goal, but rather exhibiting a slight increase in electricity for heating.

• Based on an analysis of the database used in this paper, Johansson et al (2006) propose a strategy to replace the heating systems which results in a 47% reduction in primary energy use for heating with a 34% decrease in heat demand and a reduction of CO2 with 77%

Energy infrastructure – trends in replacement of heating systems

Type 5


0

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64 identical single-family houses

kWh/

m2 ,y

ear

Variation in energy use (heating and lighting) in 64 almost identical residential buildings (single-family houses) in the village “Stångby” in Southern Sweden [V]

energy use varies with a factor of around 2.5!

Espec

Type 1 & 2


Potentials for reduction in heat demand in all single-family and two-family houses as obtained from applying lower quartile of data in

previous slide to the database of Southern Sweden [V]

0

20

4060

80

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120140

160

180

GW

h/ye

ar

The 67 municipalities of Southern Sweden

Σ 4.2 TWh potentialfor energy conservation(total heat demand is 10 TWh)

Type 1 & 2


0

1

2

3

4

5

The 67 municipalities of Southern Sweden

GW

h/ye

ar

Example : Reduction in heat demand. From replacement of 2 glass windows with high performance 3 glass windows (single and two-family

houses of Southern Sweden) [Espec ]

Type 4


Major potentials calculated in this work based on the field studies applied to the database of Southern Sweden.

Residential houses

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000

Net heat demand equal to "best performing" municipalityReduced floor area (=floor area of "best performing" municipality

CHANGE IN LIFE STYLE - EXTENSIVE (n, V)Fuel substitution according to energy system optimization

MEASURES ON ENERGY SYSTEM (Espec, regional)Additional insulation facades (single and two-family houses)

Additional insulation attics (single and two-family houses)Heat exchanging of incoming air

Heat exchanging of incoming air, low cost optionsReplacement of windows (in 75% of building stock)

Replacement of windows (low cost option in single and two-family houses)TECHNICAL MEASURES - EXTENSIVE (Espec)

Installations of sun panels (single and two-family houses)Removal of cold spotsReduced air in eakageReplacement of piping

Replacing water heaters (single and two-family houses)Energy efficient water taps (single and two-family houses)

TECHNICAL MEASURES - SIMPLE (Espec)Improved control systems for central heating (single and two-family

Improved control systems for local heaters (single and two-family houses)Reduced airing in empty flats

INCREASED EFFICIENCY IN OPERATION (n, V)tap water

indoor temperatureairing

CHANGE IN LIFE STYLE - SIMPLE (n, V)CHANGES IN ENERGY USE

Electricity for household services and for common purpose (Etot net)Electricity for household services (Etot net)

Total heat demand (Etot net)Total heat demand (Etot net)

CURRENT ENERGY USE

GWh

Single and two-family buildings Apartment blocks


• Mapping of a number of life-style factors yields large potential for increased energy efficiency

• Low, or no cost, options• Problem to create incentives/policy

measures to realize potentials

Summary from applying field experiences to database of energy infrastructure of

Southern Sweden

11


Discussion on policy measuresType of measure Example of measure Requirements/policy Change in life style - simple (mainly n and V)

Life style influences energy use from e.g. choice of indoor temperature, airing habits, consumption of hot water and electricity

Information and feed back, cost of energy (heat and electricity) based on hourly measurement of consumption

Increased efficiency in operation of house

To use the technical systems/appliances in a more efficient way

Efficient and well educated tenant/management organization of building.

Technical measures - simple (mainly Espec)

Sealing of window, adjustment of heat distribution system, water saving appliances (e.g. WC), sun protection etc.

Efficient and well educated tenant/management organization of building. Easily accessible investment budget

Technical measures - extensive (mainly Espec)

Improved thermal insulation, window replacement, upgrading of ventilation system, replacement of pumps etc.

Economic incentives, knowledge, to take advantage of opportunities during renovations

Measures on overall energy system (mainly Espec system factors)

Matching supply and demand side and to take regional differences into account to reduce primary energy use

Efficient and clear governmental and regional planning and clear and long term policy measures

Change in life style - extensive (mainly n och V)

To reduce space for living, less travelling etc. Information and long term changes in perceptions on global influence from energy use

1

2

3

4

5

6


Conclusions - I• Significant potential for increase in energy

efficiency in the building sector of the region studied (and thereby for Sweden as a whole).

• Possibilities to increase energy efficiency are not only related to technical factors but also to what is here call life-style factors –the ways buildings are operated and managed.

A Cooperation Project in South Sweden

for the environment and employment

Why biogas in Skåne?It is a good tool in the Regional Development Program. It is good for the agricultural sectorWe have biogas research of high international class.We have several biogas technology companies here. We have users like Skånetrafiken (public transportations)There is a growing market for biogas

The Biogas puzzel

några av våra deltagare

12

Well-to-wheel-resultat

Fuels 2010

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)

WTW

GHG

emiss

ions (

g CO2

eqv /

100 k

m)

Conventional gasoline

Conventional diesel

RME: Gly as chemical

RME: Gly as animal feed

Syn-diesel: CTL

Syn-diesel: GTL

Syn-diesel: Farmed wood

Syn -diesel: Waste wood, Black liqour

DME: CTL

DME: GTL

DME: Farmed wood

DME: Waste wood, Black liqour

EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as AF

EtOH: Sugar cane (Brazil)

EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as fuel

EtOH: Farmed wood

EtOH: Wheat straw

EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as AF

EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as fuel

EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as AF

EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as fuel

Biogas, municipal waste

Biogas, liquid manure

Biogas, dry manure

CTL

GTL-DME

GTL-Syndiesel

Ethanol (pure)RME

Black Liquor Gasification


Gasification

Gasoline and diesel

Fuels 2010

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)

WTW

GHG

emiss

ions (

g CO2

eqv /

100 k

m)

Conventional gasoline

Conventional diesel

RME: Gly as chemical

RME: Gly as animal feed

Syn-diesel: CTL

Syn-diesel: GTL

Syn-diesel: Farmed wood

Syn -diesel: Waste wood, Black liqour

DME: CTL

DME: GTL

DME: Farmed wood

DME: Waste wood, Black liqour

EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as AF

EtOH: Sugar cane (Brazil)

EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as fuel

EtOH: Farmed wood

EtOH: Wheat straw

EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as AF

EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as fuel

EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as AF

EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as fuel

Biogas, municipal waste


Biogas, dry manure

CTL

GTL-DME

GTL-Syndiesel

Ethanol (pure)RME

Black Liquor Gasification


Gasification

Gasoline and diesel

(Källa: Patrik Klintbom med data från Eucar/Concawe/JRC 2005)

www.volvocar.com BIOGAS BÄST!

Regionbiogasbuss

71

Klimatberedningen

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Diesel, milj literNaturgas, milj Nm3Biogas, milj Nm3

Bussbränsleutvecklingen En metafor för Skånes energiomstälningsstrategi

tillförselvisioner

industri

transporter

bost o service

tillförsel

Cirklarna från centrumA. Skånes omställnings-

visionB. Möjliga åtgärds-

områdenC. Skånes strategiska val

1. effektivisering Tr2. effektivisering Ind3. effektivisering BoS4. biogas5. vindkraft6. sol

D. Skånska åtgärder, exempel på nya och pågående

E. Nationella och inter-nationella åtgärder och system som stödjer en positiv utveckling

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66

A

BC

D

E

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Skåne is a part of Tellus....

climate and swedish energy systems

Documents

reduction targets non

energy use20

co2 emissions20

atmosphere and

climat and

problem co2 concentration

swedish energy systempepesec

target a new balance