International Meeting on Land Use and Emissions in South/Southeast Asia

Ho Chi Minh , October 17-19, 2016

Climate Change Affecting Land Use in the Mekong Delta: Adaptation of Rice-based

Cropping Systems (CLUES)Nguyen Hieu Trung,

Climate Change Research InstituteEmail: nhtrung@ctu.edu.vn

Can Tho University

Why CLUES?

Rice landOther annual

crops Perennialcrops

Red River

Mekong0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Area ('000 ha)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

2005

Ric

e pr

oduc

tion

('000

t)

Other

Red River

Mekong

(a) (b)

• Main rice production: > 50% rice (~20 mil tons/year)

• Threats – Problem soils: 60 % (acid

sulphate & saline soils)– Dry season:

• Reduce fresh water resources• Local droughts• Salt water intrusion .

– Rainy season:• tidal flooding• extreme weather events

– Upstream development (more water uses, hydro-power dams)

– Climate change and sea level rise

Climate Change Affecting Land Use in the Mekong Delta: Adaptation of Rice-based

Cropping Systems (CLUES)

• Overall objectives is to increase theadaptive capacity of rice productionsystems in the Mekong Delta Region.

• Its immediate objective the provision of technologies and knowledge to farmers and management agencies that will improve food security in the Mekong Delta.

March-2011 to Sep-2015

An Giang:Deep Flood Zone

Bac Lieu:Saline Zone

Can tho:Alluvial soil

Hau Giang:Acid Sulphate soils

2010

Field study sites

Disciplinary Fields in CLUES

Theme 6Hydrological

ModelingPlant

Breeding

Natural Resource Man.

Socio-economics

Land Use Planning

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Theme 1

Theme 2

Theme 3Theme 4

Theme 5

Experimental sites:

Hau GiangAn GiangCan ThoBac Lieu

Local stakeholders

Regional scale Field scale

Inte

rnat

iona

l Con

sulta

nts

Theme 1: Location-specific impact and vulnerability assessment

Identify potential production constraints for future production

Assessing hydrological impacts of different sea level rise scenarios

HYDRAULIC MODELING

Available data & Study

Mapping of Flood Depth and Salinity Level

GIS &RS

Assessment of climate change impacts on rice production in the 4 target area

Spatial Analysis

Mapping of Vulnerability and Hot Spot

GIS & Spatial Analysis

•Trend of Climate Change•Scenarios of SLR & CC•Upstream development

•Identify present hydrological regime•Sensitivity analysis of hydrological conditions •Series of maps for flooding or

salinity

•Impact assessment of CC on rice production•Apply for planning of landuse and climate change adaptation •Spatial and tabular impact of

Climate Change and SLR•Orientated for Planing of Land used and climate change adaptation

Support the Mekong Delta Study :+More understood about the impact of CC+ Policy on adaptation and mitigation

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

4th

Date with flood depth hazard > 0.4 m for > 7 daysSLR 30 cm(High flow year)

Change in flood onset dateDate with flood depth hazard > 0.4 m for > 7 daysBaseline (High flow year)

Days earlier thanbaseline

01 – 15

15 – 3030 – 45 45-60>60

Before 15/7 1/7 – 15 /715/7 – 31/71/8 – 15 /815/8 – 30/81/9 – 15/9After 15/9

Flood onset dateBefore 15/7 1/7 – 15 /715/7 – 31/71/8 – 15 /815/8 – 30/81/9 – 15/9After 15/9

Flood onset date

Effect of Sea Level Rise 30 cm on changed in flood onset date

Sea Level Rise 30cmLow water year

Baseline Window:Low water year

Sea Level Rise 15cmLow water year

No irrigation by gravityPotential supply fresh water by gravityPotential supply brackish water by gravity369

554

781

156

237

328

- 200 400 600 800 1,000

Baseline LWY

LWY + SLR 15 cm

LWY + SLR 30 cm

Protential area (103ha)

Brackish water Fresh Water

J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N o v D e c

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Salin

ity (g

/l)

Elev

atio

n (m

, am

sl)

3 10 62 184 286 283 248 297 298 166 45 3Monthly rainfall (mm)

Salinity at Phuoc Long

Hydrology - cropping systems in salinity-risk zone

Hydrology - cropping systems in flood-risk zone

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Elev

atio

n (m

, am

sl)

Max WL:2000 Min WL:2000 Land level

Monthly rainfall (mm) 220 150 107 152 196 191

Theme 2. Improvement of salinity and submergence resilience of locally-adapted rice varieties and elite lines

To improve tolerance of rice germplasm to a variety of direct and indirect impacts of climate change

Theme 3: Managing resources for resilient rice-based systems coping with rapidly changing environments• Developing / refining farming management options for different agro-

ecological zones • Improved understanding of element cycling, soil-plant and cropping

systems responses to altered hydrology (including impacts of CC and SLR).

Resource /intervention management study

Demonstration, dissemination and EVALUATION

Soil WaterCrop

Applying of promising techniques:- Alternate wet and dry (AWD) - Reduced Phosphorus - Cropping system of Rice+ upland crop, rice (short-duration, high yield) – shrimp.

Comparison of cost, return and profit of two cropping systems

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Total cost Gross return Net profit

Valu

e (M

illio

n VN

D/ha

)

Triple ricecropping

Rice-2Cucumbers-Rice

0

1

2

3

4

5Human

Social

NaturalPhysical

Financial

Ta Danh

Vinh Trach

Theme 4: Analysis of farming systems and socio-economic settings in rice farming households• identify the biophysical, social and economic factors determining the

capacity of farmers to adapt to CC.• understand the role of key institutions in influencing farmers’ decisions

and capacity to adapt, and• evaluate the benefits of the new rice varieties in terms of the extent of

adaptive capacity they are likely to confer under projected future CC and socio-economic conditions.

012345

salin

ity

high

tem

pera

ture

subm

erge

nce

shor

t-gro

wdu

ratio

n

logg

ing

"pes

ts"

Tolerance characteristics

Cor

es o

f im

porta

nce

floodalluvialacidicsaline

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

Flood Alluvial Acidic Saline

Tech

nica

l effi

cien

cy

UnfavourableFavourable

Current agriculture land use

Act 5.4. Biophysical Land

Evaluation

Suitability and yield/LMU

Available Area

Available capital Available labor

LUTs’ cost/LMU

Require labor/LUT/LMUProduction priceAct. 5.5. Socio-

economic, policy analysis

Act. 5. 6 Landusescenarios analysis

Acts

. 5.1

, 5.2

, 5.3

: Bio

phys

ical

cond

ition

m

appi

ng (

Soils

, wat

er m

anag

emen

t)

LMU

Act. 5.7: Lesson learn for a new CCA land use strategy approach

Decision support information (graphs, maps, tables,

reports)

LU allocation of scenario 1

LU allocation of scenario 2…

Theme 5: land use planning An integrated approach with stakeholder engagement

• Scenarios: Current, future (normal, dry, wet years), technical levels• Obj functions: Regional income• Constraints: Land, capital, labor• Market limitation: Vegetable ( ≤ local consumption) • Production targets: Rice, shrimp, salts production

Theme 6. Assessing GHG emissions and Capacity building • Record baseline emissions from conventional management and

adaptation technologies.• Provide training and scientific infrastructure facilitating initial GHG

emission measurements in rice systems.parameters Methodology Notes

Water management AWDCF

P rates (P2O5) P0P1 (37,5)P2 (75)

P omission1/3 Farmer dosage2/3 Farmer dosage

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

4

CF AWD

E. ra

te (m

g/m

2*h)

CH4

N2O

0123456789

P0 P1 P2

Emis

sion

(mg/

m2*

h)

CH4N2O

• Participatory approach increase acceptability and applicability of the project outputs reduce risks to the local people livelihoods.– Farmers: Participatory Variety Selection (Theme 2), Testing

of new varieties, new farming techniques (theme 2, 3, 4), land use strategy for CCA (theme 5).

– Seed companies (Theme 2 and 3).– Agriculture extension services (Theme 2, 3, 4, và 5).– DARD and DONRE (All themes).

Lessons learned

• Integrated approach increase credibility of the project outputs including information to support decision marking in management, planning, and policy. – Multi- disciplinary: Natural (theme 1 and 2), environment

(theme 6), socio-economic (theme 3,4, and 5). All aspects (theme 5).

– Trans-boundary impacts (theme 1)– Agro-ecological specific of the MD.– Short term- Long term: Farming techniques at community,

households (autonomous adaptation, short term) and provincial CCA land use strategy (planed adaptation, long term)

Lessons learned

• Capacity building:– Capacity for multi-disciplinary project management to

coordinate different national and international research institutions.

– Appropriate research approach, methodologies, and facilities for Vietnamese research university and institutes.

– Strengthening the collaboration among Vietnamese and International research institution for further research in the Mekong Delta in specific, Vietnam in general.

– Local stakeholders: knowledge on CC and CC’s impacts (theme 1, 4, and 5), new farming technology (theme 2, 3), CCA land use analysis tools (theme 5)

Lessons learned

Contact: nhtrung@ctu.edu.vnThank you for your attention

Climate Change Affecting Land Use in the Mekong Delta: Adaptation of Rice-based Cropping Systems (CLUES)

Reports: http://aciar.gov.au/publication/fr2016-07