climate change: an unfunded mandate

8/22/2019 Climate Change: An Unfunded Mandate

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Climate Change

An Ununded Mandate

By Fran Sussman, Cathleen Kelly, and Kate Gordon October 2013


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Climate ChangeAn Ununded Mandate

By Fran Sussman, Cathleen Kelly, and Kate Gordon October 2013


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1 Introduction and summary

4 Whats past is prologue

8 How much will responding to climate change

cost the United States?

17 Reducing the long-term cost of climate change

25 Conclusion

26 About the authors & Acknowledgements

27 Endnotes

Contents


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1 Center or American Progress | Climate Change: An Ununded Mandate

Introduction and summary

Tere are many reasons why we should do somehing abou climae change. One

o hem is ha we canno aord no o.

oughly one year ago, Supersorm Sandy swep along he easern seaboard rom

Florida o Maine, evenually reaching as ar wes as Ohio and Michigan.1 Te hur-

ricane caused more han 150 deahs, damaged 659,000 homes, and disruped mil-

lions o lives as ransi sysems, cellular phone neworks, and oher criical services

ailed or closed.2 Te region suered $65 billion in damages and economic losses,including power ouages ha emporarily closed 200,000 small businesses and

led o 2 million los workdays.3 Almos a year laer, in Sepember, a caasrophic

Colorado sorm dumped a years worh o rain in abou 24 hours, washing away

roads in Boulder and nearby owns and causing housands o people o ee.4 Te

sorm caused eigh deahs and an esimaed $2 billion in propery losses.5

Unorunaely, Supersorm Sandy and he Colorado oods are no isolaed evens.

In ac, a Cener or American Progress analysis rom his pas February compiled

daa rom he Naional Oceanic and Amospheric Adminisraion, or NOAA, and

ound ha here were 25 exreme weaher evens in 2011 and 2012 alone ha

caused a oal o $188 billion in economic losses.6 Over he pas hree decades, he

requency o hese billion-dollar evens has increased dramaicallyrom an annual

average o ewer han wo such evens per year in he 1980s o an annual average

o more han nine evens rom 2010 o 2012.7 Scieniss are increasingly nding

evidence direcly linking exreme weaher evenssuch as he ooding caused by

Sandy, as well as he Unied Saes high emperaures in 2012o human-caused

climae change, suggesing ha observed rends are likely o coninue.8

In June, Presiden Barack Obama inroduced his Climae Acion Plan. Te planincludes a suie o execuive acions o curb U.S. emissions o hea-rapping gases

ha conribue o climae change, reerred o as greenhouse gasesor carbon

polluionwhen hey are emited by burning ossil uels. Te plan also includes

acions ha help prepare he naion or he consequences o a warmer world.9


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While hese execuive acions are necessary seps or he Unied Saes o help

rein in climae change and ake a global leadership role, he presiden canno solve

he climae crisis alone. Congress mus also ac bu sadly remains paralyzed. Te

longer we wai o ake meaningul and concree seps o signicanly reduce emis-

sions o hea-rapping polluion, he more we are going o experienceand have

o payhe seep coss o climae change.

esponding o climae change as i occurs, rebuilding and repairing damages, and

preparing or uure exreme weaher will be expensive. Even i he Unied Saes

akes massive seps o ackle climae change oday, he high levels o greenhouse

gas polluion already in he amosphere ensure ha he risks and consequences

o a warmer world will coninue o grow in he years o come. Even wih immedi-

ae acion o curb climae change risks, his will be expensive. Wihou acion,

however, he oal U.S. billor responding, rebuilding, and preparing or he

uurecould reach hundreds o billions o dollars annually. Tese coss will have

o be paid by already overburdened ederal, sae, local, and ribal governmensanddirecly and indireclyby he American people.

In ac, he coss o hese acions may well represen he larges ununded mandae

Congress has ever imposed on he American people.

Te Ununded Mandaes eorm Ac o 1995, or UMR, requires ha Congress

consider he cos burden ha may be imposed on sae, local, and ribal govern-

mens and he privae secor prior o proposing new legislaion. During he oor

debae on he legislaion ha became UMR, sponsors o he measure empha-

sized is role in bringing our sysem back ino balance, by serving as a check agains

he easy imposiion o ununded mandaes.10 Sae and local advocaes view

ununded mandaeswhich are enorceable duies imposed by he ederal govern-

men on sae and local governmensas inconsisen wih a radiional view o

American ederalism, which is based on cooperaion, no compulsion.11 While

Congresss ailure o ake acion on climae change may no all sricly wihin he

leter o UMR, i is cerainly wihin is spiri. Sae, local, and ribal governmens

will be orced o bear he burden and expense o needed acions o reac o and

reduce climae change risks o public healh, saey, and heir local economies.

In his repor, we assess he magniude o he coss o preparing or more exreme

weaher and oher climae change impacs ha Congress is imposing on sae,

local, and ribal governmens by ailing o enac policies o curb U.S. emissions

o hea-rapping polluion. o sop imposing a cosly ununded mandae on he

American people, we recommend ha Congress and he presiden ake immediae

acion in he ollowing hree areas.

The total

U.S. climate

change bill

or responding,

rebuilding, and

preparing or th

uturecould

reach hundreds

o billions o do

annually.


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Recognize and reverse the unfunded mandate

Congress mus assess he ununded mandae ha i is imposing on sae, local,

and ribal governmens by ailing o enac ambiious climae change policies.

Congress mus require ha all proposed energy legislaion undergo a carbonaudi o reveal is eec on carbon polluion. Bills ha do no mee a minimum

hreshold or perormance should be subjec o review and revision.

Adequately fund community resilience efforts

Congress mus creae a dedicaed und o suppor communiy resilience eors,

which reduce he coss o disaser response dramaically. As much as $4 in

response coss are saved by each dollar invesed in resilience eors.

Te presiden and ederal agencies mus make resilience a core aspec o ederal

disaser and inrasrucure assisance.

Congress mus adequaely und ederal programs ha provide sae and local

governmens wih he climae change risk inormaion and planning ools hey

need o make smar resilience invesmens. I mus also require more analysis o

he cos o climae inacion in he Naional Climae Assessmen.

Lower future climate change risks and disaster-response and rebuilding costs

Te presiden mus coninue o suppor and enorce he Environmenal

Proecion Agencys, or EPAs, carbon-polluion sandards or new and exising

power plans.

Congress mus enac legislaion and he presiden mus use exising EPA

auhoriy o reduce climae-changing super polluans.

Te presiden and Congress mus ac across he board o eliminae unnecessaryand oudaed ossil uel subsidies and o suppor emerging low- and no-carbon

energy-echnology soluions.

Congress mus ulimaely enac legislaion o pu a price on carbon.


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Whats past is prologue

Te U.N. Inergovernmenal Panel on Climae Change, or IPCC, saed unequivo-

cally in is Sepember 2013 repor ha he climae sysem is warming and ha

many o he observed changesincluding warming o he amosphere and ocean,

diminishing sea ice, and rising sea levelare occurring a raes unprecedened

over previous decades or even millennia. Te IPCC repor urher saes ha, I is

extremely likely ha human inuence has been he dominan cause o he observed

warming since he mid-20h cenurya viewpoin wih which 97 percen o he

worlds climae scieniss concur.12

Scieniss predic a liany o climaic changes, many o which are already uncom-

orably amiliar o us. Climae change has been clearly linked o global projec-

ions o increased inensiy and/or requency o exreme evenssuch as heavy

precipiaion, warm spells and hea waves, and drough in some regionsover he

coming cenury.13 Scieniss also predic ha he rends in ropical cyclone aciviy

in he Norh Alanic are likely o coninue, meaning ha uure sorms, such as

yphoons and hurricanes, will become more inense, wih larger peak wind speeds

and more heavy precipiaion.14 Tomas Socker, co-chair o he working group

ha produced he IPCC repor, urher warns ha, alhough here will be excep-

ions, As he Earh warms, we expec o see currenly we regions receiving more

rainall, and dry regions receiving less.15

Climae change is already alering wha we in he Unied Saes hink o as nor-

mal, as we cope no only wih exreme weaher evens bu also wih higher aver-

age emperauressomeimes coupled wih higher humidiyas well as changes

in he iming and amoun o rain and snowall, he lengh o seasons, and oher

aspecs o weaher ha aec daily lie.16 Climae will become more variable and

more dicul o predic and plan orno only over he course o a season burom one year o he nex.17

I he loss o lie, damages and economic losses, and he environmenal impacs

susained during recen exreme weaher evens are any indicaion o wha we

should expec in he uure, his new climae realiy comes wih a high price ag.

I the loss o

lie, damages

and economic

losses, and the

environmental

impacts sustain

during recent

extreme weathe

events are any

indication o wh

we should expe

in the uture, th

new climate rea

comes with a hi

price tag.


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Supersorm Sandy was he second-mos expensive hurricane in U.S. hisory

second only o Hurricane Karina. Sandy was also only 1 o 11 U.S. weaher and

climae disaser evens in 2012 ha caused losses exceeding $1 billion, according

o NOAAs Naional Climaic Daa Cener.18 Since 1980, here have been 144 such

evens, wih a oal cos exceeding $1 rillion in 2013 dollars.19

Tese esimaes ake ino accoun a wide range o insured and uninsured losses

rom exreme weaher evens, as well as relie coss borne by ederal, sae, and local

governmens. Bu hey also miss some criical impacs, such as he loss o lie; he

healh care coss associaed wih injuries and illness; he value o damaged and los

dunes, welands, and oher ecosysems; and a whole range o qualiy-o-lie impacs

ha go well beyond wha esimaes o disaser coss ypically capure. Mos cos

esimaes also do no ake ino accoun how disaser losses and damages aec he

broader economy, jobs, and income or how such coss may persis over ime.20

While much o he media atenion highlighs he damages associaed wihexreme sorms, he losses associaed wih oher climae evens, such as droughs

and wildres, are also disurbingly large.

Drough akes is oll on armers over ime, paricularly in regions, such as he

U.S. Souhwes, ha are already dry and expeced o become even drier in he

uure.21 Las years drough, which aiced more han hal o he Unied Saes

or much o 2012, cos an esimaed $30 billion in los harvess.22 In exas, he

2011 drough was he coslies in he saes recorded hisory, causing $5.2 billion

in crop and livesock losses, according o Exension Service economiss. 23 A loss

o his magniude is equivalen o one-quarer o he value o agriculural pro-

ducion in a ypical exas year, and is eecs on agriculural oupu may well go

beyond he drough year.24

In 2012 alone, wildres desroyed more han 9.3 million acres across he Unied

Saes, wih an esimaed aggregae cos o $1 billion.25 Tese damages were

equaled, or in some cases surpassed, by he wildres ha occurred in 2011, 2009,

and 2008.26 Te economic damage caused by he recen Yosemie im res in

Caliornia, which as o early Ocober had scorched more han 250,000 acres o

naional oresland and parkland, have ye o be oaled.27

Noneheless, given hemagniude o he damage, i is likely ha economic and oher losses ied o imber,

ourism, ecosysems, and wildlie will be signican.


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Moneary measures, however, do no capure all he poenial damages rom wild-

res. According o research published in heProceedings o the National Academy

o Sciences, Coninued warming could compleely ransorm re aciviy in he

greaer Yellowsone ecosysem by he middle o his cenury, wih proound

consequences or many species and or ecosysem services including aesheics,

hydrology, and carbon sorage.28

Yellowsone and Yosemie are no alone in beinghighly vulnerable o wildre; he Naional Park Service is working o develop

re-managemen sraegies o reduce he danger a oher naional parks, such as

Glacier Naional Park in Monanas Norhern ockies and Saguaro Naional Park

in Souhern Arizona.29

Bu changes in average climae condiionswha we migh call everyday

climaealso ake a bie ou o our walles and he economy. Warmer average

emperaures will aec sociey in many ways, including by producing hea sress

and illness, paricularly or he elderly and poor; shorening working hours or

oudoor workers; and creaing ravel delays or business ravelers and peoplecommuing o work and school, as rail racks and armacs buckle in he exreme

hea. Increased precipiaion will also come wih coss rom ooding and prop-

ery damage, consrucion delays, and ransporaion accidens. Similarly, hoter

and drier weaher and earlier snowmel will resul in Wesern wildres sar-

ing earlier in he year, lasing laer ino he all, and damaging more homes and

oress. Te eecs will be as numerous and varied as he ways in which climae

inuences livelihoods and daily lie.30

Ye no every weaher evenwheher disasrous or merely unpleasan and poen-

ially cosly over imecan be laid a he doorsep o climae change. Alhough

scieniss have long sressed a relaionship beween climae change and he occur-

rence o some exreme evens generally,31 unil recenly, hey have been less willing

o exend ha ie o individual evens such as Hurricane Sandy.

Climae scieniss draw an analogy beween he eecs o climae change on

exreme weaher and baseball players who sar aking seroids and begin hiting

20 percen more homeruns han beore. While we canno say wheher any indi-

vidual homerun is he resul o seroids, we can say ha seroid use has increased

he probabiliy o a homerun by 20 percen. Where climae change is concerned,scieniss can calculae he changed odds ha an individual exreme weaher or

climae even can be atribued o climae change.32


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A special Sepember 2013 issue o heBulletin o the American Meteorological

Society presens 18 analyses o 12 dieren exreme weaher evens ha occurred

around he world in 2012. Te ndings suppor he conclusion ha human-

induced climae change played a key role in abou hal o he evens assessed,

wih he remainder inuenced primarily by naural weaher ucuaions. Findings

abou prolonged periods o high emperaures are paricularly sriking: More hanone-hird o he hea waves experienced in he easern Unied Saes beween

March and May 2012 can be atribued o human-induced climae change. Pu

anoher way, we should expec high emperaures such as hose in 2012 o occur

our imes as ofen as hey did in he pas.33 Te ndings also sugges ha he

climae change-relaed increases in sea level ha have already occurred have nearly

doubled he probabiliy o Sandy-level inundaion relaive o 60 years ago. Te

implicaion is ha Sandy-level ooding will occur more requenly in he uure,

even or less-inense sorms.34

Boh o hese rendsrising degrees o hea and sorm damagesare ied direclyo climae change. Te recen pas is, indeed, prologue o wha he Unied Saes

should expec in he uure.

We should expe

high temperatu

such as those in

2012 to occur

our times as

oten as they

did in the past.


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How much will responding

to climate change cost the

United States?

Te pas decade oers a preview o he ype o climae change impacs ha he

Unied Saes is likely o experience going orward. As exreme weaher evens

become more requen and more severe, governmens a every level will need

o respond by providing more emergency relie and recovery aid. We will also

need o reac rouinely o he new realiies o climaeby repairing bridges and

roadways and dredging pors more ofen, reaing increased incidence o climae-

relaed disease, purchasing more air condiioners, changing which crops we grow

where, and a hos o oher small and large changes.

We can reduce hese coss by building climae resilience ino our inrasrucure

and insiuions so ha we are less vulnerable o uure weaher evens. Acions

ha can scale back he long-erm coss and impacs o climae change include:

Improving building codes and srenghening ransporaion inrasrucure

raining docors and expanding healh care aciliies

Developing more drough-resisan crops

Proecing welands and oher naural sysems ha reduce sorm surges in

coasal areas and reduce ood risks along rivers

Modiying land use and developmen paterns o minimize ood damages

Unorunaely, here is no comprehensive naional sudy o climae-resilience coss.

Bu he available evidence pains a picure suggesing ha, in aggregae, he com-

bined coss o responding o climae change risks, rebuilding in he wake o moreexreme sorms, and making communiies more resilien o uure weaher-relaed

disasers are likely o be in he ens o hundreds o billions o dollars annually.


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Sae and local governmens are beginning o recognize he risks ha climae

change poses o heir communiies, and hey are aking seps o proec agains

uure changes. In Grand apids, Michigan, or example, Mayor George K.

Hearwell is aking acion o proec his ciy rom exreme weaher and oher

climae change risks. He noes:

Te City o Grand Rapids is addressing various climate-related threats such as

extreme heat and more intense precipitation events. We see these climate strate-

gies as an extension o responsible governance and an imperative investment in

the uture prosperity o our city. As an inland watershed city, we have ocused

on restoring and maintaining a high quality o water in the Grand River with

over $240 million in combined sewer separation investment. Tis prepares us or

ever-increasing precipitation levels now and into the uture.35

Wih a populaion o 189,000 people in 2012 and a ciy budge o $308 million,

hese cosspaid by he ciy hrough a mix o bonds, loans, ederal assisance, andcapial-projecs nancingare signican, even when spread ou over a number

o years.36 No all ciies will ace he same ypes o issues as Grand apids, bu i

hese coss are represenaive o he magniude o per-capia coss we expec o see

naionally, hen addressing climae hreas could run up a oal bill o more han

$400 billion over he nex 20 years.37

A number o oher counies and ciies have aken iniial seps o proec heir com-

muniies rom climae change. In Washingon sae, or example, he King Couny

Flood Conrol Disric has spen an average o $100,000 per home o assis

propery owners wih home elevaion.38 Seatles Public Uiliies Deparmen has

implemened several pilo projecs o improve he abiliy o urban areas o ac

as naural drainage sysems and absorb runo during heavy rainall and ooding

evens, a an average cos o $280,000 per block.39

Many oher ciies and saes are considering acions, wih oal coss ranging rom

a ew million dollars o almos $1 billion. Te Ciy o Puna Gorda, Florida, or

example, is spending $13.8 million on replacing sea walls ha proec he down-

own area rom sea-level rise and sorm surges.40 By conras, he Massachusets

Waer esources Auhoriy is spending more han $850 million on combinedsewer-overow projecs o proec beaches, shellsh beds, and oher sensiive

waers.41 As Washingon, D.C., Mayor Vincen Gray saed:


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We cannot avoid or ignore the evidence o the increased risk a changing climate

poses to the saety o our residents or the health o our economy. We are commit-

tedacross government and the private sectorto act so that we can ensure

that our city is prepared or these coming challenges.42

Despie he real need on he par o governmens and he privae secor o under-sand he coss o managing curren and uure climae risks, litle work has been

done o esimae hese coss naionally. A March Climate Policy aricle surveyed

exising esimaes o he cos o adaping o projeced climae change in he Unied

Saesboh rouine acions and hose ha promoe resilience in he uure.43

able 1 exracs he cos esimaes rom he mos recen and comprehensive sud-

ies in each secor ha are repored in he aricle and convers hem ino annual

coss. For mos secors sudied, annual coss could range rom several billion dol-

lars o ens o billions o dollars.

TABLE 1

Recent estimates of annual costs of adapting to climate change

in the United States, in 2010 dollars

Sector Actions considered in study Rough annual costs, in 2010 dollars

Coastal protection Shoreline armoring and grade elevation $2 billion to $3 billion per year through 2100

Inrastructure

paved and unpaved roadsMaintenance and design changes Around $2 billion in 2050

Inrastructurebridges Strengthening vulnerable bridges Around $2 billion per year through 2090

Wastewater treatment acilitiesMaintenance, replacement, and improvement

o wastewater inrastructureAround $5 billion to $10 billion per year through

Drinking-water utilitiesConservation, ood protection, and changing

water-management practicesAround $14 billion to $26 billion per year throug

Energy demandIncreased residential and commercial expenditures

on energy or air conditioning and heating$40 billion to $87 billion in 2100

Healthasthma Medical treatment costs or increased asthma cases $5 billion in 2025

Air qualityIncremental pollution-control costs to meet

air-quality standards$12 billion in 2050

Source: Fran Sussman, What Will it Cost the United States to Adapt to Climate Change?, Climate Dollars & Sense, October 21, 2013, available at

http://climatedollarsandsense.wordpress.com/%20short-papers/.


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Yearly expenses o respond o climae change and build climae resilience, however,

could be much larger han hose esimaed by hese sudies. For one hing, hese

naional sudies cover a very limied porion o climae impacs and ypes o acions

ha will be needed o adap o climae change (see he box below), suggesing ha

annual coss could be considerably higher han indicaed. For anoher, coss will

also depend on jus how severe climae change is and how hard we work o resorelos services and inrasrucure. A sudy ha looked specically a he cos o waer

conservaion and developing alernaive waer supplies ound ha annual coss

could rise o more han $300 billion in 2030 i climae change exacerbaes drough

condiions and waer supplies are managed o mainain sreamows.44

Lasly, and perhaps mos imporanly, almos none o he exising naional sudies

look a he coss o climae variabiliy or exreme weaher evens; insead, hey

ocus on wha i will cos o deal wih changes in average climae condiions.

Te coss o rebuilding afer Supersorm Sandy sugges ha i he curren rend

oward high-damage exreme weaher evens coninues ino he uure, he cosso rebuilding afer such evens will be massive.45 Gov. Andrew Cuomos (D-NY)

oce esimaed ha ollowing Supersorm Sandy, recovery and prevenion coss

in New York sae alone will reach $42 billionalmos $33 billion in repairs and

resoraion coss, including $15 billion or New York Ciy alone and more han $9

billion in proecive measures o save o damage rom uure sorms, including

seps o proec he saes power grid and cell phone nework.46

In aggregae, he cos o adaping o climae change will conservaively be in he

many ens o billions o dollars annually, based on published sudies. aking ino

accoun he ypes o coss ha are omited and he evidence rom he acions ha

saes and localiies are already planning, as well as he poenial coss o rebuild-

ing afer exreme evens such as Supersorm Sandy, he acual cos could easily rise

ino he hundreds o billions o dollars.


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A burden on public-sector budgets and taxpayers

Mos o he cos o responding, repairing and rebuilding, and planning or a more

resilien uure will be borne by he public secorand, by exension, axpay-

ers. Te Naural esources Deense Council, or NDC, or example, esimaes

ha he ederal governmen suppors he lions share o cleanup afer a disaser.

In 2012, privae insurers covered less han 25 percen o he damages, while he

ederal governmen spen almos hree imes as much.47

Sorms, such as Supersorm Sandy and he blizzard Nemo ha hi New England

in February, demand immediae acion and a rapid allocaion o resources o

recovery. Bu expenses relaed o cleanup, repair, and rebuilding afer a disaser

represen only par o he rue cos o climae change. Te cos o proacively

making invesmens and aking oher acions o reduce our vulnerabiliy o uurechangeor example, designing bridges o beter wihsand sorm impacs and

helping relocae amilies and businesses away rom dangerously high-risk ood

zonesconinue long afer a sorm srikes. So do rouine aciviies, such as repair-

ing ransporaion sysems o keep hem running smoohly in he ace o exreme

weaher and oher climae changes.

According to a recent survey o existing estimates or adapting to

climate change in the United States, only a dozen or so relatively

recent national-level studies exist. Generally, there are only one or two

studies, at most, per sector. The survey suggests that these existing es-

timates are woeully incomplete in their ability to portray the true costs

o adapting to climate change. Limitations noted in the survey include:

Only a ew sectors, including several inrastructure typesprotec-

tion o coastal property rom sea-level rise, wastewater treatment,

water quality and quantity, and roads and bridgeshave been

studied in any detail.

The costs o adapting have not been estimated at all or many criti-

cal impact categories, including but not limited to the eects o cli-

mate change on illness due to waterborne and oodborne dis

ecosystems and parks; transit, rail, air, and water transportatio

agricultural production; and power generation and transmiss

Even in areas that have been relatively well studied, existing a

ments do not look comprehensively at impact categories. Stu

coastal protection, or example, typically ocus on private pro

rather than public inrastructure and thereore do not capture

costs o measures taken to protect or harden public buildings

as schools and hospitals.

Importantly, these studies ocus almost exclusively on changes

average climate and do not take into account the cost o adapt

extreme weather events or climate variability.

Whats missing from the national studies of adaptation cost in the United States?

Source: Fran Sussman and others, Climate change adaptation cost in the US: what do we know? (Washington: Climate Policy, 2013), available at http://www.tandonline.com/doi/ull/10.1080/14693062.2013.777604#preview;
http://www.tandfonline/http://www.tandfonline/http://www.tandfonline/


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ogeher, hese coss could be signican when compared wih public-secor

expendiures, as repored by he Congressional Budge Oce, or CBO.48 Annual

coss or adaping wasewaer reamen sysems o climae changearound $5

billion o $10 billion per year hrough 2050, as repored in able 1could alone

be as much as 10 percen o he oal public spending on waer supply and rea-

men combined, as indicaed in able 2.TABLE 2

Public spending on transportation and water infrastructure in 2007,

in billions of 2009 dollars

HighwaysAviation, mass

transit, and rail

Water supply

and wastewater

treatment

Water transportation

and water resources

Total pub

spending

Capital 87.5 26.6 38.9 7.8 160.8

Operation andmaintenance

67 57 62.4 9.1 195.5

Total 154.5 83.6 101.3 16.9 356.4

Source: Congressional Budget Ofce, Public Spending on Transportation and Water Inrastructure (2010).

Sae and local governmens are already aking he lead on responding and build-

ing resilience o climae change. While he ederal governmen is helping shoulder

some o his cos, much o i alls direcly on sae and local budges. According o

Mayor Brian A. oh o Plymouh, Norh Carolina:

In many smaller coastal towns that are going to be aected, the concern is not

about expanding the current water and sewer inastructure systems in a smart

way. Rather, it is about moving inastructure that has been in the ground or

decades. Some o my pipes are over 100 years old. Smaller, low-wealth com-

munities cannot possibly undertake the fnancial burden o system relocations

without grants om the Federal government.49

I he aggregae cos o sae and local governmens rises ino he billions o dol-

lars, i would become a signican componen o heir budges, many o which are

already sreched o he breaking poin. In 2011, oal sae expendiures rangedrom $4 billion in Souh Dakoa o more han $200 billion in Caliornia, averaging

abou $33 billion across all saes.50 An increase o even a ew percenage poins in

cossrelaive o curren expendiurescould increase he pressure on cash-

srapped sae budges and urher srain unding or schools, hospials, roads, and

oher services ha communiies and businesses rely on daily.


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Declining revenues and federal funding

Saes are beginning o recognize boh he poenial burden o climae change on

already-sressed sae budges and he likelihood ha less ederal unding will be

available o make up or any shoralls. In he wake o Supersorm Sandy, Gov.

Cuomo cauioned invesors ha climae change posed a long-erm risk o hesaes nances.51 Since he beginning o 2013, climae change has been included as

a op scal risk o he saes bond oerings.52

Even a he ederal levelwhere he Federal Emergency Managemen Agency, or

FEMA, has a hisory o picking up he check or he immediae cleanup and rebuild-

ing o public inrasrucure afer big naural disaser evens53regulaors are saring

o balk a he long-erm risks and coss posed by climae change. A recen repor

rom he Governmen Accounabiliy Oce, or GAO, ound ha he impacs o cli-

mae change presen a signican nancial risk o he ederal governmen. 54 And a a

press conerence las year, ep. Darrell Issa (-CA), he epublican chairman o heU.S. House Oversigh and Governmen eorm Commitee, observed ha as he

requency o exreme weaher evens increases, he saes and ciies hey aec may

no longer be able o depend on he ederal governmen or exra help. 55 Te growing

cos o he ederal budge comes a he same ime ha Congress has cracked down

on ederal expendiures, imposing $1 rillion in ofen arbirary budge cus across all

ederal agencies as par o he plan known as he sequeser.

As he ederal governmen pulls back, saes will have o sep up o address

climae change. Bu hey may have o do so using ax bases ha are shrinking due

o climae change impacs, such as job and business losses, declining housing

values, reduced sales rom ores and armland, and reduced labor produciviy.

Signican producion losses may be el in a number o saes, as he ollowing

exampleswhich are by no means comprehensiveillusrae:

In he Norheas, annual revenues in he maple syrup indusry are expeced o

decline by as much as $12 million annually40 percen.56 Te region should

also expec a 20 percen decline in skiing days, a revenue loss o roughly $500

million per year.

For he agriculurally producive Cenral Valley in Caliornia alone, he esi-

maed economy-wide loss during he dries years is prediced o be around $6

billion per year.57


18/35


New Yorks agriculural yield may drop by as much as 40 percen annually, caus-

ing $1.2 billion in annual losses.58

Te Grea Plains and Midwes will suer, paricularly rom increased requency

and severiy o ooding and drough evens, causing billions o dollars in dam-

ages o crops and propery.59

In he Souh and Souhwes, declining precipiaion levels will srain waer

resources or agriculure, indusry, and households, as occurred during severe

droughs over he pas ew years.60

In 1995, Congress passed UMRA to ocus attention on the costs omandates that the ederal government imposed on other levels

o government and the private sector.61 According to an article

published in the National Tax Journal, the legislations supporters

wanted to ensure that Congress had inormation about the costs o

mandates beore it decided to impose them and to encourage the

ederal government to provide unding to cover the costs o intergov-

ernmental mandates.62

Some viewed the issue even more strongly. William V. Roth Jr. (R-DE),

the ormer chairman o the Senate Governmental Aairs Committee,

said that voters wanted an end to the steady stream o dictates rom

Washington on how to spend locally raised tax dollars.63 This issue has

remained salient with politicians. When ormer Speaker o the House

Newt Gingrich (R-GA) was asked more than a decade ater UMRA took

eect whether he would support a constitutional amendment ban-

ning ununded congressional mandates on states, he replied that he

would be willing to consider it. He added, I think i every governor

and every state legislature would create a national ederal cost analy-

sis, that would be an enormously helpul way o highlighting it.64

UMRA requires that the CBOthe nonpartisan agency charged withconducting independent analyses o budgetary and economic issues

to support the congressional budget processassess each piece o

legislation that is reported out o committee or whether it cona ederal mandate.65 Such mandates might take the orm o en

able duties imposed by the legislation or reduced ederal undi

or existing mandates. Where a mandate exists and the direct c

are likely to be above a legislatively set threshold, the CBO mus

provide an estimate o the cost.66

I the CBO report indicates that the legislation contains intergo

ernmental mandates with costs exceeding the threshold and d

not include authorization or appropriations sucient to cover

costs, UMRAs rules prohibit urther consideration o the legisla

According to the CBO, Although it has rarely used UMRAs expl

enorcement mechanism when considering bills, in some case

Congress had changed legislation beore enactment either to e

nate a mandate or reduce its costs.68

The intergovernmental cost threshold that triggers a CBO analy

and possible action by Congressis currently $75 million annu

or the frst fve years ater the law takes eect.69 As described e

in this report, the costs o needed action by state, local, and trib

governments over the next ew years and decades to reduce th

o climate change to public health, saety, and local economiesar surpasslikely by an order o magnitude or morethe ann

threshold set by Congress or an ununded mandate.

An unfunded mandate on state, local, and tribal governments


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But UMRA is not restricted just to intergovernmental mandates. It also

contains provisions or dealing with private-sector ununded man-

dates, which include enorceable duties imposed by legislation on

households, businesses, educational institutions, and other private-

sector entities. In other words, UMRA protects just about everyonerom ununded mandates. To the extent that FEMA and other ederal

agencies fnance some o the costs o disaster recovery and increas-

ing resilience, inaction rom Congress not only orces an ununded

mandate on states but also pushes costs onto ederal taxpayers. The

costs o actions that all levels o government will takeand pass on

to taxpayersas well as the costs o actions that all directly on the

private sector, add to the burden and the ununded mandate.

In act, Congresss ailure to take action to reduce greenhouse gas pol-

lution in the United States may well be the largest ununded mandate

ever imposed on all levels o governmentederal, as well as state,

local, and tribalnot to mention the American people.

But lets back up or a moment. In point o act, UMRA is concerned

with the actions that proposed legislation requires nonederal govern-

ment entities and the private sector to take. It is not, in the letter o the

law, concerned with the costs imposed by actions resulting rom legis-

lation that Congress does not pass. By ailing to take action, however,

Congress is ensuring that state, local, and tribal governments will not

have a choice; these governments will have to take action i they want

their communities to be sae, healthy, and thriving, and they will have

to bear the costs. The ununded mandate is very real.

Congress has had many opportunities to tackle climate change,

putting a price on carbon, to supporting low-carbon technology

opment and deployment while scaling back subsidies or ossil

to adequately unding ederal, state, and local governments to b

resilience to climate change impacts. Sadly, it has seized none o

While the House o Representatives did pass a bill by Reps. Hen

Waxman (D-CA) and Ed Markey (D-MA) in 2009 aimed at curbin

heat-trapping emissions,70 the Senate ailed to pass a compan-

ion bill, and the eort died in 2010. The single-largest energy b

recently passed in the United States was the American Recover

and Reinvestment Act o 2009, which President Obama champ

and which included $90 billion in clean energy investments an

incentives. But that was just a two-year bill, and its programs h

mostly ended. Aside rom various renewable energy tax credits

passed at the end o 2012, this Congress has made almost no p

ress toward seriously addressing the root causes o climate cha

its immediate impacts.

Even worse, 161 members o Congress continue to deny that

climate change is real, despite the overwhelming scientifc an

meteorological evidence to the contrary.71 Ironically, accordin

to a recent CAP analysis, 47 climate change deniers in Congre

represent the 10 states that received the most ederal disaste

help armers, businesses, and communities rebuild and get ba

their eet ater devastating droughts, wildfres, and storm dam

in 2011 and 2012.72


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Reducing the long-term

cost of climate change

Saes, ciies, and ribal communiies have had no choice bu o sep ino he void

lef by Congress. As communiies across he counry experience he rshand

eecs o more exreme hea, oods, sorms, and oher climae change impacs,

more and more sae and local decision makers realize he need o srenghen

aging inrasrucure and ake oher seps o build climae resilience hrough adap-

aion planning,73 long-range developmen plans ha ake climae ino accoun,

and, in some cases, even a radical rehinking o sae budge accouning o iner-

nalize susainabiliy merics.74 A 2011 survey ound ha 58 percen o U.S. ciymanagers are aking acion o build resilience o uure exreme weaher evens.75

Saes and localiies do no have all he resources needed o reac o climae

changemuch less o proacively ake seps o prepare or i on heir own. Te

only way o ruly lessen he burden o paying or climae change impacs is o

ackle he problem nowby rapidly reducing emissions o hea-rapping gases

and increasing resilience so we can lessen he long-erm risks and coss o a chang-

ing climae. Ta is a challenge we mus no ace alone as individuals or localiies

bu, raher, as a naion.

o sop imposing his cosly ununded mandae on he American people, Congress

and he presiden mus ake immediae acion in he ollowing hree areas.

Recognize and reverse the unfunded mandate

Congress must assess the unfunded mandate that it is imposing

on state, local, and tribal governments by failing to enact ambitiousclimate change policies

In he ineres o ransparency and ull disclosure, Congress should ask CBO

o assess he expeced cos o sae, local, and ribal governmens i he curren

naional policies on climae change coninue as hey are. As in UMR, CBO


21/35


should be asked o assess, a a minimum, he direc coss o acions ha hese gov-

ernmenal eniies will have o ake o respond o climae change and ensure ha

necessary servicessuch as healh care, provision o saey, ransporaion and

ransi, elecriciy, drinking waer, and communicaionsconinue o be provided

o communiies. CBO should also be asked o assess he coss o he ull range o

acions ha sae, local, and ribal governmen eniies will likely need o ake andha will no be covered by ederal appropriaions and unds, including:

Costs of responding to extreme events, such as Superstorm Sandy and the

recent Colorado floods, and subsequent rebuilding. Since hese coss will no

be ully covered by ederal aidgiven curren ederal unding or emergency

response and relaed aciviieshey represen an ununded mandae.

Costs of maintaining infrastructure and public service levels, given changes in

average and seasonal weather and in the variability of temperature, precipita-

tion, and humidity. Saesofen in parnership wih he ederal governmenplay a criical role in mainaining ransporaion sysems and public healh

sysems, proecing coaslines, and a hos o oher aciviies ha will become

more expensive as warming coninues.

Costs of building resilience into infrastructure and institutions. As saes ake

he lead on making changes o proacively proec and make heir populaions

more secure agains uure climae change, hese cossmany o which will

come rom declining budgesare an ununded mandae.

Congress must require that all proposed energy legislation undergo a

carbon audit to reveal its effect on carbon pollution

All proposed legislaion should be subjec o an audiusing a widely acceped

mehodo deermine he legislaions eec on emissions o greenhouse gas

polluans during he 10-year period afer he law would ake eec. Eecs on

emissions could be calculaed using esablished echniques or measuring, aggre-

gaing, and projecing emissions. A a minimum, any proposed energy legislaion

should be required o reduce ne greenhouse gas emissions in line wih he presi-dens goal o reduce U.S. emissions by 83 percen below 2005 levels by 2050.76

Te audis purpose would be o preven Congress rom imposing an addiional

ununded mandae by enacing laws ha escalae emissions o greenhouse gases

and uure climae change risks and coss.


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In addiion o conducing an audi, Congress should incorporae he principles

o carbon reducion ino is legislaive proposals. Te CBO regularly produces

repors or he House and Senae budge commitees. One o hese is a com-

pendium called educing he Deci: Spending and evenue Opions, which

describes more han 100 legislaive opions ha Congress could adop and

esimaes he eecs each opion would have on he budge. For he mos par, heopions would, i adoped, reduce he ederal budge deci. Te opions cover

an array o policy areas, rom energy o he ax code o deense programs.77 A

similar repor on climae changeone ha liss a range o large and small opions

ha lawmakers could adop o reduce hea-rapping emissionswould enable

Congress o incorporae emissions-reducing measures ino proposed legislaion.

Adequately fund community resilience efforts

Congress must create a dedicated fund to assist community resilience efforts

and save billions of dollars in disaster response

New sources o ederal nancing are needed o adequaely build communiy

resilience.78 Every $1 ha FEMA invess in resilience and in acions o reduce

disaser losses saves he naion $4 in disaser-recovery coss.79 By underinvesing

in resilience oday, we risk acing even higher disaser-relie and recovery coss in

he uure.

Congress and he presiden should ideniy a susainable revenue sream o sup-

por sae and local governmen eors o increase communiy resilience beore

a disaser srikes and while rebuilding in he afermah o a sorm. o his end, a

previous CAP analysis recommends:

the creation o a dedicated und or community resilience with annual rev-

enue equal to one-third o the total ederal disaster relie and recovery spending

om the previous three years. For fscal year 2013, we estimate that the amount

earmarked or such a resilience und would have been approximately $7 billion

using this ormula.

Te money dedicaed or resilience could come rom a small levy on some or all

o he ossil uels ha emi he carbon polluion responsible or climae change,

which scieniss predic will exacerbae exreme weaher.


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In addiion, we need an annual and complee accouning o ederal unds spen

on every disaser-recovery program in he previous scal year. Such an accouning

would enable public ocials and everyday ciizens o beter undersand he rue

cos o axpayers o unchecked exreme weaher. An accouning o ederal inves-

mens in resilience programs would highligh he gap beween resilience needs

and available resources.80

Congress and the president must make resilience a core aspect of all federal

infrastructure and disaster-recovery funding

As described in anoher recen CAP analysis, he ederal governmen can also use

exising ederal unds o improve communiy resilience simply by srenghening

exising gran programs.81 In his Climae Acion Plan, Presiden Obama direcs ed-

eral agencies o encourage and suppor smarer, more resilien invesmens, includ-

ing hrough agency grans, echnical assisance, and oher programs, in secors romransporaion and waer managemen o conservaion and disaser relie.82

o deliver on his commimen, he Deparmen o ransporaion, or DO; he

Deparmen o Housing and Urban Developmen, or HUD; he Army Corps

o Engineers; and he EPA should only und inrasrucure-projec designs

ha can wihsand more exreme hea, oods, and sorms. HUD, or example,

should ensure ha he roughly $3 billion available annually or Communiy

Developmen Block Grans, or CDBGs, suppor climae-resilien housing and

oher projecs.83 Similarly, DO should ensure ha he $500 million available

yearly or ransporaion Invesmen Generaing Economic ecovery, or IGE,

Discreionary Granswhich help improve our naions inrasrucuresuppor

sorm-ready roads, rails, ransi sysems, and pors.84

In addiion, HUD should coninue o apply and enorce is new resilience require-

mens or CDBG disaser-recovery assisance in areas hi hardes by Supersorm

Sandy. DO, he Army Corps o Engineers, and oher agencies should also require

ha heir disaser-recovery programs inves in resilien rebuilding projecs ha

can wihsand uure exreme weaher. Building on imporan Sandy elie Ac

reorms o ederal disaser assisance, Congress mus urher amend he ober .Saord Disaser elie and Emergency Assisance Ac o require ha all FEMA-

unded rebuilding projecs are climae resilien. As i sands, FEMA and oher

ederal agencies rely primarily on he poliical will and iniiaive o ederal disaser-

aid recipiens o rebuild resilien communiies and inrasrucure.85


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Congress must adequately fund federal programs that provide state and

local governments with the climate change-risk information and planning

tools necessary to make smart resilience investments

Sae and local decision makers need more accurae and up-o-dae ood maps o

allow amilies, businesses, local policymakers, and planners o make smar deci-sions o keep people and propery ou o harms way.86 Congress gave FEMA he

auhoriy o updae is oodplain maps o accoun or sea-level rise as par o he

2012 Naional Flood Insurance Program reorms.87 FEMA also released a sudy

by independen conracor AECOM revealing ha rising seas and more exreme

weaher are expeced o expand he areas o he counry vulnerable o ooding by

up o 45 percen by 2100. Tese changes could double he number o ood-prone

properies naionwide ha are covered by he Naional Flood Insurance Program

and drive up ood losses by 90 percen.88

Despie his new pressure o updae oodplain maps, FEMAs budge or is FloodHazard Mapping and isk Analysis program dropped rom $181.6 million in

2011 o $97.7 million in boh 2012 and 2013.89 Similarly, spending cus enaced

by Congress as par o he sequeser are undermining eors by NOAA, he

Deparmen o he Inerior, and he Deparmen o Agriculure o deliver climae

science and planning ools o help sae and local ocials, coasal managers,

armers, and oher decision makers undersand and build resilience o drough,

ooding, severe sorms, and oher climae change risks.90 Insead o cuting hese

criical programs, Congress and he presiden mus ensure ha hese agencies

have adequae resources o provide climae change-risk inormaion and oher

resiliency services o communiies across he counry.

Include more economic data in the National Climate Assessment

Te Naional Climae Assessmen, or NCA, is a comprehensive repor on climae

change in he Unied Saes ha is required by Congress as par o he Global

Change esearch Ac o 1990. Te curren draf will be he hird assessmen

repor produced and is due o be compleed by he U.S. Global Change esearch

Program, or USGCP, in 2014. Te repor provides inormaion abou observedchanges, he curren saus o he climae, and anicipaed rends or he uure.91


25/35


Tus ar, he naional assessmens have no sysemaically included inormaion

on economic impacs or oher coss associaed wih projeced climae change.

Te USGCPs sraegic plan, however, recognizes he imporance o inegraing

socioeconomic and scienic mehods and daa and has ormed a Social Sciences

ask Force wih he goal o beter inegrae a broad range o knowledge and exper-

ise rom across he breadh o he social sciences.92

I will be a large underaking,however, o assess he socioeconomic knowledge base wih anyhing approaching

he level o deail in he science analyses in he curren NCA. Congress should

appropriae unding or he USGCP o assess he exising economic lieraure,

develop socioeconomic scenarios and projecions o assis researchers, and develop

and encourage he use o good pracice guidelines or assessmen.

Lower future climate change risks and

disaster-response and rebuilding costs

The president must continue to support and enforce the EPAs

carbon-pollution standards for new and existing power plants

Presiden Obamas Climae Acion Plan direcs he EPA o complee carbon-

polluion sandards or boh new and exising power plans. Te EPA unveiled is

proposed carbon sandards or uure power plans in Sepember and is expeced

o propose exising plan sandards in June 2014.93 Many epublicans in he

House and Senae, as well as a number o coal-sae Democras, wan o block

hese sandards rom moving orward.94 Te adminisraion should coninue o

move expediiously o complee he carbon-polluion sandards or exising plans

by 2015 so ha Americans can reap he public healh benes.95

Congress must enact legislation and the president must use existing EPA

authorities to reduce super pollutants that contribute to climate change

Super polluans such as mehane; ropospheric ozone; hydrouorocarbons, or

HFCs; and black carbonalso known as shor-lived climae polluans, or orcersare poen hea-rapping emissions ha are harmul o he climae, human healh,

and agriculural produciviy.96 While reducing carbon polluion will be essenial

o ackle climae change over he long erm, quick acion o reduce super-polluan

emissions can slow down warming by as much as 0.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, while

also avoiding 2.4 million premaure deahs rom exposure o air polluion.97


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ep. Scot Peers (D-CA) inroduced he Super Polluan Emissions educion

Ac, or SUPE Ac, in he House in May o sreamline he enorcemen o exising

ederal policies o reduce super polluans, suppor similar policies a he sae and

local levelssuch as Caliornias successul diesel-ruck regulaions and eors

o curb HFCsand ideniy oher bes pracices or reducing super pollu-

ans.98

Sens. Chris Murphy (D-C), ober Menendez (D-NJ), and Al Franken(D-MN) are also preparing a bill o ackle super polluans.99 Congress should

ake immediae seps o enac legislaion o rein in emissions o super polluans.

Presiden Obama reached a hisoric agreemen wih Chinese Presiden Xi Jinping

and he heads o oher G-20 naions in Sepember o iniiae acion under he

Monreal Proocol and oher mulilaeral insiuions o phase down HFCs, widely

used in rerigeraion and car air condiioning.100 In his Climae Acion Plan, he

presiden direced he EPA o ideniy and approve climae-riendly alernaives o

HFCs and prohibi harmul alernaives hrough is Signican New Alernaives

Policy program.101 Te presiden also direced agencies o purchase cleaneralernaives o HFCs and called or an ineragency sraegy o reduce mehane

emissions. Te presiden should also require acion o reduce mehane emis-

sions rom oil and gas wells and coal mines on ederal lands. In addiion, he EPA

should srenghen rules and programs o limi mehane emissions rom oil and gas

operaions, landlls, and coal mines and accelerae he reroting or replacemen

o exising diesel-powered rucks ha emi black carbon.102

The president and Congress must act across the board to eliminate

unnecessary and outdated fossil fuel subsidies and support emerging low-

and no-carbon energy-technology solutions103

According o he Inernaional Moneary Fund, or IMF, global ossil uel subsidies

are a $1.9 rillion, or 2.5 percen o global gross domesic produc, or GDP.104

Te wors oender is he Unied Saes, which provides $502 billion in ossil uel

subsidies annually, aking ino accoun boh ax breaks or ossil uel companies

and ailure o place a price on carbon polluion eiher hrough a carbon ax or a

cap-and-rade program.105 In his Climae Acion Plan and during his visi wih

Nordic leaders in Sepember, Presiden Obama rearmed his 2009 G-20 commi-men o expand mulilaeral and bilaeral cooperaion o end unwarraned ossil

uel subsidies and ax breaks or oil companies.106


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Despie he presidens phase-ou commimen, litle progress has been made o

end ossil uel subsidies in he Unied Saes.107 According o invesmen rm DBL

Invesors, ossil uels have received a whopping $447 billionin 2010 dollarsin

cumulaive hisorical subsidies, compared o $6 billion in subsidies or low-carbon

energy ha same year.108 Congress could help by reorming U.S. ax policy o

eliminae expensive ax expendiures or mulibillion-dollar oil companies suchas BP, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, all o which would be proable even wihou

governmen subsidies.109 Tese companies, ogeher wih Shell and Conoco, made

roughly $250 billion in pros in 2011 and 2012 combined.110 Presiden Obamas

2014 budge proposes o eliminae nearly $40 billion in unnecessary special ax

breaks or oil and gas companies over he nex 10 years.111

A he same ime, Congress should coninue supporing he no- and low-carbon

energy policies ha are helping move he Unied Saes oward a more susain-

able energy uure. A number o ax credis or alernaive energyincluding he

Producion ax Credi or wind power, credis or alernaive uels, and credis orenergy-ecien homes and appliancesare se o expire a he end o 2013.112

Wihou a naional price on carbon, hese ypes o incenives help pu low-carbon

alernaives ono an even playing eld wih ossil uels.

Congress must ultimately enact legislation to put a price on carbon

In an AugusNew York imes op-ed, our ormer epublican EPA adminisra-

ors praised Presiden Obama or direcing he EPA o regulae carbon dioxide

rom new and exising power plans under he Clean Air Ac and called or [a]

marke-based approach, like a carbon ax o urher reduce greenhouse gas emis-

sions.113 Congress should heed his call and adop a new plan o pu a price on

carbon using a marke-based approach such as a carbon ax. Legislaion proposed

by Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Bernie Sanders (I-V) would place a ee on

carbon a $20 per on.114


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Conclusion

I emissions o hea-rapping gases coninue unabaed a curren raes and he

climae responds as expeced, NOAA researchers predic ha by he year 2100,

Washingon, D.C.a ciy already known or ho, humid summerswill eel more

like New Orleans, which is locaed abou 1,000 miles souh o he naions capial.

In urn, New Orleans will eel more like Bahraina ho, dry, and mosly deser

counry in he Persian Gul almos 8,000 miles eas o New Orleanswhere

Augus emperaures hisorically average above 100 degrees Fahrenhei.115

As he climae warms, we will no be able o change how ho New Orleans eels

when we are ouside, bu we will need o deal wih he healh eecs and oher

impacs ha will hi children, he elderly, and low-income households he hard-

es.116 We will no be able o sop sea-level rise combined wih more powerul

sorm surges rom batering our coaslines or preven prolonged drough rom

hreaening waer supplies, devasaing crops and livesock, and raising he risk

o wildres across he Wes and Souhwes, bu we will need o deal wih he

afermah.

Congresss ailure o ake meaningul acion on climae change represens an enor-

mous ununded mandae. Unless Congress works wih Presiden Obama, insead

o agains him, o reduce hea-rapping emissions and prepare communiies or

he ineviable impacs o an already-changing climae, he American people will

coninue o pay he cos o doing oo litle, oo lae o comba climae change.


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About the authors

Fran Sussman is an independen consulan wih almos hree decades o expe-

rience analyzing issues aecing energy and he environmen. For almos wo

decades, she has explored a diverse se o opics in he economics o climae

change. Her curren research ceners on undersanding he economic impacs oclimae change and how economic analysis, including bene-cos analysis, can

suppor climae decision making. Her experise has assised a variey o cliens,

including ederal agencies, sae governmens, mulilaeral insiuions, no-or-

pro organizaions, and he privae secor, as well as inernaional organizaions.

She holds a Ph.D. in economics rom he Universiy o Maryland.

Cathleen Kelly is a Senior Fellow wih he Cener or American Progress. She

specializes in inernaional and U.S. climae miigaion, preparedness, resilience,

and susainable developmen policy. Kelly served in he Obama adminisraion a

he Whie House Council on Environmenal Qualiy, where she led a more han20-person agency ask orce in developing a naional climae-resilience sraegy.

Tis sraegy ormed he basis o he climae-preparedness pillar o Presiden

Obamas Climae Acion Plan. Kelly also helped ormulae he Obama adminis-

raions posiions on inernaional susainable developmen and climae policy

issues.

Kate Gordon is a Senior Fellow wih he Cener or American Progress, as well as

he vice presiden and direcor o Climae and Energy a Nex Generaion, a San

Francisco-based hink ank. Gordon is naionally recognized or her work a he

inersecion o clean energy and economic developmen and has done policy anal-

ysis, sakeholder engagemen, and sraegic planning a his inersecion or more

han a decade. She holds degrees in law and ciy planning rom he Universiy o

Caliornia a Berkeley.

Acknowledgements

Tank you o Dan Weiss, ichard Caperon, Bracken Hendricks, ebecca Lefon,

David Hudson, Mark Dennin, Anne Paisley, and Cheser Hawkins or heirconribuions o his repor.


30/35


Endnotes

1 NBC News, A state-by-state look at superstorm Sandysimpact, October 29, 2012, available at http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/29/14781430-a-state-by-state-look-at-superstorm-sandys-impact?lite.

2 Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force, Hurricane

Sandy Rebuilding Strategy(U.S. Department oHousing and Urban Development, 2013), availableat http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=HSRebuildingStrategy.pd; A state-by-statelook at superstorm Sandys impact.

3 Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force, Hurricane SandyRebuilding Strategy; CNN Library, Hurricane Sandy FastFacts, CNN, July 13, 2012, available at http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/13/world/americas/hurricane-sandy-ast-acts/index.html.

4 Boulder Oce o Emergency Management, 9-19-20138:50 p.m. End-o-Day Figures, available at http://boulderoem.com/emergency-status/553-9-18-2013-8-50-p-m-end-o-day-gures (last accessed October2013); Fox News, Death toll in Colorado ooding risesto 8 as rescue crews scour rubble in search o missing,September 16, 2013, available at http://www.oxnews.

com/weather/2013/09/16/colorado-braces-or-more-heavy-rain-deadly-oods/; Keith Cofman, Propertylosses rom Colorado ood projected at about $2 bil-lion, Reuters, September 19, 2013, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-usa-colorado-ooding-idUSBRE98H1BA20130919.

5 Boulder Oce o Emergency Management, 9-19-20138:50 p.m. End- o-Day Figures; Fox News, ColoradoBraces For More Heavy Rain and Deadly Floods; Cof-man, Property losses rom Colorado ood projected atabout $2 billion.

6 Daniel J. Weiss and Jackie Weidman, Going to Ex-tremes: The $188 Billion Price Tag rom Climate-RelatedExtreme Weather, Center or American Progress,February 12, 2013, available at http://www.american-progress.org/issues/green/news/2013/02/12/52881/going-to-extremes-the-188-billion-price-tag-rom-cli-

mate-related-extreme-weather/;National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration, Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters, available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events (last accessed October 2013).

7 Daniel J. Weiss, Jackie Weidman, and StephaniePinkalla, States o Denial: States with the Most FederalDisaster Aid Sent Climate-Science Deniers to Congress(Washington: Center or American Progress, 2013),available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2013/09/12/73895/states-o-denial-states-with-the-most-ederal-disaster-aid-sent-climate-science-deniers-to-congress-2/.

8 Thomas C. Peterson, and others Explaining ExtremeEvents o 201 2 rom a Climate Perspective, SpecialSupplement to theBulletin of the American Meteorologi-cal Society94 (9) (2013).

9 Executive Oce o the President, The Presidents ClimateAction Plan (The White House, 2013), available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/deault/les/image/presi-dent27sclimateactionplan.pd.

10 Robert Jay Dilger and Richard S. Beth, Ununded Man-dates Reorm Act: History, Impact, and Issues (Washing-ton: Congressional Research Service, 2013), available athttp://www.as.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40957.pd .

11 Ibid.

12 Working Group I o the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, Contribution to the IPCC Fith Assess-ment Report, Climate Change 2013: A Physical ScienceBasis, Summary or Policy Makers (2013), available at

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pd; National Aero-nautics and Space Administration, Consensus: 97%o climate scientists agree, available at http://climate.nasa.gov/scientic-consensus (last accessed October2013).

13 Working Group I, Contribution to the IPCC Fith Assess-ment Report.

14 U.S. Global Change Research Program, Hurricanes: Acompendium o hurricane inormation, available athttp://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/links/hurricanes.htm(last accessed October 2013); Working Group I, Contri-bution to the IPCC Fith Assessment Report.

15 Ibid.; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Human inuence on climate clear, IPCC report says,Press release, September 27, 2013, available at http://

www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar5/press_re-lease_ar5_wgi_en.pd.

16 National Climate Assessment Development AdvisoryCommittee, Federal Advisory Committee Drat ClimateAssessment (2013), available at http://ncadac.global-change.gov/.

17 U.S. Global Change Research Center, National ClimateAssessment: Urban Systems, Inrastructure, and Vulner-ability (2013), available at http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdrat-chap11-urban.pd.

18 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters.

19 Ibid.

20 Ibid.; Adam B. Smith and Richard W. Katz, U.S. BillionDollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Data Sources,Trends, Accuracy, and Biases, Natural Hazards 67(2) (2013): 387410; The H. John Heinz III Center orScience, Economics and the Environment, The HiddenCosts of Coastal Hazards: Implications for Risk Assessmentand Mitigation (Washington: Island Press, 2000).

21 National Climate Assessment Development AdvisoryCommittee, Federal Advisory Committee Drat ClimateAssessment.

22 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters.

23 AgriLie Today, Texas agricultural drought lossesreach record $5.2 billion, August 17, 2011, available athttp://today.agrilie.org/2011/08/17/texas-agricultural-drought-losses-reach-record-5-2-billion/.

24 Ibid.

25 National Interagency Fire Center, Total Wildland Firesand Acres ( 1960-2009), available at http://www.nic.gov/reIno/reIno_stats_totalFires.html(last accessedOctober 2013); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-ministration, Billion-Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters.
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31/35


26 Ibid.

27 InciWeb, Rim Fire Closures, available at http://inciweb.org/incident/closures/3660/ (last accessed October2013).

28 Anthony L. Westerling and others, Continued warmingcould transorm Greater Yellowstone re regimes bymid-21st century, Proceedings of the National Academyof Sciences 108 (32) (2011): 1316513170, availableat http://www.pnas.org/content/108/32/13165.ull.pd+html.

29 Jeremy Schulman, 7 more national parks threatenedby re, Grist, available at http://grist.org/climate-energy/7-more-national-parks-threatened-by-re/(lastaccessed October 2013).

30 National Climate Assessment Development AdvisoryCommittee, Federal Advisory Committee Drat ClimateAssessment,; Tracey Ross, A Disaster in the Making(Washington: Center or American Progress, 2013),available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/report/2013/08/19/72445/a-disaster-in-the-making/.

31 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ClimateChange 2007: Synthesis Report (2007), available athttp://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publica-tions_ipcc_ourth_assessment_report_synthesis_re-port.htm.

32 Thomas C. Peterson, Peter A. Stott, and StephanieHerring, Explaining Extreme Events o 2011 rom aClimate Perspective, Special Supplement to the Bulletinof the American Meteorological Society93 (1) (2013):10411067.

33 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-tion, New analyses nd evidence o human-causedclimate change in hal o the 12 extreme weatherand climate events analyzed rom 2012, September5, 2013, available at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130905-extremeweatherandcli-mateevents.html; Peterson, Hoerling, Stott, and Her-ring, Explaining Extreme Events o 2012 rom a ClimatePerspective.

34 Ibid.

35 Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force,Federal Actions or a Climate Resilient Nation (2011),available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/deault/les/microsites/ceq/2011_adaptation_progress_report.pd.

36 City o Grand Rapids, Citizens Guide To The Citys Fi-nances (2012), available at http://grcity.us/Documents/PAFR%202012.pd.

37 The costs or Grand Rapids equal about $1,270 percapita. Scaling these up to a national level, basedon current population estimates, results in costsexceeding $400 billion. Ibid.; Haris Alibaic, BuildingResilient and Sustainable Grand Rapids,GermanAmerican Water Technology Magazine, 2013/2014, p. 30,available at http://www.gaccmidwest.org/leadmin/ahk_chicago/2013_GAWT_Initiative/GAWT_Maga-zine_2013-2014_FINAL.pd.

38 King County, Washington, Flooding services, availableat http://www.kingcounty.gov/environment/water-andland/ooding/buyout.aspx (last accessed October2013).

39 Seattle Public Utilities, Seattle Natural DrainageSystems Program (2011), available at www.seattle.gov/util/groups/public/@spu/@usm/documents/webcon-tent/spu02_019983.pd.

40 James W. Beever III and others, City o Punta GordaAdaptation Plan (Ft. Myers, FL: Southwest FloridaRegional Planning Council and Charlotte HarborNational Estuary Program, 2009), available at https://www.seagrant.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Punta_Gorda_Adaptation_Plan.pd.

41 Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, The BostonHarbor Project: an Environmental Success Story, avail-able at http://www.mwra.state.ma.us/01news/2008/bhpenvironentalsuccess/bhpenvsuccess.htm(lastaccessed October 2013).

42 Executive Oce o the Mayor o the District o Colum-bia, Mayor Gray Joins 44 Mayors and County Leaders inPledging to Create More Resilient Cities, Press release,June 17, 2013, available at http://mayor.dc.gov/release/mayor-gray-joins-44-mayors-and-county-leaders-pledging-create-more-resilient-cities.

43 Fran Sussman and others, Climate change adaptationcost in the US: what do we know? (Washington: Cli-mate Policy, 2013,: available at http://www.tandonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14693062.2013.777604#preview.

44 Kenneth D. Frederick and Gregory E. Shwarz, Socioeco-nomic Impacts o Climate Availability and Change onU.S. Water Resources (Washington: Resources or theFuture, 2000), available at http://www.rf.org/docu-ments/RFF-DP-00-21.pd; Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, Human inuence on climate clear,

IPCC report says.

45 The Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, Public Law113-2, 113th Cong., 1st sess. (January 29, 2013).

46 Oce o Governor Andrew M. Cuomo, GovernorCuomo Holds Meeting with New Yorks CongressionalDelegation, Mayor Bloomberg and Regional CountyExecutives to Review Damage Assessment or the Statein the Wake o Hurricane Sandy, Press release, Novem-ber 26, 2012, available at http://www.governor.ny.gov/press/11262012-damageassessment.

47 Daniel Lasho and Andy Stevenson, Who Pays orClimate Change? (Washington: National ResourcesDeense Council, 2013), available at http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/les/taxpayer-climate-costs-IP.pd.

48 Congressional Budget Oce, Public Spending on

Transportation and Water Inrastructure (2010), avail-able at http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21902.

49 Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force,Federal Actions or a Climate R esilient Nation.

50 National Association o State Budget Ocers, StateExpenditure Report: Examining Fiscal 2010 - 201 2 StateSpending (2012), available at http://www.nasbo.org/publications-data/state-expenditure-report/state-expenditure-report-scal-2010-2012-data. I Updatedthe year and source o data in the text and endnoteokay?

51 Thomas Kaplan, State Tells Investors That ClimateChange May Hurt Its Finances, The New York Times,March 26, 2013, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/nyregion/new-york-state-bonds-include-warning-on-climate-change.html?_r=0.

52 Ibid.

53 Ibid.

54 U.S. Government Accountability Oce, Limiting theFederal Governments Fiscal Exposure by Better Manag-ing Climate Change Risks (2013), available at http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-283.
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