Climate Change and Weather

Extremes – Challenges for

Malaysia

Yap Kok Seng

4 May 2017

UNU Seminar on Climate Change and Health

• Observed Climate Change in Malaysia

• Projected Climate Change for Malaysia

•Weather Extremes

• Impacts and Adaptation

• Conclusion

0.17°C/10years 0.13°C/10years

0.23°C/10years

Mean Temperature Trend

Mean Temperature Trend

Maximum Temperature Trend

0.17°C/10years

0.15°C/10years 0.17°C/10years

Maximum Temperature Trend

0.32°C/10years

0.19°C/10years0.28°C/10years

Minimum Temperature Trend

Minimum Temperature Trend

y = 14.371x + 155.68

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

No. of Cases Tmax >35°C

No of case Linear (No of case)

y = 1.0655x + 3.0937

0

50

100

150

200

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

No. of Cases Tmax >37°C

No of case Linear (No of case)

More hot days

Change in Seasonal Temperature between the Periods

2000-2015 and 1970-1999 (baseline)

Northeast Monsoon Southwest Monsoon

Inter-monsoon (April) Inter-monsoon (October)

°C

Extreme temperature in 1983, 1998 and 2016 was due to very strong

El Niño

Semenanjung Malaysia

Sabah Sarawak

Rainfall Trend

Rainfall Trend

y = x + 3.7143

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

3days

5days

No. of

occurences

Decade

No. of Wet Spells (Rainfall >100mm/day) for 3 and 5 Consecutive Days

Trend for Extreme Wet Spell

Percentage Change in Seasonal Rainfall between the

Periods 2000-2015 and 1970-1999 (baseline)

Inter-monsoon (April) Inter-monsoon (October)

%

Northeast Monsoon Southwest Monsoon

Projected Climate Change for Malaysia

SUMMARY OF PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate ParameterPeninsular Malaysia

[RegHCM-PM]

Sabah

[RegHCM-SS]

Sarawak

[RegHCM-SS]

World

[IPCC AR5]

Annual mean

surface temp.

[2050]

1.0-1.5oC

[2100]

2.52-2.95oC

[2050]

1.3-1.7oC

[2100]

2.9–3.5oC

[2050]

1.0-1.5oC

[2100]

3.0-3.3oC

[2100]

1.4 - 3.1°C

Max. Monthly

Rainfall

[2050]

+113mm(12%)

[2050]

+59mm (5.1%)

[2100]

+111mm (9%)

[2050]

+150mm (8%)

[2100]

+282mm (32% )

-

Sea Level Rise 0.25-0.52m

[2100]

0.64-1.03m

[2100]

0.43-0.63m

[2100]

0.33-0.63m

[2100]

17

Annual mean temperature anomaly (oC) based on PRECIS RCM for the

decades 2020-2029, 2050-2059 and 2090-2099 relative to 1990-1999

1.3°C 1.9°C 3.1°C

1.1°C 1.7°C 2.9°C 1.2°C 1.9°C 3.0°C

1.0°C 1.7°C 2.8°C

1.2°C 2.0°C 3.4°C1.5°C 2.0°C 3.2°C

1.4°C 1.9°C 3.2°C 1.4°C 2.0°C 3.8°C

2020-2029 2050-2059 2090-2099

-11.3 6.4 11.9

-9.1 -1.3 6.2-14.6 -0.2 15.2

-10.2 2.3 14.1

-8.9 -1.2 0.3

-17.5 -12.8 -3.6-18.7 -6.0 4.1

-8.8 3.8 14.6

2020-2029 2050-2059 2090-2099

Annual mean rainfall anomaly (%) based on PRECIS RCM for the

decades 2020-2029, 2050-2059 and 2090-2099 relative to 1990-1999

Weather Extremes

Comparison of up to100-year Return Period

of Daily Maximum Rainfall between 2000-2099 and 1951-2015

Sabah & Sarawak Stations showing an increase in return

periods

East coast of the Peninsular stations showing no apparent difference in

return period

Comparison of up to 100-year Return Period

of Daily Maximum Rainfall between 2000-2099 and 1951-2015

Impacts and Adaptation

Adaptation Challenges

• Water resources & security

Floods

Droughts

• Infrastructure

Floods

Flash floods in cities

Sea level rise

• Health

Floods on health infrastructure

Floods & Droughts on Water & Air -borne diseases

Temperature extremes & Heat stress

Adaptation Challenges• Food Security & Agriculture

Rainfall pattern changes

Floods

Droughts

• Biodiversity

Terrestrial eco-systems

• Rainfall pattern changes

• Temperature changes

Marine eco-systems

• Sea temperature changes

• Sea water acidity changes

• Forestry

Rainfall and temperature changes

Conclusion

• Climate Change already observed in

Malaysia

• Projected temperature changes ranged from

1-2 oC by 2050 and up to 3 oC by 2100

• Rainfall changes is around 5-10 % by 2050

• Sea level projected to increase by 0.6 – 1 m

by 2100

• Adaptation to climate changes need to be

mainstreamed into development