VIA  of  Climate  Change  on  Malaysia  Agricultural  System:  Current  understanding  and  Plan  

Sahibin  Abd.  Rahim  Universi@  Kebangsaan  Malaysia  The  Na@onal  Universi@  of  Malasia  

CLIMATIC  CHANGE  IN  MALAYSIA  Mustafa  Kamal  Baharuddin    •  Director,   Soil   Resource  Management  

a n d   C o n s e r v a @ o n   D i v i s i o n ,  Department  of  Agriculture,  Malaysia  

•  Loca@on:    

•    La@tudes   0o   60'   N   to   6o   40'   N   and   from  longitudes  99o  35'  E  to  119o  25'  E.  Malaysia  is  a   humid   tropical   country   and   its   climate   is  characterized   by   monsoon   winds   which   are  subject   to   interference   by   mountains   in  Peninsula  Malaysia,  Borneo  and  Sumatra.  

 •  The   average   annual   rainfall   is   about   2,420  

mm/yr   in   the   peninsular,   2,630   mm/yr   in  Sabah   and   3850   mm/yr   in   Sarawak.    However,   the   annual   rainfall   is   more   than  4,000   mm/yr   in   mountainous   areas   of  Sarawak,  and  more  than  3,000  mm/yr  in  the  northern  half  of  Peninsular  Malaysia  and  the  coastal  areas  of  Sabah  and  Sarawak.      

   •  The  monthly  mean  air  temperature  is  25oC  to  

28oC   in   the   coastal   lowlands   and   monthly  rela@ve  humidity  is  between  75  to  90%.  

CLIMATIC  CHANGE  IN  MALAYSIA  •  Extreme  or  severe  weather  is  simply  really  bad  weather  or  weather  

on   larger,   more   serious   and   devasta@ng   scale,   crea@ng   a   natural  disaster.    

 •  A  disaster  caused  by  climate  change  could  be  defined  as  a  serious  

disrup@on   to   the   func@oning   of   a   community   or   a   society   causes  widespread   human,   material,   economic   or   environmental   losses  which   exceed   the   ability   of   the   affected   community   or   society   to  cope  using  its  own  resources.    

 •  In  Malaysia,  forecast  have  been  made  on  climate  modeling  using  14  

GCM’s   (Global   Climate  Models)   which   shows   that  Malaysia   could  experience   temperature   changes   from     0.7   to   2.6   degree   Celsius  and  precipita@on  changes  ranging  from  -­‐30%  to  30%.    

FACTORS  CONTRIBUTING  TO  CLIMATE  CHANGE  

•  These  factors  could  be  global,  na@onal  and  localized  factors.    

 •  Global   warming,   open   burning   (haze)   are   some   of  the   good   examples   of   global   factor   that   are  transborder  in  nature  .  

•  Na@onal   and   localized   causal   factors   include  industrializa@on,   clearing   of   land   for   agriculture,  encroachment  of  fragile  ecosystem.  

•  Seluas   6,230   hektar   kawasan   tanah   padi   di   kawasan  Lembaga  Kemajuan  Pertanian  Muda  (Mada)  @dak  akan  menjalankan   ak@vi@   pertanian   berikutan   masalah  kawasan   tanah   jerlus   untuk   tempoh   setahun   tahun  depan,   kawasan   tersebut   melipu@   860   hektar   tanah  sawah   di   Pendang   dan   Kubang   Pasu   manakala   5,370  hektar   lagi   di   seluruh   kawasan   Mada   di   Kedah   dan  Perlis.  

•  Seramai   2,831   petani   @dak   dapat   melakukan   kerja  penanaman   padi   dalam   tempoh   itu   apabila   tanah  mereka  akan  dikeringkan  dan  dibiarkan  selama  setahun  dan   hanya   dapat   menjalankan   ak@vi@   pertanian   pada  tahun   2014.   Masalah   ini   jika   @dak   ditangani   dengan  segera,   ia   akan   menyebabkan   hasil   padi   berkurangan  sebanyak  30,000   tan   semusim  dan   ini  memberi   impak  kepada  pengeluaran  beras  negara.  

Sumber  /  Source  :  Bernama  nov  2012  

TANAH JERLUS / TANAH LEMBUT DI WILAYAH MADA

•  In  general,  Malaysia  could  be  considered  as  a  free  zone  from  climate   related   disaster.   However,   mild   climate   related  disasters  are  quite  frequent  to  happen  lately.    

•  These   refer   to   the   occurrence   of   floods   and   droughts   that  caused  significant  socio-­‐economic  impacts  to  the  na@on    

•  The   occurrence   of   landslides   due   to   excessive   rainfall   and  strong   winds   happened   at   the   hilly   and   the   laher,   at   the  coastal  areas  caused  minimal  damage.    

VULNERABILITY  

PERANGKAAN  UTAMA  PADI  DAN  BERAS  MENGIKUT  SEMUA  MUSIM,  2000  –  2010,  KAWASAN  JELAPANG  PADI  

 No. Tahun Keluasan  Bertanam  

Hektar

Purata  Hasil  Kilogram/Hektar

Pengeluaran  Padi              Tan

Pengeluaran  Beras                    Tan

1 2000 391,012 3,749 1,465,735 952,728

2 2001 375,116 3,833 1,437,659 934,478

3 2002 382,355 3,904 1,492,818 970,332

4 2003 342,349 3,360 1,566,000 1,017,900

5 2004 340,529 3,434 1,531,000 995,150

6 2005 321,816 3,471 1,587,000 1,031,550

7 2006 387,312 3,771 1,460,473 949,308

8 2007 386,592 4,207 1,626,449 1,057,192

9 2008 384,145 4,249 1,632,407 1,061,065

10 2009 391,625 4,646 1,819,406 1,182,614

11 2010 387,160 4,540 1,757,575 1,142,423

Sumber  /  Source  :  Jabatan  Pertanian  Malaysia  /  Department  of  Agriculture,  Malaysia  

PERANGKAAN  UTAMA  PADI  DAN  BERAS  MENGIKUT  SEMUA  MUSIM,  2000  –  2010,  KAWASAN  JELAPANG  PADI

IMPACT  ON  AGRICULTURE  

•  In  agriculture,  one  of  the  mahers  that  affected  con@nuously  is  flood.  (big  flood  2007)  

•  Flooding   can   be   defined   as   any   area   of   land  covered   by   water   which   is   normally   dry.  Some@mes   water   levels   can   rise   slowly   and  unno@ced.  Other   @me,   flooded   can   be   rapid,  sudden  and  unexpected.    

IMPACT  

•  Second   maher   related   to   extreme   climate   change   is  droughts.    (dry  period  between  June  to  October  oken  stretch  the  water  supply  for  off  season  rice  plan@ng)  

•  A   drought   can   be   defined   as   a   con@nuous   and   long  period   in   which   rainfall   is   significantly   below   the  average  expected  for  a  region  at  that  @me  of  year.    

•  (longer   dry   period   in   the   northern   –   favour   Harum  Manis  Mango  produc@on)  

IMPACT  •  According   to   official   projec@ons,   increasing   in  temperature   and   changes   in   rainfall   pahern   could  affect  yields  directly.    

•  Increased   in   temperature   and   changes   in   rainfall  pahern  could  fasten  the  spread  of  fungus  and  diseases  directly   or   indirectly   (   e.g   Phytopthora   sp   in   rubber  planta@on),  thus  affec@ng  yield.    

•  The  most  vulnerable  to  these  changes  are  the  northern  Peninsular  Malaysia  as  well  as  the  coastal  of  Sabah  and  Sarawak.  

IMPACT  •  The   impacts   on   agricultural   differ   from   one   to   the   other.   Climate  

change  signifies  by  decrease  in  rainfall  will  affected  crops  that  need  wet  condi@ons  such  as  paddy,  vegetables  and  others.    

•  Rice   grain   yields   also  may   decline   by   9   to   10%   for   each   1   degree  Celsius   rise.  Prolonged  droughts  make   it   impossible   to   sustain   the  flooded   rice   ecosystem   and   it   will   jeopardize   security   of   food  supply.    

•  Prolonged   rainfall   will   also   affect   the   sunshine   hours.   Thus,  affec@ng  yield  of  crop  (e.g.  rice  grain  filling).  

 •  Meanwhile,  the  rising  in  sea  level  due  to  climate  change  could  force  

the   abandoning   of   low-­‐lying   planted   areas   such   as   paddy,   corn,  coconut  and  others.  (also  cause  salt  water  intrusion)  

 

ADAPATION  •  The  use  of  AgroclimaYc  ClassificaYon  in  agricultural  

planning.    •  The  Department  of  Agriculture  draked  an  agroclima@c  map  

of   Peninsular   Malaysia   based   on   the   agriculture   rainfall  index   (ARI)   in   1990.   Ten   agroclima@c   (ARI)   zones   were  iden@fied  according  to  the  number  of  consecu@ve  dry  and  consecu@ve   wet   months.   The   agroclima@c   maps   defined  the   various   regions   according   to   the   varia@ons   in  environmental   requirements   of   different   crops   as   well   as  on   the   regional   differences   of   the   natural   environment,  par@cularly  climate  and  soils.  

ADAPTATION  

The  use  of  Soil  Suitability  Criteria  for  crop  producYon    Physical   and   chemical   proper@es   of   the   soil   affect   crop  produc@on.  Soil  depth,  texture,  clay  frac@on,  soil  structure,  bulk  density   and   available   soil   moisture   are   among   the   major   soil  physical   proper@es   that   affect   crop   produc@on.   Soil   reac@on,  ca@on  exchange   capacity   and  nutrient   composi@on  are   the   soil  chemical  proper@es,  important  in  crop  produc@on.      By   considering   these   proper@es   in   soil   suitability   classifica@on,  the  success  of  a  crop  produc@on  endeavour  can  be  ensured  with  a  reasonable  margin  of  safety.      

Others  Adapta@on  Measures    

ü Develop   plant   varie@es   that   are   tolerant   to   high  temperatures  and  high  water  use  efficiency  

 ü Preserve   Permanent   Forest   Reserves   and   water  catchment   areas   to   ensure   adequate   water   supply  for  agriculture  

 ü Strengthen   agricultural   extension   services   (soil  conserva@on  measure  and  produc@on  efficiency)  

 

Others  Adapta@on  Measures  

ü Strengthen   Integrated   Pest   Management   (IPM)  and   biocontrol   procedures   to   deal   incidences   of  pest  and  diseases  

ü Improve   regional   and   interna@onal   coopera@on  on  agriculture-­‐  climate  change  related  issues  

ü Introduce   agriculture   insurance   to  minimize   risk  related  to  climate  change    

THANK  YOU  

IN  BRIEF  

•  Climate  component  press  

Climate  change  in  Malaysia    (Mahmudul  Alam  et  al.  2013)  

•  According   to   the   United   Na@onsDevelopment   Report,   carbon  dioxide  emissions  in  Malaysia  increased  by  221%  during  the  period  of  1990  to  2004,    

•  the   country   is   included   in   the   list   of   30   biggest   greenhouse   gas  emihers.    

•  Curb  Global  Warming  (2007)  quoted  from  the  Associated  Press  (AP)  that  rapid  growth  in  emissions  has  occurred  even  though  Malaysia  ra@fied  the  Kyoto  Protocol  and  has  taken  several   ini@a@ves  to  use  renewable  energy  as  well  as  ways  to  cut  emissions.  

•  Currently   Malaysia   ranks   as   the   26th   largest   greenhouse   gas  emiher   in   the  world  with  a  popula@on  of  about  27  million,  and   it  appears  likely  to  move  up  the  list  quickly  due  to  the  growth  rate  of  emissions.  

•  The   clima@c   change   causes   change   in   several  agriculture   relevant   factors   that   determine   the  sustainability  of  agricultural  produc@on.    

•  Farmers   believe   that   vulnerability   of   some   of   the  factors  like    –  injurious  insects  (supported  by  42.9%  of  the  farmers),    –  temperature  (supports  by  58.6%  of  the  farmers),    –  soil  fer@lity  loss  (supports  by  49.5%  of  the  farmers),  –  cost  of  inputs  (supports  by  61.1%  of  the  farmers),    –  shortage  of  rainfall  (supports  by  45.5%  of  the  farmers),    –  excessive   rainfall   (supports   by   35.9%   farmers)   increased  over  the  last  5  years  (Alam  et  al.,  2011b).