Climate change:

Are we up to the challenge?

Graeme I PearmanDirector, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty LtdAdjunct Senior Research Fellow, Monash UniversityBoard, The Climate Institute, START International

Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?

• What is the climate change issue?

September 20, 2010 Aust. Inst. Physics/Roy. Aust. Chemical Inst. Climate Change: Spreading the GOOD News

The climate change issue

Emissions

Choice of technology

Energy demand

Affl

uenc

ePopul

atio

n Efficiency

Human health

Climate change Sea

leve

lRai

nfall

Biodiv

ersi

ty

GDP

Agricultu

re

Aspirations Energy supply/demandClimate system

Climate impacts

The climate change issue

Emissions

Choice of technology

Energy demand

Affl

uenc

ePopul

atio

n Efficiency

Human health

Climate change Sea

leve

lRai

nfall

Biodiv

ersi

ty

• Vested interests• Natural resources• Ignorance• Market failure

GDP

Culture, education, advertising, promotions

Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of:

• Wellbeing• Success

• Risk assessment• Beliefs• Ignorance• Sectoral interests

Agricultu

re

Aspirations Energy supply/demandClimate system

Climate impacts

What is possible?What we know and don’t know is based on:

• Principles of physics and fluid dynamics– Greenhouse gases impact global temperature known for 120 years

• Observed change - distant past– We can not take climate stability for granted

• Observed change - recent past– Warming has occurred with associated changes to biology, water

availability, etc.

• Anticipated future climate change– Unless emissions are reduced, warming will continue

• Anticipated impacts– On all sectors of the society, but unevenly spread

• Uncertainty– Remains and this will always be so

Key questions to be addressed

• What is climate change?– The change to the long-term weather due to

greenhouse gases

• Has the Earth’ climate changed in the past?– Yes, “enormously” through geologic times

• Has the climate changed recently?– Yes, the atmosphere and oceans have warned globally

and in Australia

• Are humans the cause?– Our use of energy is increasing greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere, and this is very likely the reason for recent warming

Key questions to be addressed

• What will happen into the future?– Depends on how much more we emit these gases

• What are the consequences?– It will have significant impact on society and the

environment

• How do we deal with the uncertainties of the science?– We weigh the probability of the scientific projections

being correct against the impact if they are– But this challenges many who wish perfect anticipation

of the future

Global surface temperature changerelative to 1951-1980 mean

Hanson et al. (2010)

Trend in sea surface temperature, 1970-2009 (oC/10 years)

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi

Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements

Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet

Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.

Contributed 0.4 mm/year sea level rise

Contributed 0.6 mm/year sea level rise

Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements

http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94.

Ch

ang

e in

mea

n s

ea l

evel

(m

m)

40

20

0

-20

It is the high pressure ridge that dominates much of our climate

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Long-term changes of the intensity (pressure ) of the Autumn-Winter subtropical ridge and global

average temperature+ 1.0

- 1.0

0.0

1920 1940 19801960

0.0

+ 0.4

- 1.0

Pre

ssu

re (

hP

a)T

emp

erature (

oC)

Timbal et al. (2009): South eastern Australian Climate Initiative

Planetary biology is changing

E.g. For south-eastern Australia marine fish

• “dramatic” warming of the ocean observed

• 45 species of fish exhibit major geographic shifts thought to be climate related

Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr.

Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?

• What is the climate change issue?

• What is it about us that causes this issue?

Dec. 02, 2009

Emissions are on the high side of projections

Le Quéré et al. (2009).

High end of projections

Role of coal

Economic growth in developing world

Affluence and expectations

National anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases

Mt CO2 equivalent (excluding forestry/land-use change), 2009

Australia 549Canada 732China 7219 France 550Germany 977Italy 566Indonesia 594Japan 1343Russia 1960United Kingdom665United States 6964

World Resources Institute (2009)

Emissions Per Person

SOURCE: ClimateWorks, Monash

Cost curve to reduce emissions by 249 Mt CO2e by 2020

Commercial retrofit energy waste reduction

Petroleum and gas maintenance

Pasture and grassland management

Residential appliances and electronics

Commercial retrofit HVAC

10050 1500 200 250

Active livestock feeding

Gas CCS new build

Solar PV (centralised)

Chemicals processes and fuel shift

Anti-methanogenic treatments

Wind offshore

Other industry energy efficiency

Commercial new builds

Commercial retrofit lighting

Residential lighting

Reforestation of marginal land with timber plantation

Mining VAM oxidation

Cement clinker substitution by slag

Coal to gas shift (increased

gas utilisation)

Residential new builds

Mining energy efficiency

Diesel car and light commercial efficiency improvement

Aluminium energy efficiency

Reforestation of marginal land with environmental forest

Commercial elevators and appliances

Petrol car and light commercial efficiency improvement Reduced cropland soil emissions

Commercial retrofit insulation

Cogeneration

Operational improvements to existing coal plant thermal efficiency

Reduced T&D losses

Cropland carbon sequestration

Degraded farmland restoration

Coal CCS new build with EOR

Capital improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency

Solar thermal

Biomass/biogas

Biomass co-firing

Onshore wind (marginal locations)

Improved forest management Geothermal

Coal to gas shift (gas new build) Onshore wind (best locations)

Strategic reforestation of non-marginal

land with environmental forest

Reduced deforestation and regrowth clearing

Commercial retrofit water heating

Operational improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency

Coal CCS new build

Emissions reduction potential Mt per year

IndustryPower

Transport

Cost to society

A$/tCO2e

-200

-100

200

100

0

BuildingsForestryAgriculture

E.g. The energy sector

• Particularly impacted by emissions reduction efforts– Taxes, trading schemes, energy efficiency,

alternative energy sources

• Weighed against expense to agriculture, water sector, natural environment, tourism, national or regional security, etc.

• Need for more holistic options whereby interests of any one sector/nation do not:– Dominate policy development or the

availability of information

Future motor vehicle fuel security

Oil Imports

Motor vehicle fuels and

technologies

3. Carbon dioxide

Emissions

Carbon Pollution

Reduction Scheme

Energy efficiency

targets

Renewable energy targets

Rising costs

Increased global demand-Falling

availability

Rapidly diminishing national production

Limited supplies-peak oil

Threat of conflict

Biofuels Food, water

4. Pollutants Human health

1. Fuel security

2. Balance of payments

5. Rising demand

Affluence PopulationEmployment

Social coherence

August 22, 2010August 07, 2010

Notional futures of oil for car transport

Jamison (2009)

Carbon dioxide emissions under notional futures for Australian car transport

Pearman et al. (2009) http://www.mynrma.com.au/cps/rde/xbcr/mynrma/Jamison-Group-Fuelling-Future-Passenger-Vehicle-Use-in-Australia-February2010.pdf?cpssessionid=SID-34E2763C-9A249675

20

40

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2 emissions with business as usual

With intervention (renewable electricity)

Intervention but black coal electricity

Intervention but brown coal electricity generation

CO

2 em

issi

on

s, (

Tg

CO

2 o

r M

t C

O2)

Energy options, the rush is on:

Energy efficiency strategies

• Reducing the reliance on energy for production, transportation and storage

• Resources use and recovery

• Mitigation is an urgent/essential response but needs to:– Consider many options: uncertainties surround all options-

economics, technologies, rate of implementation, societal and environmental issues: Deliver resilience

McIntosh (2008): Hell and High Water: Climate Change, Hope and the Human Condition

• “….the problem is driven not by fundamental human needs, but by manipulated wants that find expression in consumerism”

Affluenza• “The bloated, sluggish unfulfilled feeling that

results from efforts to keep up with the Joneses”

• “An epidemic of stress, overwork, waste and indebtedness caused by dogged pursuits of the Australian dream”

• “An unsustainable addiction to economic growth”

• “a condition in which we are confused about what it takes to live a worthwhile life”

Hamilton and Denniss (2005): Affluence: When too much is never enough

Messages about sustainability

The climate change issue results from:

• Our expectations– Culture, history, education, market economy,

advertising

• Technological innovations

• Our choices

• Natural resource inheritance

Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?

• What is the climate change issue?• What is it about us that causes this issue?

• What is it about us that makes it hard to respond?

Probability of change

Magnitude/sensitivity to change

Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity

Potential Exposure

VulnerabilityRisk

Strategy

Mitigate

Managed adaptation

Resilience

Socio-Economic capacity

Willingness to adapt

How well do we assess risk?

• There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747– How many could be removed or rendered

inoperable before you would decide not to fly?

• IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance of a 20-30% of all species being at risk with a warming of 1.5-2.5oC– There has been virtually no media or public

attention to this risk

• What are the consequences of inoperable ecosystems?

550 750 Ref450

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Coping Range Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

Wat

er a

vail

abil

ity

Co

asta

l C

om

mu

nit

ies

En

erg

y S

ecu

rity

Maj

or

Infr

astr

uct

ure

Hea

t re

late

d d

eath

s

To

uri

sm

Ag

ricu

ltu

re a

nd

Fo

rest

ry

Fo

od

Sec

uri

ty

Nat

ura

l E

cosy

stem

s

2050

2050

2050

2050

2100

2100

2100

2100

Eq

uil

22 C

Eq

uil E

qu

il

Based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

oC

• Science pursues “truth” and thus is typically lagging, searching for certainty

• In contrast, risk management is pragmatic and proactive stance (leading approach) aimed at balancing the probabilities of an event occurring against its potential impact

• This disparity often leads the general community to underestimate the practical risks implicated by scientific conclusions

Pearman and Härtel (2009)

Emotional responses

Coping mechanisms

Anxious Minimising

Scared Denying

Sad Avoiding

Threat Depressed Scepticism

Numb Desensitises

Helpless Depend on others

Hopeless Resigned

Frustrated Cynical

Angry Fed up

Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems

Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/

Assumption about rationality

Common assumptions

• People are essentially rational

• Rationality is conscious (we choose)

• Denial is a kind of irrationality

• Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information

Alternative assumptions

• What is rational in one context may be irrational in another

• Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious

• Every rationality is guided by emotion

De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC

Fien et al. (2008): personal communication

• Standard economics: Assumes “…all human decisions are rational and informed..”

• Behavioural economics: “ …people are susceptible to

irrelevant influences …emotions, short-sightedness”

Ariely (2009): Predictably Irrational

• Now Identity Economics“Peoples identity defines who

they are..(and this) influences their decisions..”

Akerlof and Kranton (2010): Identity economics

September 16, 2010 Probis Club of Melbourne

Leadership• At all levels: Government Federal, State and

Local, UK, bi-lateral, you

• Industry:– “Look beyond coal, big miner says”– “a clear price on energy”– “Failure to do so will place us at a competitive

disadvantage.• BHP Billiton Marius Kloppers CEO• The Age, September 16, 2010

• You, at home, work, in the community

Human dimensions of What is Possible?

• Capturing of advice– Role of science, media, education

• Nature of scepticism– Experiential versus observational/theoretical views– Scepticism as a tool or a crutch

• Formulation of attitudes– Perception of success– Belief/value structures, religion, cultural, ethos of

sustainability• Basic belief structures

– Conservatisms, consumerism and competition– Vested interests– Managing risk– Perception of risk and probabilities, response to threat– Role of companies, governments and the individual

Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)

Change ManagementEngineer/physical

scientistPsychologists/social

scientist

Focus Processes, systems People

Business practices

BPR, TQM, ISO9000, quality

Human resources, OD

Starting point

Business issues or opportunities

Personal change, employee resistance (or potential for it)

Measure of success

Metrics of business performance, financial/statistical

Job satisfaction, turnover, productivity loss

Perspective on change

“Shoot the stragglers, carry the wounded”

“Help individuals make sense of what change means to them”

Based on Hiatt (http://www.change-management.com/tutorial-definition-history.htm

Human dimensions of What is Acceptable?• Dealing with uncertainty and probability

– Weighing probabilities, reality and the non-reality world– Acceptance of change versus protection of status quo

• Risk assessment– Capturing opportunities, reluctance to act/change– Concerns/perceived responsibilities for culture and environment

• Sharing responsibility– Government and/or personal or corporate responsibilities– Behavioural and/or institutional change– Technologies and/or behavioural change– Mitigation and/or adaptation

• Perceptions of danger– Value of present and/or future– Perceived values of biodiversity

• Personal responsibility and empowerment– Given “rights”, cultural connections, loss of identity and place– Strategic-ness versus conservativeness

Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)

Human dimensions of What is Equitable?

• Recognising personal/regional differences in:– Exposure, capacity to adapt mitigate & fund responses– Understanding/awareness of CC & available options– Matching differential exposure to aspirational needs of

the wider community

• Responding with– Formal, workforce and public education– Improved/new management and energy practices– Balance across all sectors and jurisdictions– Changes to personal lifestyles and expectations– Protections in transition for exposed sectors/persons

Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)

Convergence

Social evolutionSuccess

Social evolution is opportunistic and devoid of strategic direction

Time

Environment

No

relation

to w

here th

e fu

ture m

igh

t best b

eDiversity

Biological evolutionSuccess

Time/selection

Technological opportunities

Social institutions

Hill (2006 p8): What Are Rational Goals For Development?

Dominant view of society

Alternative view of society

Goals Productivity Nourishment, shelter

Profit Fulfilment

Power Sustainability, maintenance

Objective More (no limit) Enough (limit)

Means Growth Balance

Competition Cooperation

Centralisation Decentralisation

Non-renewable resources

Wasted, exhausted Limited, prioritised users

Renewable resources

Degraded Require balance management

The Human Condition

Stressed Joyful

Detached Integrated

Degenerating Evolving

Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?

• What is the climate change issue?• What is it about us that causes this issue?• What is it about us that makes it hard to respond?

• Conclusions

Messages about sustainability

Solutions to the climate change issue depend on:

• Acceptance that we will not know all that we would like to know before action is necessary

– We have to manage the risk

• We need to challenge the largely unconscious drivers of our behaviour, institutions and society

– Commercialism– Advertising– Non-strategic social evolution

Things to do• Understand your “energy” and “water” footprints

–How much you use–From what activities–With what flexibility–It is empowering- you have personal options then

• Set targets of reduction–Monitor power, gas and petroleum bills–Assess $ and carbon savings–Reward success

•Your kids•Your employees

–Be educated/equipped to make better purchases

• Tell others–Especially local and regional Governments–Your teacher, parents, boss

• Above all, examine what it is that is really important

Climate change: A most challenging issue• Diabolical because it is:

– Uncertain in its format and extent– Insidious rather than (as yet) confrontational– Long-term rather than immediate– International as well as national– Dangerous in the absence of effective mitigation

• It results from the very way we are as individuals and the way our societies have evolved– Our aspirations and energy demands– Concepts of what represents ‘success’ and ‘happiness’– Institutional frameworks that influence conformity and

community-wide values

• Solutions depend on changes that potentially threaten those aspirations, belief systems and attitudes