april 02, 2012science teachers for climate awareness climate change - science, society & us...

April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Climate Change - Science, Society & Us

Graeme I Pearman

Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty LtdAdjunct Research Fellow, Monash UniversityBoard, The Climate Institute, START International


• What is the climate-change issue about?• Observed global change• Risk, mitigation & adaptation• Human dimensions


July 28, 2011

The climate change issue

Emissions

Choice of technology

Energy demand

Affl

uenc

ePopul

atio

n Efficiency

Human health

Climate change

Sea le

velRai

nfall

Biodiv

ersi

ty

• Vested interests• Natural resources• Ignorance• Market failure

GDP

Culture, education, advertising, promotions

Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of:

• Wellbeing• Success

• Risk assessment• Beliefs• Ignorance• Sectoral interests

Agricultu

re

AspirationsEnergy

supply/demandClimate system

Climate impacts

Pearman (2012): Aust.J.Environ.Managment

4

On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction by John Tyndall: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Volume 151, (1861), pp. 1-36

May 12, 2011 The CEO CircleMelbourne

5

Oxygen concentration at Cape Grim, TasmaniaDecline due to combustion of fuels slightly modified

by net growth of global vegetation

1990 1995 2000 2005

0

Keeling et al. 2007

-100

-200

-300

O2

/N2

rat

io (

per

meg

)


Global average temperature is rising


Mean air temperatureAverage of the past 10 years is in darker grey

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

Tem

per

atu

re d

iffe

ren

ce (

oC

)

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2000


Mean sea surface temperatureAverage of the past 10 years is in darker grey

1910

Tem

per

atu

re d

iffe

ren

ce (

oC

)

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2000

0.4

0.0

-0.4

Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements

http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94.

Ch

ang

e in

mea

n s

ea l

evel

(m

m)

40

20

0

-20


Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements

Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet

Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.

Contributed 0.4 mm/year sea level rise

Contributed 0.6 mm/year sea level rise

Rel

ativ

e Ic

e M

ass

(bil

lio

n t

on

nes

)

400

800

0

-800

-400

20032009200720052003 2005 2007 2009


It is the high pressure ridge that dominates much of our climate

Australian Bureau of Meteorology


Annual average global temperature & intensity of the pressure of the subtropical ridge

0.0

0.2

0.4

-0.2

-0.4-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.4

0.2

0.6

20001980194019201900

Glo

bal

mea

n t

emp

erat

ure

an

om

aly

(oC

, ▬

)

Su

b t

rop

ical

rid

ge

pre

ssu

re a

no

mal

y (h

Pa,

….)

1960

Timbal et al. (2009): South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

The Centennial Drought• 13-year drought in the region is unprecedented in:

– Extent– Lower year-to-year rainfall variability – Seasonal pattern of the rainfall decline

• 13% lower rainfall led to a 46% decline in river flow– 65% of reduction due to the reduced annual rainfall, 7%

to increased temperature, 28% unexplained

• Low autumn and winter/spring rain linked to:– Broadening Hadley Circulation & subtropical ridge

intensification– Associated with global warming/greenhouse gases– Natural variability and ozone depletion also likely

contributing factors

• Increasing rainfall from systems to the northSouth Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

Rainfall decline in SEA since 1997

Hanh Nguyen, CAWCR – BOM

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

/mo

nth

)

20th century

1997-2011

Anomalies 97 - 11

Anomalies 97 - 09


Planetary biology is changing

• “dramatic” warming of the oceans has been observed

• 45 species exhibit major geographic shifts thought to be climate related

Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr.

E.g. For south-eastern Australian marine fish

Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

CHINA

USAIN

DIA

RUSSIA

JAPAN

GERMANY

IRAN

SOUTH KOREA

CANADA

UNITED K

INGDOM

MEXIC

O

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH AFRIC

A

INDONESIA

ITALY

BRAZIL

AUSTRALIA

FRANCE (inl.

Monac

o)

POLAND

SPAIN

1

2

3

4

5

CO

2 em

issi

on

s (G

t C

y-1)

Per C

apita E

missio

ns (to

nn

es C p

erson

-1 y-1)

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

Dec. 02, 2009

Emissions are on the high side of projections

Le Quéré et al. (2009).

High end of projections

Role of coal

Economic growth in developing world

Affluence and expectations

Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis

Peters et al. (2011): Nature Climate Change: (2011) DOI:doi:10.1038/nclimate1332

Fo

ssil

-fu

el C

O2

emis

sio

ns

(Pg

C y

r-1)

Carb

on

inten

sity of th

e econ

om

y (g C

per $U

S)

4

6

8

10

100

150

200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Global financial crisis

Asian financial crisis

US savings & loans crisis

Collapse of the FSU

Oil crisis


Primary climate-change drivers

Carbon dioxide

TemperatureAverageExtremesSeasonality

RainfallAverageExtremesseasonality

Humidity

Winds

Complex & secondary outcomes

affected by magnitude &

frequency

Drought

Run off

Soil Moisture

Soil erosions

Salination

Sea level

Ecosystem & human system impacts

Growth rates: Plants and animals

Seed quality

Vernalisation/ seed set

Species competition

Coastal inundation

Built environment

Economic & environment-al outcomes

Crop, pasture & agriculture system productivity

Ecosystem integrity, genetic richness, resilience

Ecosystem services

Replacement of built facilities

Societal risks

Environmental aesthetics, and function, Tourism

Cultural values, indigenous rights

Human systems management of vulnerabilities

Food production, fisheries, crops, pastures, horticulture

Human Health

Security, wellbeing

Intergenerational legacy

Increasing complexity of systemsDecreasing confidence of regionality of change projectionsIncreasing opportunity of adaptive changes to nullify effectsIncreasing opportunities for extraneous forcing to influence futureIncreasing identification of nature/magnitude of impactsDecreasing confidence in probability of occurrence

Key Vulnerabilities

Natural systems

Water security

Fire and drought

Coastal communities

Bio-security

Critical infrastructure and threats to life

National security

Complexity and confidence(for illustrative purpose only)

Risk arises from multiple directions (e.g. food sector)

• Change in productive capacity of the land– Tradeoffs: water, food, fibre, bio-fuels, ecosystems

• Changes to available natural resources– Ecosystem services, water

• Threats to infrastructure– Storms, hail, inundation

• Changing impacts globally– Competitors, suppliers, markets

• Revolutionary changes to energy– Sources, utilisation and costs


Ri = f(Pi, Mi) T = Σi=αRi

Probability of change

Magnitude/sensitivity to change

Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity

Potential Exposure

VulnerabilityRisk

Strategy

Mitigate

Managed adaptation

Resilience

Risk Assessment


In this state of uncertainty

We have to do the best we can at this point in time by:

• Managing the risk

• Retaining a portfolio of options

• Keeping options open

• Regular reviewing of policy/approaches in light of new knowledge

550 750 Ref450

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Coping Range Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

Wat

er a

vail

abil

ity

Co

asta

l C

om

mu

nit

ies

En

erg

y S

ecu

rity

Maj

or

Infr

astr

uct

ure

Hea

t re

late

d d

eath

s

To

uri

sm

Ag

ricu

ltu

re a

nd

Fo

rest

ry

Fo

od

Sec

uri

ty

Nat

ura

l E

cosy

stem

s

2050

2050

2050

2050

2100

2100

2100

2100

Eq

uil

22 C

Eq

uil E

qu

il

Pearman (2008): http://www.treasury.gov.au/lowpollutionfuture/consultants_report/downloads/

Risk_in_Australia_under_alternative_emissions_futures.pdft.

oC


26

Sorting the options for holistic strategies

1. Cost– What are the costs now & when mainstream?– Of stranded assets?– Delivery to market?

2. Technical and physical feasibility– Is it proven or speculative?

3. Capacity to meet demands on time– Can it deliver significant energy on time?

4. Capacity to deliver on time


27

Sorting the options for holistic strategies

5. Is it acceptable to the community?– Impacts on:

• National security of supply• Human health• Environmental/ biodiversity• Community versus vested or narrow interests• Jobs• Political will

6. Permanency of emissions reductions– Sequestration versus efficiency?

http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/securing-a-clean-energy-future-summary.pdf

Securing a clean energy future


Securing a clean energy future

A carbon price alone is not enough!

This is more about a future energy strategy

http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/clean-energy-future/our-plan/


Bio-sequestration

• The Australian Government: Securing a Clean Energy Future, includes:– Tax/carbon trading– Energy efficiency– Renewables– Farm carbon

• The Liberal Party’s policy of “Direct action on the environment and climate change” claims:– Bio-sequestration to be “the single largest

opportunity for CO2 emissions reduction in Australia”

Annual energy amounts

Australian photosynthetic capture (7.20 x 1019 J)

Australian use of fossil fuels (5.80 x 1018 J)

Australian use by cars (7.20 x 1017 J)

Australian wheat crop (3.20 x 1017 J)

Solar radiation intercepted by the Earth (5.75 x 1024 J)

Energy stored in all fossil fuels (3.0 x 1023 J)

Content of global atmospheric motions (2.28 x 1021 J)

500 MW power station (1.58 x 1016 J)

Hiroshima (6.30 x 1013 J)

Hurricane Katrina(1.20 x 1014 J)

Fossil formation(3.80 x 1014 J)

12(terra)

15(peta)

18(exa)

21(Zetta)

24(yotta)

Energy exchange (J yr-1)


But this demands an holistic consideration• Including assessment of:

– The bio-physical constraints– Rate at which change can take place– Potential for other environmental impacts (e.g. net carbon loss from land

clearing, nitrogen emissions, biodiversity impacts, improved agricultural soils)

– Co-benefits such as human health, jobs, community coherence– Potential impact of a changing climate– Balance of payments– Security of energy supply– Education, training, community acceptance– Likely economic costs

• Innovation based on a narrow focus may deliver unanticipated, if not undesirable, outcomes

• Today’s decisions & diversion of public/private dollars may create currently unidentified problems for the future

Pearman (2012)


Climate change belief types in Australia

After: Iain Walker CSIRO

What best describes your thoughts about CC?

50.4% 40.2%

5.6%3.8%

I don’t think it is happening

I have no idea whether it is happening or not

I think it is happening, but it is just a natural fluctuation in Earth temperatures

I think it is happening and that humans are largely causing it


It is not just handful of sceptics

Public support

Scientists identify threat to sustainability

Inform risk analysis Inform wider community

Messages filtered by:1. Behavioral responses, e.g.

• Diverse views of what is rational• Constructivism• Diverse emotional reactions and coping mechanisms• Beliefs: ideologies, just world, conservatism, myths, attitudes etc.• Vested interests/targeted scepticism

2. Institutional structures, e.g.• Sectoralised society• Non strategic evolution of societal structures

Development of public & private policies 35


36

Assumptions about rationality

Common assumptions

• People are essentially rational

• Rationality is conscious (we choose)

• Denial is a kind of irrationality

• Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information

Alternative assumptions

• What is rational in one context may be irrational in another

• Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious

• Every rationality is guided by emotion

De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC

Fien et al. (2008): personal communication


37

Emotional responses

Coping mechanisms

Anxious Minimising

Scared Denying

Sad Avoiding

Threat Depressed Scepticism

Numb Desensitises

Helpless Depend on others

Hopeless Resigned

Frustrated Cynical

Angry Fed up

Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems

Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/


Conflicting bases for policy development

RationalismIdeas of the way the world is, based on observation, measurement & rational deduction

Rational sectorally- defined description of the real world

Rational holistically- defined description of the real world

Evidence-based policy development

Policy development


Conflicting bases for policy development

ConstructivismIdeas of the way the world is, constructed from & heavily influenced by, subjective perceptions, rules & beliefs

RationalismIdeas of the way the world is, based on observation, measurement & rational deduction

Rational sectorally- defined description of the real world

Rational holistically- defined description of the real world

Evidence-based policy development

Policy development

The “non-reality world”


“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie - deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic

Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought”

John F. Kennedy (1917 – 1963)


41

ConvergenceSocial evolution

Success

Social evolution is opportunistic and devoid of strategic direction

Environment

No

relation

to w

here th

e fu

ture m

igh

t best b

e

DiversityBiological evolution

Success

Time/selection

Technological opportunities

Social institutions


Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (1):

1. Strategic thinking:– Not stuck with the notion that the way it has been is

the way of the future; grasping the opportunities this creates

2. Leadership:– There will be risks and opportunities; risk has to be

managed; being an early starter has advantages

3. Flexibility:– Uncertainty is a normal state to be managed; manage

the risks through ongoing learning, diversity & nimbleness


Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (2):

3. Markets:– Use them but accept that there are externalities;

balance markets approaches with non-market tools

4. Reflection:– Consider how our expectations, culture, history,

education, market economy, advertising, etc. impact on our behaviour/institutions. Much of this is subconscious & changeable; by bringing motivations to the surface we can challenge their validity

5. Holism:– Rarely are solutions without the potential for co-

benefits or dis-benefits. Be wary of sectoralism & maximise value by seeking the former


Leunig, The Age, July 9, 2011

Where to get your facts• Australian Academy of Science: The science of climate change:

Questions and answers: www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange2020.html

• Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO: State of the Climate 2012: • http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx

• Royal Society of London: Climate change: a summary of the science: http://royalsociety.org/climate-change-summary-of-science/

• The Climate Institute: Climate Change Making Up Your Mind:http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/images/makingupyourmind_top10_web.pdf

• Bureau of Meteorology: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/

• NASA: Global Climate Change: http://climate.nasa.gov/

• US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch

• UK Meteorology Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/

• New Scientist: Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462

• Deutsche Bank: Primer on answers to CC sceptics: http://www.dbcca.com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710.pdf

april 02, 2012science teachers for climate awareness climate change - science, society & us...

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