Climate Change Driven Variations in the Wave Climate along the Coast of Vietnam Rev.5

March 2014

Authors :

Supott Thammasittirong (AIT) Sutat Weesakul (AIT)

Ali Dastgheib (UNESCO-IHE) Roshanka Ranasinghe (UNESCO-IHE)

i

Executive Summary

Introduction

This report presents the results of the study of the Climate Change Driven Variations

in the Wave Climate along the Coast of Vietnam. This project was funded by Ministry

of environment and infrastructure of the Netherlands.

Vietnam has been identified by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,

2007, 2014) as one of the countries that might be most affected by climate change. In

particular the Mekong and the Red River deltas, with their extremely high population

density in low lying areas, are severely threatened by sea level rise and anticipated

increases in the frequency and intensity of typhoons and storms. The coastline of

Vietnam is presently severely eroded and mangrove forests are reduced in area and

density by severe storms and sea level rise.

Changes in regional wave climate, in response to climate change driven variations of

atmospheric circulation, are of interest from many different perspectives, particularly

in the coastal zone. Significant change in wave climate due to climate change in turn

will affect the coastal morphology, coastline position and orientation and the efficacy

of coastal structures.

To this date, no study has been carried out to determine the effect of climate change on

the offshore wave climate along this coast. The present study was undertaken to

address this knowledge gap.

Objective

The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of climate change on the

offshore wave climate along the entire coastline of Vietnam.

Methodology

In this study, a third generation numerical wave model forced with future projected

wind data from selected Global Circulation Models (GCMs) is used to simulate the

future offshore wave climate along Vietnam coast.

A MIKE21 model was setup for the South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. Results

were subjected to detailed analysis at 14 locations along the coast of Vietnam (Figure

E-1).

The model is forced by NCEP/CFSR winds (benchmark simulation) and climate

model derived winds with 2 GCMs (GFDL CM 2.1 and ECHAM5), that had been

downscaled by CSIRO’s Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) at 0.5° x 0.5°

resolution. The model is validated by running hindcast simulations for the1981 to

2000 time slice (i.e. present condition) and comparing model results with wave data

from the ship observations at two locations, Hon Dau and Hon Ngu and with ERA-40

wave data at three locations, Point B, Point E and Point K (Figure E-1). The mean

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significant wave height, wave period and wave direction from simulations with

NCEP/CFSR, ECHAM and GFDL wind input for the 1981 - 2000 time slice showed

very small differences. Thus the model was considered sufficiently validated.

Subsequently, the model was used to simulate the future time slices 2041 - 2060 and

2081 - 2100 forced with downscaled winds from GFDL CM 2.1 and ECHAM5 for the

high end A2 climate change scenario (comparable to RCP 8.5 in IPCC 2013).

Figure E-1. Offshore locations along the Vietnam coast at which the effect of climate change

on the wave climate was analysed (shown by red tick sysmbols).

Summary Results

Future mean significant wave height under the effect of climate change along the

North coast of Vietnam is projected to be smaller by about 8 cm (compared to the

present) with slightly longer wave periods (increase of 0.20 s), while future wave

direction is projected to shift towards the south (clockwise) by less than 4 degrees.

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Along the central coast, future mean significant wave height is projected to slightly

increase by 5 cm, wave period to increase by less than 0.08 s and wave direction is

projected to shift to the south (clockwise) by less than 6 degrees. Along the South

coast of Vietnam, the future mean significant wave height is projected to slightly

increase by 7 cm with longer wave period (increase of 0.16 s) and future wave

direction is projected to shift towards the north (counter-clockwise) by less than 8

degrees.

The spatial distribution of the future mean significant wave height showed decreases

of wave height along the North coast (Stations Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A and B) of less

than 8 cm and increases of wave height along the South coast (Station G, G1, K, L, L1

and O) of less than 4 cm. The spatial distribution of future mean wave period showed

increases of less than 0.20 s along the North coast and less than 0.20 s along the South

coast. The spatial distribution of future wave direction showed a clockwise rotation of

wave direction (rotation towards the south) of less than 8 degrees along the North

coast (Station Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A and B) and the Central coast (Station C, C1, E

and E1). On the other hand, future wave direction is projected to rotate counter

clockwise (rotation towards the north) along the south coast (Station G, G1, K, L, L1

and O) by less than 8 degrees.

The most significant future potential change in the mean wave climate along the

Vietnam coast is therefore the projected changes in wave directions, leading to a zone

of wave direction divergence in the vicinity of Danang. This could result in longshore

currents and sediment transports that diverge in this area, potentially leading to

unprecedented rates of coastal erosion and coastline recession in the vicinity of

Danang.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary i

Table of Contents iv

List of Figures vi

List of Tables viii

1. Introduction 1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Statement of Problems 2

1.3 Objectives of the Study 2

1.4 Scope of the Study 3

1.5 Limitations 3

2 Literature Review 5

2.1 Numerical Wind-Wave Models 5

2.1.1 Third Generation Spectral Wave Models 6

2.1.2 Wave Model Processes and Scales 7

2.1.3 Modeling Spectral Wind-Wave with MIKE21 SW Models 8

2.2 Changing of Wave Climate from Climate Variability 9

2.3 Coastal Study and Climate Change in Vietnam 12

3 Theoretical Considerations 14

3.1 Spectral Wind-Wave Model 14

3.1.1 Governing Equations and Formulations 14

3.1.2 Source Term Functions 14

3.2 Energy Transfer 19

3.3 Initial and Boundary Conditions 19

3.4 Model Outputs 19

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4 Methodology and Data Collection 20

4.1 Methodology 20

4.2 Data Collection 20

5 Results and Discussion 29

5.1 Model Calibration 29

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5.2 Modeling Result of Present Wave Climate 37

5.3 Modeling Result of Future Wave Climate 47

5.3.1 Monthly and Annual Mean Wave Climate 47

5.3.2 Probability Distribution 53

5.3.3 Spatial Distribution 59

6 Conclusion 63

References 66

Appendix A Performance Measurement 69

Appendix B Result of Present Wave Climate 72

Appendix C Result of Monthly Mean Future Wave Climate 91

Appendix D Result of Probability Wave Climate 135

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LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE PAGE

1.1 Main cities in Vietnam 4

2.1 Scales of wave processes 8

2.2 Layout of the forcing and output data sets: combinations of control

(C) and emission scenarios (A refers to A2; B refers to B2) and

GCMs (H denotes HadAM3H; E denotes ECHAM4/OPYC3) used

as driving data for the regional climate model (R, RCAO), and six

WAM (W) output data sets named with respect to the six driving

data sets derived from the RCAO model (Grabemann, 2008)

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4.1 Research framework of this present study 21

4.2 Conceptual of modeling study 22

4.3 Bathymetric map of the computational domain 24

4.4 CCAM and representation of wind components (McGregor, 2005) 25

4.5 Locations of ERA-40 and ship observation 27

5.1-1 Locations of wave data for model calibration 30

5.1-2 Result of model calibration at Hon Dau 32

5.1-3 Scatter plot of wave height at Hon Dau 32

5.1-4 Result of model calibration at Hon Ngu 33

5.1-5 Scatter plot of wave height at Hon Ngu 33

5.1-6 Result of model calibration at Point B 34

5.1-7 Scatter plot of wave height at Point B 34

5.1-8 Result of model calibration at Point E 35

5.1-9 Scatter plot of wave height at Point E 35

5.1-10 Result of model calibration at Point K 36

5.1-11 Scatter plot of wave height at Point K 36

5.2-1 Locations of wave climate output from modeling 38

5.2-2 Present wave parameter at Hon Dau 39

5.2-3 Present wave parameter at Point G 40

5.2-4 Monthly mean significant wave height (Hm0) 41

5.2-5 Summary of mean wave parameters and their differences 46

5.3.1-1 Change of monthly mean wave parameters at Hon Dau 50

5.3.1-2 Change of monthly mean wave parameters at Point G 51

5.3.1-3 Change of annual wave parameters 52

5.3.2-1 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Hon

Dau 54

5.3.2-2 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point

G 55

5.3.2-3 Change of probability distribution at Hon Dau 56

5.3.2-4 Change of probability distribution at Point G 57

5.3.2-5 Probability change of significant wave height and wave period 58

5.3.3-1 Time averaged mean significant wave height difference between

future and present period (Source: Mori et al., 2010)

59

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5.3.3-2 Spatial distribution of average ECHAM and GFDL mean

significant wave height in 1981-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100 and

its difference between 2081-2100 and 1981-2000

60

5.3.3-3 Spatial distribution of average ECHAM and GFDL mean wave

period in 1981-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100 and its difference

between 2081-2100 and 1981-2000

61

5.3.3-4 Spatial distribution of average ECHAM and GFDL mean wave

direction in 1981-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100 and its difference

between 2081-2100 and 1981-2000

62

6.1 Changes of future wave direction in north (Hon Ngu), central

(Station C1) and south (Station O) coast of Vietnam in year 2041-

2060 and 2081-2100

65

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LIST OF TABLES

TABLE PAGE

2.1 Relative importance of various wave model process in different

regions of the ocean: 1-Negligible; 2-Minor importance; 3-

Significant; 4-Dominant (Battjes, 1994 and Young, 1999)

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4.1 Types of data and sources 20

4.2.1 Summary of wave data 28

5.1-1 Summary of statistics performance of modeling result at Hon Dau,

Hon Ngu, Point B, E and K

31

5.2-1 Summary of depths and distances from shoreline at 14locations 37

5.3-1 Summary of depths and distances from shoreline at 14locations 47

5.3.1-1 Differences of average significant wave height, wave period and

wave direction between 2041 to 2060 and 1981 to 2000 and 2081

to 2100 and 1981 to 2000 at ten locations

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The coastline of Vietnam is 3,260 km long, extended through the territories of 24

provinces and cities, which include 127 rural and urban districts, 6 main cities and 21

towns. Coastal cities along Vietnam coast have been successively developed with different

activities. Da Nang is a major port city and the largest city of central Vietnam. Qui Nhon is

a fishing city which is shifted towards service industries and tourism. Nha Trang, located

in the south central coast, is well known for its beach, scuba diving and the world’s most

beautiful bay which is now a popular destination for international tourists. In addition, the

unique nature of Ha long bay in the north having 1,600 islands forms a spectacular

seascape of limestone pillars. Its outstanding scenic beauty is complemented by great

biological interest. Figure 1.1 shows main cities in Vietnam. The landforms of the coastal

zone of Vietnam are multiform and diverse. In many areas the landforms are strongly

dissected, giving the coast many beauty bays and spots. The coastal zone of Vietnam also

receives many natural calamities, causing multidirectional impacts on the nature and socio-

economic conditions. Coastal erosion occurs in a number of locations in the Vietnam

shoreline. Erosion occurs in most lithological types of coasts; gravel sand, clayey muds

with the highest rate in sandy coast which is more than ninety percent. It causes difficulties

for the life of populations. Medium to severe erosion rates occur in convex shapes of

shoreline facing strong wave action. The wave driven by wind is one of the main natural

factors that govern the coastal condition effect to activities, function of those cities and

significantly coastal erosion.

The wind patterns in Vietnam are influenced by two monsoon systems and their

transitions. Winds in northeast monsoon season are mostly northeasterly and easterly

direction, starting from November-February. Winds in the transition period are

southeasterly direction and stormily, starting from March-April and September-October.

Winds in southwest monsoon season are southerly and southwesterly directions, starting

from May-August. Occurrences of tropical storms and storm surges can generate such

wave forces acting on the coasts during northeast monsoon season and transition period

from October-December.

The northeast waves in South China Sea coming to Vietnam are more severe due to

stronger northeast winds and much longer fetch lengths. Under the effect of climate

change, offshore wave conditions in Vietnam can be affected by changes due to wind

systems and dramatically impacts from sea-level rise, whereas those subsidence and

erosion problems already exist. Furthermore, changing wind systems may have the effect

of altering the surface ocean wave energy and increasing threat to coastal sustainability.

Therefore, it is necessary to investigate changes in offshore wave climate in response to

climate change driven wind variations.

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Wave climate is an essential accessory for wave analysis i.e. hindcasting and forecasting. It

is a long-term statistical characterization of the behavior of waves in the sea and the ocean.

Numerical wave models have been used to assess potential changes to the wave climate,

currents and sedimentation transport, recently. They aim to provide efficient solutions to

complex problems in coastal environment and they are essential for predicting the

dynamics in coastal engineering works. Furthermore, they are increasingly being used as a

tool to transfer offshore wave information to nearshore location as well as to simulate the

hydrodynamic of various coastal characteristics and the governing physical processes such

as waves, currents and sediment transport.

MIKE21, a commonly used numerical wave model, has been developed by Danish

Hydraulic Institute (DHI), Denmark. Several models in MIKE21 are introduced to this

study. They can be used as a tool to assist in performing the numerous calculations

involved in defining wave climate, often applied to the studies of wave disturbances in

coastal areas and capable for simulating a wide range of hydrodynamic and related wave

phenomena.

1.2 Statement of the Problems

Variations of offshore wave climate in the Lower Gulf of Thailand, which is close to

Vietnam, were analyzed by Weerasinghe (2010) using numerical wave model, MIKE21

SW. The offshore wave climate in the far future represented that the mean of northeast

monsoon wave was slightly increased and wave direction was changed towards the East.

Therefore, this may result in changing of nearshore wave climate and associated wave-

induced current, wave-current induced sediment transport in this region.

Variability of future offshore wave climate and their plausible changes in response to

climate change in Vietnam will increase the severity of coastal problems. Wave is an

important factor governing coastal processes in the nearshore zone. Changing of wave

direction will alter the sediment transport in the surf zone and provide permanent shoreline

change to approach a new equilibrium platform. Sediment budget can be in unbalanced

condition due to changing of wave-induced sediment transport. The shoreline can be more

eroded and it can occur at the area where this problem has never been faced before.

Shifting of extreme conditions such as design waves will cause damage to coastal

protection, fishing ports and harbor structures. Therefore the study of changing of offshore

wave climate is basically important and required in order to obtain the future wave

condition and use for preparedness for its impact to coastal area in Vietnam.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The main objective of this study is to analyze present and future offshore wave climate

along the coast of Vietnam using a numerical wave model.

Specific objectives of this study are as follows:

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a) To simulate the present and future wave condition along the coast of Vietnam

using a third generation wave model (MIKE21 SW).

1) To examine the variation of the computed results of wave climate from

different sources of wind fields.

2) To determine temporal and spatial variability of future wave climate.

1.4 Scope of the Study

In order to achieve the objectives, the scope of study can be defined as follows:

1) Present and future nearshore and offshore wave climate are derived from

numerical wave model, MIKE21 Spectral Wave (SW) model.

2) Present wave climate is driven by analytical global wind field, National Centers

for Environment Prediction and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

(NCEP/CFSR).

3) Present and future wave climate are driven by Global Climate Models (GCMs)

derived wind with A2 scenario, ECHAM5 and GFDL CM2.1 downscaled from

Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM), developed by Commonwealth

Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO).

4) Future wave climate is defined for 2 durations which are 2041-2060 and 2081-

2100 while present wave climate is defined in the period from 1981 to 2000.

5) The location of wave computation will be in 10 locations along the coast of

Vietnam.

1.5 Limitations

There are limitations presented in this study:

1) The computational domain including wind field from CCAM is between 98° to

120° E and 2° S to 25° N. Swells generated from the sources outside this area

cannot be computed and included in the present study.

2) Analysis work will focus on the change of monthly, spatial and probabilistic

distribution of mean monthly significant wave height, wave period and wave

directions.

4

Figure 1.1 Main cites in Vietnam (Source: Wikipedia)

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CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

This chapter reviews the numerical wave models, which are a significant tool to use for

future wave computation. Past studies of climate change related to wave climate are also

reviewed. It shows study locations in the North Sea in northern Europe, Mediterranean

Sea, east coast of Australia, Thailand and global scale. The future wave climate variability

will experience both positive and negative trends at different regions. The last part consists

of reviewing climate change and coastal studies in Vietnam. It shows that most of the

research studies emphasize on hydro-meteorological change and sea level rise. There is no

research related to the change of wave climate along the coast of Vietnam.

2.1 Numerical Wind-Wave Models

Numerical wave models can be divided in two major categories as follows:

Deterministic (phase-resolving) models are based on an approximation of the fundamental

hydrodynamic equations and can be applied in shallow or intermediate water. Their basic

characteristic is the capability to translate the elevation time history from one point to

another point and provide a continuous high frequency description in space and time of the

evolution of the sea surface.

Spectral models (phase-averaged) provide a statistical description of the wave conditions

in space and time, typically at the nodes of a grid covering the area of interest. They

provide, point by point, the distribution of wave energy in frequency, direction and its

evolution in time. Spectral models are commonly divided into three generations as follows:

First generation is the early models, developed in the 1960s, which were designed to model

wave energy growth and dissipation. Their major limitation is that they do not account for

the nonlinear interactions between the different wave frequencies.

Second generation is the later generation of models using parameterized approximations to

model the nonlinear spectral interactions. Explicit calculation of these interactions is

computationally very expensive.

Third generation is developed in the late 1980s and provides a full description of the

physical processes governing wave evolution. This method requires fewer assumptions on

the nature of spectral evolution than the parameterized relationships used in the second

generation models. Third generation models generally share the following characteristics:

1) Ocean wave spectrum is free to develop without an a priori limit on the spectral

shape. The resulting spectrums are defined purely from the balance in the

source or sink terms.

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2) Nonlinear wave-wave interaction source term, Snl, is solved explicitly, and is

consistent with the same number of degrees of freedom as the discrete

representation of the spectrum.

3) Source or sink mechanisms are defined discretely in the frequency/direction

domain, and not formulated by parameterization.

2.1.1 Third Generation Spectral Wave Models

Spectral wave models are rapidly and recently developed based on the introduction of third

generation spectral wave models. There are several wave models that have been used

worldwide i.e., WAM, WAVEWATCH III, SWAN, MIKE21, TOMAWAC. They are

capable to be applied adequately anywhere with the appropriated bathymetries and wind

fields. The differences between these third generation wave models are normally found in

their source or sink term expressions.

Hasselmann and Hasselmann (1981) proposed a third generation model, EXACT-NL,

describing an explicit method for calculating the mean exchange of energy between wave

components within a spectrum. This model is based on the six-dimensional integral

expression proposed by Hasselmann (1962) and includes a representation of the dissipation

source term, incorporating assumptions of energy dissipation through whitecap breaking

by Hasselmann (1974). Hasselmann et al. (1985) introduced the Discrete Interaction

Approximation (DIA) method to compute the nonlinear transfer in a surface wave

spectrum in an attempt to reduce the overall computational time needed to solve the

spectral energy balance. DIA relaxes most of the constraints on spectral shape in

simulating wave growth in the parameterization of the nonlinear wave-wave interaction

source terms. The success of DIA is documented in Komen et al. (1994).

The Wave Modeling group (WAMDI group 1988) was formed with the goal of developing

the third generation model that could be implemented operationally on global as well as

regional scales, replacing the existing second generation models implemented

operationally. The group utilized the success of Komen et al., 1994 and developed the

WAve Modeling (WAM) model. The success of WAM can be greatly attributed to the

DIA algorithm for its ability to approximate nonlinear wave-wave interaction, Snl, with very

low computational cost. The DIA algorithm has allowed independent development of other

third generation models. Tolman and Chalikov (1996) present new formulations for source

terms. Sin source term is based on Chalikov and Belevich (1993) and Snl is based on DIA of

Hasselmann et al. (1985). Sds is divided into two constituents, a low and a high-frequency

source term.

Ris (1997) and Booij et al. (1999) implemented the third generation model, Simulating

WAves Nearshore (SWAN), for shallow waters and fetch limited areas. SWAN computes

the evolution of wind waves in coastal regions using the wave action balance equation.

This model shares the basic scientific philosophy with WAM of incorporating the

formulations for deep water processes of wave generation, dissipation and the quadruplet

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wave-wave interactions. Although it was designed for coastal regions, SWAN can also be

used on global and regional scales since it is an extension of WAM.

2.1.2 Wave Model Processes and Scales

Generally, the spectral wave models include these following processes:

1) Wave generation by wind input

2) Nonlinear interaction

3) White capping (wave breaking in deep water)

4) Bottom friction

5) Depth-induced wave breaking (wave breaking in shallow water)

6) Refraction and shoaling

Wave generation processes depend on wind speed, fetch and duration developed.

Nonlinearity is defined theoretically (quadruplet and triad wave interactions) and different

wave components of directional and frequency spectrum play an important role for the

nonlinear evolution. The white capping process depends on the wave action spectrum. The

processes of bottom friction, depth-induced wave breaking, refraction and shoaling depend

on the depth of water and characteristics of bottom materials or median grain size. The

relative importance of these processes was proposed by Battjes 1994 and Young 1999, as

shown in Table 2.1.

Wind-wave processes can be separated into three scales; generation, transformation and

local scale, shown in Figure 2.1. Wave generation typically occurs in relatively deep water

and across the continental shelf. The dominant processes for wave generation are

atmospheric or wind input, nonlinear wave-wave interactions, and energy dissipation due

to white-capping. In intermediate to shallow water depths, wave transformation processes

become dominant. These processes include wave shoaling, refraction, and breaking. In

shallow depths and near coastal structures, local-scale process of diffraction, reflection,

and wave nonlinearities govern. Although there is overlap in the wave processes between

scales, numerical modeling approaches naturally fit into these three scales.

Table 2.1 Relative importance of various wave model process in different regions of the

ocean: 1-Negligible; 2-Minor importance; 3-Significant; 4-Dominant (Battjes, 1994 and

Young, 1999)

Process Deep Ocean Shelf Seas Shoaling

Zone Harbors

Atmospheric input 4 4 2 1

White capping 4 4 2 1

Quadruplet wave interaction 4 4 2 1

Triad wave interaction 1 2 3 2

Current refraction 1 2 3 1

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Bottom friction 1 4 2 1

Depth-induced breaking 1 2 4 1

Refraction and shoaling 1 3 4 3

Diffraction 1 1 2 4

Figure 2.1 Scales of wave processes

(Source: ERDC/CHL CHETN-I-64, US Army Corps of Engineers)

The wave transformation processes of refraction, shoaling, breaking, and wind input

dominate in intermediate water depths (depth less than approximately 15 to 60 m), which

is within a few kilometer to almost a hundred of kilometer from the coast. Wave heights

may increase or decrease in shallower depths due to wave refraction and shoaling and

wave directions refract to become more shore normal (wave crests parallel to shore). In

very shallow depths, waves break where the wave height is of the same order as the water

depth. To represent the bathymetry features that cause refraction, shoaling, and breaking,

the transformation-scale grid resolution is of the order of 30 to 300 m. An accurate

nearshore bathymetry is required. The input to calculate wave transformation is the output

from a wave generation model or field wave measurements.

2.1.3 Modeling Spectral Wind-Wave with MIKE21 SW Model

MIKE21 SW is a third generation spectral wind-wave model developed by the DHI water

and Environment. The model simulates the growth, decay and transformation of wind

generated waves and swells in offshore and coastal waters. MIKE 21 SW includes two

different modes: the fully spectral formulation and the directional decoupled parametric

formulation.

Jose et al. (2007) employed the MIKE21 spectral wave model to estimate the wave

conditions at the ship shoal in the south-central Louisiana. The high resolution scale was

implemented to estimate wave attenuation over the shoal and to get a more detailed

description of the spectrum when stormy conditions occurred in the eastern ship shoal area.

The results revealed that the MIKE21 SW model has electively represented the wave

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attenuation by wave transformation from offshore to the coast in stormy seasons such as

cold fronts and hurricanes.

Moeini and Shahidi (2007) examined the different wind formulations between the two

numerical wave models MIKE21 SW and SWAN. Wind forcing was used as varying in

time and constant in domain in Lake Erie. The results showed the inconsistency between

the two models and found it to be due to differences between the wind input

parameterizations. Komen’s formulation in SWAN model led to more accurate prediction

of significant wave height than Janssen’s formulation in MIKE21 SW model.

Strauss et al. (2007) compared the performance of the numerical wave models, SWAN and

MIKE21 SW in the Gold Coast, Australia. Directional decouple parametric formulation

had been used in model formulation of MIKE21 SW. Comparison between MIKE21 SW

and SWAN indicated that MIKE21 SW has less sensitivity to wind fluctuations. Both

models overestimated the significant wave height at the coastline for swell waves. Wave

period showed slight differences.

2.2 Changing of Wave Climate from Climate Variability

The ‘wave climate’ is the long-term direction, frequency, energy and extremes of ocean

waves. Waves provide most of the energy that shapes the shoreline and potentially drives

coastal erosion. Impacts of changing waves in the coastal zone are:

1) Coastal inundation during severe storm events. It can be severe when combined

effects of sea-level rise, high ocean waves and storm surge.

2) Changes of the wave direction may alter the sand and sediments regimes

resulting in coastal erosion and changes of shoreline.

3) Affection of sub-tidal habitats due to seabed disturbance.

Climate change may change mean wave climates (wave height, wave period, wave

direction etc.) in many regions, in line with projected mean wind speed. Subsequently,

dynamic regional analysis is required to estimate possible changes in wave climate and

develop methods to assess the susceptibility of future wave climate scenarios.

Grabemann and Weisse (2008) analyzed the present mean and extreme wave conditions in

the North Sea in northern Europe to investigate the possible future changes due to

anthropogenic climate change. A 30 years period, from 2071 to 2100, from two global

circulation models with two forcing scenarios wind field, were simulated using wave

model WAM to realizations of future changes of waves. HadAM3H and

ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCMs were considered with A2 and B2 scenarios by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The

effects of the climate changes on the ocean waves were evaluated by analyzing four

CGM/emission scenario combinations and those in two control simulations representing

baseline wave climate conditions for the 30-year period 1961–1990. HadAM3H-driven

simulation has shown higher response than the ECHAM4/OPYC3-forced experiments.

Moreover, extreme wave heights were projected to increase in large parts in the southern

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and eastern North Sea by about 0.25 to 0.35 m (5–8% of present values) towards the end of

the twenty first century due to global warming. All combinations also show an increase in

future frequency of severe sea state.

Figure 2.2 Layout of the forcing and output data sets: combinations of control (C) and

emission scenarios (A refers to A2; B refers to B2) and GCMs (H denotes HadAM3H; E

denotes ECHAM4/OPYC3) used as driving data for the regional climate model (R,

RCAO), and six WAM (W) output data sets named with respect to the six driving data sets

derived from the RCAO model (Grabemann, 2008).

Lionello (2008) studied the 30-year (2071-2100) simulation of the wave in the

Mediterranean Sea with the WAM model. A2, B2 emission scenarios were considered and

present climate period was considered from 1961 to 1990. Wind field was obtained from

regional climate model RegCM driven by the HadAM3H model with 50 km resolution.

The results showed that the mean significant wave height in large fraction of the

Mediterranean Sea was lower for the A2 scenario than the present climate during winter,

spring and autumn. Moreover, extreme significant wave height has shown smaller values

in the projected period than in the present period. In general, it has been showed that

changes of significant wave height, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are very small

in middle extreme events in future scenarios than in the present climate.

Mori et al. (2009) analyzed and predicted the future ocean wave climate in comparison

with those in present climate based on the climate model output. The research was

conducted on the basis of the climate model at Metrological Research Institute of Japan

Metrological Agency (JMA-MRI; Kakushin, 2008). The JMA-MRI climate model is the

atmospheric T959L60 single model with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from coarse grid

coupled run of atmosphere and ocean simulation, and was computed for the three periods

of 1979-2004 (present), 2015-2028 (near future) and 2075-2100 (future) following A1B

scenario. The waves of the three periods were simulated using sea surface winds (U10) of

climate model by the SWAN model. The simulated U10 and wave height were analyzed to

predict wind and wave climate change from present to future in global and regional area.

Results showed that the mean waves will be increased at both the middle latitudes and also

in the Antarctic Ocean and decreased on the equator. The sea off the coast of Japan belongs

11

to the slightly decreased region where the mean winds and waves are decreased 5–10%

from those in the present climate. On the other hand, the extreme waves due to tropical

cyclones will be increased. These results show that the future wave climate changes to

lower mean and higher maximum wave heights in the middle latitudes, and higher mean

and maximum wave heights in the high latitudes. It expressed that the future wave climate

will experience both negative and positive change depending on the region.

Lowe et al. (2009) projected the future wave climate around the UK and the global climate

model HadCM3 provided winds for the Atlantic wave model and the regional climate

model has provided winds for the regional wave model. The PROWAM model (Monbaliu

et al. 2000), which is a modified version of the WAM cycle-4 third generation wave model

(Komen et al. 1994) was used to force the wave and that model was developed to run at

higher spatial resolution than the standard WAM model and also includes some extra

shallow-water processes. 12km nested grid was implemented in shallow water over the

North West European continental shelf. Boundary condition was obtained simulating the

large domain area; whole Atlantic, with grids of 1° × 1° degree. The wave models were run

for the periods 1960–1990 and 2070–2100 to represent present and future periods

respectively. The results revealed the projected mean and extreme wave height is changed

with location and projected mean values laid between –35 and +5 cm whereas the wave

period is changed with a very smaller value with maximum ± 1 s.

Hemer et al. (2010) developed an ensemble of wave model to future projections of wave

climate for the east coast of Australia. The study used three different GCMs (CSIRO

Mk3.5, GFDL CM2.0 and GFDL CM2.1 under A2 emission scenarios), and surface wind

forcing was obtained from GCM simulations that had been downscaled by Cubic

Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

Research Organization (CSIRO) over the Australian region at approximately 60 km

resolution. Future wave climate simulations were carried out using three bias correction

methods for those three CCAM downscaled GCMs under the A2 and B1 emission scenario

for 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 period. The period of 1981-2000 was selected as the

baseline reference for the simulation of wave models. The bias adjustment of CCAM-

derived wind field was corrected biases in the mean and the variability of winds by

adjusting the joint probability distribution of both u and v wind component (JPD-UV) for

the first 20-year time slice for both CCAM and NRA-2-derived winds (observed winds).

The CCAM JPD-UV was then implemented for bivariate quantile-mapping on NRA-2

JPD-UV at each grid cell. The CCAM winds were used to force a coarse resolution of 0.5°

with the WaveWatch III (WW3) wave model for Australian region between the

coordinates of 90-240°E and 65-0°S, with a 0.1° nested fine resolution application of the

SWAN spectral wave model along the eastern Australian coast (150-155°E, 38-25°S).

Buoy wave data from six locations (at approximate 100 m depth) along a 1000 km stretch

of the coastline was used to validate the model for present conditions. The results showed

that the ensemble of wave model runs for the 2081-2100 time slice, presented a decrease in

mean significant wave height, Hs, along the east Australian coast relative to present climate

conditions. The magnitude of the projected change was relatively small, which is less than

12

0.2 m, and increased northwards along the north south Wales coast. A relatively small

(~5°) anticlockwise rotation in mean wave direction was projected to occur over the same

period.

Koontanakulwong and Chaowiwat (2010) studied the climate change impact assessment

and adaptation measures based on past observed data and future projected GCM data.

Present and future projection of hydrological conditions (precipitation and temperature)

had been conducted for the period of 1979-2006, 2015-2039 and 2075-2099, respectively.

GCM data had been bias-corrected using two statistical downscaling methods, SD Ratio

and modified rescaled downscaling methods, by verifying with past observed data. The

bias correction methods were applied to correct the bias from MRI GCM and verified the

performance respect to Thailand. The both bias correction method can reduce the bias of

MRI GCM, the coefficient of determination and RMSE are in acceptable range and keep

the changing trend of the original GCM data for both precipitation and temperature.

Weerasinghe (2010) determined the variation of offshore wave climate in the Gulf of

Thailand, particularly at Songkhla tidal inlet using the third generation spectral wind-wave

model, MIKE21 SW. Simulation domain on flexible mesh covered from 98-120°E in

longitude and 2-25°N in latitude with coarse resolution of less than 0.5° and nested to the

Songkhla coastlines with finer resolution of 0.1°. NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 and

downscaled CCAM wind data (ECHAM5 and GFDL CM2.1) were used as wind forcing

on the models in three time slices, baseline period of 1981-2000, projection period of

2041-2060 and 2081-2100. Analysis of variation changes in wind climate represented

considerable slightly changes in mean wind speed and direction. The model calibration

performed as a calibration period and was restricted by unavailability of observed buoy

wave data in some locations. The model results showed that the mean of northeast

monsoon wave had slightly increased and the mean wave direction had changed towards

the east.

2.3 Coastal Study and Climate Change in Vietnam

Pruszak et al (2002) carried out a numerical model study for sediment transport in the red

river delta. The impacts to destructive shoreline change which varied substantial and

dynamic changes from sediment supply sources from rivers and the sea i.e. typhoon, sea

level change, current, were taken into account. Assessment of sub-region sediment budget

computed wave height from offshore area. Morphodynamic processes can also be

determined. It showed a current deficit of sediment by 1,500,000 m3/year . It caused

erosion of the sediment from land and nearshore zone in the adjacent area. The erosion was

computed and found to be continuing but its rate would be decreasing in the future.

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, MONRE (2008) showed an increase of

sea level at Hon Dau station 20 cm for 50 years from 1960 to 2009. The rate is 3 mm /year

during 1993 to 2008.

13

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, MONRE (2009) studied the climate

change and sea level rise in Vietnam. The condition of temperature would rise 2.3 relative

to those in 1980 to 1999. The sea level would increase 30 and 75 cm by the mid and end of

21st century compared to those in the 1980 to 1999 for scenario B2. Results of scenario B1

and A1F for low and high emission were conducted with their variation around these

values. There are high uncertainties and the tolerance for climate change scenario was

recommended. The result is required to be regularly updated in 2010 and 2015. In addition,

the analysis of long recorded data showed that there would be more typhoons with high

intensity. Typhoon track moved to southward direction and its season would be ended

earlier. There would be more typhoons with abnormal movement. Other hydrological and

meteorological analyses for climate variation were conducted as well. On average, annual

rainfall would increase 5%. The northern climate area would have more increasing rainfall

than the south.

The effect of sea level rise will increase risk of coastal flooding. Duc et al (2012) studied

and analyzed the coastal erosion in the red river delta, Vietnam. The return period of storm

surge would be substantially reduced. The present 20 years return period of 2.6 m height

storm surge will be 9 and 4.5 year in 2050 and 2100. It means that the percentage of

occurrence will be increased from 5 percent to 11 and 22 percent, approximately. The risk

of flooding increased from possible 1 event in 20 years to 2 and 4 events in the similar

period.

From the results of literature survey, it is shown that most studies of climate change have

been carried out for hydrological and metrological topics. The study of coastal issue was

only sea level rise. Therefore the present study seems to be important as a pioneer work to

indicate the variability of wave climate in the future along Vietnam coast. The output for

offshore wave climate from the present study can be extended further to determine

variability of future sediment transport, extreme wave for improvement of design wave of

coastal structures for coastal protection. Besides, the sediment budget in a regional scale

can be revisited similarly to the work from Pruszik et al (2002) so that the pattern and

locations of erosion/accretion can be variable for its magnitude and severity.

14

CHAPTER 3

THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS

3.1 Spectral Wind-Wave Model

Regional wave models were implemented to use the MIKE21 SW model in order to derive

present and future offshore wave climate along Vietnam coast. The model can simulate

wave propagation in offshore area, including the effect of wave growth by the action of

wind, non-linear wave-wave interaction, dissipation by white-capping, dissipation by wave

breaking, dissipation due to bottom friction, refraction due to depth variations and wave-

current interaction. The full spectral formulation MIKE21 SW was applied in order to

formulate the wind-wave generation processes on the regional wave model, which takes

high computation cost, but gives more accurate wave climate parameters. Regional wave

model is forced by the analytical global wind field NCEP/CFSR in the present period

1981-2000 and the downscaled GCM wind fields, ECHAM5 and GFDL CM2.1 on the

ensemble runs in present period 1981-2000 and projection period 2041-2060 and 2081-

2100, over the entire domain. All wind forcing were created on Grid (.dfs2) varying in time

and domain on MIKE Zero.

3.1.1 Governing Equations and Formulations

Wind waves are expressed by the wave action density spectrum, ,N , where σ is the

relative angular frequency and θ is the direction of wave propagation. The relative angular

frequency can be related to the absolute angular frequency (ω) by linear dispersion

relationship as

tanhgk kd k U

(3.1)

where g is the acceleration of gravity, k is the wave number, d is the water depth, k is the

wave number vector with magnitude k and direction, θ and U is the current velocity

vector. The action density, ,N , can be related to the energy density, ,E , by

EN

(3.2)

There are two formulations in the model: (1) fully spectral formulation and (2) directional

decouple parametric formulation.

15

Fully spectral formulation is based on the wave action conservation equation in Komen et

al. (1994) and Young (1999), where directional-frequency wave action spectrum is the

dependent variable. The wave action conservation equations are formulated in either

Cartesian coordinates for small-scale applications or polar spherical coordinates for large

scale applications. The spectral energy balance in Cartesian co-ordinates can be expressed

by

, ; , , , ; , ,, ; , , , ; , ,gx gyC N x y t C N x y tN x y t S x y t

t x y

(3.3)

where , , , ,N x y t is the evolution of the action density, Cgx and Cgy are the

components in the x- and y-direction, respectively, of the group velocitiy, x and y are the

Cartesian co-ordinates, θ is direction of wave propagation. The terms, S is the source or

sink functions based on the action spectrum.

Decouple parametric formulation is based on wave action conservation equation in the

numerical solution extensions proposed by Holthuijsen et. al., (1989). Parameterization of

frequency is performed by introducing the zeroth, m0 and first moment, m1 of the wave

action spectrum as dependent variables. The source terms derived from the conservation

equations are as follow:

0 0 0

0

1 1 1

1

gx gy

gx gy

C m C m C mT

x y

C m C m C mT

x y

(3.4)

where m0(x,y,θ) and m1(x,y,θ) are the zeroth and first moment of action spectrum,

respectively. Cθ is the propagation speed in θ-direction. T0 and T1 are the source terms. The

propagation speeds, Cgx, Cgy and Cθ are derived based on linear wave theory. The function

on the left hand side takes into account the processes of refraction and shoaling. The source

terms on the right hand side take into account the effect of wind driven wave, dissipation

due to bottom friction, depth-induced breaking and wave-current interaction.

3.1.2 Source Term Functions

The energy source/sink term, S, described in the right-hand side of Eq. (3.3) represents

physical processes in which waves generate, dissipate or redistribute wave energy. The

source function term is given by

in nl ds bot surfS S S S S S

(3.5)

16

where Sin represents the momentum transfer of wind energy to wave generation, Snl is the

energy transfer due to nonlinear wave-wave interaction, Sds is the dissipation of wave

energy due to white capping (wave breaking in deep water), Sbot is the dissipation due to

bottom friction and Ssurf is the dissipation of wave energy due to depth-induced breaking

(wave breaking in shallow water).

3.1.2.1 Generation by wind, Sin

The basis of all formulation in this source term of the third generation models is described

by linear wave growth mechanisms. Numerical wind growth in MIKE 21 SW is described

by Eq. (3.6) based on Janssen (1989), Janssen et al. (1989) and Janssen (1991), where γ is

the wind growth rate.

, ,inS f E f

(3.6)

Wind growth formulation in MIKE 21 SW is similar to that of WAM, the growth rate due

to wind input and can be expressed as

2

4 *

2

1.2ln cos 1

0 1

aw

w

uz

c

(3.7)

where κ is Von Karman’s constant equals to 0.41, the dimensionless critical height,

0 exp /kz x , /a w is the ratio of density of air to water, *u is the wind friction

velocity, c is the phase speed, θ and θw are the wave and wind directions, respectively and

0z is the sea roughness. The sea roughness in coupled model is given by

1/21/2 2

0 21 1w charnock w

ob ow ob

air

z uz z z z

g u

(3.8)

where zob, zow are the effect of gravity-capillary waves and short gravity waves, zCharnock is

the Charnock parameter. τw is wave-induced stress, τ is the total stress.

3.1.2.2 Non-linear wave-wave interaction, Snl

Non-linear wave-wave interaction is the mechanism that affects wave growth, where

energy is transferred between waves from one component to another through resonance.

Energy is either gain or loss in this mechanism and only redistributed over spectrum. The

parameterization of Snl is required in order that the Discrete Interaction Approximation

17

(DIA), developed by S. Hasselmann et al. (1985) is used. S. Hasselmann et al. (1985)

constructed a non-linear interaction operator by the superposition of a small number of

discrete interaction configurations composed of neighbouring and finite distance

interaction combinations as described in Komen et al., 1994. The configurations are:

1 2 ,

3 1 ,

(3.9)

4 1

In deep water and intermediate areas, non-linear wave-wave interactions allow energy

transfers from the spectral peak to lower frequencies. While, shallow water transfers the

energy from lower frequencies to higher frequencies. In terms of the spectral energy

densities, ,E f , the increments to the sources functions, , /nl rS f E t at the

three interacting wave numbers are given as:

2

1 , , ,

1

nl

nl

nl

f

fS

fS f E E E

fS

f

f

(3.10)

3.1.2.3 White capping, Sds

The source function of the dissipation due to white-capping is based on the theory of

Hasselmann (1974), assuming the linear in the spectral density and the frequency and

obtained a dissipation function. Komen et al. (1984) later combined the processes of the

extent of whitecap coverage in the dissipation function and reformulated by the WAMDI

group (1988) in terms of wave number so to be applicable in finite water depth. With the

description of wind input of the Janssen et al. (1988), a proper balance between wind input

and dissipation at high frequencies was modified by Komen et al. (1994) and can be

expressed as

2

ˆ, 1 ,

ˆ

m

ds ds

PM

k kS f C E f

k k

(3.11)

18

where Cds, δ and m are constants, is the mean relative angular frequency, k is the wave

number, k is the mean wave number, ̂ is the overall steepness of wave field and ˆPM is

the integrated steepness of a fully developed Pierson-Moskowitz spectrum. MIKE 21 SW

allows white-capping dissipation formulation of WAM cycle 3 and WAM cycle 4 with

different values of Cds, and δ are 4.5 and 0.5, respectively.

3.1.2.4 Bottom friction, Sbot

As waves propagate into shallow water and feel the bottom, the source function of wave-

bottom interaction becomes important. The rate of energy dissipation due to bottom

friction is given by

, / ,sinh 2

bot f c

kS f C f u k k E f

kd

(3.12)

where Cf is the friction coefficient, k is the wave number, k is the mean wave number, d is

the water depth, fc is the friction coefficient for the current and u is the current velocity.

Bottom friction factor used in modeling can be specified as the friction coefficient (Cfw),

friction factor (fw), Nikuradse roughness parameter (ks) or sand grain size (D50).

3.1.2.5 Wave breaking, Ssurf

Depth-induced breaking occurs when waves propagate into shallow water areas and the

wave height can no longer be supported by the water depth. The formulation of wave

breaking in the model is based on the bore model of Battjes and Janssen (1978) and

Eldeberky and Battjes (1996). Gamma breaking parameter can be specified in the breaking

formulation. The source function can be written as

2

, ,BJ bsurf

Q fS f E f

X

(3.13)

where αBJ is the calibration constant, approximately equals to 1.0, Qb is the fraction of

wave breaking waves, f is the mean frequency and X is the ratio of the total energy in the

random wave train to the energy in a wave train with the maximum possible wave height.

The fraction of breaking waves, Qb can be determined from

19

2

max

1

ln

b rms

b

Q HX

Q H

(3.14)

2

max

1exp

/

b

b

rms

QQ

H H

(3.15)

21 2 exp 1/ 0.5

1 2.04 1 0.44 ; 1 ; 0.5

1 1

b

x x x

Q z z z x x

x

(3.16)

3.2 Energy Transfer

The nonlinear energy transfer among the wave field in the present study becomes

important for evolution of wave field in deep water and coastal areas. A quadruplet-wave

interaction, which is described by the accepted approximate Discrete Interaction

Approximate (DIA) (Komen et al. (1994), was applied on regional wave model. The

quadruplet-wave interaction controls: (1) the shape-stabilization of the high-frequency part

of the spectrum, (2) the downshift of energy to lower frequencies and (3) frequency-

dependent redistribution of directional distribution functions. A triad-wave interaction was

applied on the nearshore wave model.

3.3 Initial and Boundary Conditions

The initial conditions on regional wave model were applied by calculating the spectra from

empirical formulations from JONSWAP fetch growth expression and closed boundary at

offshore boundary. Various parameters such as maximum fetch length, maximum peak

frequency and maximum Philip’s constant, and etc. were defined. The land boundary is

specified along Vietnam while open boundary is used in the offshore area.

3.4 Model Outputs

The basic outputs from the simulations are integral wave parameters and spectral

parameters. The important integral parameters used in the present study are significant

wave height (Hm0), maximum wave height (Hmax), peak wave period (Tp), mean wave

period (Tm01), zero-crossing wave period (Tm02), peak wave direction (θp) and mean wave

direction (θm).

20

CHAPTER 4

METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION

4.1 Methodology

The Vietnam coast is connected with an open ocean to the South China Sea. Waves in this

region are not only limited on locally wind-generated waves. MIKE21 SW model is used

to derive present and future offshore wave with bathymetry input from GEBCO. The

model is forced by an analytical global wind field NCEP/CFSR in the present period

starting from 1981-2011 and the downscaled GCM derived winds, ECHAM5 and GFDL

CM2.1 in the present period started from 1981-2000 and projection period from 2041-2060

and 2081-2100 on numerical simulations. All required input data were prepared for

numerical simulations and the measured wave data were used for comparison purposes as

described in Section 4.3. Model setup for regional and nearshore wave models are briefly

described in section 4.4. Figure 4.1 shows a flow chart of the research framework. Figure

4.2 shows concept of modeling study.

4.2 Data Collection

There are several types of required data e.g., bathymetry, shoreline, wind field and wave

data. All of them are secondary data obtained from different sources. They are divided

based on their applications for ease of understanding and simplicity; input data and

observational data. The input data was obtained for the proposed numerical wave model

simulations. The observational data was obtained for model purposes. Summary of the

overall collected data and their sources are shown in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Types of data and sources

Data Types Sources Descriptions

Bathymetry GEBCO 30-arc-seconded grid

Shoreline NGDC, NOAA GSHHS Version 2.2 High resolution: 200-m

Wind field NOAA

NCEP/CFSR

6-hourly, 1981-2000

0.5º×0.5º, u and v wind components (m/s)

Wind field CCAM, CSIRO

ECHAM 5 & GFDL CM2.1 with A2 scenario

6-houtly, 1981-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100

0.5º×0.5º, u and v wind components (m/s)

Wave Data ERA-40 6-hourly, 1981-

Ship observation 6 hourly, longest record is 1993-2002

21

Figure 4.1 Research framework of this present study

Observational data

- Wave data

Research study

State problems and

objectives Research design

Data collection

Regional wave model

MIKE21 SW

Conclusion and

recommendations

Literature review

Input data

- Bathymetry

- Shoreline

- Wind fields

Model calibration and

validation

Analysis of present and future

offshore wave climate

22

Figure 4.2 Conceptual of modeling study

Bathymetry model

98°-120°E, 2°S-25°N

Input Wind forcing

Data

1) NCEP/CFSR:

1981-2000

2) ECHAM5 &

GFDL CM2.1:

1981-2000,

2041-2060 and

2081-2100

Regional wave model

Outputs wave

parameters

Hm0, Tm0, θm,

23

4.2.1 Input Data

The numerical simulations in this study required three types of input data: (1) bathymetry,

(2) shoreline, (3) wind field and (4) wave data.

Bathymetry data

Bathymetry data was obtained from the Generic Bathymetric Charts of the Oceans

(GEBCO), the latest released version of the GEBCO_08 Grid (20100927), the grid data

sets with the spatial resolution of 30 arc-second. The grid data sets are used to provide the

possible topography in the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea including Vietnam

coast, represented in terms of geographical points, longitude, latitude and depth (xyz).

The bathymetry data was downloaded from General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans

(GEBCO) with one arc minute grid resolution. Figure 4.3 shows the bathymetric map of

computational domain between 98°-120° E and 2°S-25°N.

The shorelines were digitalized using MIKE zero mesh generator’s tools to use as

boundary lines in unstructured mesh generation. Afterward gridded bathymetry data was

imported as scatter data for depth interpolation to every mesh point in the unstructured

mesh.

Shoreline data

Shoreline data was obtained from the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the latest released version 2.2.0 of a

Global Self-consistent, Hierarchical, High-resolution and Shoreline (GSHHS) data.

GSHHS is shoreline and enclosed basin data that comes at a variety of resolutions, low

resolution data of 5 km, adequately. There is also intermediate resolution 1 km and high

resolution data of 0.2 km available. It was maintained in the forms of closed polygons and

extracted by using the ArcGIS software. Its main use here was in specifying shoreline

boundary onto the computational domain for the regional wave model.

Wind data

Recently, the developed ECHAM5 (European Centre for Medium Range Weather

Forecasts, ECMWF and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and GFDL CM 2.1

(Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA) downscaled by CSIRO’s CCAM was

selected for the current study. Its high resolution, vintage and validity of wave climate

projection (Hemer et al. 2010) were also considered in the selection criteria.

Representation of the wave model forced plausible future scenarios of greenhouse gas

emissions, A2 from IPPC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were selected as

the forcing scenario.

24

- ECHAM5 model

ECHAM5 is the fifth-generation atmospheric general circulation model developed

at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM). It uses 1.875° lon x 1.875° lat (T63)

horizontal resolution with 31 layers in atmosphere and 1.5° lon x 1.5° lat resolution with

40 layers in oceanic model. The model integrate advective and time-stepping schemes,

vertical coordinate and number of layers above 200 hPa and below 850 hPa. Climate

change experiments forced with observed atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol

concentrations since the middle of the 19th century. The model simulations explain a mean

global warming between 2.5 and 4.1 degrees Celsius towards the end of this century -

dependent on how much greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere.

Figure 4.3 Bathymetric map of the computational domain

- GFDL CM 2.1 model

The GFDL CM 2.1 climate model is based on a prior model version (GFDL CM

2.0) and significant changes were made to all parts of the model (atmosphere, land surface,

25

ocean, and sea ice) with a view to reducing errors and climate drift in the CM 2.0 model.

The model is describing in the IPCC 4th assessment report and it consists of approximately

2.5° longitude and 2.0° latitude spacing equivalent to number of horizontal grids 144 x 90.

However, the exact horizontal grid locations are not the same in the two models. The

model has 24 vertical levels with ocean and sea ice model components have 200 x 360

numbers of horizontal grids.

- CCAM regional climate model

The CCAM has been developed at CSIRO over resent year with grid conformal-

cubic grids that was appealing because of its quasi-uniformity, orthogonality and isotropy.

CCAM process another significant feature is the reversible staggering procedure for the

winds (McGregor, 2005b) possible because of the cyclic nature of the grid. All variables

are located at the centres of grid cells. During semi-implicit calculations u and v are

transformed to the indicated centered grid locations as shown in Figure 4.4.

Figure 4.4 CCAM and representation of wind components (McGregor, 2005)

The monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) biases have been corrected in GFDL CM 2.1

GCM to first order and then the atmosphere has re-run for consistency with the new SSTs.

Consequently, those data sets have been downscaled by CCAM to get the 0.5 degree

resolution range of ensemble members. In the present study, the six hourly wind speeds (u

and v components) at 10m elevation from ground were obtained from CSIRO’s CCAM.

Wind data was extracted for three 20 year periods of 1981-2000, 2041-2060 and 2081-

2100 used for the analysis of base line period climate and future climate scenarios. Here,

1981-2000 was considered as a base line period and other two periods were considered for

future periods.

- NCEP/CFSR analytical global wind field

An analytical global wind field, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

(NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) obtained from National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was used as wind forcing on numerical simulations

26

and for model calibration and validation purposes. NCEP/CFSR was a combination of the

atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land, and satellite data executed in a coupled mode with

modern assimilation system. NCEP/CFSR provides spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° with

six-hourly data 0600, 1200, 1800, 0000 for the present period of 1981-2000 (20 years). It

was maintained in the forms of geographical coordinates and u- and v-wind components, at

10 m height.

Wave data

Wave data used for calibration and comparison are obtained from 2 sources, which are

ERA-40 and Ship Observation.

- ERA-40 wave data

ERA-40 is the European Center for Medium-Range Weather forecasts (ECMWF)

re-analysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions for 45-years, over the period

from September 1957 to August 2002 by ECMWF. Many sources of the meteorological

observations were used, including radiosondes, balloons, aircraft, buoys, satellites,

scatterometers. This data was run through the ECMWF computer model at a 40 km

resolution. As the ECMWF's computer model is one of the most highly-regarded in the

field of forecasting, many scientists take its reanalysis to have similar merit. The data is

stored in GRIB format. The reanalysis was done in an effort to improve the accuracy of

historical weather maps and aid in a more detailed analysis of various weather systems

through a period that was severely lacking in computerized data. With the data from

reanalysis such as this, many of the more modern computerized tools for analyzing storm

systems can be utilized, at least in part, because of this access to a computerized simulation

of the atmospheric state.

Model of 2-D wave spectra use 10 m height wind speed. There are 12 directions of wave

spectrum with 25 frequencies. Computed wave data are 2.5 for interval distance and

available at every 6 hours i.e. 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC each day. Period of wave

data is from 1981 to 2002. The present study shows location of wave data near Vietnam

coast in Figure 4.5. There are totally 22 locations starting from A, B, C, E,.., S, T, U to V.

- Ship Observation

Ship observed wave data are obtained from communication with Dr. Roshanka

Ranasinghe. There are 6 locations showed in Figure 4.5. Most of stations are in the north

Vietnam. The longest measured duration for the 3 locations, Hon Dau, Bach Long Vy and

Hon Ngu are from 1993 to 2002. Station Phu Quy which is the most southward direction

has short period of recorded wave from June 2006 to July 2007. Other three stations have

only summary of statistic wave. Table 4.2.1 shows summary of wave data. These wave

data will be used to compare and calibrate with computed wave data from model MIKE21

SW.

27

Figure 4.5 Locations of ERA-40 and ship observation

28

Table 4.2.1 Summary of wave data

Wave Data Station Period

1. ERA-40 A, B, C, E, G, L, K, O 6 hours interval 1981-2002 (22 years)

(selected 8 stations)

2. Ship Observation Hon Dau 1993-2002

Bach Long Vy 1993-2002

Hon Ngu 1993-2002

Con Co Statistic data only for monthly / flood

season and annual during 1980-1996

Quang Ngai Statistic data only for monthly 1966-1980

Phu Quy June 2006 - July 2007

(Hon Dau and Hon Ngu

are two selected

stations)

All data is 6 hour interval

29

CHAPTER 5

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

5.1 Model Calibration

There are six stations of ship observed wave data but some stations have only wave

statistics and some do not have a long record. Therefore two stations at Hon Dau and Hon

Ngu are selected as measured wave data for model calibration and comparison. Data from

ERA-40 wave at Point B, E and K are selected and used for model calibration as shown in

Figure 5.1-1. Input wind data is from NCEP/CFSR. Measured wave characteristics from

ship observation are significant wave height and wave direction while those from ERA-40

are significant wave height, wave period and wave direction.

Calibration is performed to adjust the model parameters in order to reproduce time series

of wave at five locations illustrated in Figure 5.1-1. Calibrating parameters, used in

MIKE21 SW are illustrated as follows:

Bottom friction

An increase of the bottom friction coefficient in shallow water depths usually

leads to increased energy dissipation and thus decreased wave heights and

increased wave periods. The converse is also the case. In deep water the effect of

bottom friction will be negligible, since the waves will not feel the bottom.

Breaking parameters

There are two calibration parameters, γ and α in wave breaking. Parameter α

controls the rate of energy dissipation after breaking as well as γ (depth-induced)

controls the amount of depth related breaking. An increase in α, is increase the rate

of energy dissipation while increasing γ reduces the amount of depth related wave

breaking.

White-capping

In most application it will apply the default values of the two free parameters

controlling the rate of white-cap (or steepness induced) dissipation; Cds and δ. The

default values (Cds=4.5 and δ=0.5) are identical to the recommendations made in

Komen et al., (1994).

Calibration of the model is performed with wave data sets at five locations in offshore area.

The statistical parameters, such as root mean square error, efficiency index and correlation

coefficient are computed for the model performance analysis between observed and

30

modeled data. In this case, the breaking parameters in the offshore or white-capping area

Cds is used as calibrated parameters.

Figure 5.1-1 Locations of wave data for model calibration

The results of model calibrations can be summarized as follows:

Model calibration at Hon Dau is shown in Figure 5.1-2, 5.1-3 and Table 5.1-1. The

comparison of the plots of wave time series between ship observation and computed result

from model shows good agreement. Scatter plot shows that correlation coefficient (R2) is

0.43 which considered as fair result. There are a number of statistic indicators as shown in

a Table 5.1-1, starting from the followings:

- Efficiency Index (EI); It shows good side of modeling performance. When the

error is equal to zero or the matching of measured and computed is perfect, EI is equal to 1.

31

- Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE); It shows mathematically square root of

summation of square error. When RMSE is zero, there is no difference between measured

and computed results.

- Mean Absolute Error (MAE); This indicator is the mean of absolute error which

does not take into account the sign of error. When error is zero, MAE is equal to zero as

well.

- Root Mean Square Error Mean (RMSEM); This indicator is ratio of RMSE to

its mean value showing the proportion of error relative to its mean value.

- Root Mean Square Error over Standard Deviation (RMSES); This indicator is

the ratio of RMSE to its standard deviation. It shows how big RMSE is when it is

compared to standard deviation.

Table 5.1-1 shows a summary of the statistic performance of the modeling results at two

ship observations which are Hon Dau and Hon Ngu, and three ERA-40 wave locations

which are Point B, E and K. The model calibration at Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, Station B, E and

K is shown in Figure 5.1-2 to 5.1-11.

Model calibration at Hon Dau and Hon Ngu using ship observation data shows moderate

model performance with small value of EI in the range of 0.48 to 0.57 for significant wave

height and 0.48 to 0.57 for wave direction. Overall R show good correlation of computed

significant wave height and direction with the ship observation wave data.

Model calibration at Station B, E and K using ERA-40 wave data shows good model

performance of EI values in the range of 0.69 to 0.84 for significant wave height and 0.56

to 0.64 for wave direction with small RMSE. Scatter plot shows high value of correlation

coefficient and coefficient of determination.

Overall model performance gives moderate to good values of EI, R and R2 for the

comparison between computed and ship observation and ERA-40 significant wave height

and wave direction by calibrating parameter, Cds. Using Cds parameter equals to 4.5 which

is recommended value in numerical simulations, this helps to improve model results and

also gives good model results. The best model performance, EI, R and R2 gives good

model results is at Station E and the minimum value is at Hon Ngu.

Table 5.1-1 Summary of statistic performance of modeling result at Hon Dau, Hon Ngu,

Point B, E and K

Index Hon Dau Hon Ngu Point B Point E Point K

Hm0 θm Hm0 θm Hm0 θm Hm0 θm Hm0 θm

EI 0.57 0.48 0.48 0.57 0.69 0.57 0.89 0.56 0.84 0.64

RMSE (m, deg) 0.29 47.10 0.22 47.37 0.24 53.90 0.20 8.09 0.25 0.96

MAE (m, deg) 0.21 33.12 0.10 35.25 0.16 33.00 0.16 6.45 0.19 0.76

RMSEM 0.45 0.37 0.26 0.43 0.36 0.48 0.12 0.15 0.24 0.16

RMSES 1.11 0.82 0.55 0.74 0.81 1.03 0.33 0.66 0.39 0.60

R 0.71 0.63 0.58 0.59 0.70 0.59 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.91

R2 0.43 0.22 0.43 0.45 0.49 0.47 0.94 0.90 0.90 0.71

32

a) Time series of ship observation and NCEP/CFSR wave height at Hon Dau

b) Time series of ship observation and NCEP/CFSR wave direction at Hon Dau

Figure 5.1-2 Result of model calibration at Hon Dau

Figure 5.1-3 Scatter plot of wave height at Hon Dau

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

01-Jul-96 16-Jul-96 31-Jul-96 15-Aug-96 30-Aug-96 14-Sep-96 29-Sep-96

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Date

Time Series of Ship Observation and NCEP/CFSR Wave Height at Hon Dau

Hm0 (m) : Ship Observation Hm0 (m) : NCEP/CFSR

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

01-Jul-96 16-Jul-96 31-Jul-96 15-Aug-96 30-Aug-96 14-Sep-96 29-Sep-96

Wave D

irecti

on

, θm

(d

eg

)

Date

Time Series of Ship Observation and NCEP/CFSR Wave Direction at Hon Dau

Wave Direction : Ship Observation Wave Direction : NCEP/CFSR

R² = 0.43

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

Hm

0 (

m)

: N

CE

P/C

FS

R

Hm0 (m) : Ship Observation

33

a) Time series of ship observation and NCEP/CFSR wave height at Hon Ngu

b) Time series of ship observation and NCEP/CFSR wave direction at Hon Ngu

Figure 5.1-4 Result of model calibration at Hon Ngu

Figure 5.1-5 Scatter plot of wave height at Hon Ngu

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

01-Aug-94 31-Aug-94 30-Sep-94 30-Oct-94 29-Nov-94 29-Dec-94

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Date

Time Series of Ship Observation and NCEP/CFSR Wave Height at Hon Ngu

Hm0 (m) : Ship Observation Hm0 (m) : NCEP/CFSR

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

01-Aug-94 31-Aug-94 30-Sep-94 30-Oct-94 29-Nov-94 29-Dec-94

Wave D

irecti

on

, θm

(d

eg

))

Date

Time Series of Ship Observation and NCEP/CFSR Wave Direction at Hon Ngu

Wave Direction : Ship Observation Wave Direction : NCEP/CFSR

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

Hm

0 (

m)

: N

CE

P/C

FS

R

Hm0 (m) : Ship Observation

R2=0.43

34

a) Time series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR wave height at Point B

b) Time series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR wave direction at Point B

Figure 5.1-6 Result of model calibration at Point B

Figure 5.1-7 Scatter plot of wave height at Point B

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

01-May-90 21-May-90 10-Jun-90 30-Jun-90 20-Jul-90

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Date

Time Series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR Wave Height at Point B

Hm0 (m) : ERA-40 Hm0 (m) : NCEP/CFSR

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

01-May-90 21-May-90 10-Jun-90 30-Jun-90 20-Jul-90

Wave D

irecti

on

, θm

(d

eg

)

Date

Time Series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR Wave Direction at Point B

Wave Direction : ERA-40 Wave Direction : NCEP/CFSR

R² = 0.49

0

1

2

3

4

0 1 2 3 4

Hm

0 (

m)

: N

CE

P/C

FS

R

Hm0 (m) : ERA-40

35

a) Time series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR wave height at Point E

b) Time series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR wave direction at Point E

Figure 5.1-8 Result of model calibration at Point E

Figure 5.1-9 Scatter plot of wave height at Point E

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

01-Nov-94 16-Nov-94 01-Dec-94 16-Dec-94 31-Dec-94 15-Jan-95 30-Jan-95

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Date

Time Series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR Wave Height at Point E

Hm0 (m) : ERA-40 Hm0 (m) : NCEP/CFSR

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

01-Nov-94 16-Nov-94 01-Dec-94 16-Dec-94 31-Dec-94 15-Jan-95 30-Jan-95

Wave D

irecti

on

. θm

(d

eg

)

Date

Time Series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR Wave Direction at Point E

Wave Direction : ERA-40 Wave Direction : NCEP/CFSR

R² = 0.94

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Hm

0 (

m)

: N

CE

P/C

FS

R

Hm0 (m) : ERA-40

36

a) Time series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR wave height at Point K

b) Time series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR wave direction at Point K

Figure 5.1-10 Result of model calibration at Point K

Figure 5.1-11 Scatter plot of wave height at Point K

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

01-Aug-93 21-Aug-93 10-Sep-93 30-Sep-93 20-Oct-93 09-Nov-93 29-Nov-93 19-Dec-93

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Date

Time Series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR Wave Height at Point K

Hm0 (m) : ERA-40 Hm0 (m) : NCEP/CFSR

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

01-Aug-93 21-Aug-93 10-Sep-93 30-Sep-93 20-Oct-93 09-Nov-93 29-Nov-93 19-Dec-93

Wave D

irecti

on

, θm

(d

eg

)

Date

Time Series of ERA-40 and NCEP/CFSR Wave Direction at Point K

Wave Direction : ERA-40 Wave Direction : NCEP/CFSR

R² = 0.90

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Hm

0 (

m)

: N

CE

P/C

FS

R

Hm0 (m) : ERA-40

37

5.2 Modeling Result of Present Wave Climate

The modeling work of MIKE21 SW is conducted at ten locations along the coast of

Vietnam. There are the stations Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A, B, C, C1, E, E1, G, G1, K, L, L1

and O as shown in Figure 5.2-1. There are three wind fields used as model input, which are

NECP/CFSR, ECHAM5 and GFDL. Results of mean monthly ten stations significant wave

height, significant wave period and wave direction, are shown in Figure 5.2-2 and 5.2-3

from Hon Dau and Point G.

Monthly mean result at Hon Dau shows that computed significant wave height has similar

value from the three wind fields. Significant wave period from NCEP/CFSR is a bit higher

than those two results and mean wave direction is a bit lower. Result of Point G is similar

to Hon Dau. All results of significant wave height at the 14 wave locations from north to

South Vietnam are shown in Figure 5.2-4. Wave height in nearest monsoon from

October/November to March has bigger wave height than other months, especially in Point

E, G and L which are located in very deep water, at depths from 400 to 1,700 m. Its mean

significant wave height is greater than two meters. Table B-1 to B-14 shows annual mean

of significant wave height, wave period and wave direction. The plot of the results and

their differences is shown in Figure 5.2-5.

Comparison of mean significant wave height between results from NCEP/CFSR, ECHAM

and GFDL for 1981 to 2000 in Figure 5.2-5 shows that most of them have small different

value except the south cost of Vietnam, Point K, L and O showing higher mean value for

NCEP/CFSR. For mean significant wave period, they show the same result but those from

NCEP/CFSR have clearly higher values than the other two at only one station, Hon Ngu in

the northern coast of Vietnam and gradually reduced to small difference toward the south.

Mean wave direction shows small differences except in one station, Hon Ngu with lower

values compared to others.

Table 5.2-1 Summary of depths and distances from shoreline at 14 locations

Station Depth (m) Distance (km) Remark

Hon Dau -36 0.60 N

Hon Ngu -35 3 N

Station A -27 105 N

Station B -60 60 N

Station C -156 250 O

Station C1 -47 25 N

Station E -419 117 O

Station E1 -50 33 N

Station G -1,724 64 O

Station G1 -50 43 N

Station K -23 50 N

Station L -1,496 194 O

Station L1 -48 40 N

Station O -52 120 N

Remark: “O” means Offshore and “N” means Nearshore

38

Figure 5.2-1 Locations of wave climate output from modeling

39

Figure 5.2-2 Present wave parameter at Hon Dau

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

40

Figure 5.2-3 Present wave parameter at Point G

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

41

Figure 5.2-4 Monthly mean significant wave height (Hm0)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point A

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

42

Figure 5.2-4 Monthly mean significant wave height (Hm0) (Cont’d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point B

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point C

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

43

Figure 5.2-4 Monthly mean significant wave height (Hm0) (Cont’d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point E

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

44

Figure 5.2-4 Monthly mean significant wave height (Hm0) (Cont’d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point K

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point L

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

45

Figure 5.2-4 Monthly mean significant wave height (Hm0) (Cont’d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point O

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

46

Figure 5.2-5 Summary of mean wave parameters and their differences

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Hon Dau Hon Ngu Point A Point B Point C Point C1 Point E Point E1 Point G Point G1 Point K Point L Point L1 Point O

Me

an

Hs a

nd

∆H

s (

m)

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM GFDL NCEP/CFSR-ECHAM NCEP/CFSR-GFDL

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Hon Dau Hon Ngu Point A Point B Point C Point C1 Point E Point E1 Point G Point G1 Point K Point L Point L1 Point O

Me

an

Ts

an

d ∆

Ts

(s

)

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM GFDL NCEP/CFSR-ECHAM NCEP/CFSR-GFDL

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Hon Dau Hon Ngu Point A Point B Point C Point C1 Point E Point E1 Point G Point G1 Point K Point L Point L1 Point O

Me

an

θa

nd

∆θ

(de

g)

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM GFDL NCEP/CFSR-ECHAM NCEP/CFSR-GFDL

47

5.3 Modeling Result of Future Wave Climate

The computed results of future wave climate from MIKE21 SW can be analyzed and

presented in three categories which are mean monthly (and annual), probability distribution

and spatial distribution of three wave parameters i.e., significant wave height, period and

wave direction.

The first analysis shows the temporal distribution of wave climate in a monthly basis and

annual value at 10 locations along Vietnam coast which are Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A, B,

C,…, L and O, and 4 additional nearshore wave locations which are C1, E1, G1 and L1 in

order to obtain wave conditions that could be a direct use in potential future longshore

sediment transport calculations. The second one shows the change of probability

distribution which includes small to high wave height and wave period. The last one shows

spatial distribution of wave climate using all results from model to show the change of

their mean value.

Table 5.3-1 Summary of depths and distances from shoreline at 14 locations

Station Depth (m) Distance (km) Remark

Hon Dau -36 0.60 N

Hon Ngu -35 3 N

Station A -27 105 N

Station B -60 60 N

Station C -156 250 O

Station C1 -47 25 N

Station E -419 117 O

Station E1 -50 33 N

Station G -1,724 64 O

Station G1 -50 43 N

Station K -23 50 N

Station L -1,496 194 O

Station L1 -48 40 N

Station O -52 120 N

Remark: “O” means Offshore and “N” means Nearshore

5.3.1 Monthly and Annual Mean Wave Climate

The results of computed monthly mean wave climate for present (1981 to 2000) and future

(2041 to 2060 and 2060 to 2100) are presented in tabular form in Table C-1 to C-42. Their

differences are computed and shown in Table C-43 to C-57. Plots of mean wave climate

distribution are shown in Figure C-1 to C-14. Plots of differences of monthly wave climate

are in Figure C-15 to C-28. For two stations, at Hon Dau and Point G are in Figure 5.3.1-1

and 5.3.1-2 and Table 5.3.1-1. It is noted that the difference of positive or increasing wave

direction means changing of wave direction in clockwise direction and negative or

decreasing wave direction means changing of wave direction in counter-clockwise

direction.

48

Monthly mean wave climate at Hon Dau derived by wind fields derived wave, ECHAM

and GFDL show variation of slightly decreasing trends of mean significant wave height by

negative difference in Figure 5.3.1-1 and has the maximum difference by 0.16 m (21%, as

percent different from present period) in October and the minimum difference is 0.04 m

(7%) in April. The average monthly mean significant wave height from 2081 to 2100 is

gradually decreasing in similar qualitative related to average mean significant wave height

in 2040-2061. Monthly mean wave period is slightly changing in an increasing trend by 0-

0.28 s with the maximum difference of 0.28 s (5%) in November and the minimum

difference of 0.02 s (0.4%) in February and October. Variation of monthly mean wave

direction is varied between 0-15 degrees. Average monthly mean wave direction turns

clockwise throughout the year, with the maximum difference in clockwise direction by 15

degrees (13%) in September and the minimum difference is change by 0.01 degree (0.1%)

in May.

Figure 5.3.1-2 shows the monthly mean wave climate at Station G and how the monthly

mean significant wave height varies between 0-0.30 m. The average mean significant wave

height in 2041-2060 decreases throughout the year. On the other hand, the average mean

significant wave height in 2081-2100 shows that the significant wave height is reduced

during May to October from 0-0.10 m (less than 10%) and significantly increased during

November to January by 0.30 m (17%). Average of monthly mean wave period has similar

trend with average of monthly mean significant wave height. The maximum difference is

0.43 s (9%) in September and November and the minimum difference is 0.02 s (0.5%) in

March. Variation of monthly mean wave direction varies between 0-13 degrees. In April

and May, monthly mean wave direction is slightly change by 9 degrees (9%) in counter-

clockwise direction and in September, wave direction is turned to by 13 degrees (8%) in

clockwise direction.

Differences of average future and present waves between 2041 to 2060 and 1981 to 2000

and between 2081 to 2100 and 1981 to 2000 for 14 locations are shown in Figure 5.3.1-3

and Table 5.3.1-1. Changes of future wave climate and can be categorized into three major

areas (1) North coast (i.e., Station Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A and B) (2) Central coast (i.e.,

Station C, C1, E and E1) and (3) South coast (i.e., Station G, G1, K, L, L1 and O) of

Vietnam.

In north Vietnam (Station Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A and B), future significant wave height

slightly decreases along the coast by 1-5 cm (1-7%) in year 2041 to 2060 and 3-8 cm (3-

12%) in year 2081 to 2100 except at Station B, which results contrarily increased by 5 cm

(4%). For changes of future wave period, the results show slightly increasing trend at all

stations by 0.03-0.08 s (1-2%) in year 2041 to 2060 and 0.12-0.19 s (2-4%) in year 2081 to

2100. Future wave direction turns to clockwise direction (towards the south) by 1-3

degrees (1-2%) in year 2041-2060 and slightly more to 3-4 degrees (2-3%) in year 2081-

2100 from south-easterly wave in present.

In central Vietnam (Station C, C1, E and E1), future significant wave height along the

coast trends to decrease around 4-6 cm (3-7%) in year 2041 to 2060 and increase by 4-5

49

cm (1-5%) in year 2081 to 2100, which is remaining as present value. For the wave period,

the result at each station tends to slightly decrease by 0.02-0.07 s (1%) from 2041 to 2060

and increase by 0.07-0.10 s (1-2%) in year 2081 to 2100 except at Station C1 that reduces

0.02 s. Future wave direction turns to clockwise direction (toward the south) with the

changes of 1-5 degrees (1-4%) in year 2041 to 2060 and 1-6 degrees (1-5%) in year 2081

to 2100 from south-easterly wave in present.

In south Vietnam (Station G, G1, K, L, L1 and O), future significant wave height is slightly

decreased by 3-6 cm (1-8%) in year 2041 to 2060 and increased by 2-7 cm (1-5%) from

year 2081 to 2100. Future wave period slightly decreases by 0.03-0.11 s (1-2%) from year

2041 to 2060 and adversely increases by 0.02-0.16 s (1-3%) in year 2081 to 2100. Future

wave direction turns to counter clockwise direction (towards the north) with the changes of

2-5 degrees (1-4%) in year 2041 to 2060 and 3-8 degrees (2-6%) in year 2081 to 2100 from

easterly wave in present.

Table 5.3.1-1 Differences in average significant wave height, wave period and wave

direction between 2041 to 2060 and 1981 to 2000 and 2081 to 2100 and 1981 to 2000 at 14

locations

Stations

Difference of Wave Parameters

b/w 2041 to 2060 - 1981 to 2000

Difference of Wave Parameters

b/w 2081 to 2100 - 1981 to 2000

Average

Hm0 (m)

Average

Tm0 (s)

Average

θm (deg)

Average

Hm0 (m)

Average

Tm0 (s)

Average

θm (deg)

Hon Dau -0.05 0.08 2.44 -0.08 0.19 3.55

Hon Ngu -0.05 0.08 2.44 -0.08 0.19 3.55

Point A -0.01 0.07 2.79 -0.03 0.15 3.34

Point B -0.02 0.03 0.63 0.05 0.12 2.47

Point C -0.04 -0.02 4.56 -0.01 0.10 4.37

Point C1 -0.07 -0.04 1.39 0.05 -0.02 5.79

Point E -0.06 -0.07 1.21 0.05 0.07 1.09

Point E1 -0.06 -0.05 0.50 0.04 0.08 1.22

Point G -0.06 -0.11 -1.39 0.07 0.03 -2.49

Point G1 -0.05 -0.09 -0.45 0.07 0.02 -0.77

Point K -0.04 -0.05 -2.94 0.02 0.16 -4.70

Point L -0.06 -0.10 -4.96 0.05 0.06 -6.78

Point L1 -0.05 -0.09 -1.88 0.04 0.10 -4.48

Point O -0.03 -0.03 -5.45 0.04 0.15 -7.95

50

Figure 5.3.1-1 Change of monthly mean wave parameters at Hon Dau

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

51

Figure 5.3.1-2 Change of monthly mean wave parameters at Point G

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

52

Figure 5.3.1-3 Change of annual wave parameters

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Hon Dau Hon Ngu Point A Point B Point C Point C1 Point E Point E1 Point G Point G1 Point K Point L Point L1 Point O

∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs (m) : ECHAM (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000) ∆Hs (m) : GFDL (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000)

∆Hs (m) : Average (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000) ∆Hs (m) : ECHAM (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000)

∆Hs (m) : GFDL (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000) ∆Hs (m) : Average (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000)

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Hon Dau Hon Ngu Point A Point B Point C Point C1 Point E Point E1 Point G Point G1 Point K Point L Point L1 Point O

∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts (m) : ECHAM (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000) ∆Ts (m) : GFDL (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000)

∆Ts (m) : Average (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000) ∆Ts (m) : ECHAM (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000)

∆Ts (m) : GFDL (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000) ∆Ts (m) : Average (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000)

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Hon Dau Hon Ngu Point A Point B Point C Point C1 Point E Point E1 Point G Point G1 Point K Point L Point L1 Point O

∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ (m) : ECHAM (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000) ∆θ (m) : GFDL (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000)

∆θ (m) : Average (2041 to 2060) - (1981 to 2000) ∆θ (m) : ECHAM (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000)

∆θ (m) : GFDL (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000) ∆θ (m) : Average (2081 to 2100) - (1981 to 2000)

53

5.3.2 Probability Distribution

The result of the model can be plotted in the form of a probability distribution in order to

show the distribution of wave height, wave period and direction.

Figure D-1 to D-14 show the probability distribution of wave climate at present and future

conditions. Change of future wave climate compared to present in term of probability plot

can be shown in Figure D-15 to D-28. Result at station Hon Dau and Point G are in Figure

5.3.2-1 to 5.3.2-4.

The deviation of the probability distribution of significant wave height from present to

future condition [∆p(Hm0)] provides information of changing of number of waves at

different scales. At Hon Dau, the upper north station, in year 2041 to 2060, the number of

significant wave height which is less than 1 m increases, while those which are greater than

1 m to 2.5 m decrease. The same results are clearly shown from 2081 to 2100 in Figure

D15 and 5.3.2-3. Similar results can be seen along the Vietnam coast from north to south

from stations Hon Ngu, A, E, E1, G, G1, K, L, L1 and O. Opposite results can be found in

Stations B, C, C1 and D, where the number of small waves decreases and the number of

wave height which are greater than 1 m increases. These stations are located in the same

area upper of central Vietnam. The highest change is less than 5%.

For deviation of significant wave period from present to future conditions [∆p(Tm0)] at

Hon Dau, it shows that the number of small wave period, less than 5 second is slightly

reduced and the number of wave period up to 7 second increases. The same results are

highlighted for results from the year 2081 to 2100. Similar discussion can be made at

stations A, B. The opposite results can be found at stations C, C1, G, G1, K, L, L1 and O.

The results do not have any patterns at stations Hon Ngu, E and E1. It can be concluded

that the slightly change of probability distribution of significant wave period can be

divided into 2 groups, one in the north, which are stations Hon Dau, A and B, and the other

one in the south, with the stations C, G, K, L and L1. The maximum changes of probability

density function do not exceed 0.05 or 5%.

For deviation of wave direction [∆p(θm0], it shows increment of probability of wave angle

around 135° at station Hon Dau and Hon Ngu. At station C and C1, Wave direction is

clearly seen to be increased for its probability density function around 90°, around 60°at

Station E and E1 and 45° at Station L and L1. The maximum values do not exceed 5%.

Figure 5.3.2-5 shows summary of areas that have probability change for significant wave

height and period.

Figure 5.3.2-5 shows Point G, G1, K, L, L1 and O increase in small wave height less than

1 m. and reduction of wave height greater than 1 m. The highest value change is less than

5%. There is an increase in the number of small wave period which is less than 5 seconds

and the number of those greater than 7 seconds is reduced.

54

Figure 5.3.2-1 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Hon Dau

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

55

Figure 5.3.2-2 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point G

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

56

Figure 5.3.2-3 Change of probability distribution at Hon Dau

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

57

Figure 5.3.2-4 Change of probability distribution at Point G

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

58

Figure 5.3.2-5 Probability change of significant wave height and wave period

59

5.3.3 Spatial Distribution

Time averaged mean significant wave height, wave period and wave direction derived

from climate model derived wind fields ECHAM and GFDL for three-time slices in

present period 1981 to 2000, projection periods 2041 to 2060 and 2081 to 2100 and their

average differences between 2081 to 2100 and 1981 to 2000 are used to represent changes

of future wave climate spatially. Positive changes in wave direction indicate clockwise

rotation (toward the south) and negative changes indicate counter clockwise rotation

(toward the north) of future wave directions.

Mori et al., 2010 showed the results of global wave climate projection changes depend on

the regions being negatively or positively as illustrated by following Figure 5.3.3-1. This

global mean significant wave height had been projected to increase at both middle latitude

and Antarctic Ocean, and decrease at the Equator. Projected time averaged mean

significant wave height difference between present and future period, 1979 to 2004 and

2075 to 2100. Similarly to this present modeling results shown in Figure 5.3.3-2, spatial

distribution of mean significant wave height shows that the highest wave height mostly

occurs off the north coast in deep water area. Comparing mean significant wave height

between 2081 to 2100 and 1981 to 2000, future wave height is increased by 4-8 cm along

north, central and south coasts except the coastal shelter area near Hon Dau and Hon Ngu,

which future wave height is reduced by 4-8 cm. Spatial distribution of future wave period

shows an increasing trend along Vietnam coast by 0.20 s in north and south coast and less

than 0.08 s in central coast (Figure 5.3.3-3).

Spatial distribution of future wave direction represented in Figure 5.3.3-4, shows that wave

direction changes by 4-8 degrees in clockwise direction (toward the south) along north and

central coast, while south-easterly waves in this area change to be more south-easterly. In

south coast, future mean wave direction changes by 4-8 degrees in counter clockwise

direction (toward the north), while mostly easterly waves in this area change to be more

north-easterly.

Figure 5.3.3-1 Time averaged mean significant wave height difference between future and

present period (Source: Mori et al., 2010)

∆Hs (m)

60

Aver

age

2081

-2100

Dif

fere

nce

of

signif

ican

t w

ave

hei

ght

bet

wee

n 2

08

1-2

100 a

nd 1

981-2

000

Aver

age

2041

-2060

Aver

age

1981

-2000

Figure 5.3.3-2 Spatial distribution of average ECHAM and GFDL mean significant wave

height in 1981-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100 and its difference between 2081-2100 and

1981-2000

61

Aver

age

2081

-2100

Dif

fere

nce

of

wav

e per

iod b

etw

een 2

081

-2100 a

nd 1

981

-2000

Aver

age

2041

-2060

Aver

age

1981

-2000

Figure 5.3.3-3 Spatial distribution of average ECHAM and GFDL mean wave period in

1981-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100 and its difference between 2081-2100 and 1981-2000

62

Aver

age

2081

-2100

Dif

fere

nce

of

wav

e dir

ecti

on b

etw

een 2

081

-2100 a

nd 1

981

-2000

Aver

age

2041

-2060

Aver

age

1981

-2000

Figure 5.3.3-4 Spatial distribution of average ECHAM and GFDL mean wave direction in

1981-2000, 2041-2060, 2081-2100 and its difference between 2081-2100 and 1981-2000

63

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS

1. The present study has successfully explored variations of present and future wave

climate at offshore waves at 14 locations along Vietnam coast using the numerical spectral

wave model, MIKE21 SW, which has been forced by NCEP/CFSR winds and climate

model derived wind from A2 scenario, downscaled from CCAM with ECHAM5 and

GFDL CM2.1 for three time slices; 1981 to 2000, 2041 to 2060 and 2081 to 2100.

2. Model calibration has been conducted by applying NCEP/CFSR wind field and the

model results have been compared to the wave data from the ship observations at two

locations, Hon Dau and Hon Ngu and to ERA-40 wave data at three locations, Point B,

Point E and Point K. Calibrating parameter, Cds with appropriated value of 4.5 gives

moderate to good model results compared with the wave data from two sources.

3. The comparison of the present mean significant wave height, wave period and wave

direction among the three computed results from NCEP/CFSR, ECHAM and GFDL from

year 1981 to 2000 showed small differences among the 3 sets of results. Only three stations

in the south coast of Vietnam (Station K, L and O) showed higher mean value of

significant wave height for NCEP/CFSR. Results of significant wave period from

NCEP/CFSR show higher values at only one station (Station Hon Ngu). Due to small

number of stations with different results, it can be interpreted that all wind field input data

provides more or less similar model outputs.

4. Future mean significant wave height in north coast of Vietnam is projected to be smaller

by about 8 cm with slightly longer wave period (increase of 0.20 s) and future wave

direction is projected to shift towards the south (clockwise) by less than 4 degrees. In the

central coast, future mean significant wave height is projected to slightly increase by 5 cm,

wave period to increase by less than 0.08 s and wave direction is projected to shift to the

south (clockwise) by less than 6 degrees. In south coast, the future mean significant wave

height is projected to slightly increase by 7 cm with longer wave period (increase of 0.16 s)

and future wave direction along south coast is projected to shift to the north (counter

clockwise) by less than 8 degrees.

5. The projected future changes of probability density function at the south coast of

Vietnam showed an increase of small wave heights less than 1 m and wave periods less

than 7 s. At the same time, a reduction of higher wave height and longer wave period was

found. The results could be emphasized towards the year 2100 but the biggest changes are

still unlikely exceed 5%.

6. The spatial distribution of the future mean significant wave height showed decreases of

wave height in north coast (Station Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A and B) of less than 8 cm and

64

increases of wave height in the south coast (Station G, G1, K, L, L1 and O) of less than 4

cm. The spatial distribution of future mean wave period was projected to increase along

Vietnam Coast by less than 0.20 s in north and less than 0.20 s in south coast. The spatial

distribution of future wave direction showed a change of wave direction clockwise

(towards the south) of less than 8 degrees in north coast (Station Hon Dau, Hon Ngu, A

and B) and central coast (Station C, C1, E and E1). On the other hand, future wave

direction changed counter clockwise (towards the north) along the south coast (Station G,

G1, K, L, L1 and O) by less than 8 degrees.

65

Changes of future wave direction

in 2041 to 2060

Changes of future wave direction

in 2081 to 2100

North coast

at Hon Ngu

Central

coast at

Station C1

South coast

at Station O

Figure 6.1 Changes of future wave direction in north (Hon Ngu), central (Station C1) and

south (Station O) coast of Vietnam in year 2041-2060 and 2081-2100

66

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69

Appendix A

Performance Measurement

70

Table A-1 Performance Measurement

Formula Optimum

Value Prediction

Percentage of water

balance (%)

Xi Y

i

i1

n

Xi

i1

n

100 0.00

(+) Overestimate

(-) Underestimate

or Mass balance

Peak flow difference

(unit)

p pX Y -

Mass balance and

routing

Percentage of Peak Flow

Error (PPE), (%) PPE

Ypeak

Xpeak

Xpeak

100 0.00 -

Percentage of Runoff

Volume Error (PVE),

(%)

PVE Vol

YVol

X

VolY

100 0.00 -

Root Mean Squared

Error (RMSE), (unit) RMSE

1

nXi Y

i 2

i1

n

0.00 Mass balance and

routing

Efficiency Index (EI) EI

Xi X

2

i1

n

Xi Y

i 2

i1

n

Xi X

2

i1

n

1.00 -

Standard Deviation (s),

(unit)

sx

Xi X 2

i1

n

n 1

sy

Yi Y 2

i1

n

n 1

- -

Correlation coefficient

(R)

R covXY

sxsy

covXY

Xi X Yi Y

i1

n

n 1

0.00

1.00

-1.00

No relationship

Positive relationship

Negative relationship

71

Coefficient of

determination (R2) R2 1

Xi Y

i 2

i1

n

Xi X

2

i1

n

1.00

Mass balance and

routing

Mean Absolute Error

(MAE), (unit) MAE

1

nXi Y

i

i1

n

0.00 -

Mean Percentage Error

(MPE), (%) MPE

1

n

XiY

i

Xi

i1

n

100 0.00 -

Mean Percentage Error

(MPE), (%) MPE

1

n

XiY

i

Xi

i1

n

100 0.00 -

Formula Optimum

Value Prediction

Mean Absolute

Percentage Error

(MAPE), (%)

MAPE MPE 1

n

XiY

i

Xii1

n

100 0.00 -

Root Mean Square Error

Mean (RMSEM)

RMSE

RMSEMX

0.00

Root Mean Square Error

over Standard Deviation

(RMSES)

RMSE

RMSESs

0.00

Root Mean Square

Relative Error (ER)

2

1

2

1 100n

i

i

n

i i

i

X

X Y

ER

0.00

Remark : X: Observed value

Y: Computed value

72

Appendix B

Result of Present Wave Climate

73

Table B-1 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Hon Dau

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 0.67 0.62 (0.05) 0.74 (-0.07)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 4.84 4.54 (0.30) 4.48 (0.36)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 118.95 130.14 (-11.19) 131.15 (-12.20)

Table B-2 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Hon Ngu

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 0.69 0.62 (0.06) 0.74 (-0.06)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.30 4.54 (0.76) 4.48 (0.82)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 102.03 130.14 (-28.11) 131.15 (-29.11)

Table B-3 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point A

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 0.92 0.79 (0.13) 0.83 (0.08)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 4.77 4.56 (0.20) 4.54 (0.23)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 113.28 129.98 (-16.70) 131.44 (-18.16)

Table B-4 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point B

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.00 1.03 (-0.03) 1.04 (-0.04)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.36 5.04 (0.32) 4.99 (0.37)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 102.71 126.54 (-23.84) 128.44 (-25.73)

Table B-5 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point C

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.26 1.26 (0.00) 1.31 (-0.05)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.72 5.39 (0.33) 5.44 (0.28)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 115.16 124.91 (-9.75) 121.69 (-6.53)

Table B-6 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point C1

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.01 0.97 (3.67) 1.01 (0.05)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.84 5.49 (5.91) 5.50 (5.78)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 94.14 116.01 (-23.24) 115.85 (-23.06)

74

Table B-7 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point E

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.28 1.21 (0.06) 1.25 (0.03)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.70 5.43 (0.28) 5.45 (0.25)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 106.78 116.99 (-10.21) 114.92 (-8.14)

Table B-8 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point E1

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.08 1.07 (0.01) 1.14 (-0.06)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.82 5.42 (0.40) 5.38 (0.45)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 97.86 113.92 (-16.06) 112.44 (-14.58)

Table B-9 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point G

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.24 1.13 (0.11) 1.16 (0.08)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.61 5.39 (0.23) 5.42 (0.20)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 106.91 113.93 (-7.01) 112.84 (-5.93)

Table B-10 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point G1

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.09 1.03 (0.05) 1.08 (0.01)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.76 5.47 (0.28) 5.44 (0.32)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 101.93 110.11 (-8.18) 108.61 (-6.55)

Table B-11 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point K

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.03 0.79 (0.23) 0.79 (0.24)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.08 4.87 (0.21) 4.85 (0.24)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 134.71 137.20 (-2.50) 137.77 (-3.06)

Table B-12 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point L

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.43 1.11 (0.32) 1.11 (0.32)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.47 5.27 (0.20) 5.34 (0.14)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 119.24 123.79 (-4.54) 123.38 (-4.14)

75

Table B-13 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point L1

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.11 1.01 (0.06) 1.05 (5.77)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.44 5.26 (0.18) 5.26 (3.38)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 116.01 122.07 (-6.32) 122.33 (-5.45)

Table B-14 Mean parameters from model ensembles for present period at Point O

Wave Parameters NCEP/CFSR

1981-2000

ECHAM

1981-2000

GFDL

1981-2000

Mean significant wave height, Hm0 (m) 1.04 0.74 (0.30) 0.72 (0.32)

Mean wave period, Tm0 (s) 5.08 4.74 (0.34) 4.73 (0.35)

Mean Wave Direction, θm (deg) 136.97 134.76 (2.21) 137.15 (-0.18)

76

Figure B-1 Present wave parameter at Hon Dau

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

77

Figure B-2 Present wave parameter at Hon Ngu

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

78

Figure B-3 Present wave parameter at Point A

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point A

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point A

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point A

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

79

Figure B-4 Present wave parameter at Point B

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point B

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point B

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point B

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

80

Figure B-5 Present wave parameter at Point C

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point C

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point C

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point C

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

81

Figure B-6 Present wave parameter at Point C1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

82

Figure B-7 Present wave parameter at Point E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point E

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point E

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point E

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

83

Figure B-8 Present wave parameter at Point E1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

84

Figure B-9 Present wave parameter at Point G

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

85

Figure B-10 Present wave parameter at Point G1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

86

Figure B-11 Present wave parameter at Point K

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point K

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point K

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point K

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

87

Figure B-12 Present wave parameter at Point L

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point L

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point L

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point L

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

88

Figure B-13 Present wave parameter at Point L1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

89

Figure B-14 Present wave parameter at Point O

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point O

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point O

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point O

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

90

91

Appendix C

Result of Monthly Mean Future Wave Climate

92

Table C-1 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Hon

Dau

Table C-2 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Hon Dau

Table C-3 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 0.73 0.75 0.84 0.72 0.68 0.68 0.68

Feb 0.74 0.73 0.83 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.67

Mar 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.70 0.70 0.67 0.67

Apr 0.68 0.68 0.82 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66

May 0.63 0.57 0.76 0.65 0.74 0.59 0.60

Jun 0.63 0.53 0.63 0.51 0.54 0.53 0.54

Jul 0.63 0.49 0.62 0.55 0.54 0.58 0.51

Aug 0.52 0.36 0.50 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.41

Sep 0.51 0.35 0.44 0.34 0.38 0.31 0.32

Oct 0.72 0.74 0.80 0.70 0.64 0.57 0.62

Nov 0.75 0.80 0.98 0.88 0.76 0.76 0.76

Dec 0.76 0.75 0.89 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.70

Annual 0.67 0.62 0.74 0.63 0.63 0.60 0.59

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 5.09 4.93 4.68 5.00 4.77 4.99 5.12

Feb 5.08 4.68 4.70 4.75 4.70 4.85 4.75

Mar 5.06 4.66 4.45 4.55 4.58 4.62 4.66

Apr 4.78 4.32 4.32 4.40 4.47 4.54 4.45

May 4.51 4.07 4.19 4.26 4.43 4.28 4.25

Jun 4.55 4.09 4.04 4.15 4.16 4.23 4.33

Jul 4.55 4.32 4.33 4.46 4.51 4.68 4.55

Aug 4.41 4.02 4.17 4.09 4.14 4.33 4.38

Sep 4.37 3.85 3.87 3.84 3.89 3.88 3.93

Oct 5.05 5.04 4.86 4.91 4.99 4.89 5.04

Nov 5.30 5.34 5.13 5.53 5.36 5.55 5.53

Dec 5.37 5.14 5.08 5.22 5.11 5.44 5.46

Annual 4.84 4.54 4.48 4.60 4.59 4.69 4.70

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 97.13 113.14 112.46 114.04 122.29 117.75 117.47

Feb 102.00 129.54 122.00 126.02 130.67 128.82 131.87

Mar 114.21 130.74 137.07 134.52 135.37 136.57 137.79

Apr 126.17 136.69 142.34 142.05 139.18 139.90 138.41

May 132.18 140.37 149.62 145.61 144.45 139.68 141.75

Jun 148.58 163.51 163.78 166.83 163.45 162.49 163.85

Jul 155.84 178.97 184.15 180.44 186.01 176.32 177.54

Aug 148.93 165.30 172.13 167.06 172.06 173.90 171.89

Sep 115.13 112.28 116.46 123.92 119.85 133.79 125.50

Oct 97.32 92.35 88.58 91.83 98.13 105.03 99.29

Nov 94.56 96.09 88.40 91.13 94.72 96.81 96.05

Dec 95.32 102.75 96.79 100.75 103.62 105.09 103.13

Annual 118.95 130.14 131.15 132.02 134.15 134.68 133.71

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

93

Table C-4 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Hon

Ngu

Table C-5 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Hon Ngu

Table C-6 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 0.87 0.75 0.84 0.72 0.68 0.68 0.68

Feb 0.84 0.73 0.83 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.67

Mar 0.80 0.75 0.80 0.70 0.70 0.67 0.67

Apr 0.67 0.68 0.82 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66

May 0.55 0.57 0.76 0.65 0.74 0.59 0.60

Jun 0.48 0.53 0.63 0.51 0.54 0.53 0.54

Jul 0.46 0.49 0.62 0.55 0.54 0.58 0.51

Aug 0.41 0.36 0.50 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.41

Sep 0.48 0.35 0.44 0.34 0.38 0.31 0.32

Oct 0.82 0.74 0.80 0.70 0.64 0.57 0.62

Nov 0.91 0.80 0.98 0.88 0.76 0.76 0.76

Dec 0.94 0.75 0.89 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.70

Annual 0.69 0.62 0.74 0.63 0.63 0.60 0.59

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 5.93 4.93 4.68 5.00 4.77 4.99 5.12

Feb 5.77 4.68 4.70 4.75 4.70 4.85 4.75

Mar 5.54 4.66 4.45 4.55 4.58 4.62 4.66

Apr 5.09 4.32 4.32 4.40 4.47 4.54 4.45

May 4.73 4.07 4.19 4.26 4.43 4.28 4.25

Jun 4.59 4.09 4.04 4.15 4.16 4.23 4.33

Jul 4.52 4.32 4.33 4.46 4.51 4.68 4.55

Aug 4.46 4.02 4.17 4.09 4.14 4.33 4.38

Sep 4.68 3.85 3.87 3.84 3.89 3.88 3.93

Oct 5.74 5.04 4.86 4.91 4.99 4.89 5.04

Nov 6.20 5.34 5.13 5.53 5.36 5.55 5.53

Dec 6.38 5.14 5.08 5.22 5.11 5.44 5.46

Annual 5.30 4.54 4.48 4.60 4.59 4.69 4.70

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 84.81 113.14 112.46 114.04 122.29 117.75 117.47

Feb 87.45 129.54 122.00 126.02 130.67 128.82 131.87

Mar 96.72 130.74 137.07 134.52 135.37 136.57 137.79

Apr 104.59 136.69 142.34 142.05 139.18 139.90 138.41

May 110.97 140.37 149.62 145.61 144.45 139.68 141.75

Jun 128.58 163.51 163.78 166.83 163.45 162.49 163.85

Jul 135.82 178.97 184.15 180.44 186.01 176.32 177.54

Aug 128.54 165.30 172.13 167.06 172.06 173.90 171.89

Sep 98.25 112.28 116.46 123.92 119.85 133.79 125.50

Oct 84.43 92.35 88.58 91.83 98.13 105.03 99.29

Nov 81.89 96.09 88.40 91.13 94.72 96.81 96.05

Dec 82.38 102.75 96.79 100.75 103.62 105.09 103.13

Annual 102.03 130.14 131.15 132.02 134.15 134.68 133.71

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

94

Table C-7 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point A

Table C-8 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point A

Table C-9 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point A

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.05 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.81 0.85 0.86

Feb 1.05 0.86 0.89 0.83 0.81 0.86 0.79

Mar 1.02 0.86 0.82 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.75

Apr 0.90 0.78 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.81 0.76

May 0.82 0.70 0.81 0.80 0.89 0.75 0.74

Jun 0.84 0.72 0.74 0.72 0.74 0.74 0.78

Jul 0.84 0.73 0.80 0.85 0.84 0.87 0.78

Aug 0.68 0.50 0.62 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.62

Sep 0.66 0.44 0.48 0.41 0.48 0.40 0.43

Oct 1.01 0.99 0.94 0.94 0.84 0.75 0.85

Nov 1.08 1.06 1.16 1.20 1.01 1.06 1.08

Dec 1.10 0.95 1.02 0.92 0.90 0.96 0.94

Annual 0.92 0.79 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 5.05 4.92 4.70 5.00 4.77 4.98 5.06

Feb 5.05 4.70 4.76 4.82 4.75 4.90 4.79

Mar 5.02 4.72 4.52 4.63 4.67 4.69 4.76

Apr 4.73 4.35 4.35 4.43 4.51 4.59 4.50

May 4.47 4.10 4.21 4.27 4.45 4.27 4.25

Jun 4.50 4.21 4.16 4.25 4.27 4.27 4.41

Jul 4.48 4.47 4.54 4.67 4.72 4.79 4.67

Aug 4.31 4.08 4.28 4.15 4.23 4.38 4.44

Sep 4.25 3.83 3.87 3.78 3.87 3.82 3.87

Oct 4.93 5.03 4.84 4.87 4.92 4.79 4.95

Nov 5.16 5.26 5.13 5.47 5.26 5.45 5.45

Dec 5.24 5.10 5.08 5.14 5.04 5.34 5.33

Annual 4.77 4.56 4.54 4.62 4.62 4.69 4.71

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 81.93 106.40 107.78 105.67 117.41 109.72 108.90

Feb 88.64 127.78 118.05 122.27 128.54 125.52 128.78

Mar 105.46 128.80 136.37 133.66 134.52 135.53 136.74

Apr 122.49 138.39 143.51 144.77 140.99 140.42 138.66

May 132.07 146.52 154.98 152.31 150.38 144.01 146.68

Jun 156.00 176.43 173.00 181.09 177.58 176.28 177.21

Jul 167.10 195.47 201.62 196.73 202.58 192.11 193.83

Aug 158.50 180.23 187.32 181.78 188.01 189.92 188.95

Sep 110.03 109.50 115.81 125.78 123.02 136.44 127.61

Oct 82.59 78.06 76.66 78.22 85.46 92.54 87.01

Nov 77.04 81.29 75.70 74.76 79.47 80.75 79.71

Dec 77.50 90.83 86.45 87.06 91.94 91.24 88.58

Annual 113.28 129.98 131.44 132.01 134.99 134.54 133.55

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

95

Table C-10 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point B

Table C-11 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point B

Table C-12 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point B

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.28 1.33 1.24 1.29 1.17 1.35 1.39

Feb 1.17 1.07 1.23 1.09 1.05 1.16 1.14

Mar 1.06 1.06 0.98 0.95 0.99 1.00 1.05

Apr 0.86 0.75 0.78 0.75 0.83 0.85 0.85

May 0.72 0.58 0.60 0.57 0.63 0.61 0.61

Jun 0.69 0.68 0.65 0.67 0.70 0.66 0.76

Jul 0.67 0.88 0.91 1.03 1.06 1.00 1.00

Aug 0.63 0.64 0.73 0.71 0.78 0.86 0.91

Sep 0.69 0.56 0.59 0.47 0.58 0.51 0.59

Oct 1.25 1.54 1.41 1.38 1.32 1.27 1.36

Nov 1.45 1.77 1.79 1.87 1.64 1.89 1.86

Dec 1.51 1.53 1.58 1.48 1.43 1.67 1.65

Annual 1.00 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.07 1.10

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.23 6.02 5.62 6.14 5.75 6.12 6.20

Feb 5.92 5.34 5.57 5.55 5.38 5.55 5.57

Mar 5.52 5.27 4.83 5.04 5.14 5.14 5.34

Apr 4.98 4.56 4.41 4.43 4.66 4.74 4.78

May 4.64 4.05 3.99 3.99 4.12 4.13 4.06

Jun 4.46 3.88 3.90 3.84 3.90 3.81 3.97

Jul 4.31 4.16 4.29 4.38 4.44 4.36 4.35

Aug 4.31 3.85 4.06 3.96 4.05 4.13 4.21

Sep 4.65 4.16 4.27 4.04 4.18 4.00 4.04

Oct 5.96 6.11 6.00 5.90 5.98 5.83 5.95

Nov 6.58 6.64 6.54 6.79 6.57 6.81 6.75

Dec 6.81 6.44 6.43 6.47 6.32 6.72 6.68

Annual 5.36 5.04 4.99 5.04 5.04 5.11 5.16

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 72.41 86.04 90.85 83.00 92.66 86.84 86.14

Feb 75.97 102.09 95.65 95.88 101.04 98.45 99.23

Mar 90.00 101.78 107.38 102.76 102.34 104.55 102.73

Apr 100.75 112.94 117.77 114.44 109.93 109.20 108.15

May 114.50 142.98 148.23 145.72 139.82 132.24 140.24

Jun 148.75 200.40 201.16 210.98 205.21 200.28 208.43

Jul 158.83 229.35 230.42 229.97 232.63 222.14 232.76

Aug 159.81 217.46 219.69 215.31 225.85 228.78 234.75

Sep 103.48 119.57 124.46 134.93 130.80 148.70 164.90

Oct 72.35 63.72 65.97 62.14 68.77 70.53 68.41

Nov 67.96 68.02 66.11 61.12 65.36 65.44 61.68

Dec 67.69 74.19 73.60 70.84 73.31 74.31 70.21

Annual 102.71 126.54 128.44 127.26 128.98 128.45 131.47

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

96

Table C-13 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point C

Table C-14 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point C

Table C-15 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point C

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.61 1.69 1.61 1.70 1.49 1.70 1.76

Feb 1.39 1.26 1.54 1.35 1.24 1.31 1.32

Mar 1.19 1.23 1.05 1.07 1.12 1.08 1.14

Apr 0.98 0.89 0.88 0.82 0.90 0.89 0.91

May 0.86 0.68 0.71 0.69 0.75 0.69 0.67

Jun 0.95 0.70 0.70 0.73 0.73 0.69 0.72

Jul 0.91 0.90 0.93 1.04 1.10 1.01 0.98

Aug 0.88 0.70 0.80 0.78 0.83 0.90 0.93

Sep 0.89 0.70 0.83 0.63 0.70 0.64 0.70

Oct 1.58 1.98 1.98 1.77 1.78 1.65 1.76

Nov 1.92 2.34 2.48 2.46 2.21 2.45 2.36

Dec 2.01 2.03 2.23 2.02 1.91 2.20 2.17

Annual 1.26 1.26 1.31 1.26 1.23 1.27 1.29

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.44 6.28 5.99 6.48 5.99 6.42 6.52

Feb 6.08 5.44 5.88 5.74 5.46 5.71 5.79

Mar 5.60 5.32 4.93 5.08 5.15 5.17 5.37

Apr 5.08 4.61 4.54 4.44 4.63 4.75 4.86

May 4.90 4.26 4.26 4.20 4.32 4.32 4.29

Jun 5.10 4.37 4.38 4.33 4.37 4.27 4.41

Jul 4.98 4.86 4.97 5.01 5.09 5.00 5.01

Aug 5.09 4.60 4.80 4.60 4.74 4.81 4.88

Sep 5.07 4.62 4.88 4.49 4.63 4.51 4.60

Oct 6.33 6.52 6.53 6.34 6.40 6.21 6.49

Nov 6.91 7.03 7.13 7.32 7.05 7.34 7.36

Dec 7.07 6.81 6.97 6.91 6.74 7.16 7.22

Annual 5.72 5.39 5.44 5.41 5.38 5.47 5.57

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 74.55 83.16 84.05 80.66 91.83 84.57 84.50

Feb 85.31 103.30 89.25 96.62 102.78 99.35 95.71

Mar 106.73 105.97 105.39 108.40 107.35 108.23 102.19

Apr 123.23 123.02 121.73 126.00 123.66 116.91 114.93

May 137.52 143.23 150.02 150.30 149.43 137.98 143.08

Jun 163.95 187.02 183.16 195.30 193.32 185.78 195.23

Jul 172.43 218.14 216.14 218.71 224.20 207.41 220.65

Aug 173.66 207.98 203.87 207.76 214.90 220.29 225.84

Sep 121.56 118.17 114.25 130.83 127.02 140.05 152.38

Oct 78.59 67.84 62.23 69.02 70.77 72.12 71.60

Nov 72.39 69.21 62.67 66.32 68.65 70.56 68.01

Dec 72.01 71.89 67.47 71.76 72.94 74.75 71.98

Annual 115.16 124.91 121.69 126.81 128.90 126.50 128.84

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

97

Table C-16 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point C1

Table C-17 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point C1

Table C-18 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.40 1.45 1.34 1.44 1.25 1.52 1.58

Feb 1.20 1.02 1.29 1.12 1.02 1.16 1.17

Mar 0.99 0.98 0.87 0.88 0.91 0.96 1.02

Apr 0.79 0.66 0.69 0.63 0.70 0.76 0.77

May 0.65 0.44 0.46 0.43 0.46 0.49 0.47

Jun 0.58 0.37 0.39 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.42

Jul 0.54 0.47 0.50 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.56

Aug 0.53 0.38 0.46 0.42 0.44 0.53 0.55

Sep 0.66 0.53 0.61 0.45 0.52 0.49 0.55

Oct 1.33 1.62 1.57 1.44 1.45 1.39 1.49

Nov 1.66 1.97 2.03 2.04 1.84 2.17 2.08

Dec 1.76 1.75 1.86 1.70 1.62 1.97 1.94

Annual 1.01 0.97 1.01 0.95 0.93 1.03 1.05

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.89 6.75 6.33 6.90 6.39 6.74 6.83

Feb 6.41 5.75 6.18 6.04 5.74 5.87 5.95

Mar 5.76 5.56 5.09 5.29 5.36 5.27 5.49

Apr 5.16 4.79 4.63 4.57 4.77 4.82 4.90

May 4.92 4.33 4.23 4.24 4.33 4.35 4.24

Jun 4.89 3.98 4.08 3.99 3.99 3.90 3.90

Jul 4.75 4.17 4.35 4.24 4.27 4.33 4.22

Aug 4.77 4.08 4.28 4.11 4.14 4.14 4.15

Sep 5.06 4.63 4.87 4.46 4.63 4.32 4.36

Oct 6.59 6.96 6.93 6.73 6.79 6.48 6.74

Nov 7.29 7.57 7.59 7.81 7.51 7.72 7.70

Dec 7.56 7.33 7.44 7.36 7.20 7.54 7.56

Annual 5.84 5.49 5.50 5.48 5.43 5.46 5.50

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 66.82 74.19 76.65 71.79 80.28 76.08 75.96

Feb 72.40 87.89 80.73 82.86 88.22 86.65 84.92

Mar 86.32 89.40 93.48 90.87 90.47 92.70 88.55

Apr 97.87 99.87 104.88 102.16 99.47 96.99 95.71

May 109.42 118.48 129.63 122.08 121.42 115.39 124.02

Jun 129.06 184.69 181.34 188.93 192.03 182.02 202.26

Jul 137.72 224.39 224.11 224.68 228.68 206.54 230.83

Aug 138.74 213.16 209.82 206.85 219.63 228.32 236.36

Sep 96.68 112.08 110.44 118.58 112.34 146.35 168.38

Oct 65.26 58.93 56.68 59.63 62.45 62.66 65.30

Nov 64.30 62.74 58.68 59.36 61.56 62.42 60.23

Dec 65.06 66.35 63.74 65.10 66.20 67.78 64.87

Annual 94.14 116.01 115.85 116.08 118.56 118.66 124.78

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

98

Table C-19 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point E

Table C-20 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point E

Table C-21 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point E

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.71 1.80 1.60 1.82 1.57 1.91 2.00

Feb 1.39 1.19 1.50 1.34 1.20 1.31 1.36

Mar 1.11 1.11 0.92 1.00 1.04 1.05 1.12

Apr 0.91 0.77 0.76 0.73 0.79 0.82 0.83

May 0.83 0.57 0.61 0.58 0.63 0.59 0.58

Jun 0.92 0.60 0.64 0.63 0.61 0.60 0.61

Jul 0.87 0.79 0.90 0.85 0.87 0.86 0.84

Aug 0.86 0.67 0.80 0.70 0.72 0.78 0.79

Sep 0.82 0.67 0.77 0.60 0.65 0.63 0.68

Oct 1.55 1.85 1.78 1.64 1.69 1.58 1.73

Nov 2.06 2.35 2.35 2.38 2.22 2.61 2.52

Dec 2.29 2.20 2.31 2.11 2.07 2.51 2.49

Annual 1.28 1.21 1.25 1.20 1.17 1.27 1.30

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.73 6.62 6.20 6.73 6.23 6.71 6.81

Feb 6.25 5.60 6.03 5.84 5.58 5.83 5.96

Mar 5.55 5.34 4.94 5.08 5.17 5.18 5.45

Apr 4.88 4.52 4.42 4.33 4.54 4.68 4.80

May 4.64 4.09 4.05 4.00 4.09 4.17 4.13

Jun 4.80 4.10 4.16 4.02 4.06 3.98 4.07

Jul 4.72 4.46 4.64 4.45 4.53 4.56 4.53

Aug 4.92 4.35 4.59 4.28 4.40 4.43 4.48

Sep 5.07 4.64 4.88 4.49 4.62 4.42 4.50

Oct 6.46 6.79 6.76 6.53 6.61 6.37 6.63

Nov 7.10 7.41 7.44 7.66 7.36 7.71 7.69

Dec 7.35 7.19 7.30 7.17 7.07 7.55 7.56

Annual 5.70 5.43 5.45 5.38 5.36 5.47 5.55

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 58.73 64.13 67.14 60.64 72.27 65.85 64.87

Feb 70.09 82.74 71.69 77.58 83.28 80.10 75.80

Mar 92.63 87.63 87.98 90.29 88.38 89.24 82.57

Apr 113.11 110.40 111.13 111.11 109.32 100.71 101.06

May 137.99 147.16 152.78 147.29 149.83 136.15 142.81

Jun 167.31 193.55 193.41 193.50 193.67 188.24 198.92

Jul 170.28 209.41 211.05 209.96 211.06 198.53 210.24

Aug 172.35 208.49 206.42 204.06 209.10 209.72 216.54

Sep 121.75 141.18 129.87 144.77 137.86 153.44 172.74

Oct 67.06 53.06 48.73 53.91 56.93 50.20 60.02

Nov 55.32 51.80 47.40 49.62 49.92 52.15 48.92

Dec 54.73 54.33 51.48 53.25 54.39 56.95 53.38

Annual 106.78 116.99 114.92 116.33 118.00 115.11 118.99

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

99

Table C-22 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point E1

Table C-23 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point E1

Table C-24 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.55 1.66 1.51 1.68 1.45 1.78 1.86

Feb 1.26 1.09 1.43 1.23 1.11 1.22 1.27

Mar 0.98 1.02 0.89 0.92 0.96 0.98 1.05

Apr 0.77 0.68 0.71 0.65 0.72 0.76 0.77

May 0.64 0.46 0.52 0.46 0.50 0.50 0.49

Jun 0.63 0.45 0.51 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.47

Jul 0.60 0.60 0.72 0.62 0.65 0.64 0.63

Aug 0.61 0.52 0.66 0.53 0.55 0.59 0.61

Sep 0.66 0.57 0.70 0.51 0.56 0.54 0.57

Oct 1.37 1.68 1.68 1.49 1.54 1.45 1.58

Nov 1.85 2.13 2.21 2.18 2.03 2.40 2.33

Dec 2.08 2.03 2.19 1.94 1.91 2.33 2.31

Annual 1.08 1.07 1.14 1.06 1.04 1.14 1.16

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 7.01 6.81 6.28 6.91 6.40 6.88 6.97

Feb 6.52 5.75 6.11 5.98 5.70 5.95 6.07

Mar 5.74 5.44 4.97 5.17 5.25 5.25 5.53

Apr 4.99 4.55 4.37 4.36 4.57 4.72 4.82

May 4.66 4.04 3.94 3.93 4.01 4.14 4.07

Jun 4.68 3.82 3.89 3.75 3.81 3.75 3.77

Jul 4.59 4.05 4.19 4.00 4.05 4.17 4.09

Aug 4.81 4.03 4.24 3.98 4.05 4.07 4.09

Sep 5.15 4.61 4.79 4.44 4.60 4.33 4.38

Oct 6.73 6.95 6.82 6.68 6.76 6.49 6.75

Nov 7.37 7.61 7.53 7.85 7.52 7.87 7.83

Dec 7.62 7.38 7.39 7.33 7.23 7.71 7.70

Annual 5.82 5.42 5.38 5.36 5.33 5.44 5.51

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 58.39 63.62 66.09 60.07 70.81 65.11 64.29

Feb 66.87 79.44 70.50 74.86 80.72 77.72 74.18

Mar 84.63 84.05 86.48 86.87 85.26 86.61 80.55

Apr 101.41 104.47 107.81 105.41 103.76 96.40 97.23

May 121.70 138.15 147.53 138.67 141.52 129.07 136.78

Jun 152.86 193.00 192.97 190.67 191.05 184.43 199.71

Jul 158.68 210.18 212.77 210.06 211.52 197.10 210.23

Aug 157.92 208.12 204.27 200.42 206.89 207.54 214.73

Sep 105.88 129.39 118.21 135.21 126.83 147.26 163.04

Oct 57.31 50.42 45.89 49.17 52.09 47.90 55.17

Nov 53.43 51.24 45.91 48.47 49.78 51.31 48.80

Dec 55.19 54.91 50.82 53.17 54.90 56.78 53.70

Annual 97.86 113.92 112.44 112.76 114.59 112.27 116.53

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

100

Table C-25 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point G

Table C-26 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point G

Table C-27 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point G

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.83 1.79 1.54 1.79 1.58 2.00 2.05

Feb 1.40 1.13 1.43 1.29 1.17 1.27 1.38

Mar 1.02 0.99 0.82 0.91 0.94 0.97 1.04

Apr 0.74 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.64 0.67 0.70

May 0.68 0.49 0.54 0.47 0.52 0.49 0.51

Jun 0.86 0.63 0.68 0.61 0.62 0.57 0.62

Jul 0.86 0.84 0.97 0.80 0.84 0.83 0.83

Aug 0.93 0.77 0.92 0.73 0.77 0.78 0.79

Sep 0.80 0.68 0.76 0.64 0.67 0.65 0.68

Oct 1.36 1.52 1.50 1.36 1.44 1.32 1.48

Nov 1.98 1.96 2.00 1.98 1.94 2.23 2.26

Dec 2.38 2.12 2.15 1.97 2.05 2.48 2.46

Annual 1.24 1.13 1.16 1.09 1.10 1.19 1.23

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.53 6.60 6.17 6.69 6.19 6.75 6.83

Feb 6.12 5.54 5.96 5.79 5.49 5.78 5.86

Mar 5.42 5.24 4.88 4.98 5.02 5.05 5.36

Apr 4.73 4.45 4.28 4.22 4.36 4.60 4.69

May 4.44 3.91 3.93 3.80 3.82 4.01 3.99

Jun 4.70 4.07 4.13 3.89 4.02 3.83 3.98

Jul 4.71 4.43 4.60 4.29 4.35 4.33 4.36

Aug 5.05 4.41 4.64 4.25 4.38 4.29 4.33

Sep 5.10 4.64 4.91 4.52 4.65 4.41 4.48

Oct 6.42 6.76 6.77 6.51 6.59 6.30 6.59

Nov 6.95 7.40 7.46 7.65 7.36 7.69 7.71

Dec 7.21 7.19 7.29 7.11 7.05 7.58 7.54

Annual 5.61 5.39 5.42 5.31 5.27 5.39 5.48

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 46.19 50.42 51.89 45.51 55.94 50.92 49.07

Feb 55.39 65.06 54.84 60.25 65.24 62.56 58.63

Mar 74.74 69.39 70.45 73.86 71.67 71.97 66.19

Apr 100.99 101.63 101.57 97.94 98.29 89.89 95.50

May 141.39 165.18 171.84 153.42 167.86 146.54 157.84

Jun 188.05 204.07 203.17 196.53 201.68 197.76 204.14

Jul 190.35 204.69 205.89 203.53 204.49 198.30 204.36

Aug 193.74 206.01 204.96 200.13 205.36 202.46 205.17

Sep 147.83 167.29 161.27 171.34 159.07 166.57 177.30

Oct 58.30 52.39 52.85 50.82 49.64 43.26 55.85

Nov 43.40 39.13 36.21 36.38 37.81 38.42 35.71

Dec 42.60 41.84 39.19 39.78 41.37 43.08 39.94

Annual 106.91 113.93 112.84 110.79 113.20 109.31 112.47

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

101

Table C-28 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point G1

Table C-29 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point G1

Table C-30 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.64 1.67 1.48 1.69 1.47 1.87 1.94

Feb 1.28 1.07 1.38 1.22 1.10 1.21 1.30

Mar 0.94 0.95 0.81 0.87 0.91 0.94 1.02

Apr 0.69 0.59 0.59 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.69

May 0.59 0.42 0.47 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.45

Jun 0.64 0.48 0.54 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.49

Jul 0.63 0.64 0.76 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.66

Aug 0.68 0.59 0.72 0.56 0.59 0.62 0.63

Sep 0.67 0.59 0.68 0.53 0.57 0.56 0.58

Oct 1.28 1.49 1.49 1.33 1.40 1.31 1.46

Nov 1.84 1.93 1.99 1.96 1.89 2.21 2.22

Dec 2.17 2.00 2.10 1.89 1.93 2.37 2.35

Annual 1.09 1.03 1.08 1.01 1.00 1.11 1.15

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.82 6.81 6.28 6.89 6.37 6.90 6.98

Feb 6.40 5.72 6.07 5.96 5.64 5.92 6.00

Mar 5.66 5.37 4.93 5.10 5.14 5.15 5.45

Apr 4.88 4.53 4.30 4.29 4.44 4.65 4.74

May 4.52 3.99 3.93 3.85 3.87 4.07 4.03

Jun 4.64 4.00 4.06 3.85 3.98 3.78 3.88

Jul 4.63 4.31 4.42 4.16 4.21 4.21 4.20

Aug 4.95 4.33 4.51 4.18 4.29 4.17 4.21

Sep 5.18 4.70 4.93 4.57 4.71 4.42 4.48

Oct 6.67 6.94 6.86 6.68 6.77 6.45 6.74

Nov 7.23 7.60 7.57 7.83 7.53 7.84 7.83

Dec 7.49 7.39 7.41 7.30 7.24 7.73 7.69

Annual 5.76 5.47 5.44 5.39 5.35 5.44 5.52

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 51.33 54.81 55.16 50.29 60.48 55.06 53.73

Feb 58.92 68.67 59.13 63.68 69.36 66.17 62.97

Mar 76.33 72.58 74.16 76.52 74.93 75.26 69.72

Apr 97.64 99.19 101.25 97.17 97.84 89.60 94.11

May 129.48 150.74 158.45 143.68 154.91 135.38 146.99

Jun 174.97 194.76 194.85 188.53 191.24 189.64 198.00

Jul 179.04 198.51 200.88 197.44 198.54 192.50 200.27

Aug 180.12 199.22 198.18 193.33 197.54 197.35 201.29

Sep 126.63 147.52 136.04 154.55 139.31 151.04 163.60

Oct 54.77 46.09 43.71 45.38 46.47 41.45 47.80

Nov 46.51 42.70 38.49 40.24 41.82 42.21 40.14

Dec 47.45 46.59 43.01 44.29 46.32 47.26 44.58

Annual 101.93 110.11 108.61 107.93 109.90 106.91 110.27

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

102

Table C-31 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point K

Table C-32 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point K

Table C-33 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point K

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.73 1.29 1.13 1.20 1.20 1.45 1.39

Feb 1.42 0.96 1.13 1.04 0.98 1.02 1.09

Mar 1.07 0.83 0.72 0.78 0.81 0.83 0.80

Apr 0.71 0.46 0.44 0.45 0.50 0.49 0.48

May 0.55 0.36 0.41 0.34 0.39 0.34 0.37

Jun 0.65 0.52 0.53 0.44 0.49 0.42 0.48

Jul 0.65 0.66 0.71 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.63

Aug 0.75 0.67 0.72 0.57 0.61 0.58 0.61

Sep 0.64 0.57 0.61 0.53 0.54 0.48 0.54

Oct 0.88 0.79 0.76 0.71 0.77 0.70 0.75

Nov 1.43 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.06 1.19 1.18

Dec 1.84 1.33 1.31 1.18 1.31 1.57 1.49

Annual 1.03 0.79 0.79 0.74 0.77 0.80 0.82

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.45 6.18 5.60 6.22 5.82 6.44 6.61

Feb 5.72 5.01 5.42 5.27 5.07 5.26 5.45

Mar 4.98 4.74 4.40 4.49 4.66 4.61 4.94

Apr 4.24 4.11 3.91 3.96 4.07 4.27 4.36

May 3.91 3.46 3.49 3.45 3.40 3.68 3.61

Jun 3.95 3.54 3.53 3.44 3.57 3.49 3.52

Jul 4.02 3.89 3.98 3.76 3.76 3.77 3.89

Aug 4.21 3.98 4.09 3.80 3.87 3.88 3.99

Sep 4.28 4.09 4.15 3.92 4.03 3.95 3.98

Oct 5.66 6.01 6.03 5.84 6.01 5.77 6.15

Nov 6.46 6.64 6.77 6.92 6.75 7.05 7.36

Dec 7.10 6.77 6.76 6.58 6.59 7.14 7.24

Annual 5.08 4.87 4.85 4.80 4.80 4.94 5.09

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 79.65 78.09 79.51 76.69 80.76 78.79 79.75

Feb 82.74 86.19 80.31 83.46 86.04 85.29 84.91

Mar 90.66 89.00 92.43 92.77 91.44 91.13 94.82

Apr 111.70 118.06 120.74 106.16 111.66 108.54 120.69

May 158.45 183.50 193.64 164.24 187.21 164.21 177.55

Jun 208.91 214.11 214.97 201.71 210.08 199.66 208.94

Jul 207.51 205.14 204.39 203.53 205.92 196.60 202.82

Aug 212.96 206.21 202.65 199.69 205.89 196.44 198.29

Sep 189.57 194.66 200.80 200.86 192.05 186.42 195.25

Oct 112.47 117.67 109.92 118.00 105.68 102.33 110.52

Nov 82.94 79.48 79.95 78.72 78.44 75.66 76.77

Dec 78.91 74.29 73.90 73.57 74.58 75.29 76.02

Annual 134.71 137.20 137.77 133.28 135.81 130.03 135.53

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

103

Table C-34 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point L

Table C-35 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point L

Table C-36 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point L

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 2.33 1.86 1.54 1.79 1.67 2.10 2.09

Feb 1.74 1.18 1.45 1.34 1.22 1.31 1.45

Mar 1.20 0.97 0.81 0.89 0.94 0.95 0.99

Apr 0.76 0.54 0.49 0.51 0.55 0.58 0.60

May 0.67 0.46 0.49 0.41 0.44 0.44 0.47

Jun 1.05 0.72 0.71 0.58 0.66 0.56 0.66

Jul 1.07 0.86 0.94 0.76 0.78 0.75 0.84

Aug 1.27 0.87 0.94 0.75 0.82 0.76 0.80

Sep 1.01 0.79 0.86 0.76 0.77 0.70 0.76

Oct 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.18 1.26 1.14 1.29

Nov 2.04 1.70 1.72 1.69 1.68 1.88 1.98

Dec 2.69 2.05 2.00 1.82 1.99 2.37 2.37

Annual 1.43 1.11 1.11 1.04 1.06 1.13 1.19

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.56 6.51 6.14 6.64 6.18 6.76 6.86

Feb 5.92 5.42 5.95 5.75 5.48 5.71 5.83

Mar 5.24 5.19 4.89 4.97 5.07 5.04 5.43

Apr 4.62 4.46 4.35 4.23 4.43 4.63 4.74

May 4.29 3.76 3.85 3.69 3.68 3.92 3.88

Jun 4.53 3.92 3.93 3.69 3.86 3.72 3.83

Jul 4.56 4.21 4.37 4.05 4.05 4.02 4.16

Aug 4.90 4.29 4.41 4.07 4.19 4.08 4.18

Sep 4.84 4.46 4.65 4.34 4.46 4.24 4.33

Oct 6.21 6.57 6.67 6.37 6.50 6.19 6.50

Nov 6.78 7.30 7.50 7.65 7.36 7.68 7.76

Dec 7.22 7.15 7.32 7.11 7.02 7.61 7.55

Annual 5.47 5.27 5.34 5.21 5.19 5.30 5.42

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 39.47 41.20 43.86 36.57 43.93 40.58 38.29

Feb 47.30 53.44 43.30 49.09 51.61 51.31 45.98

Mar 61.12 55.54 59.03 60.12 57.20 58.03 55.90

Apr 86.85 98.40 94.83 84.29 84.61 85.90 95.16

May 151.46 186.97 200.06 164.14 189.19 165.78 182.63

Jun 220.08 226.07 225.14 210.49 224.03 209.43 223.82

Jul 221.36 218.59 216.43 213.97 218.53 207.70 216.00

Aug 227.90 220.66 215.80 211.62 219.42 209.08 212.39

Sep 199.08 205.83 217.98 213.35 200.68 198.63 212.31

Oct 91.69 102.87 92.56 96.70 81.74 78.94 87.33

Nov 47.06 42.47 40.33 33.23 36.41 31.71 30.26

Dec 37.55 33.40 31.26 32.51 33.45 34.31 31.91

Annual 119.24 123.79 123.38 117.17 120.07 114.28 119.33

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

104

Table C-37 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point L1

Table C-38 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point L1

Table C-39 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.75 1.63 1.43 1.61 1.48 1.83 1.84

Feb 1.36 1.08 1.36 1.22 1.12 1.19 1.30

Mar 0.98 0.94 0.81 0.87 0.91 0.92 0.97

Apr 0.67 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.59 0.60 0.63

May 0.57 0.44 0.50 0.41 0.46 0.43 0.46

Jun 0.73 0.60 0.66 0.55 0.58 0.51 0.57

Jul 0.74 0.76 0.89 0.70 0.73 0.70 0.74

Aug 0.84 0.75 0.88 0.67 0.72 0.69 0.70

Sep 0.73 0.65 0.73 0.62 0.63 0.59 0.63

Oct 1.13 1.21 1.22 1.10 1.18 1.08 1.19

Nov 1.71 1.63 1.67 1.63 1.62 1.83 1.86

Dec 2.13 1.85 1.88 1.70 1.81 2.16 2.12

Annual 1.11 1.01 1.05 0.97 0.99 1.04 1.08

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.47 6.52 6.05 6.62 6.15 6.73 6.84

Feb 5.94 5.43 5.84 5.71 5.43 5.71 5.81

Mar 5.31 5.16 4.78 4.90 4.98 4.99 5.33

Apr 4.64 4.43 4.21 4.18 4.34 4.58 4.66

May 4.26 3.73 3.77 3.66 3.63 3.92 3.87

Jun 4.34 3.82 3.87 3.66 3.80 3.67 3.79

Jul 4.37 4.18 4.32 4.02 4.04 4.06 4.16

Aug 4.67 4.22 4.39 4.04 4.14 4.10 4.19

Sep 4.82 4.46 4.66 4.35 4.46 4.30 4.37

Oct 6.35 6.72 6.66 6.47 6.58 6.31 6.66

Nov 6.89 7.28 7.34 7.55 7.30 7.62 7.72

Dec 7.21 7.14 7.17 7.04 6.98 7.55 7.53

Annual 5.44 5.26 5.26 5.19 5.15 5.30 5.41

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 51.91 55.36 55.70 51.75 59.33 55.20 54.52

Feb 58.05 66.95 58.26 62.74 67.12 64.27 62.33

Mar 71.58 69.94 73.59 75.48 73.43 72.76 71.26

Apr 96.49 104.89 105.76 97.41 101.01 94.18 103.41

May 147.99 177.64 186.61 162.22 183.32 157.91 170.50

Jun 204.32 215.43 215.84 205.65 213.35 203.79 211.94

Jul 205.78 211.43 211.71 209.94 212.31 203.98 209.53

Aug 209.32 212.82 210.39 205.62 212.04 205.30 206.84

Sep 170.46 183.95 189.14 188.37 176.70 175.64 186.37

Oct 74.57 70.75 67.66 73.95 67.22 59.33 68.10

Nov 51.27 46.89 46.47 45.53 47.10 45.74 45.00

Dec 50.40 48.77 46.81 47.33 48.80 49.24 48.04

Annual 116.01 122.07 122.33 118.83 121.81 115.61 119.82

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

105

Table C-40 Annual and monthly mean significant wave height for three-time slices at Point O

Table C-41 Annual and monthly mean wave period for three-time slices at Point O

Table C-42 Annual and monthly mean wave direction for three-time slices at Point O

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 1.80 1.27 1.06 1.18 1.20 1.51 1.35

Feb 1.37 0.91 1.09 1.02 0.94 1.01 1.08

Mar 0.99 0.72 0.61 0.69 0.70 0.76 0.70

Apr 0.63 0.40 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.39

May 0.55 0.33 0.38 0.29 0.35 0.34 0.34

Jun 0.66 0.47 0.47 0.41 0.47 0.41 0.46

Jul 0.70 0.64 0.66 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.65

Aug 0.82 0.65 0.70 0.57 0.61 0.62 0.66

Sep 0.69 0.56 0.59 0.52 0.53 0.48 0.54

Oct 0.84 0.73 0.67 0.64 0.68 0.62 0.66

Nov 1.44 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.90 1.03 1.01

Dec 1.94 1.25 1.18 1.08 1.23 1.50 1.41

Annual 1.04 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.72 0.77 0.77

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Present 1981-2000Month

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 6.47 6.05 5.53 5.98 5.71 6.27 6.36

Feb 5.81 5.10 5.43 5.27 5.10 5.22 5.40

Mar 5.07 4.85 4.54 4.56 4.79 4.65 5.01

Apr 4.30 4.14 4.00 4.08 4.24 4.32 4.35

May 3.98 3.48 3.50 3.49 3.44 3.64 3.62

Jun 4.21 3.53 3.56 3.53 3.57 3.56 3.54

Jul 4.23 3.86 3.91 3.77 3.79 3.81 3.89

Aug 4.46 3.91 4.09 3.85 3.91 3.94 4.02

Sep 4.33 3.94 4.01 3.88 3.96 3.93 3.91

Oct 5.28 5.37 5.46 5.30 5.50 5.29 5.62

Nov 6.02 6.26 6.24 6.35 6.37 6.52 6.88

Dec 6.79 6.42 6.43 6.15 6.22 6.70 6.74

Annual 5.08 4.74 4.73 4.68 4.72 4.82 4.94

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

NCEP/CFSR ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1 ECHAM5 GFDL CM2.1

Jan 68.00 71.29 71.89 66.38 70.13 68.74 68.67

Feb 71.91 75.11 70.58 72.91 72.69 75.56 73.05

Mar 79.96 77.59 80.17 79.66 76.77 78.78 85.39

Apr 109.67 116.38 115.52 94.34 94.84 97.70 116.25

May 165.72 179.39 200.77 156.11 184.31 163.65 180.24

Jun 213.22 211.19 214.78 198.01 204.04 193.30 200.55

Jul 206.55 190.47 191.78 193.89 192.29 184.28 192.55

Aug 218.80 193.15 188.38 190.25 197.52 183.12 185.17

Sep 210.86 202.68 211.62 215.52 211.79 197.10 206.31

Oct 142.43 158.75 143.52 149.35 125.70 127.07 130.99

Nov 92.09 77.00 91.67 82.90 74.48 66.79 67.73

Dec 64.40 64.08 65.07 63.93 64.22 64.62 64.44

Annual 136.97 134.76 137.15 130.27 130.73 125.06 130.94

Projection 2041-2060 Projection 2081-2100Month

Present 1981-2000

106

Figure C-1 Present and projected wave parameters at Hon Dau

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Hon Dau

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

107

Figure C-2 Present and projected wave parameters at Hon Ngu

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Hon Ngu

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

108

Figure C-3 Present and projected wave parameters at Point A

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point A

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point A

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point A

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

109

Figure C-4 Present and projected wave parameters at Point B

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point B

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point B

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point B

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

110

Figure C-5 Present and projected wave parameters at Point C

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point C

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point C

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point C

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

111

Figure C-6 Present and projected wave parameters at Point C1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point C1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

112

Figure C-7 Present and projected wave parameters at Point E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point E

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point E

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point E

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

113

Figure C-8 Present and projected wave parameters at Point E1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point E1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

114

Figure C-9 Present and projected wave parameters at Point G

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point G

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

115

Figure C-10 Present and projected wave parameters at Point G1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point G1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

116

Figure C-11 Present and projected wave parameters at Point K

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point K

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point K

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point K

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

117

Figure C-12 Present and projected wave parameters at Point L

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point L

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point L

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point L

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

118

Figure C-13 Present and projected wave parameters at Point L1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point L1

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

119

Figure C-14 Present and projected wave parameters at Point O

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave H

eig

ht,

Hm

0 (

m)

Month

Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height (Hm0) at Point O

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wave P

eri

od

, T

m0 (

s)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Period (Tm0) at Point O

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0

45

90

135

180

225

270

315

360

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean

Wave D

irecti

on

, m

(d

eg

)

Month

Monthly Mean Wave Direction (m) at Point O

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

120

Figure C-15 Change of wave parameters at Hon Dau

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

121

Figure C-16 Change of wave parameters at Hon Ngu

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

122

Figure C-17 Change of wave parameters at Point A

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

123

Figure C-18 Change of wave parameters at Point B

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

124

Figure C-19 Change of wave parameters at Point C

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

125

Figure C-20 Change of wave parameters at Point C1

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

126

Figure C-21 Change of wave parameters at Point E

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

127

Figure C-22 Change of wave parameters at Point E1

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

128

Figure C-23 Change of wave parameters at Point G

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

129

Figure C-24 Change of wave parameters at Point G1

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

130

Figure C-25 Change of wave parameters at Point K

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

131

Figure C-26 Change of wave parameters at Point L

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

132

Figure C-27 Change of wave parameters at Point L1

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

133

Figure C-28 Change of wave parameters at Point O

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆H

s (

m)

∆Hs : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Hs : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆T

s (

s)

∆Ts : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆Ts : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec∆θ

(de

g)

∆θ : Average (2041to2060) - (1981to2000) ∆θ : Average (2081to2100) - (1981to2000)

134

135

Appendix D

Result of Probability Future Wave Climate

136

Figure D-1 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Hon Dau

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

137

Figure D-2 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Hon Ngu

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

138

Figure D-3 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point A

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

139

Figure D-4 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point B

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

140

Figure D-5 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point C

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

141

Figure D-6 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point C1

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

142

Figure D-7 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point E

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

143

Figure D-8 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point E1

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

144

Figure D-9 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point G

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

145

Figure D-10 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point G1

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

146

Figure D-11 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point K

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

147

Figure D-12 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point L

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

148

Figure D-13 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point L1

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

149

Figure D-14 Probability distribution of present and future wave climate at Point O

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

p(H

m0)

Hm0 (m)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

p(T

m0)

Tm0 (s)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

p(θ

m)

θm (deg)

NCEP/CFSR 1981-2000

ECHAM5 1981-2000

ECHAM5 2041-2060

ECHAM5 2081-2100

GFDL CM2.1 1981-2000

GFDL CM2.1 2041-2060

GFDL CM2.1 2081-2100

150

Figure D-15 Change of probability distribution at Hon Dau

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

151

Figure D-16 Change of probability distribution at Hon Ngu

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

152

Figure D-17 Change of probability distribution at Point A

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

153

Figure D-18 Change of probability distribution at Point B

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

154

Figure D-19 Change of probability distribution at Point C

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

155

Figure D-20 Change of probability distribution at Point C1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

156

Figure D-21 Change of probability distribution at Point E

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

157

Figure D-22 Change of probability distribution at Point E1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

158

Figure D-23 Change of probability distribution at Point G

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

159

Figure D-24 Change of probability distribution at Point G1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

160

Figure D-25 Change of probability distribution at Point K

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

161

Figure D-26 Change of probability distribution at Point L

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

162

Figure D-27 Change of probability distribution at Point L1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

163

Figure D-28 Change of probability distribution at Point O

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.20

-0.16

-0.12

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

∆p

(Hm

0)

Hm0 (m)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

∆p

(Tm

0)

Tm0 (s)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2041-2060 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0 45 90 135 180 225 270 315 360

∆p

(θm

)

θm (deg)

2081-2100 Average

ECHAM5

GFDL CM2.1