variations and changes in weather and climate extremes
TRANSCRIPT
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 1
Variations and Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes
Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D. Director, National Climatic Data Center Chair, U.S. Global Change Research Program April 2013
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 2
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Outline • Motivation
– Billion-dollar Disasters
• State of the Science – U.S. Climate Extremes Index – Heat and Cold Waves – Precipitation/flooding and drought – Snowstorms – Tornadoes
• Implications
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 3
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC): Where are we? Who are we? What do we do?
• 160 Federal Employees ̶ Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii,
Maryland, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin
• 153 NCDC Headquarter Contractors
• 6 Regional Climate Centers • 2 Cooperative Institutes
Protecting the Past… Revealing the Future
NCDC Headquarters
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 4
The Nation Is Climate-Conscious… for Good Reason
U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: 1980 – 2011 Drought and Heatwaves
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
Winter Storms and Crop Freezes
Flooding Wildfires Severe Local Storms
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 5
Current State of Scientific Knowledge
Series of four workshops/papers for BAMS
Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Storm Statistics: State of Knowledge. Kunkel, K.E. et al., 2012, BAMS.
Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge. Peterson, T.C. et al., 2013, BAMS.
Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Extreme Winds, Waves, and Extratropical Storms along the Coasts: State of Knowledge. Vose, R.S. et al., in review BAMS.
CMIP5 Climate Model Analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States. Wuebbles, D., et al., in review BAMS
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 6
U.S. Climate Extremes Index • Includes measures of:
– Wetness/drought – Extreme
precipitation – Dry/wet days,
extremes – Extreme
temperature – Hurricanes
• The 2012 U.S. Climate Extremes Index value of 39.47 is the 2nd-largest of the metric’s period of record (since 1910)
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 7
What’s Driving the Increase Since the 1970s?
Extremes in Maximum
Temperature
All graphs based on annual data
Extremes in Minimum Temperature
Drought Severity
and Water
Surplus
Extremes in 1-Day Heavy Precipitation
NOAA U.S. Climate Extremes Index http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 8
Heat Waves and Cold Waves
Peterson, T. C. et al., 2013. Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods and Drought in the United States: State of Knowledge. BAMS.
Standardized 4-day heat/cold wave index by decade.
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 9
1-Day Heavy Precipitation Events Percent of the U.S. with much above normal 1-day heavy precipitation (>50.8mm)
Annual (Jan-Dec) 1910-2011
• A statistically significant increase in extremes NOAA U.S. Climate Extremes Index http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 10
Flooding and Precipitation
Regional similarities between trends of annual precipitation, droughts, and extremes of river flooding
River-Flow Trends in Annual Maximum: 85-127 years ending 2008
Trends in Total Annual Precipitation: 1909-2008
Peterson, T. C. et al., 2013.
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 11
Drought
• Widespread persistent drought – 1930s (Central and Northern Great Plains, Northwest, Great Lakes) – 1950s (Southern Plains, Southwest), 1980s (West, Southeast) – First decade of the 21st century (West, Southeast)
Trends (% per century) • 1900 to 2011: -0.1% • 1930 to 2011: -10.0% • 1971 to 2011: +31.6%
Peterson, T. C. et al., 2013.
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 12
Extreme Snowstorms
• Would changes in temperature and precipitation favor more or fewer extreme snowstorms?
• For the top 50 snowstorms during unusually warm, cool, dry and wet seasons, it varies: – E.g. Southern Plains much
snowier when cool – Northern Plains much
snowier when wet NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 13
Tornadoes & Convective Storms • Although some
ingredients that are favorable for severe thunderstorms have increased over the years, others have not
• Overall, changes in the frequency of environments favorable for severe convective storms have not been statistically significant
Kunkel, K.E., et al., 2012. BAMS.
Squires, M.F. et al., unpublished work
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 14
Summary
• Widely varying suitability of our data and physical understanding of various extreme events
• Positive correlation between detection and understanding
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Managing Our Planet April 10, 2013 15
Questions?
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