climate change, extreme weather events and international ......climate change, extreme weather...
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events and
International Migration*
Milan, 23 September 2010 *This research has been conducted within the CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment) project funded by the European Commission Contract No 036961 GOCE.
Nicola Coniglio and Giovanni Pesce
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
(FEEM) and University of Bari
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 1
1. Road Map
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 2
2. Climate change and migration: what are the links?
? ?
in quality of life in individuals’
economic
opportunities
Main potential
changes ( ) in
economic system:
- in factors’
endowments and
productivities => in
factor rewards => in
prices of goods and services;
Change in
climatic variables Effects on price and
quantities of
productive
resources (K,L,
environment)
Migration
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 3
3. What do we know?
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 4
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 5
Key insights from existing studies
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 6
4. Empirical Methodology
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 7
5. The data
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 8
Country X distribution of climatic anomalies
A A C B
positive
anomalies
negative
anomalies
Identifying climate shocks (1)
For all 165 (migration) sending countries we compute (i) the long-term
mean of precipitations and temperatures and (ii) the main features of climatic anomalies’ distribution (StDev, 90th and 10th percentiles, kurtosis,
skewness)
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 9
Gabon
Precipitations:
skewness: -0,97
kurtosis (excess): 2,46
Bangladesh
Precipitations:
skewness: 0,63
kurtosis (excess): 0,60
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 10
Identifying climate shocks (2)
Climatic variables (precipitation/temperature) employed in the
analysis:
- absolute level;
- anomalies wrt countries’ mean values (absolute value / percentage
value);
- positive (negative) anomalies;
- squared values of anomalies (non linear effects);
- extreme anomalies (above a certain threshold; 1 StDev, 90th and 10th
percentiles);
- positive (negative) extreme anomalies;
Time dimension. For all the above variables we consider the anomalies
at lag -1, -3 and -5 (mean and cumulated values) .
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Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events
and International Labour Migration 11
6. Methodological constraints
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6. Estimation results: first step
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and International Labour Migration 13
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and International Labour Migration 14
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and International Labour Migration 15
……(baseline vars omitted)……
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and International Labour Migration 16
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……(baseline vars omitted)……
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and International Labour Migration 18
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and International Labour Migration 19
11. Some conclusive remarks
Does climate change affect international migration flows?
=> Yes….but under certain conditions (low level of development; established
international migration networks; poor irrigation systems);
evidence of heterogeneous & non-linear effects => predicting future
scenario is a difficult task given the uncertainties on future climate scenario;
How strong is the link? elasticity of migration flows to climate shocks are
non-trivial for more vulnerable countries. Hence evidence on past shocks
suggests that we should expect additional inflows into OECD countries as a
consequence of adverse climatic shocks
IMPORTANT: need to investigate the effects of climate shocks on internal
displacement (urbanization) and South-South migration (which we are not
able to investigate in this study
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