Climate Change Law and Policy After Cancún

Rónán Kennedy

24 March 2011

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Climate Change

•  Human activity leads to emission of gases –  Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide

•  Gases alter the climate system •  Global temperature is increasing •  Likely adverse effects on

–  human health –  biodiversity –  ecological productivity

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Regulatory Issues

•  Emissions unavoidable by-product of economic activity •  Still large stocks of fossil fuels remaining •  Atmosphere is a ‘global commons’

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Likely Impact on Ireland:

–  Changes in rainfall patterns –  Warmer summers and winters –  Changes in growing season –  River flooding may increase –  Sea level rises

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Likely Resulting Costs

•  Obvious impact on population centres •  Damage to infrastructure •  Impacts on farming? •  Increased need for irrigation

–  balanced by new market opportunities?

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•  UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) –  Purpose: stabilize “greenhouse gas concentrations in

the atmosphere at a level which would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (Article 2)

–  Opened for signature at UNCED in 1992, in force 1994 •  Kyoto Protocol (1997)

–  US and Australia refused to ratify –  Europe coaxed Russia into ratifying in 2004

•  Policies and measures to reduce emissions •  Aggregate emissions reduced

–  by at least 5% below 1990 levels –  in the commitment period 2008 to 2012

Kyoto “Flexible Mechanisms”

–  Emissions trading (cap-and-trade) •  No legal limit to amount purchased (Bonn)

–  Joint implementation •  Projects shared between developed countries

–  Clean Development Mechanism •  Projects in developing country but funded by developed

country

•  MOP-1 in Montreal, November 2005 –  Focus on dialogue for the future

•  MOP-2 in Nairobi, November 2006 –  Not very productive

•  MOP-3 in Bali, December 2007 –  Agreed “roadmap” to December 2009 for post-2012 regime

•  MOP-4 in Poznan, 2008 –  No significant breakthroughs

•  MOP-5 in Copenhagen, 2009 •  MOP-6 in Cancún, 2010

Preliminary work for Copenhagen Conference

•  Two tracks (ad hoc working groups): –  Long-term Cooperative Action (AGW-LCA) –  Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)

•  Collectively – “The Bali Roadmap”

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The “Copenhagen Accord”, 2009

•  Emission reductions by Annex I countries •  Mitigation actions by non-Annex I countries •  “Copenhagen Green Climate Fund” •  To be assessed by 2015

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MOP-6, Cancún, Mexico (Nov-Dec 2010)

•  Positive outcomes –  Approved “Accord” –  Established “Adaptation Framework”/“Committee” –  “Green Climate Fund” (with pledges)

•  Shift from “top-down” to “bottom-up” approach?

•  Procedural and substantive challenges:

–  Unwieldy procedures

–  North/South suspicions

–  Ideological grandstanding

–  Need for consensus

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US: Application of Clean Air Act

•  Massachusetts v EPA •  National Fuel Efficiency Policy •  Tailoring Rule •  Regional voluntary cap-and-trade systems

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US: Legislative Proposals

•  American Clean Energy and Security Bill (Waxman-Markey) •  Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Bill (Kerry-Boxer) •  No new legislation expected

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EU Response

•  Negotiation of a ‘bubble’ for emissions •  Overall target: reduction of 8% •  Irish target: increase of 13% •  EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) •  “20/20/20” target:

–  by 2020, –  20% emissions reduction, –  20% use of renewables

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•  Directive 2003/87/EC •  Two periods: 2005-2007 & 2008-2012 •  Cap-and-trade system •  Applies to some industrial activities (energy, ferrous metals,

mineral industry, etc.) •  Allowances granted by governments, based on National

Allocation Plan (NAP) –  2005-2007: at least 95% free –  2008-2012: at least 90% free

ETS Penalties

•  30 April each year: –  2005-2007: €40/tonne –  2008-2012: €100/tonne

•  Linking Directive (2004/101/EC) –  Connected to JI/CDM

EU: Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Issues

•  Over-allocation of allowances •  Carbon leakage? •  Lack of real impact? •  Security issues

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•  Directive 1999/94/EC on consumer information on car economy and CO2 emissions (under review)

•  Decision 1753/00/EC on CO2 monitoring for new cars •  Regulation 443/2009/EC setting emission performance

standards for new passenger cars •  Directive 2001/77/EC on renewable energy sources •  Directive 2009/28 on renewable energy •  Directive 2003/30/EC on biofuels (to be replaced by Directive

2009/28)

•  Directive 2008/101/EC to include aviation in the EU ETS •  Directive 2002/91/EC on the energy performance of buildings •  Directive 2003/96/EC on taxation of energy products •  Regulation 842/2006/EC on certain flourinated greenhouse

gases (and related technical regulations)

Other European Legislation

•  Directive 2009/31/EC on carbon capture and storage •  Changes to Fuel Quality Directive and Energy Performance of

Buildings Directive •  Effort Sharing Decision (406/2009/EC) – Irish target: -20%

reduction in emissions

•  2000: National Climate Change Strategy launched •  ‘Business as usual not an option’ •  Key initiatives in NCCS:

–  Carbon energy taxation –  Use of emissions trading –  Measures supportive of ending coal-firing at Moneypoint –  Fuel switching to low and zero carbon fuels –  Livestock reductions and lower fertiliser use –  Fuel efficiency, demand management and modal shift in transport –  Energy efficiency in construction –  Adjustment of the new house grant

•  Excise relief for biofuels •  Domestic emissions trading linked with EU ETS •  Carbon tax abandoned September 2004 •  Moneypoint still open, retrofit approved •  Back to ‘business-as-usual’?

•  April 2007: National Climate Change Strategy •  Projected emissions: 80 MtCO2E •  Kyoto target: 63 MtCO2E •  Reduction of 17 MtCO2E required

•  Energy: ETS, renewable energy •  Transport: Transport 21, car technology improvements,

support for biofuels •  Residential: Building Regulations amendments •  Industry: ETS, voluntary Large Industry Energy Network,

support for bioheat and CHP •  Agriculture and Forestry: CAP reform, afforestation •  Waste: diversion of biodegradable waste, landfill gas

capture •  Public Sector: CFL bulbs, energy savings by OPW, carbon

offsets for air travel, biomass heating in schools

•  Flexible Mechanisms –  3.6 MtCO2E purchase –  Anticipated annual cost of €54 million

•  Climate Change Commission •  Annual Implementation Status Report (replaced by carbon

budgets) •  EPA to prepare emissions reports and projections •  New Climate Change Strategy to be prepared

•  Environmental Protection Agency Act 1992 (as amended by Protection of the Environment Act 1992)

•  Sustainable Energy Act 2002

•  European Communities (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading) Regulations 2004 (SI 437/2004)

•  Kyoto Protocol Flexible Mechanisms Regulations 2006 (SI 244/2006)

•  European Communities (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading) (Amendment) Regulations 2005 (SI 706/2005)

•  Building Regulations (Amendment) Regulations 2005 (SI 873/2005)

•  European Communities (Energy Performance of Buildings) Regulations 2006 (SI 666/2006)

•  Building Regulations (Amendment) Regulations 2007 (SI 854/2007)

•  Planning and Development Regulations 2007 (SI 83/2007)

•  Planning and Development Regulations 2008 (SI 235/2008)

•  Carbon Fund Act 2007 •  Motor Vehicle (Duties and Licences) (No. 2) Act 2008 •  Planning and Development (Amendment) Act 2009 •  Energy (Biofuel Obligation and Miscellaneous Provisions)

Act 2010 •  Private Members Bills

Ireland: Carbon Budget 2010

•  Carbon levy: €15 per tonne of carbon dioxide •  Framework for Climate Change Bill

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Government: Climate Change Bill

•  Target: average 3% annual reduction on 1990 to 2020; 80% by 2050

•  National Climate Change Strategy: statutory basis •  Carbon Budget: also statutory basis •  Climate Change Committee: statutory, high level experts •  Change Change Adaptation: statutory, 8 year cycle •  Domestic Carbon Offsetting/Trading •  Monitoring, Reporting and Statutory Obligations

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Joint Committee: Climate Change Bill

•  Target: 20% reduction on 2005 by 2020; 30% if successor to Kyoto Protocol

•  Office of Climate Change and Renewable Energy: part of Department of An Taoiseach

•  National Climate Change Strategy: annual, by Taoiseach

•  Climate Change Commission: independent

•  Climate Change Dividend Fund: revenue from auctions, taxes

•  Offset schemes: including forest carbon offsets

•  Risk assessment: every 5 years

•  Climate change statements: from significant public authorities and bodies

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•  2001: 31%

•  2002: 29%

•  2003: 25%

•  2004: 23.7%

•  2005: 26.7%

•  2006: 25.6%

•  2007: 25%

•  2008: 3.99%

•  2009: 2.23%

Influences on the Future

•  Better understanding of sustainability issues •  Economic recession •  Smaller-scale agreements between groups of states •  Increasing media scrutiny and hostile public comment

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Possible Future Responses

•  Voluntary industry schemes •  Public procurement criteria •  Expansion of ETS •  Public awareness campaigns •  Product labelling •  Financial instruments: carbon taxes & subsidies •  Individual carbon credits (‘carbon rationing’)

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The Future

•  UNFCCC process in trouble? •  Bilateral and small-scale multilateral treaties? •  Climate Change Act 201x?

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