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Implications from Cancún on climate change and agriculture
&Climate Change Work at FAO
Peter Holmgren
Director, Climate, Energy and Tenure Division
16 May 2011
Peter Holmgren, FAO
3 November 2009
Cancún Agreement – selected points
• Formal recognition that current emissions pledges need to rise
• Decision on Long-Term Cooperative Action, including:
– Enhanced action on adaptation (Cancun Adaptation Framework)
– Enhanced action on mitigation:
• improved assessments nationally and internationally,
• registry of nationally appropriate mitigation actions)
• REDD+ (includes, potentially, mitigation actions related to all types of forests, i.e.
in the agriculture–forest interface)
– Finance (Green Fund, 100 b$/year by 2020 for developing countries against
climate impact and for low-carbon development. World Bank to be interim
trustee)
• Extension of Kyoto protocol was postponed
• Agriculture work programme was postponed
Two Goals of Our Time
1. Achieving Food Security– 1 billion hungry
– Food production to increase 70% by 2050
– Adaptation to Climate Change critical
2. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change– ”2 degree goal” requires major emission cuts
– Agriculture and Land use = 30% of emissions..
– ..and needs to be part of the solution
A Sustainable Development landscape
National ->International
National ->Local
Climate
UNFCCC“Carbon”
Biodiversity
CBD“Species”
Food Security
WSFS“Calories”
+Human rights,Health, Trade, Education, .....
LOCALREALITIES
GLOBAL OBJECTIVES
C l i m a t e – s m a r t A g r i c u l t u r e
Climate-smart Agriculture
Agriculture that sustainably:
• increases productivity
• increases resilience (adaptation)
• reduces/removes GHGs
AND
• enhances achievement of national food security and development goals
MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES!
Climate-smart agriculture – Key work areas
Always inter-departmental and cross-cutting:
• FAO-Adapt
– Framework Programme on Climate Change Adaptation
• MICCA
– Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture
– Assessment of Emissions and Mitigation Potentials in Agriculture Sectors
• MOSAICC
– Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
• EX-ACT
– Incorporating climate impact into agriculture investments
• REDD+
• Coordinated response to UNFCCC
FAO-Adapt
• New framework programme for up-scaling FAO’s support to member countries in climate change adaptation.
• Defines priority adaptation themes and actions, where FAO can provide technical and policy support
• Strengthens FAO’s internal coordination and cross-departmental work on adaptation
• Facilitates resource mobilization, especially climate finance
• Prepared as a joint effort of the whole of FAO
FAO-Adapt and the FAO Strategic Framework
SO A
SO B
SO E
SO D
SO H
SO F
SO G
SO L
SO I
SO K
SO C
MICCA
• Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture
• 5 year programme, 2010-2014
• Goal: Support developing countries in contributing to mitigation of climate change & move towards climate-smart agriculture
– improve global information on GHG emissions from agriculture
– accurately assess potentials of mitigation
– piloting mitigation mechanisms
• Conservation Agriculture project in Uluguru Mountains, Tanzania with CARE International, start May 2011
• Smallholder East Africa Dairy Development (EADD) Project in Western Kenya with Heifer International, ICRAF and ILRI, start May 2011
• Smallholder agro-ecological/landscape management project at forest-intensive maize cultivation land use border, Loja, South Ecuador with Heifer Ecuador, planned for Autumn 2011
• Smallholder integrated food energy system project in Vietnam with SNV, CCRD and FAO Bioenergy group, planned for Autumn 2011
• Smallholder rice project in Cambodia or other country
Key knowledge gaps
• Impact OF agriculture sectors ON climate
– assessment of emissions and mitigation potentials, part of MICCA
– land based and life-cycle based assessments
– strong IPCC connection
– links to investments in agriculture
• Impact ON agriculture sectors OF climate
– MOSAICC, improved and accessible models
– downscaling projections and assessments of climate, hydrology, crop productivity
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Objective: Increase agricultural production and productivityTargets: 2.5 millions farmersMeans: improve rice and maize crops ( vouchers : improved seeds, inputs), stop residue burning, adoption of improved practises with betteragronomic practises and better nutrient managementDuration of carbon balance appraisal: 7+13 years
T Eq-CO2 MaizeIrrigatio
nIrrigated
riceInputs Total
Carbon balance (CB)
-12.616.561 235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -5.821.604
CB.ha-1 -5,5
CB.an-1.ha-1 -0,28
T Eq-CO2 MaizeIrrigatio
nIrrigated
riceInputs Total
Carbon blance (CB) -8.353.397 235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -1.558.440
CB.ha-1 -1,5
CB.an-1.ha-1 -0,07
27%
29%
29%
15%
conventionnel
improved 1: agronomic+nutrient+no tillage+noburning
Improved 2 : nutrient+no burning
Improved 3: nutrient
Accelerated Food Security Project in the United Republic of Tanzania
REDD+
• UN-REDD Programme
– FAO – UNDP – UNEP
– 29 member countries, 12 programme countries
– Global Programme
– 150 M$ portfolio, multi-donor trust fund
• REDD+ Partnership
– Secretariat services
– Database on REDD+ finance
• Other REDD+ Programmes/Contributions
– Sida, FAO-FIN, Norway-Mexico, CBFF
UN-REDD Countries
The right REDD+ focus?
No. ‘It’s the agriculture, stupid’
FAO-Adapt
FAO climate change work areas
Adaptation Mitigation
UNFCCC/
IPCC
Food
security
REDD+
MOSAICCMICCA
GHG
Assess-
ment
EX-ACT
Main focus
Concluding remarks
• Climate-smart agriculture– political momentum is growing
– not yet in UNFCCC negotiations
– but some key events planned for 2011
– address multiple development objectives
– combine finance streams
• FAO’s role– climate change concerns all aspects of FAO’s work
– opportunity to re-emphasize existing goals
– address knowledge and capacity gaps
– pilots and demonstrations
– seek up-scaling through existing institutions in agriculture sectors