Climate Change: Projected impacts on water resources in the Arab region and adaptation options

Hamed AssafWater Resources SectionSustainable Development & Productivity Division

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Outline

• Climate change threats to the region

• Drivers of water scarcity

• Why is the Arab region water poor?

• Climate change impact on water resources

• How are Arab countries adapting?

• Adaptation optionsSeptember 15, 2010

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Main threats of climate change to the Arab region

• Intensification of water scarcity

• Rising sea levels

• Increased storm activities

• A move into a new climate regime, where all the above become the norm

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Water Scarcity: a matter of supply and demand

• Water scarcity limits socio-economic development and threatens ecosystems.

• Water scarcity is a result of imbalance between supply and demand.

• Historically water scarcity has intensified under the pressure of increasing demand.

• Climate change will exacerbate water scarcity by reducing supply and increasing demand.

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Water scarcity– a historical perspective

• Water scarcity is a fact of life in the Arab region since the dawn of civilization.

• Water scarcity was the catalyst for the birth of human civilization in the region.

• The region witnessed extreme episodes of droughts:

– 300 year drought that led to the demise of the Akkadian civilization in Northern Syria more than 4000 years ago.

– Severe droughts in the seventh century.– Periodic droughts (and floods) in the Nile.

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Intensification of water scarcity in modern times

• Explosive growth in population

• Equally excessive growth in demand per capita driven by:– Improved living standards– Urbanization– Decreased family size

• Expansion of agriculture especially in naturally drier areas (exhaustion of both blue and green water).

• Increased competition over shared water resources

• Serious decline in the quantity and quality of renewable and non-renewable water resources.

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Water scarcity in the Arab region

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Total renewable freshwater(km3/y)

 Per capita renewable freshwater(m3/y)

Country 1970 2000 2030

Jordan 0.9 555 183 96

Lebanon 4.8 1944 1373 1015

Syria 46.1 7367 2848 1576

Algeria 14.3 1040 472 318

Egypt 86.8 2460 1279 872

Libya 0.6 302 113 71

Morocco 30 1960 1004 680

Tunisia 4.1 800 433 321

Source: ESCWA 2003: Water scarcity in the Arab world

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Why is our region water poor?

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The atmosphere is a very active engine that continually move heat and moisture around the Earth

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•Under current climatic conditions the mid-latitudes receive substantially less precipitation than the equator and the high latitudes.

•Regional distribution of precipitation is highly influenced by topography.

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The Arab region continually loses moisture to other regions

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Climate change will exacerbate this disparity in the distribution of global moisture

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The wet will get wetter and the dry will get drier: a dreadful projection for the Arab region

September 15, 2010 Source: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Difference between the 2081-2100 average and the 1950-2000 average (A1B - GFDL CM2.1 model)

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Damascus 33.50°N

Mecca 21.43°N

Nairobi 1.30°N

20°N

Ataturk Dam 37.47°N40°N

Equator

Addis Ababa 9.03°N

1950-2000 Precipitation 21st Precipitation Change

Inches of liquid water per year

30°N

10°N

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Impact of climate change on water resources will vary in the region

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Projected impacts of climate change

• Northern Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean and the headwaters of the Euphrates and the Tigris will likely undergo major reduction in precipitation. (northerly shift in the Westerlies).

• In contrast the southern regions and the headwater of the Nile will likely receive more precipitation (strengthening of the Monsoon).

• Precipitation intensity will likely increase in the southern regions, while it will possibly undergo no significant changes in the northern areas.

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Projected impacts of climate change

• Length of drier periods will likely increase particularly in the northern and mid regions – reduction of rain fed agricultural and grazing land.

• Demand will likely increase particularly in agriculture due to higher evaporation rates and reduction in soil moisture.

• The ratio of snowfall in total precipitation will likely decrease and snowpacks will likely melt earlier (loss of natural storage).

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How are Arab countries adapting?

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Status of adaptation to climate change

• Arab countries at the formal and popular are now well aware of the issue of climate change and to a lesser degree its potential impact on water resources.

• National communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA).

• NGOs and international organizations.

• Action is still lagging behind awareness. Why?– Uncertainties about climatic projections and threats– Lack of capacity and resources– Political will.– Other priorities.

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Adaptation to climate change

• Adaptation to climate change can leverage existing policies and measures to deal with water scarcity.

• Addressing water scarcity has varied in the region depending on:– Level of water scarcity– Financial resources– Historical dependency on agriculture– Dependency on external water resources

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Current approaches to managing water scarcity

• Countries with less water scarcity and historically large agrarian population (Egypt, Syria, and Iraq)

– Agricultural polices dominates water resources management

– High level of development of water resources infrastructure

– Competition over shared water resources with upstream countries

– Wastewater reuse has relatively low priority September 15, 2010

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• Countries with severe water scarcity yet with strong financial resources (GCC)

– Adoption of desalination as a strategic water supply– Food policy: food importation and securing land

and fishing rights abroad. – Agricultural activities are curtailed (despite earlier

attempts to secure food security in some countries)– Wastewater reuse is increasingly gaining

momentum.September 15, 2010

Current approaches to managing water scarcity

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• Countries with serious water scarcity and modest financial resources (Jordan and Tunis)

– Transition to more productive agriculture.– Wastewater reuse constitutes a large share of

water used in agriculture.– Water transfer from agriculture to urban users– Food policy: more reliance on imported food.

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Current approaches to managing water scarcity

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Adaptation to climate change - approach

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) – Maintain a balance among water’s economic, social and environmental dimensions.

Adaptive management – (monitoring, evaluating and adjusting to changing conditions)

Energy – crucial in securing water supplies (pumping, groundwater abstraction, desalination and treatment, potential of renewable energy resources).

Non-water sectors – agriculture, trade, tourism. September 15, 2010

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Adaptation to climate change – approach

• Balance “soft” with “hard” solutions

• Soft solutions are flexible, cost effective, socially acceptable and environmentally friendly.

• Although less preferable, hard solutions are necessary to provide reliable and secure water supplies.

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Ada

ptat

ion

to c

limat

e ch

ange

opt

ions

• Agricultural policies and practices

• Diversify economy and develop human capital to reduce dependency on agriculture and water intensive industries.

• Food security and importation policies.

• Regional trade – Energy and agricultural and water intensive products

• Development of Renewable energy resources

• Social programs to influence population growth

• Urban planning

Water resources infrastructure (storage & transfer)

Demand management (pricing, awareness, efficiency)

Sectorial water transfer and markets

Regional agreements on shared water resources

Laws and regulations

Wastewater reuse

Desalination

Climate change monitoring

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